Impact of ambient ozone exposure on death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in Minhang District, Shanghai / 环境与职业医学

Background Ozone (O3) pollution has gradually become a primary problem of air pollution in recent years. Conducting epidemiological studies on the correlation between O3 concentration variation and risk of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases can provide reference data for O3 risk assessment and related policy making. Objective To quantitatively evaluate the effects of O3 exposure on mortalities of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases among residents in Minhang District, Shanghai. Methods Data of mortalities of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, air pollutants, and meteorological factors in Minhang District of Shanghai from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2021 were collected. Associations between O3 concentration and the mortalities due to total cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, coronary heart disease, and stroke were analyzed by generalized additive models with a quasi Poisson distribution with different lag patterns, such as current day effect (lag0), single-day lag effects (lag1-lag3), and cumulative lag effects (lag01-lag03). The subgroup analyses of age, sex, and season were conducted. Furthermore, temperature was divided into low, middle, and high levels based on the 25th percentile (P25) and the 75th percentile (P75) to perform hierarchical analyses. Increased excess risks (ER) of death from target diseases caused by a 10 µg·m−3 increase in daily maximum 8 h concentration of O3 (O3-8 h) and their 95% confidence intervals (CI) were used to indicate the effects of O3. Results The associations between O3 and the risks of death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were statistically significant at lag2, lag3, lag02, and lag03 (P<0.05), with the greatest effect size observed at lag03. The ER values of death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases in general population, male residents, and people aged 65 years and older, from coronary heart disease in male residents, and from stroke in general population increased by 1.02% (95%CI: 0.36%, 1.69%), 1.40% (95%CI: 0.47%, 2.34%), 0.87% (95%CI: 0.19%, 1.55%), 1.96% (95%CI: 0.49%, 3.44%), and 1.02% (95%CI: 0.07%, 1.98%) for a 10 µg·m−3 increase in O3-8 h concentration at lag03, respectively. During the warm season (from April 1 to September 30), the ER values of death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and coronary heart disease per 10 µg·m−3 increase in O3 were 1.18% (95%CI: 0.33%, 3.33%) and 2.69% (95%CI: 0.39%, 5.03%), while the O3 effect was only statistically significant on cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases during the cold season (from October 1 to March 31 next year). At the middle and high temperature levels, the ER values of death from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases increased by 1.63% (95%CI: 0.32%, 2.96%) and 1.14% (95%CI: 0.17%, 2.12%) respectively. The two-pollutant models showed similar results after including other pollutants (carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, fine particulate matter, or inhalable particulate matter). Conclusion Ambient O3 pollution may increase the mortality risks of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, coronary heart disease, and stroke in Minhang District of Shanghai.

Prediction of brucellosis incidence in Urumqi / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To explore the application of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model in the prediction of brucellosis in Urumqi, and to use this model to predict the incidence trend of brucellosis in Urumqi. Methods The monthly incidence data of brucellosis in Urumqi from January 2010 to December 2021 were selected to construct the ARIMA prediction model. The prediction effect of the model was evaluated by mean standard deviation (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). The monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi in 2022 was predicted by the constructed model. Results The incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi had obvious seasonal distribution, and the cases were concentrated from May to July. ARIMA(1,1,1)(1,0,1)12 was the optimal prediction model, with RMSE=0.883 and MAE=5.24. The monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi in 2022 was predicted to be 7, 4, 4, 6, 9, 9, 10, 7, 7, 5, 5, and 5 cases, respectively. Conclusion ARIMA model can well fit and predict the monthly incidence of brucellosis in Urumqi and provide a basis for the monitoring and prevention of brucellosis.

Tendência da mortalidade por tuberculose e relação com o índice sóciodemográfico no Brasil entre 2005-2019 / Tuberculosis mortality trends and the correlation with the socio-demographic index in Brazil between 2010 and 2019

Resumo O objetivo do artigo é analisar a tendência da taxa de mortalidade padronizada (TMP) por tuberculose e sua correlação com o status de desenvolvimento no Brasil. Estudo ecológico de séries temporais que analisou dados de óbitos por tuberculose notificados entre 2005 e 2019 de todos os estados. Os dados foram extraídos do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade, do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística e do estudo da Carga Global de Doenças. A tendência temporal foi analisada pela regressão de Prais-Winsten. A análise da correlação de Spearman entre a TMP e o índice sociodemográfico (socio-demographic index - SDI) também foi realizada. De 2005 a 2019, foram registrados 68.879 óbitos por tuberculose no Brasil. A taxa média de mortalidade foi de 2,3 óbitos por 100.000 habitantes. A tendência decrescente da TMP por tuberculose foi observada no Brasil e em todas as regiões. Verificou-se correlação negativa significativa entre o SDI e a TMP. A maioria dos estados apresentou tendência decrescente e nenhum deles teve tendência crescente. Uma relação inversa foi verificada entre o SDI e a mortalidade por tuberculose.

Abstract The scope of this article is to analyze the trend of the standardized mortality rate (SMR) for tuberculosis and its correlation with the developmental status in Brazil. An ecological time series study was conducted to analyze data of deaths from tuberculosis reported between 2005 and 2019 in all states. Data were extracted from the Mortality Information System, the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, and the Global Burden of Disease study. The temporal trend was analyzed using Prais-Winsten regression. Spearman's correlation analysis between SMR and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI) was also performed. From 2005 to 2019, 68,879 deaths from tuberculosis were recorded in Brazil. The average mortality rate was 2.3 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. The decreasing trend of SMR due to tuberculosis was observed in Brazil and in all regions. There was a significant negative correlation between SDI and TMP. TMP due to tuberculosis revealed a decreasing trend in Brazil and in all regions. Most states showed a decreasing trend and none of them had an increasing trend. An inverse relationship was found between developmental status and mortality due to tuberculosis.

