Changes in past global solar radiation based on climate models and remote sensing in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil / Mudanças ocorridas da radiação solar global passada baseado em modelos climáticos e sensoriamento remoto no estado do Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

The objective of this study was to perform a temporal and spatial analysis of the changes in the past global solar radiation based on climate models and remote sensing data in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil for the baseline period (1961-1990). Data from two climate models - the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis and Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory, were used for the A1B intermediate scenario, data from Conventional Weather Stations and orbital sensor Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MODIS Land Cover Type (MCD12Q1). The results of the Spatial Dependence Degree indicate that the best model to represent the global solar radiation is CCCMA-Exponential dry 70.01 and rainy 0.21 respectively. It was possible to verify that in places where the areas are occupied by forests there was reduction of global solar radiation for both dry and rainy periods of approximately 13 MJ m-2d-1. These results indicate that these forest areas can function as islands of freshness, while maintaining the thermal comfort balanced. It was concluded that the dry period had the highest values of solar radiation compared to the rainy (57%), which can be justified by the occurrence of fires in Rio de Janeiro.

O objetivo deste estudo foi realizar uma análise temporal e espacial das mudanças ocorridas da radiação solar global passada baseado em modelo climáticos e sensoriamento remoto no Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Brasil para o período baseline (1961-1990). Utilizaram-se dados de dois modelos climáticos o Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis) e Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory para o cenário intermediário A1B, dados de Estações Meteorológicas Convencionais e do sensor orbital Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MODIS Land Cover Type (MCD12Q1). Os resultados do Grau de Dependência Espacial indicam que o melhor modelo que representa a radiação solar global é o CCCMA-Exponencial seco 70.01 e chuvoso de 0.21 respectivamente. Foi possível verificar que em locais onde as áreas são ocupadas por florestas houve redução da radiação solar global para os dois períodos seco e chuvoso de aproximadamente 13 MJ.m-2.dia-1. Estes resultados indicam que estas áreas de florestas podem funcionar como ilhas de frescor, mantendo o conforto térmico equilibrado. Conclui-se que o período seco apresentou maiores valores de radiação solar em comparação ao chuvoso (57%), que pode ser justificado pela ocorrência de queimadas no Rio de Janeiro.

Potential and Merits of the Eigenvalues Method to Simulate the Conjunctive Use of Groundwater and Surface Water.

It is necessary predict the effect of aquifer stresses in surface water and wetlands and consider the mutual effects that are produced by the conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater. This was originally made with very simple idealized analytical methods. The next development was the application of finite differences or finite elements numerical models, but poses problems when the model has to be run many times to analyze different management alternatives. When aquifer behavior is linear, as in confined, semiconfined, or unconfined aquifers with not too large changes in its saturated thickness, it is possible to apply the superposition strategy through influence functions. That has simplified significantly modeling and improved the effectiveness of management models. However, for large models, long modeling periods and a large number of alternatives, it is needed to handle and store many influence functions and to consider and store all the previous stresses. In that case, the eigenvalue method can be a more appropriated option. This approach solves the spatially discretized flow equation explicitly and continuously in time, obtaining modal orthogonal components through very simple explicit state equations in function of time. To reduce the computational load, the simulation can be simplified with appropriate truncation using only dominant modes of the components at the expense of a small error. Efficient methods have been developed to get the modal components as well as to perform truncation with limited errors.