Trends of reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China from 2007 to 2017: an exponential smoothing time series analysis

BACKGROUND@#The main objective of this study was to describe the temporal distribution of monthly reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China and develop an appropriate time series model for short-term extrapolation forecast.@*METHODS@#Surveillance data of the monthly reported human brucellosis cases occurring from April 1, 2007, to March 31, 2017, in mainland China were obtained. The spectrum analysis was first adopted to find the cyclic and seasonal features, the existence of the seasonality and trend was determined by exponential smoothing method and the seasonal-trend decomposition. The candidate models of exponential smoothing included the additive model and multiplicative model; R was selected as the indicator for the selection of candidate model, and the stability of the model was verified by adjusting the training data and test data set. Finally, the extrapolations of monthly incident human brucellosis cases in 2017 were made.@*RESULTS@#From April 1, 2007, to March 31, 2017, a total of 435,108 cases of Brucellosis occurred in mainland China were reported, with an average of 3626 cases per month and a standard deviation of 1834 cases. The R of the exponential smoothing method that based on additive model increased steadily from 0.927 to 0.949 with the increase of the data volume. Ten of 12 actual values fell in the confidence interval of predicted value.@*CONCLUSIONS@#Human brucellosis cases peaked during the months from March to August in mainland China, with clear seasonality. The exponential smoothing based on the additive model method could be effectively used in the time series analysis of human brucellosis in China. Control methods, such as vaccination, quarantine, elimination of infected animals, and good hygiene within the production cycle, should be strengthened with paying more attention to the seasonality. Further research is warranted to explore the drivers behind the seasonality.

DWI in evaluation on biological characteristics of breast invasive ductal carcinoma / 中国医学影像技术

Objective To evaluate the value of DWI in assessing the biological characteristics of breast invasive ductal carcinoma (IDC).Methods Eighty-seven IDC lesions confirmed by postoperative pathology were involved in this retrospective study.The ADC values of IDC were compared among different lymph node status,grades,and molecular subtype.The correlations of ADC value and lymph node status,grades,and molecular subtype were evaluated.Results The ADC value of IDC with positive lymph node was lower than that with negative lymph node (P=0.035),and the ADC value of the high grade IDC was lower than those of medium grade IDC and low grade IDC (P=0.021,0.002).There was no significant difference of ADC value between different molecular subtypes.There was low negative correlation of ADC value with grades (r.s =-0.357,P 0.001) and week negative correlation of ADC value lymph node status and nolecular subtype (rs =-0.227,P=0.034;rs-0.093,P＜0.001).Conclusion DWI can provide useful information in evaluating the biological characteristics of IDC.

The exploration and exam quality analysis of ‘Probability’ course for foreign medical students / 中华医学教育探索杂志

Objective The exam quality of ‘Probability’ course for foreign medical undergraduates was analyzed,aiming at providing some reference for the improvement of the student evalua-tion system and course quality.Methods The ‘Probability’ course exam scores of 167 foreign un-dergraduates of 2014 batch were collected,the students were divided into two classes according to their entrance date,the former part class A consisted of 90 students,the latter part class B consisted of 77 students.The reliability of the test paper was judged according to Cronbach's α,Hotelling's T2 and Pearson correlation coefficient.The Spearman correlation analysis was adopted to evaluate the cor-relation between the question items.For the two classes,the impact of the entrance time on the test scores was explored on the basis of Student's t-test of question item scores and the total scores.Results The average score of the course exam was 82.587 points with the standard deviation of 13.520,Kol-mogorov-Smimov statistic was 1.627 (P=0.010),the exam scores could not follow normal distribution.The Cronbach's α for the exam paper was 0.808,the standardized Cronbach's α was 0.815.The Spearman correlation coefficients between the five question items were all with statistical significance and varied from 0.315 to 0.657.As the students were divided into two classes according to their entrance date,for the ‘Probability’ section scores of the latter batch students were less than the scores of the former batch,with the difference 4.017 points,the same situation was also found that all the five items in the ‘Probability’ section.Conclusions The entrance time for the foreign medical freshman has an impact on their exam scores,suggesting that more attention should be paid to those students.

Simulation of the epidemic of influenza A(H1N1)in a university using cel-lular automata model / 中国感染控制杂志

Objective To explore the application value of cellular automata(CA)in simulating the epidemic spread of out-break of influenza A(H1N1).Methods The publications regarding influenza A(H1N1)from January 2009 to March 2015 were collected from the China National Knowledge Infrastructure(CNKI),epidemiological data of H1N1 were retrieved ac-cording to inclusion criteria,the Matlab 7.0 software was adopted to construct CA model for simulating and analyzing the epidemic of H1N1 occurred in a university in Chongqing between October 12 and November 20,2009.Results There were a total of 17 820 students in this university,the epidemic of influenza lasted 40 days in 2009;When the parameter,the ef-fective infection rate was 0.04,the model of CA fit well,and gave estimate for basic reproduction number (R0 )1.202. Conclusion CA has certain reliability in simulating epidemics of airborne infectious diseases,it can provide reference for the prevention and control of disease.

Primary study of respiratory monitoring based on breath sounds / 中国医疗器械杂志

It is nonlinear relationship between breath sounds and respiratory flow rate, thus breath sounds might be a new solution for respiratory monitoring. The envelope of the breath sounds was created firstly. And the linear relationship between the logarithm of envelope and the respiratory flow rate was proved. Then model parameters were derived from every subject using regression analysis. Finally, using these parameters estimated respiratory flow rate was achieved by the logarithm of envelope with 14.9% error. Therefore, respiratory flow rate estimation and respiration monitoring based on breath sounds are feasible.