Impact of COVID-19 on tuberculosis notifications

ABSTRACT The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted the control of diseases by overwhelming healthcare systems, and tuberculosis (TB) notifications may have been affected. This study aimed to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on TB notifications in the Sao Paulo State. This is a retrospective study examining TB notifications extracted from the TBweb database (Jan 2015 to Dec 2022). We conducted an interrupted time series (ITS) analysis of TB notifications using the declaration of the COVID-19 pandemic as the interrupting event (Bayesian causal impact analysis). A total of 177,103 notifications of TB incident cases were analyzed, revealing a significant decrease in 2020 (13%) and in 2021 (9%), which lost significance in 2022. However, changes were not associated with population density or the area of the regions. Future analyses of the effects of TB underdiagnosis might help describe the impact of underreporting on future TB incidence and mortality.

Tuberculosis incidence in Brazil: time series analysis between 2001 and 2021 and projection until 2030 / Incidência de tuberculose no Brasil: análise de série temporal entre 2001 e 2021 e projeção até 2030

ABSTRACT Objective: To assess the incidence of tuberculosis in Brazil between 2001 and 2022 and estimate the monthly incidence forecast until 2030. Methods: This is a time-series study based on monthly tuberculosis records from the Notifiable Diseases Information System and official projections of the Brazilian population. The monthly incidence of tuberculosis from 2001 to 2022 was evaluated using segmented linear regression to identify trend breaks. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (Sarima) was used to predict the monthly incidence from 2023 to 2030, deadline for achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Results: There was a decrease in incidence between January/2001 and December/2014 (4.60 to 3.19 cases-month/100,000 inhabitants; β=-0.005; p<0.001), followed by an increase between January/2015 and March /2020 (β=0.013; p<0.001). There was a sharp drop in cases in April/2020, with the onset of the pandemic, and acceleration of the increase in cases since then (β=0.025; p<0.001). A projection of 124,245 cases in 2030 was made, with an estimated incidence of 4.64 cases-month/100,000 inhabitants, levels similar to those in the 2000s. The Sarima model proved to be robust, with error of 4.1% when removing the pandemic period. Conclusion: The decreasing trend in tuberculosis cases was reversed from 2015 onwards, a period of economic crisis, and was also impacted by the pandemic when there was a reduction in records. The Sarima model can be a useful forecasting tool for epidemiological surveillance. Greater investments in prevention and control need to be made to reduce the occurrence of tuberculosis, in line with the SDGs.

RESUMO Objetivo: Avaliar a incidência de tuberculose no Brasil entre 2001 e 2022 e estimar a previsão de incidência mensal até 2030. Métodos: Trata-se de estudo de série temporal que partiu de registros mensais de tuberculose do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação e projeções oficiais da população brasileira. Avaliou-se a incidência mensal de tuberculose entre 2001 e 2022 por meio de regressão linear segmentada para identificar quebras de tendências. Utilizou-se o modelo autorregressivo integrado de médias móveis sazonais (Sarima) para prever a incidência mensal de 2023 a 2030, prazo para alcançar os objetivos de desenvolvimento sustentável (ODS). Resultados: Observou-se diminuição da incidência entre janeiro/2001 e dezembro/2014 (de 4,60 para 3,19 casos-mês/100 mil habitantes; β=-0,005; p<0,001), seguida de aumento entre janeiro/2015 e março/2020 (β=0,013; p<0,001). Houve queda abrupta de casos em abril/2020, com início da pandemia e aceleração do aumento de casos desde então (β=0,025; p<0,001). Projetaram-se 124.245 casos de tuberculose em 2030, com incidência estimada em 4,64 casos-mês/100 mil habitantes, patamares da década de 2000. O modelo Sarima mostrou-se robusto, com erro de 4,1% ao remover o período pandêmico. Conclusão: A tendência decrescente nos casos de tuberculose foi revertida a partir de 2015, período de crises econômicas, e foi também impactada pela pandemia quando houve redução nos registros. O modelo Sarima pode ser uma ferramenta de previsão útil para a vigilância epidemiológica. Maiores investimentos na prevenção e controle precisam ser aportados para reduzir a ocorrência de tuberculose, em linha com os ODS.

Tendência da taxa de mortalidade por câncer de mama em mulheres com 20 anos ou mais no Brasil, 2005-2019 / Trend in breast cancer mortality rate among women aged 20 years or older in Brazil, 2005-2019

Resumo O objetivo é analisar a tendência da taxa de mortalidade por câncer de mama e sua correlação com o status de desenvolvimento socioeconômico no Brasil. Estudo ecológico de séries temporais realizado nos 26 estados, Distrito Federal e regiões do Brasil. As fontes de dados foram o Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade (número de óbitos), o Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (população residente) e o estudo da Carga Global de Doenças (socio-demographic index - SDI). Foram usados dados de 2005 a 2019. A tendência foi analisada pelos modelos de regressão de Prais-Winsten. A relação entre a taxa de mortalidade e o SDI foi analisada pelo coeficiente de correlação de Spearman. No período do estudo ocorrerem 207.683 óbitos por câncer de mama. A taxa padronizada de mortalidade média foi de 19,95 óbitos por 100.000 mulheres no Brasil. O Brasil e todas as regiões apresentaram tendência crescente da mortalidade. Do total de estados, 22 apresentaram tendência crescente. Verificou-se relação positiva entre a taxa de mortalidade e o SDI. A taxa de mortalidade padronizada por câncer de mama apresentou tendência crescente no Brasil, em todas as regiões e na maioria das unidades da federação. Verificou-se associação direta entre mortalidade e SDI, indicando maior magnitude em regiões mais desenvolvidas.

