Número de médicos en Chile: estimaciones, proyecciones y comparación internacional / Number of physicians in Chile: current and prospective estimate and international comparison

Background: In the last decades, the number of Universities with medical schools has increased dramatically in our country. Aim: To introduce a conceptual model to estimate the number of physicians that are incorporated to the profession in Chile every year as well as the cumulative number of active physicians in specific time frame. To provide information about the number of available physicians in the country and compare it with the international context. Material and methods: This model includes information about the number of students that are admitted in all medical schools of the country, the dropout rate, the number of immigrant physicians from other countries, and the cumulative number of active physicians in the previous period. Results: There is an increased number of new medical students starting in 1994 that will produce, starting in 2001, a significant increased in the number of new physicians graduated from Chilean Universities. Meanwhile the increased number of new physicians in recent years is mainly explained by a significant increase in immigrant physicians. The number of active physicians estimated by the year 2000 is 18,549 and this number will be 25,704 by the year 2007. With these estimated numbers, we introduce a qualitative model that allowed us to compare the current number of active physicians in Chile with other countries, especially those with a comparable degree of development. This model uses first The Human Development Index and later the per capita income of different countries adjusted by purchasing power in USA. According to these calculations, Chile has a lower number of physicians than similar countries, and this difference will persist, even after the significant increase in the new physicians expected for the new future. Conclusions: Chile continues to have a lower number of physicians than countries with similar human development indices

Desempeño académico de los estudiantes de medicina: ¿un resultado predecible? / Academic performance of medical students: a predictable result?

Background: Traditionally, medical schools demand their students a high dedication in time, responsibility and integrity. Aim: To assess the predictive capacity of several specific variables, on the academic performance of medical students. Material and methods: All students who entered during 1984-1995 period were studied. The academeic performance was assessed using two indices: an overall evaluation of successfulness as determined by the approval rate in different courses and grade-point average obtained during the first three years at the Medical School. The variables used to predict academic performance were year of enrollment, high school grades, university admission test scores, biomedical and demographic characteristics. All these were meassured at the time when the student was enrolled. Results: Eight hundred and eight students were studied at the end of the third year. The most important predictive variables selected for both performance indices were: high school grades, admission biology test scores, place were high school studies were done, and previous university studies. In addition verbal and mathematics admission academic performance tests scores were selected for grade-point average index. Although, the overall admission score and high school academic performance were significantly associated with the two outcomes, they were not selected in the final models. Conclusions: The best predictors of an optimal academic performance in these medical students were high school grades, admission bilogy test scores, residing in Metropolitan Santiago and previous university studies

Cáncer gástrico y enfermedad cerebrovascular: ¿una historia natural con elementos comunes? análisis de la teoría de la sal en Chile: 1955-1994 / Gastric cancer and cerebrovascular disease: a natural history with common elements? analysis of the salt theory in Chile: 1955-1994

Background: In the last forty years, a sustained reduction in the gastric cancer and cerebrovascular disease mortality has been recorded. Joossens has postulated that sodium intake has an influence in the natural history of both diseases. Aim: To analyze the mortality caused by both diseases in Chile. Material and methods: The mortality of people aged 35 to 64 years old, due to gastric cancer and cerebrovascular diseases in the period 1955-1994, was analyzed. An analysis according to regions, using temporal series and correlation techniques was performed. Results: In the studied period, the mortality due to gastric cancer decreased by 71.6 percent in men and by 79.5 percent in women. Mortality due to cerebrovascular diseases decreased by 56.9 percent in men and by 63.9 percent in women. There was a correlation coefficient of + 0.91 between the mortality due to both diseases. Cerebrovascular disease mortality appears as a predictor of gastric cancer mortality in temporal series analysis. Conclusions: Joossens theories are supported by the present data. Prospective studies should be designed to confirm the hypothesis

Composición corporal de neonatos con alteraciones en el crecimiento fetal / Body composition of newborn infants with abnormal fetal growth

Con el objetivo de estudiar la asociación entre la composición corporal en recién nacidos con elpeso al nacer y las alteraciones del crecimiento fetal se estimó las masas magra y grasa de 224 recién nacidos de familias de bajos ingresos en Santiago de Chile , utilizando el método antropométrico de Dauncey. En el total de estos niños sanos de término la proporción de masas grasa fue 16.5 por ciento. hubo una fuerte y significativa asociación positiva del peso al nacer con la masa magra (r² = 58,2 por ciento). Aunque la masa grasa constituyó solo 16,5 por cientodel peso al nacer, explicó una gran proporción de su varianza (58,2 por ciento). En los neonatos con retardo de crecimiento fetal o con bajo índice ponderal hubo una composición corporal particular. Esos recién nacidos tuvieron valores absolutos inferiores tanto de la masa grasa como de la masa magra, pero sólo la masa fue proporcionalmente menor que los niños normales o con sobrepeso. El déficit nutricional de estos niños está asociado con mayor riesgo de afecciones perinatales, por lo que debiera ser prevenido con una adecuada alimentación de la madre durante el embarazo. Los resultados obtenidos, similares a los estudios previos en países desarrollados, sugieren que la composición corporal podría ser útil para evaluar el crecimiento fetal al momento del nacimiento

Mortalidad por accidentes de tránsito en Chile, 1994: una aproximación epidemiológica / Mortality due to traffic accidents in Chile during 1994: an epidemiological approach

Traffic accidents are one of the most important public health problems in the world and produce social, work and human resources losses. Data were obtained from death certificates in which the cause of death was a traffic acciden. All death certificates obtained by the National Institute of Statistics during 1994 were used. Social, demographic and seasonal variable were recorded. During 1994 there were 1679 deaths due to traffic accidents (81 percent male), with a rate of 19.6 per 100,000 inhabitants. Gender specific risks were 19.62 and 4.48 for men and women, respectively. Mean age at the moment of death was 39 years old. Fifty three percent of deceased people were single, 42 percent married and 5 percent widowers. Ten percent had not formal education, 48 percent had basic education, 23 percent college education and 6.5 percent university education. Seventy seven percent of fatalities ocurred in urban areas. The risk of death of traffic accidents was 7.02 per 100,000 inhabitants in the metropolitan region. The information obtained in the present study may help to generate preventive strategies to control deaths caused by traffic accidents