Pusher curving technique for preventing tilt of femoral Günther Tulip inferior vena cava filter: in vitro study / 中华放射学杂志

Objective To determine whether the adjustment of the pusher of GTF was useful to decrease the degree of tilting of the femoral Ginther Tulip filter (GTF) in an in vitro caval model. Methods The caval model was constructed by placement of a 25 mm × 100 mm and two 10 mm ×200 mm Dacron graft inside a transparent bifurcate glass tube. The study consisted of two groups: left straight group (GLS) (n =100) and left curved group (GLC) (n = 100). In the GLC, a 10° to 20° angle was curved on the introducer.The distance (DCH) between the caval right wall and the hook was measured. The degree of tilting (DT) was classified into 5 grades and recorded. Before and after the GTF being released, the angle (ACM1, 2)between the axis of IVC and the metal mount, the distance (DCM1) between the caval right wall and the metal mount, the angle (ACF) between the axis of IVC and the axis of the filter and the diameter of IVC (DIVC) were measured. The data were analyzed with Chi-Square test, t test, rank sum test and Pearson correlation test. Results The degree of GTF tilting in each group revealed a divergent tendency. In group LC, the apex of the filter tended to be grade Ⅲ compared in group LS (x2 value 37. 491 ,P ＜0.01).The differences of most variables between GLS and GLC were considered as statistical significance(16. 60° vs.3.05°, 20.60° vs. 3.50°, -3.90°vs. -0.40°, 2.98 mm vs. 10.40 mm, - 10.95° vs. -0.485°,13. 17 mm vs. 10.06 mm, - 1.70° vs. 0.70°, t or Z values - 12. 187, - 12. 188, -8.545, -51.834,-11. 395,9. 562, -3. 596, P ＜ 0. 01). There exist significant positive correlation between ACM1 and ACF,ACM1 - ACM2 and DCH1 - DCH2 in each group, respectively(r values 0. 978,0. 344,0. 879,0. 627 ,P ＜0. 01),while significant negative associations are detected between DCH1 and ACF in each group , ACP and ACF in group LC(r values -0.974, -0.322, -0.702,P＜0.01). Conclusion The technique of adjusting the orientation of filter pusher had minimized the incidence and extent of GTF filter tilting in vitro.

Construction, prokaryotic expression and immunogenic analysis of HXB2 subtype Tat mutant of human immunodeficiency virus type-1 / 中华传染病杂志

Objective To construct shifting mutant of cysteine-rich region to 3?@terminal of Tat gene of human immunodeficiency virus type-1 (HIV-1) HXB2 strain, and to analyze the immunogenicity of mutant protein (Tat-cct) after prokaryotically expressed and purified. Methods The cysteine-rich region (nucleotides 64--111) of Tat gene was shifted to 3'terminal of Tat of HIV-1 HXB2 strain by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and Tat mutant DNA sequence was obtained. Prokaryotie express plasmid pET32a-Tat-cct was constructed and transformed into E. coli BL21 (DE3), then Tat-cct protein was expressed and purified. BALB/c mice were immunized with the fusion protein Tat-cct, and immunogenicity of the immunized serum was detected by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Results The recombinant plasmid pET32a-Tat-cct expressed in E. coli BL21 (DE3) and the relative molecular mass of the purified fusion protein was 31 000. The serum antibody titer of mice immunized with Tat-cct recombinant protein was 1 : 1600, which binded specifically with both Tat-ect protein and Tat protein (amino acids 1-101). Conclusions The recombinant protein Tat-cct of Tat mutant strain can be expressed efficiently in E. coli and well retains immunogenicity, which provides valuable information for basic research of HIV-1 Tat vaccine.

Evaluation and Exploration of Bilingual Teaching for Medical Image Equipment / 中华医学教育探索杂志

Bilingual teaching was taken into the part of computed tomography(CT)teaching in the medical image equipment for 2003 grade image undergraduates.In order to know the students' demands to the bilingual teaching as well as the students' requests in the bilingual teaching implementation process,the questionnaire was carried on to the students;at the same time the bilingual teaching test result was analyzed so as to evaluate its teaching effect.

Relationship between multiple risk factors and coronary artery lesions in the patients with coronary heart disease and metabolic syndrome / 第三军医大学学报

Objective To investigate the relationship between coronary artery lesions and multiple risk factors in the patients with metabolic syndrome (MS) and coronary heart disease (CHD). Methods Totally 429 patients were definitely diagnosed with CHD by coronary arteriography and their BMI, BP, FBG, TG, HDL-c as well as age, gender, smoking, TC, LDL-c, UA were recorded. All patients were divided into two groups: CHD with MS, CHD. Results BMI, BP, FBG, TG, HDL-c, TC, LDL-c and UA were significantly higher in CHD with MS group than those in CHD group (P

Prevention and Control of Intestinal Nematode Infection in Shanghai / 中国寄生虫学与寄生虫病杂志

Objective To evaluate the current status of intestinal nematode infection in Shanghai and make recommendations for further control activities Methods Retrospective review of the control program was made based on the change of nematode prevalence in Shanghai area since the 1950s, and challenges under the current situation were analysed. Results The intervention measures included chemotherapy, health education, sanitary disposal of human excreta and safe water supply. With the control strategy, socio\|economical development and the change of farming patterns, the prevalence of intestinal nematode infection in population was reduced by 88^5%, from 62^6% in 1955 to 8^2% in 2000. Among them, ascaris infection decreased by 89^0%, from 52^1% to 6^3%, hookworm infection decreased by 99^0%, from 12^9% to 0^1%, but pinworm infection was still as high as 18^9% in 1999. Conclusion Prevalence of nematode infection in Shanghai was considerably reduced. To match it with the current socio\|economical development in the Municipality, however, more needs to be done. Sustainable control activities and surveillance are recommended.