Abstract The aim is to analyze the trend in breast cancer mortality rates and its correlation with the socioeconomic development status in Brazil. It involved an ecological time series study carried out in the 26 units of the federation, Federal District and regions of Brazil. Data sources included the Mortality Information System (number of deaths), the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (resident population) and the study of the Global Burden of Disease (Socio-demographic Index - SDI). Data from 2005 to 2019 were used. The trend was analyzed using Prais-Winsten regression models. The relationship between the mortality rate and the SDI was analyzed using Spearman's correlation coefficient. During the study period, 207,683 deaths from breast cancer occurred. The average standardized mortality rate was 19.95 deaths per 100,000 women in Brazil. All the regions of Brazil showed an increasing trend in mortality. Of the total federative units, 22 showed an increasing trend. There was a positive relationship between the mortality rate and the SDI. The standardized mortality rate for breast cancer showed an increasing trend in Brazil, in all regions and in most states. There was a direct association between mortality and SDI, indicating a greater magnitude in more developed regions.

Desigualdades regionais na enumeração dos registros de óbitos fetais nos sistemas de informações sobre estatísticas vitais no Brasil / Regional inequalities in the enumeration of stillbirth records in information systems on vital statistics in Brazil / Desigualdades regionales en la enumeración de los registros de muertes fetales en los sistemas de información sobre estadísticas vitales en Brasil

Resumo Este estudo tem por objetivo analisar a variação do número de óbitos fetais informados entre o Sistema de Estatísticas Vitais do Registro Civil (RC) e o Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade (SIM) e comparar a tendência da taxa de mortalidade fetal (TMF) de ambos os sistemas no Brasil, para o período 2009-2019. A variação percentual (VP) foi analisada por meio da comparação entre as fontes de dados para os óbitos fetais precoces (<28 semanas) e tardios (≥28 semanas). Os clusters de unidades da federação foram obtidos pelo método k-means. Aplicou-se a regressão linear generalizada de Prais-Winsten na análise da tendência da TMF. O SIM demonstrou percentual de captação 27,7% superior ao RC no período estudado. Houve maior número de óbitos fetais informados no SIM para o Brasil e regiões, em ambos os estratos de óbitos. As regiões Norte e Nordeste apresentaram as maiores VP em oposição às regiões mais desenvolvidas do país, Sudeste e Sul, onde verificou-se uma convergência de 95%. Apesar da redução da VP na década analisada, as estimativas de tendência da TMF permaneceram subestimadas no RC. Conclui-se que a captação dos óbitos fetais foi maior no SIM, sobretudo nas regiões Norte e Nordeste, reconhecidas como as mais vulneráveis do país.

Abstract This study aimed to analyze the variation in the number of stillbirths reported between the vital statistics system of the Civil Registry (RC) and the Mortality Information System (SIM) as well as to compare the trend in stillbirth rates (SBR) in both systems in Brazil between 2009 and 2019. Percent change (PC) was analyzed by comparing data sources for early (<28 weeks) and late (≥28 weeks) stillbirths. Clusters of Federation Units were obtained using the k-means method. Prais-Winsten generalized linear regression was applied in the analysis of the SBR trend. The SIM showed a percentage of uptake 27.7% higher than RC in the period. A higher number of fetal deaths were reported on the SIM for Brazil and its regions, in both death strata. The North and Northeast regions presented the highest PC, as opposed to the most developed regions of the country, Southeast and South, where there was a convergence of 95%. Despite the reduction in PC in the decade analyzed, the SBR trend estimates remained underestimated in the RC. The conclusion, that the capture of fetal deaths was higher in the SIM, demonstrates the need for improvements in civilian registration of stillbirths, especially in the North and Northeast regions, recognized as the most vulnerable in the country.

Resumen Este estudio tuvo como objetivo analizar la variación en el número de muertes fetales notificadas entre el sistema de estadísticas vitales del Registro Civil (RC) y el Sistema de Información de Mortalidad (SIM) y comparar la tendencia de la Tasa de Mortalidad Fetal (TMF) de ambos sistemas en Brasil entre 2009 y 2019. El cambio porcentual (CP) se analizó comparando fuentes de datos para muertes fetales tempranas (< 28 semanas) y tardías (≥ 28 semanas). Los conglomerados de unidades de la federación se obtuvieron mediante el método de k-means. Se aplicó la regresión lineal generalizada Prais-Winsten en el análisis de la tendencia TMF. El SIM mostró un porcentaje de captación 27,7 % superior al del RC en el período. Hubo mayor número de muertes fetales reportadas en el SIM para Brasil y regiones, en ambos estratos de muerte. Las regiones Norte y Noreste tuvieron el CP más alto en comparación con las regiones más desarrolladas del país, Sudeste y Sur, donde hubo convergencia del 95 %. A pesar de la reducción del CP en la década analizada, las estimaciones de tendencia de la TMF permanecieron subestimadas en el RC. Se concluye que la captura de las defunciones fetales fue mayor en el SIM, demostrando la necesidad de mejoras en el registro civil de las defunciones fetales, especialmente en las regiones Norte y Nordeste, reconocidas como las más vulnerables del país.

Recurrent Quantification Analysis Based Study of Wide-Field Calcium Imaging Data in Relation to Brain's Wake/Sleep Condition

Wide-Field Calcium Images (WFCI) directly reflect neuronal excitation, but their poor frame rate could be a drawback for time series analysis. This work was aimed at exploring the diagnostic capability retained by a time series obtained from calcium imaging data. To that purpose, we analyzed publicly available data from 2.88 hour continuous recordings of calcium images obtained from seven mice at different wake/sleep stages. Data were obtained from the Physionet portal and were submitted to Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA). The association between retrosplenial and parietal areas was also assessed. Nonlinear RQA analysis allowed to identify the right retrosplenial and parietal areas as particularly sensitive to changes in sleep walking condition. Specifically, our results suggested that the RQA feature lmean decreases in non-REM sleep_1 stage as compared to waking stage. Sleep (both sleep_1 stage and REM) apparently elicits an increase in the association between retrosplenial and parietal areas. Overall, these results suggest that RQA and association analysis are appropriate to assess modifications associated to changes in brain condition, in spite of the low sampling rate of WFCI signals.

Las Imágenes de Calcio de Campo Ancho (Wide-Field Calcium Images, WFCI) reflejan directamente la excitación neuronal, pero su escasa resolución temporal pudiera resultar un impedimento para el análisis de series temporales. El presente trabajo tuvo por finalidad explorar la capacidad diagnostica que retiene una serie temporal extraída de imágenes de calcio. Para ello, se estudió una base de datos disponible en la red que contiene registros de 2.88 horas de duración de imágenes de calcio correspondientes a 7 ratones transgénicos a diferentes estadios de sueño/vigilia. Los datos fueron descargados del portal Physionet y sometidos a Análisis de Cuantificación Recurrente (Recurrent Quantification Analysis, RQA). La asociación entre las áreas retrosplenial y parietal derechas fue también evaluada. El análisis no lineal mediante RQA permitió identificar las áreas retrosplenial y parietal derechas como zonas particularmente sensibles a cambios en el estado de sueño/vigilia. Específicamente, nuestros resultados sugieren que el índice l mean se redujo en el estadio 1 de sueño no REM en comparación con el estado de vigilia. El estado de sueño, tanto REM como no-REM aparentemente induce un reforzamiento en la apreciación entre las áreas retrosplenial y parietal derechas. En su conjunto, estos resultados apuntan que el análisis de RQA y de asociación entre áreas son pertinentes para sensar las modificaciones asociadas a cambios en el estado del cerebro, a pesar de la baja resolución temporal de las señales WFCI.

Comparison of exponential smoothing and ARIMA time series models for forecasting COVID-19 cases: a secondary data analysis

Background: In order to manage outbreaks and plan resources, health systems must be capable of accurately projecting COVID-19 case patterns. Health systems can effectively predict future illness patterns by using mathematical and statistical modelling of infectious diseases. Different methods have been used with comparatively good accuracy for various prediction goals in medical sciences. Some illustrations are provided by statistical techniques intended to forecast epidemic cases. In order to increase healthcare systems readiness, this study aimed to identify the most accurate models for COVID-19 with a high global prevalence of positive cases. Methods: Exponential smoothing model and ARIMA were employed on time series datasets to forecast confirmed cases in upcoming months and hence the effectiveness of these predictive models were compared on the basis of performance measures. Results: It was seen that the ARIMA (0,0,2) model is best fitted with smaller values of performance measures (RMSE=4.46 and MAE=2.86) while employed on the recent dataset for short duration. Holt-Winters Exponential smoothing model was found to be more accurate to deal with a longer period of time series based data. Conclusions: The study revealed that working with recent dataset is more accurate to forecast the number of confirmed cases as compared to the data collected for longer period. The early-stage warnings through these predictive models would be beneficial for governments and health professionals to be prepared with the strategies at different levels for public health prevention.

Comparison of exponential smoothing and ARIMA time series models for forecasting COVID-19 cases: a secondary data analysis

Background: In order to manage outbreaks and plan resources, health systems must be capable of accurately projecting COVID-19 case patterns. Health systems can effectively predict future illness patterns by using mathematical and statistical modelling of infectious diseases. Different methods have been used with comparatively good accuracy for various prediction goals in medical sciences. Some illustrations are provided by statistical techniques intended to forecast epidemic cases. In order to increase healthcare systems readiness, this study aimed to identify the most accurate models for COVID-19 with a high global prevalence of positive cases. Methods: Exponential smoothing model and ARIMA were employed on time series datasets to forecast confirmed cases in upcoming months and hence the effectiveness of these predictive models were compared on the basis of performance measures. Results: It was seen that the ARIMA (0,0,2) model is best fitted with smaller values of performance measures (RMSE=4.46 and MAE=2.86) while employed on the recent dataset for short duration. Holt-Winters Exponential smoothing model was found to be more accurate to deal with a longer period of time series based data. Conclusions: The study revealed that working with recent dataset is more accurate to forecast the number of confirmed cases as compared to the data collected for longer period. The early-stage warnings through these predictive models would be beneficial for governments and health professionals to be prepared with the strategies at different levels for public health prevention.

Association between atmospheric particulate matters and outpatient visits for respiratory disorders in Jiaxing City of Zhejiang Province from 2019 to 2021： a time series analysis / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo explore the effect of exposure to atmospheric particulate matters on the outpatient visits of respiratory disorders in Jiaxing City，Zhejiang Province. MethodsDaily air pollutant monitoring data，meteorological data and outpatient visits of respiratory disorders in Jiaxing City from 2019 to 2021 were collected．A generalized additive model was applied to evaluate the effect and laggeel effect of the concentrations of atmospheric particulates for outpatient visits of respiratory disorders after adjusting for secular trend， day-of-the-week effect， holiday effect， and meteorological variables. ResultsThe daily average concentrations of PM2.5， PM10， O3 and NO2 exceeded the standard， and the proportion of days exceeding the standard was 3.4%， 1.3%， 11.0% and 0.8%， respectively. Every 10 μg·m-3 increase in PM2.5 concentration showed the strongest effects on the daily outpatient visits of respiratory disorders， adult and childhood respiratory disorders all on lag07 with ER（95%CI） being 2.29%（1.35%‒3.24%）， 2.31% （1.39%‒3.23%） and 2.65 % （1.36%‒3.96%）， respectively. The maximum ER of outpatient visits for respiratory disorders in children was higher than that in adults. Every 10 μg·m-3 increase in PM10 concentration showed the strongest effects on the daily outpatient visits of respiratory disorders on lag07， adult respiratory disorders on lag06 and childhood respiratory disorders on lag07 with ER（95%CI） being 1.42% （0.87%‒1.96%）， 1.49%（0.99%‒1.99%） and 1.61% （0.87%‒2.36%）， respectively. The results of double-pollutant model showed that the effect of atmospheric particulate reduced after O3 was introduced into the model. ConclusionThere are a short-term effect and a laggeel effect of atmospheric particulate on the outpatient visits of respiratory disorders. It is necessary to strengthen the health protection of the respiratory system of the population， especially the children.

Acute effects of NO2 on hospitalization risk of children with respiratory diseases in Foshan City / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To explore the acute effects of NO2 on children's respiratory hospitalization risk in Foshan City. Methods The daily average concentrations of six air pollutants such as NO2 and fine particulate matter, and meteorological data including average temperature and relative humidity in Foshan were collected from 2016 to 2019. Data on the daily number of children newly hospitalized for respiratory diseases (ECRH) in Foshan Women and Children Hospital were retrieved. Time series analysis was used to quantitatively evaluate the effect of daily NO2 concentration on the hospitalization risk of children with respiratory diseases. Results From 2016 to 2019, the average ECRH in the hospital was 10. The daily average concentrations of air pollutants NO2, PM2.5, PM10, and SO2 were 42.0 μg/m3, 35.3 μg/m3, 58.1 μg/m3, and 11.4 μg/m3, respectively. The air pressure, daily average temperature and relative humidity of atmosphere were 1008.4 Pa, 23.7℃ and 73.3%, respectively. ECRH was significantly correlated with the daily average concentration of NO2 (r=0.079, P3 increase of NO2 concentration in the single pollutant model, the excess risk of ECHR in the hospital increased by 1.22% (95% CI: 0.06%, 2.40%) and 1.37% (95% CI: 0.23%, 2.53%) in lag0 and Lag1 day, respectively. The strongest effect appeared in lag0:7 with the excess risk increasing by 1.70% (95% CI:0.12%, 3.31%). In the NO2 + SO2 + CO + O3_8h + PM2.5 and NO2 + SO2 + CO + O3_8h + PM10 multi-pollutant models, significance correlation still existed between the daily average NO2 concentration and ECHR in lag0, lag1 and lag0:1 to lag0:7. The strongest effect appeared in lag0:1, and the excess risks were 4.06% (95% CI: 1.83%, 6.34%) and 3.95% (95% CI: 1.85%, 6.09%), respectively. Dose-response relationship analysis showed a linear relationship between the daily average NO2 concentration and ECHR, and the excess risk of new hospitalization gradually increased with the increase of daily average NO2 concentration. Conclusion There was a significant correlation between NO2 concentration and hospitalization risk of children with respiratory diseases in Foshan City, which suggests that the government should further strengthen the prevention and control of air pollution.

Time-series analysis of association between air pollution and hospital outpatient visits in a district of Shanghai from 2015 to 2019 / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo explore the association between air pollutants and hospital outpatient visits in a district of Shanghai. MethodsDaily meteorological data， environmental data， data of outpatient visits to two secondary hospitals and two tertiary hospitals in this district from January 1， 2015 to December 31， 2019 were collected. A Poisson regression generalized linear model was used to analyze the exposure-response relationship between the air pollutants and hospital outpatient visits in this area. ResultsDuring the study period， the total number of outpatient visits in the included hospitals was 17 802 634， with an average daily total of （9 750±4 191） outpatient visits，and an average daily of （761±341） respiratory outpatient visits. In the lag effect of single pollutant model， when the concentration of air pollutant increased by 10 μg·m-3， PM2.5， SO2， NO2 had the maximum lag effect on the number of outpatient visits in the department of internal medicine for respiratory diseases on lag day 4， day 5 and day 7， respectively. And the RR values and 95%CI were 1.002 0（1.001 3‒1.002 6）， 1.0154（1.012 3‒1.018 5）， and 1.006 1（1.005 3‒1.006 9）， respectively. ConclusionThere is a exposure-response relationship between air pollutants and the number of outpatient visits in each department of the hospitals， and different pollutants have different degrees of lag effects.

Associations of ambient PM2.5 and O3 with human mortality: A time-series study in a city of central China / 环境与职业医学

Background Exposure to air pollutants O3 and PM2.5 is closely related to population mortality. Most of the domestic research findings are for residents in coastal areas, and less for those in the central and western regions. Objective To investigate the acute effects of O3 and PM2.5 on the mortality of residents in a city of central China. Methods Data were collected on atmospheric pollutants, meteorological data, and population mortality in a city of central China from January 1, 2015 to June 30, 2021. Meteorological data included daily average temperature, air pressure, and relative humidity. Atmospheric pollution data included daily mean concentrations of PM2.5, PM10, SO2, NO2, and CO and maximum 8 h O3. Generalized additive model with Poisson distribution was used for estimating the relationships between air pollutants (O3 and PM2.5) and population mortality, and further stratified by age, gender, and education. Results The daily maximum 8 h average concentration of O3 in the city during the study period was 94.38 μɡ·m−3 and the daily average concentration of PM2.5 was 55.56 μɡ·m−3. In the single-pollutant model, the correlations between O3 concentration and total deaths as well as deaths due to respiratory, circulatory, hypertension, coronary heart disease, and stroke were strongest at lag02, lag2, lag02, lag0, lag02, and lag0, and for every 10 μɡ·m−3 increase in concentration of O3, the associated ER (95%CI) values of daily mortality were increased by 0.09% (−0.08%–0.25%), 0.35% (0–0.71%), 0.43% (0.18%–0.68%), 0.45% (0.02%–0.91%), 0.59% (0.16%–1.02%), and 0.33% (0.01%–0.65%), respectively. The effect of O3 on total mortality was not statistically significant (P>0.05). The correlations between PM2.5 concentration and total deaths, as well as deaths due to respiratory, circulatory, hypertension, coronary heart disease, and stroke were strongest at lag1, lag5, lag01, lag05, lag04, and lag01, and for every 10 μɡ·m−3 increase in concentration of PM2.5, the associated ER (95%CI) values of daily mortality increased by 0.02% (−0.09–0.13%), 0.25% (0.01%–0.50%), 0.35% (0.16%–0.54%), 1.18% (0.59%–1.77%), 0.17% (−0.13%–0.40%), and 0.65% (0.38%–0.92%), respectively, with no statistically significant effects of PM2.5 on total mortality and mortality due to coronary heart disease (P>0.05). During warm season (from May to October), the ER (95%CI) values of total deaths per 10 μɡ·m−3 increase in O3 in male, people aged 6~65 years, people aged >65 years, and people below high school education were 0.46% (0.16%–0.75%), 0.38% (0.08%–0.68%), 0.41% (0.14%–0.66%), and 0.38% (0.14%–0.61%), respectively, while the O3 effect was not statistically significant (P>0.05) during cool season (from November to April). Conclusions Atmospheric pollutants (O3 and PM2.5) have acute effects on mortality in the city, with the elderly, people with less than a high school education, and those with circulatory disease being more sensitive to O3 and PM2.5 exposures.

Fluctuation analysis and prediction of intravenous medication dispensing workload based on time series analysis method / 药学实践与服务

Objective To explore the fluctuation characteristics of long-term doctor's order workload in pharmacy intravenous admixture services (PIVAS) and build a daily workload fluctuation prediction model and provide reference for the adjustment of PIVAS work mode. Methods Daily workload data of long-term doctor’s orders from PIVAS in the East Campus of Zhongshan Hospital affiliated to Fudan University from July 2020 to June 2021 were selected , and the time series analysis method was used to analyze the workload fluctuation characteristics and a prediction model was established. The accuracy of the model was verified by fitting parameters and prediction results. Results The fluctuation of PIVAS long-term doctor's daily workload data had the characteristics of periodicity, short-term slow rise and irregular variation. The Winters multiplier model was used to fit the series with R2 = 0.777, the significance value of Ljung-Box statistic value (P value) was 0.060, and the mean absolute error percentage between the fitted and actual values was 4.45%, indicating that the model fitting accuracy was high. The average relative deviation between the predicted and actual results was 3.81%, indicating that the model prediction was effective. Conclusion The model constructed in this study could be used for the analysis and prediction of long-term doctor's orders workload of PIVAS. However, because the workload of doctor's orders has fluctuations such as periodicity and irregular changes, it is necessary to adjust the working model according to the fluctuation characteristics of the workload and the prediction results to ensure the efficient operation of PIVAS.

Predictive analysis of the number of hospitalized patients with acute pancreatitis based on time series model / 中华胰腺病杂志

Objective:To predict and analyze the number of acute pancreatitis (AP) inpatients based on time series model, and to explore the predictive efficiency of the model.Methods:Clinical data of AP inpatients in the Affiliated Hospital of Southwest Medical University from January 2014 to December 2019 were collected. R software was used to collect the time series of AP inpatients, and the trend and seasonal characteristics of AP inpatients from 2014 to 2018 were analyzed. Furthermore, the autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) model was established through stationarity test, model ordering and model testing steps, and the best selected model was used to predict the monthly number of inpatients in 2019 to verify its prediction efficiency.Results:A total of 3 939 AP patients were included in the study. The most common etiology for AP was cholestrogenic (48.2%), followed by hyperacylglyceremia (36.3%). The peak age of hospitalization was from 40 to 60 years old. Time series analysis showed that the number of AP inpatients increased year by year. The highest peak of the disease was from February to March, followed by September to November; and there was seasonal variation and the incidence was relatively small in summer. The established original training set sequence did not pass the stationarity test ( P=0.061), so the ARIMA model was established after it was transformed into a stationarity sequence by first-order difference. According to the criterion of minimum AIC value, ARIMA(2, 1, 1)(1, 1, 1) 12 was selected as the best model. The model was used to predict the number of AP inpatients in 2019, showing that it could better fit the trend of onset time and had good short-term prediction effect. The mean root error and absolute error were 6.8790 and 4.7783, respectively. Conclusions:The number of AP inpatients increases year by year with seasonal changes. ARIMA model is effective in predicting the number of AP inpatients and can be used for short-term prediction.

Social inequalities in the temporal trend of mortality from sickle cell disease in Brazil, 1996-2019 / Desigualdades sociais na tendência temporal de mortalidade por doença falciforme no Brasil, 1996-2019 / Desigualdades sociales en la tendencia temporal de la mortalidad por enfermedad de células falciformes en Brasil, 1996-2019

Contrary to international trends, the mortality rate of sickle cell disease increased in Brazil after the implementation of the neonatal screening program, probably due to improving access to diagnosis. This study aimed to assess differences in the temporal trend of the mortality rate and median age at death from sickle cell disease in Brazil, considering implemented measures to expand diagnosis, and improve health care access in-country and in the international scenario. Time series were extracted from the Brazilian Mortality Information System from 1996 to 2019. Changes in the mortality rate and median age at death were verified via segmented regression models, which were stratified by sex, region of residence, and age. Most deaths occurred in non-white people, young adults, and the Southeast and Northeast population. Sickle cell disease mortality rate increased until 2010 (13.31%; 95%CI: 6.37; 20.70), particularly in individuals aged 30 years or more (12.78%; 95%CI: 2.98; 23.53) and in the Northeast (12.27%; 95%CI: 8.92; 15.72). Most deaths occurred in the second decade of life (3.01 deaths/million), with a 59% increase in the median age of death in Brazil, from 27.6 to 30.3 years, more pronounced in females and the North Region. The observed gain in the survival of sickle cell disease in Brazil is still much lower than in developed countries and presents regional disparities, probably due to the lack of access to health care and recent treatments, such as hydroxyurea, still restricted to hematological referral centers in Brazilian capitals.

Ao contrário dos estudos internacionais, houve um aumento da taxa de mortalidade por doença falciforme no Brasil após a implantação do programa de triagem neonatal, provavelmente devido à melhoria do acesso ao diagnóstico. O objetivo deste estudo foi avaliar as diferenças na tendência temporal da taxa de mortalidade por doença falciforme e idade mediana ao morrer no Brasil, considerando as medidas implementadas para ampliar o diagnóstico e melhorar o acesso à saúde no país e no cenário internacional. As séries temporais foram extraídas do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade de 1996 a 2019. Mudanças na magnitude da taxa de mortalidade e na idade mediana ao morrer foram verificadas via modelos de regressão segmentada, estratificados por sexo, região de residência e idade. A maioria dos óbitos ocorreu entre jovens, pretos ou pardos, e habitantes das regiões Sudeste e Nordeste. Houve um aumento da taxa de mortalidade por doença falciforme até 2010 (13,31%; IC95%: 6,37; 20,70), especialmente em indivíduos com 30 anos ou mais (12,78%; IC95%: 2,98; 23,53) e habitantes do Nordeste (12,27%; IC95%: 8,92; 15,72). A maioria dos óbitos ocorreu durante a segunda década de vida (3,01 óbitos/milhão), com um aumento de 59% na idade mediana ao morrer no Brasil (de 27,6 para 30,3 anos), mais acentuada entre mulheres e na Região Norte. O aumento observado na sobrevivência da doença falciforme no Brasil ainda é muito menor do que em países desenvolvidos e com disparidades regionais, provavelmente pela falta de acesso aos serviços de saúde e aos tratamentos recentes, como a hidroxiureia, que ainda é restrita aos centros de referência hematológicos das capitais brasileiras.

A diferencia de los estudios internacionales, en Brasil se produjo un aumento de la tasa de mortalidad por enfermedad de células falciformes tras la implantación del programa de tamizaje neonatal, probablemente debido a la mejora del acceso al diagnóstico. El objetivo del estudio es determinar las diferencias en la tendencia temporal de la tasa de mortalidad y la edad media de muerte por enfermedad de células falciformes en Brasil, teniendo en cuenta las medidas implementadas para ampliar el diagnóstico y mejorar el acceso a la atención sanitaria en el país y en el escenario internacional. Las series temporales fueron extraídas del Sistema de Información sobre de Mortalidad de 1996 a 2019. Los cambios en la magnitud de la tasa de mortalidad y la edad media de la muerte se identificaron con modelos de regresión segmentados, estratificados por sexo, región de residencia y edad. La mayoría de las muertes ocurrieron en personas de color, adultos jóvenes y los habitantes del sureste y noreste. Hubo un aumento de la tasa de mortalidad por enfermedad de células falciformes hasta 2010 (13,31%; IC95%: 6,37; 20,70), sobre todo en individuos de 30 años o más (12,78%; IC95%: 2,98; 23,53) y en el Noreste (12,27%; IC95%: 8,92; 15,72). La mayoría de las muertes ocurrió en la segunda década de la vida (3,01 muertes/millón), con un aumento del 59% en la edad media de muerte en Brasil, de 27,6 a 30,3 años, más pronunciado en las mujeres y en el Norte. La ganancia observada en la supervivencia de la enfermedad de células falciformes en Brasil es todavía muy inferior a la de los países desarrollados y con disparidades regionales, probablemente debido a la falta de acceso a la asistencia sanitaria y a los tratamientos recientes, como la hidroxiurea, todavía restringidos a los centros de referencia hematológica de las capitales brasileñas.

Burden of occupational cancer in Brazil and federative units, 1990-2019 / Carga de câncer relacionado ao trabalho no Brasil e unidades da federação, 1990-2019

ABSTRACT: Objective: To analyze the spatiotemporal distribution of the burden of occupational cancer in Brazil and federative units between 1990 and 2019. Methods: Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study. Deaths from cancer whose attributable risk factor was occupational carcinogens were considered. Spatial analysis was performed with the first and last years of the series (1990 and 2019). Age-adjusted mortality rates were used to estimate the global Moran's Index (Moran's I), and the local indicator of spatial association (LISA) to identify clusters in the country with the respective statistical significance. The occupational cancer mortality rate, adjusted for age, was analyzed based on its trend for Brazil and federative units, in the period between 1990 and 2019. Results: Between 1990 and 2019, occupational cancer mortality rate showed a decreasing trend (R2=0.62; p<0.001) as well as the burden of disease indicator — DALY (R2=0.84; p<0.001). However, mortality is increasing in most states, suggesting that a minority of federative units induce the country's global trend. There is also the development of a spatial pattern of autocorrelation, indicating clusters of states with low mortality and DALY rates in the Northeast and high values in the South of the country. Conclusion: The overall decreasing trend in the trend of occupational cancer masks the heterogeneity across states. This scenario may be associated with the diversity of economic activities, and suggests a decentralized and equitable plan for occupational cancer surveillance.

RESUMO: Objetivo: Analisar a carga de câncer relacionado ao trabalho no Brasil e unidades da federação, entre 1990 e 2019. Métodos: Extraímos os dados do estudo Carga Global de Doenças (GBD). Consideramos as mortes por câncer cujo fator de risco atribuível fossem agentes ocupacionais carcinogênicos. A análise espacial foi realizada com o primeiro e último anos da série (1990 e 2019). As taxas de mortalidade ajustadas por idade foram utilizadas para calcular o índice de Moran global (I de Moran) e o indicador local de associação espacial (LISA). A taxa de mortalidade por câncer relacionado ao trabalho, ajustada por idade, foi analisada com base em sua tendência, para Brasil e unidades da federação, no período entre 1990 e 2019. Resultados: No período citado, a taxa de mortalidade por câncer relacionado ao trabalho exibiu tendência de decréscimo (R2=0,62; p<0,001), assim como o indicador de carga de doença — DALY (R2=0,84; p<0,001). Contudo, a mortalidade é crescente na maioria dos estados, o que sugere que uma minoria de unidades induz a tendência global do país. Há ainda formação de um padrão espacial de autocorrelação, indicando agrupamentos de estados com baixas taxas de mortalidade e DALY no Nordeste e valores altos no Sul do país. Conclusão: A tendência global de decréscimo na tendência do câncer relacionado ao trabalho mascara a heterogeneidade entre estados. Esse cenário pode estar associado à diversidade de atividades econômicas e sugere um plano descentralizado e equitativo da vigilância do câncer relacionado ao trabalho.

Efeitos da pandemia de COVID-19 nos serviços odontológicos da atenção primária no Maranhão, Brasil / Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on dental services in primary care in Maranhão, Brazil

Resumo O objetivo deste artigo é analisar indicadores de uso de serviços de saúde bucal da atenção primária à saúde no Maranhão antes e durante a pandemia de COVID-19. Estudo ecológico de série temporal interrompida cuja unidade de análise foi o Maranhão. A exposição foi a pandemia de COVID-19, dicotomizada em pré e pandemia. Os desfechos foram calculados pela razão da quantidade de procedimentos preventivos (RPP), de urgência (RPU) e procedimentos curativos (RPC), e a projeção censitária da população do estado, multiplicada por mil, mensalmente. Os dados foram coletados do Sistema de Informação em Saúde para a Atenção Básica e do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística, no período de 2015.1 a 2022.2. As análises foram realizadas por meio do modelo autorregressivo, integrado e de médias móveis com sazonalidade. Houve tendência crescente dos três indicadores até jan./2019. A pandemia causou redução significativa na RPP (Xreg = -6,55; p-valor = 0,0008) e na RPC (Xreg = -4,74; p-valor = 0,0005), mas não influenciou a RPU (Xreg = -0,03; p-valor = 0,12) desde o primeiro semestre de 2020, persistindo até o segundo semestre de 2022. A pandemia de COVID-19 provocou redução nos serviços preventivos e curativos de saúde bucal no Maranhão.

Abstract This article aims to analyze indicators of the utilization of oral health services (UOHS) in primary health care in the state of Maranhão, Brazil, before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. We conducted an ecological time series study. The unit of analysis was the state of Maranhão, and the exposure variable was the COVID-19 pandemic, dichotomized into pre-pandemic and pandemic. The outcome variables were the monthly rates per 1,000 population of three UOHS indicators: rate of preventive procedures (RPP-PHC); rate of urgent procedures (RUP-PHC), and rate of curative procedures (RCP-PHC). The data were collected from the Primary Health Care Information System (SISAB) and the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE) for the period from 2015-2022. The analyses were performed using the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. The three indicators showed an upward trend up to January 2019. The pandemic caused a significant reduction in the RPP (Xreg = -6.55; p-value = 0.0008) and RCP (Xreg = -4.74; p-value = 0.0005), starting in the first semester of 2020 and continuing into the second semester of 2022, but did not influence the RUP (Xreg = -0.03; p-value = 0.12). The COVID-19 pandemic caused a reduction in preventive and curative oral health services in Maranhão.

Associations between ultrafine particles（UFPs） exposure and occurrence and mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in Minhang District， Shanghai： a time-series analysis / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveThe study aimed to quantitatively evaluate the short-term effects of ultrafine particles （UFPs） exposure on the occurrence and mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. MethodsThe number of daily cases of cardio-cerebrovascular events， including stroke and acute myocardial infarction， and mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases， daily concentrations of air pollutants and weather conditions in Minhang， Shanghai from January 1， 2016 to December 31， 2018 were collected. Associations between UFPs and the number of daily cases and deaths were analyzed by the general additive Poisson regression model with the control of meteorological variables， day-of-the-week effects and time trends. Increased percentages of the number of daily cases and deaths and 95%CI were used to indicate the short-term effects of UFPs. ResultsDuring the study period， in the single-pollutant model， an increase of 2022 particles/cm3 showed significant effects with 5.01%（95%CI： 1.22%‒8.94%）and 6.05%（95%CI： 1.53%‒10.80%）increments in the percentages of the number of daily cases and deaths respectively. After adjusting other pollutants in the two-pollutant model， statistically significant associations were also observed. ConclusionUFPs exposure has acute impacts on the occurrence and mortality of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases.