Application of Bayesian probabilistic linkage model in birth and death data linking / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo elucidate the principles and methods of the Bayesian probabilistic linkage model， and to demonstrate the effect of applying the model in linking birth and death data. MethodsThrough the Shanghai birth and death registration system， data of 199 025 infants born in 2017 and 1 512 infants who died in 2017 and 2018 were collected. After cleaning the data， the data were divided into monthly blocks and fully linked. The Jaro-Winkler algorithm and Euclidean distance were employed to measure the similarity of fields for matching. A Bayesian probabilistic linkage model was constructed and the linking effect was evaluated using a confusion matrix. ResultsUsing the Bayesian probabilistic linkage model， the birth and death data of infants were effectively linked， revealing that 36.71% of infants who died in Shanghai were born outside the city， and the probability of infant death was 2.6‰. The confusion matrix of the test set showed a recall rate of 0.86， precision of 0.76， and an F-score of 0.81. ConclusionThe practical application of Bayesian probabilistic linkage demonstrates a good model performance， enabling the establishment of birth-death cohorts that more accurately reflect the true levels of infant mortality. Utilizing this technique to integrate data from different departments can effectively improve research efficiency in the field of public health.

Overview of the establishment of Shanghai twin birth cohort / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo establish the Shanghai twin birth cohort （STBC） and analyze the effects of genetic factors， shared environment， and non-shared environment interactions on birth health and growth and development of newborns. MethodsBased on the population-wide birth cohort in Shanghai， a comprehensive survey was conducted on the families with double and multiple babies born after January 1， 2015 to collect information on birth health， growth and development， and the family environment of the babies. ResultsBy December 31， 2021， a total of 7 195 pairs （14 405 cases） of twins were successfully included in the STBC survey. The average birth length of twins was 47.2 cm and average birth weight was 2 465.3 g. Heterozygous twins accounted for 69.05% and preterm babies accounted for 57.07%. The average age of the mothers of twins was 31.82 years， and the average age of the fathers was 33.87 years， with more than 80% of the parents having a college degree or above. 44.50% of the mothers used assisted reproductive technologies， 7.40% had illnesses during pregnancy， and 15.90% were exposed to passive smoking during pregnancy. During the survey period， the average monthly increase in the length of the twin infants was 2.09 cm， and the average monthly weight gain was 0.53 kg. ConclusionThe incidence of adverse outcomes such as maternal cesarean section rate， preterm birth， and low birth weight is higher in the twin birth population. Information on birth health as well as growth and development in childhood and adolescence in the twin birth population is collected based on STBC， which can provide a solid data foundation for studying children’s chronic non-communicable diseases， psychological and behavioral disorders and other complex health problems caused by the combined effects of genetics and the environment.

Design and baseline characteristics of a population-based birth cohort in Shanghai / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo introduce the basic design， development plan and objectives of a population-based birth cohort in Shanghai， and further present the main data and baseline characteristics of enrolled participants in the cohort， and to provide key information for reproductive health-related studies. MethodsThe Shanghai population-based birth cohort initiated on January 1， 2005， included newborns born in Shanghai every year and their parents， and collected information on reproductive health， reproductive treatment， birth characteristics， growth and development status， as well as the incidence， treatment and death of diseases by employing data linkage technology and investigations. This formed a birth cohort spanning the entire life cycle. ResultsAs of October 2022， a total of 2 978 538 newborns and their parents were included in the cohort. Among them， 2 905 135 （97.54%） were naturally conceived （NC）， and 73 403 （2.46%） were born through assisted reproductive technologies （ART）. The average age of parents was （32.56±4.12） years old for females and （34.62±5.34） years old for males in the ART group， which was higher than （28.02±4.71） years and （30.07±5.54） years for parents in the NC group. Among parents， females and males aged 30 and above accounted for 77.12% and 85.08%， respectively， which were higher than that of parents （35.28% for females and 49.66% for males） in the NC group. Furthermore， the percentage of parents with a college degree or above in the ART group was 73.23% for females and 73.66% for males， which were higher than those in the NC group （49.98% and 50.91%， respectively）. The multiple births rate in the ART group was 33.81%， which was higher than that in the NC group （1.88%）. The incidence of premature birth and low birth weight in the ART group were 24.47% and 19.08%， respectively， which was higher than that in the NC group （5.47% and 3.73%）. ConclusionThe comprehensive collection of reproductive health-related information in the birth cohort in Shanghai can provide essential resources to determine the influence of genetics， environment， reproductive treatment and other related factors on the health of offspring after birth.

Risk prediction of low birth weight infants in Shanghai / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo investigate the risk factors of fertility behaviors with preterm birth and low birth weight， and to develop a nomogram model to predict the occurrence of low birth weight. MethodsBirth registration information in Shanghai from 2010 to 2020 was collected， and ANOVA and Chi-square tests were used to compare the differences in reproductive behavior factors and newborn health status across time. The odds ratio （OR） value and 95%CI were calculated by a multi-classification logistic regression model to determine the association between reproductive behavior factors and preterm birth or low birth weight infants. A nomogram model was established based on logistic model and the area under the ROC curve was used to assess the effect of the model. ResultsThis analysis included 2 089 384 live newborns. The incidence of full-term low birth weight， preterm normal weight and preterm low birth weight in Shanghai was 0.94%， 2.48% and 2.01%， respectively. From 2010 to 2020， 40.00% women had a history of abortion， the proportion of women who gave birth at age ≥40 years old increased from 1.05% to 2.24%， the proportion of fathers aged ≥40 years increased from 4.79% to 7.48%， and the proportion of women with postgraduate or above increased from 4.81% to 11.74%. The incidence of preterm low birth weight in Shanghai showed an increasing trend over time. Logistic regression analysis showed that the risk of preterm low birth weight was lower in female than in male infants （OR=0.97， 95%CI： 0.95‒0.98）， and the risk of full-term low birth weight was higher than in male infants （OR=1.85， 95%CI： 1.80‒1.90）. The risk of preterm birth and low birth weight was lower for couples of childbearing age with higher education. The risk of preterm low birth weight in newborns tended to increase with maternal age at childbirth >30 years， paternal age ≥40 years， and the number of abortions >2 times. Mother <25 or >35 years， father aged 30‒34 years， and the number of abortions >3 times were the risk factors of full-term low birth weight infants. ConclusionCouples of childbearing age who choose to have children at too high or too low age may increase the risk of preterm birth or low birth weight， so it is necessary to strengthen population awareness and promote age-appropriate childbirth. Multiple abortions are also associated with preterm birth and low birth weight， and it is advisable to popularize the scientific knowledge of contraception and birth control to reduce unnecessary abortions. The nomogram in the study can visualize the risk of full-term and low birth weight infant at different levels of factors， which can assist couples preparing for pregnancy in making decisions about the timing of childbirth and understanding the level of risk.

Trend and gender difference of mortality rate of senile dementia： based on the method of annual percent change / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo investigate the characteristics of gender difference and the trend of the mortality rate of senile dementia in registered population in Shanghai from year 2002 to 2018， and to provide the basis for formulating relative intervention measures before and after senile dementia from an public-health view. MethodsBased on the collected data of death registration， focused on the senile dementia disease codes F03，G30.0，G30.1，G30.8，G30.9 according to The International Classification of Diseases 10th revision （ICD-10）. We analyzed the characteristics of gender difference in the mortality rate of senile dementia in registered population in Shanghai from year 2002 to 2018. According to ASR， we calculated the standardized mortality rate of senile dementia， and used the chi-square test to compare the difference between the gender mortality rates. The trend and the turning point of the mortality rate of senile dementia were determined by linear regression analysis by Join-point. ResultsThe crude mortality rate of senile dementia in the registered population in Shanghai from year 2002 to 2018 was 5.46/105， 3.50/105 in males and 7.43/105 in females. The standardized mortality rate of senile dementia was 2.61/105， 1.67/105 in males and 3.56/105 in females. The trend of the standardized mortality rate of senile dementia in 17 years decreased ［APC=-5.5（-6.5，-4.5）%，P<0.01］. The trend of the standardized mortality rate of senile dementia decreased in both males ［APC=-4.9（-6.2，-3.6）%，P<0.01］ and females ［APC=-5.9（-6.9，-4.9）%，P<0.01］. The trend of the gender difference decreased ［APC=-6.8（-8.2，-5.3）%，P<0.01］. The mortality rate of senile dementia was higher in females than in males ［（χ2=33.63，P<0.01）］. ConclusionThe mortality rate of senile dementia in females is higher than in males in Shanghai， though the trend of the gender difference decreased. This gender difference is worth of attention.

Dynamic relationship between changes of mortality rate and urban development level in Shanghai / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo analyze the dynamic response relationship between urban development and mortality rate in Shanghai， and to predict the trend of mortality rate changes. MethodsBy analyzing the total mortality rate （TMR）， gross domestic product （GDP） and socio-demographic index （SDI） in Shanghai from 1978 to 2017， a vector autoregressive （VAR） model was constructed to evaluate the impact of urban development on the mortality rate. ResultsThe fitted R2 of the VAR model was 0.92. The short-term effect of GDP on the improvement of death level was negative， while the long-term effect was positive， and the SDI was negative regardless of the short-term and long-term effects. By the tenth year， GDP and SDI contributed 10.61% and 27.25% to TMR changes， respectively. The model predicted that the mortality rate in Shanghai would be 9.17 per thousand by 2030. ConclusionLong-term economic growth can effectively promote a decline in population mortality. However， as the economy develops vigorously， the adverse effects of declining birth rates and population aging on population health during the era of high-level population development should not be ignored.

Efficacy of minocycline hydrochloride ointment combined with metronidazole film in the treatment of periodontitis and their effects on C-reactive protein and elastase levels in gingival crevicular fluid / 中国基层医药

Objective:To investigate the efficacy of minocycline hydrochloride ointment combined with metronidazole film in the treatment of periodontitis and their effects on C-reactive protein and elastase levels in the gingival crevicular fluid.Methods:76 patients with periodontitis who received treatment in Jiaxing Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from May 2019 to January 2020 were included in this study. They were randomly allocated to undergo treatment with metronidazole film (control group, n = 38) or minocycline hydrochloride ointment plus metronidazole film (observation group, n = 38) for 4 weeks. We compared clinical efficacy, periodontal system examination indexes (gingival index, periodontal probing pocket depth, gingival bleeding index, plaque index, loss of attachment), gingival crevicular fluid biochemical markers (C-reactive protein, elastase in the pellet, elastase in the supernatant) measured before and after treatment, the incidence of adverse reactions, and the recurrence rate within half a year after treatment between the two groups. Results:The total response rate was significantly higher in the observation group than in the control group [97.37% (37/38) vs. 78.95% (30/38), χ2 = 6.17 , P < 0.05]. Gingival index, periodontal probing pocket depth, gingival bleeding index, plaque index, and loss of attachment measured after treatment were significantly lower in the observation group than in the control group (all P < 0.001). C-reactive protein, elastase in the pellet, and elastase in the supernatant measured after treatment were (5.31 ± 1.19) μg/L, (0.70 ± 0.20) Abs/mL, (0.48 ± 0.19) Abs/mL respectively in the observation group, which were significantly lower than those in the control group [(7.92 ± 1.27) μg/L, (1.15 ± 0.52) Abs/mL, (1.12 ± 0.31) Abs/mL, t = 9.24, 4.97, 10.85, all P < 0.001]. The recurrence rate within half a year in the observation group was significantly lower than that in the control group [2.63% (1/38) vs. 20% (6/38), χ2 = 3.93, P < 0.05]. There was no significant difference in the incidence of adverse reactions between the two groups ( P > 0.05). Conclusion:Minocycline hydrochloride ointment combined with metronidazole film is safe and effective in the treatment of periodontitis. The combined therapy help downregulate the levels of C-reactive protein, elastase in the pellet, elastase in the supernatant of the gingival crevicular fluid, alleviate inflammation, improve the periodontal status, and reduce the recurrence rate.

Analysis of dietary intake in the residents aged 15 years and above in Shanghai / 上海预防医学

ObjectiveTo provide basic data of daily dietary intake from various food categories as well as in different regions， seasons， genders， and age groups in Shanghai residents aged 15 and over. MethodsMultistage stratified proportional probability sampling （PPS） was used to extract the samples， and food frequency questionnaire （FFQ） was used to investigate the dietary intake of the subjects in four seasons from 2012 to 2013. The weighted statistical analysis of the samples comprehensively considered the sampling design weights， the stratified adjustment weights， and the non-response adjustment weights. ResultsThe total daily dietary intake （excluding drinking water） of residents aged 15 years and above was 1 174.71 g， and the highest three daily dietary intake categories were cereals （252.31 g）， vegetables （205.36 g） and fruits （141.00 g）. The total daily dietary intake of the residents in the urban area， the suburban area and the rural area was 1 209.15 g，1 172.27 g and 948.50 g， respectively， and the total daily dietary intake in the outer suburb area was significantly lower than that in other areas （F=74.12，P<0.001）. The total daily dietary intake in different seasons was 1 232.47 g in spring， 1 166.80 g in summer， 1 241.15 g in autumn and 1 088.83 g in winter， respectively. The total daily dietary intake in winter was lower than that in other seasons （F=15.96，P<0.001）. Fruits and beverages intake showed apparent seasonality. The total daily dietary intake in male and female residents was 1 234.03 g and 1 112.32 g， respectively， and the total daily dietary intake of male was higher than that of female （F=78.59，P<0.001）. The total daily dietary intake of residents in different age groups was 1 218.64 g for 15‒44 years old， 1 141.27 g for 45‒59 years old， and 1 064.54 g for 60 years old and above （F=20.28，P<0.001）. ConclusionThe daily intake of cereals， livestock and poultry meat， aquatic products， eggs and edible oil is relatively balanced， but the daily intake of vegetables， fruits and milk is relatively insufficient for the residents aged 15 years and above in Shanghai. The daily intake of different food types shows distinguishable characteristics in urban and rural areas， seasons， age groups and genders.

Effects of McLaughlin Bennett Treriri straight wire technique on the content of periostin in gingival crevicular fluid of the maxillary first molar / 中国基层医药

Objective:To investigate the effects of McLaughlin Bennett Treriri (MBT) straight wire technique on the content of periostin in gingival crevicular fluid of the maxillary first molar.Methods:Ninety patients with malocclusion who were treated with MBT straight wire technique in Jiaxing Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from February to September 2021 were included in this study. The patients were divided into group A (13-18 years old) and group B (30-35 years old) according to age, with 45 patients in each group. According to the random number table method, patients in group A were divided into 100 g subgroup (group A1, n = 22) and 150 g subgroup (group A2, n = 23), and patients in group B were divided into 100 g subgroup (group B1, n = 22) and 150 g sub group (group B2, n = 23). Effects of age on the content of periostin in gingival crevicular fluid and bite force were observed. The antagonistic effect of periostin in gingival crevicular fluid during the application of different corrective forces was evaluated based on the changes in bite force, bone mineral density and height of the jaw after the application of force. The incidence of complications was calculated. Results:The level of periostin and bite force in group A were (1 249.38 ± 89.29) pmol/L and (1 038.37 ± 79.54) N, respectively, which were significantly higher than (831.54 ± 76.38) pmol /L and (921.45 ± 81.36) N in group B ( t = 23.86, 6.89, both P < 0.05). After 1 and 3 months of treatment, the amplitude of improvement in bite force, jaw bone density, and jaw height in group A2 were greater than those in group A2 ( t = 2.92, 6.39, 0.64, 1.30, 1.07, 2.48, all P < 0.05). After 7 and 14 days of treatment, the level of periostin was increased in both group B1 and B2 and its level in group B2 was significantly higher than that in group B1 ( t = 0.59, 1.89, both P < 0.05). After 1 month of treatment, there were no significant differences in bite force, jaw bone density and jaw height between groups B1 and B2 (all P > 0.05). After 3 months of treatment, the amplitude of improvement in bite force, jaw bone density and jaw height were greater in group B2 than those in group B1 ( t = 0.27, 4.02, 3.07, 1.52, 0.06, 1.57, P < 0.05). There were 3 patients with loose teeth, 2 patients with pulp reaction, 1 patient with mucosal ulcer, and 2 patients with secondary dental caries during treatment. The incidence of complications was 8.89%. Conclusion:MBT straight wire technique is effective and safe in the treatment of patients with dental deformities. The level of periostin in gingival crevicular fluid of the maxillary first molar and bite force decrease with age. The corrective force can increase and activate the expression of periostin, thereby promoting periodontal wound healing and regeneration, and increasing patients' bite force, jaw bone density and height.

Association between incidence of fatal intracerebral hemorrhagic stroke and fine particulate air pollution

OBJECTIVE@#Few studies investigating associations between fine particulate air pollution and hemorrhagic stroke have considered subtypes. Additionally, less is known about the modification of such association by factors measured at the individual level. We aimed to investigate the risk of fatal intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) incidence in case of PM (particles ≤ 2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter) exposure.@*METHODS@#Data on incidence of fatal ICH from 1 June 2012 to 31 May 2014 were extracted from the acute stroke mortality database in Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention (SCDC). We used the time-stratified case-crossover approach to assess the association between daily concentrations of PM and fatal ICH incidence in Shanghai, China.@*RESULTS@#A total of 5286 fatal ICH cases occurred during our study period. The averaged concentration of PM was 77.45 μg/m. The incidence of fatal ICH was significantly associated with PM concentration. Substantial differences were observed among subjects with diabetes compared with those without; following the increase of PM in lag2, the OR (95% CI) for subjects with diabetes was 1.26 (1.09-1.46) versus 1.05 (0.98-1.12) for those without. We did not find evidence of effect modification by hypertension and cigarette smoking.@*CONCLUSIONS@#Fatal ICH incidence was associated with PM exposure. Our results also suggested that diabetes may increase the risk for ICH incidence in relation to PM.

Analysis of birth defect rate trend of cleft lip and palate in Shanghai from 2007 to 2016 / 中华口腔医学杂志

Objective@#To analysis the rate of birth defects of cleft lip and palate among newborns in Shanghai during 2007 and 2016 and describe its change trend, for the purpose of prevention, treatment and nursing of newborns with cleft lip and palate.@*Methods@#Birth registration information in Shanghai during January 2007 and December 2016 were collected. Rate of birth defects, gender ratio and maternal age of newborns with cleft lip and palate were analyzed. Annual percent change was applied to analyze the trend.@*Results@#The total birth defect rate of children with cleft lip and palate was 937/million in the past 10 years in Shanghai, showing an overall decreasing trend, decreased 28.20% compared to the data of 2007. The total birth defect rate of newborns with cleft lip decreased 40.86%. Overall decline rate of newborns with cleft lip and palate was 54.60%, but birth defect rate of newborns with the isolated cleft palate rised 14.34%. The number of female isolated cleft palate newborns were 1.6 times higher than those of male isolated cleft palate newborns, male newborns with cleft lip were 1.8 times higher than that of the female newborns with cleft lip. Male newborns with cleft lip and palate were 1.5 times as much as the female newborns with cleft lip and palate. Maternal age is mainly 25 to 29 years old, accounting for 42.01% of the total number of mothers, the according birth defect rate was lowest as 853/million. When maternal age is too low or too high, the risk of neonatal cleft lip and palate could increase. Birth defects of cleft lip and palate was up to 130.8/million when maternal age is less than 20, while birth defects of cleft lip and palate was up to 188.2/million when maternal age over 40 years old.@*Conclusions@#In recent 10 years, the overall rate of birth defects of cleft lip and palate in Shanghai shows a decreasing trend, with cleft lip and palate declining obviously, but isolate cleft palate has an increasing tendency. Maternal age less than 20 years old or more than 40 years old will increase the risk of birth defects in newborns with cleft lip and palate.

General plan of Shanghai Diet and Health Survey / 中华流行病学杂志

Shanghai Diet and Health Survey (SDHS) was designed to prospectively access local residents' food consumption,energy and nutrient intake,related chemical contaminant exposure,and the seasonal change trend to explore the relationship of diet with health.Data from SDHS can be used as fundamental information and scientific evidences for the development of local nutrition and food safety policies.

General plan of Shanghai Diet and Health Survey / 中华流行病学杂志

Shanghai Diet and Health Survey (SDHS) was designed to prospectively access local residents' food consumption,energy and nutrient intake,related chemical contaminant exposure,and the seasonal change trend to explore the relationship of diet with health.Data from SDHS can be used as fundamental information and scientific evidences for the development of local nutrition and food safety policies.

Modeling of gene regulatory networks / 第二军医大学学报

Gene regulatory networks(GRN),which focuses on the complex interactions of genes in life,is an important part in the study of the functional genomics and is the frontier of bioinformatics research.Application of gene-chip technique in bioinformatics provides a great number of basic data for the research of GRN.This paper reviews the origin and recent development of GRN,explicates the preconditions and rationales for construction of GRN,and analyzes several classic GRN models: Boolean networks,linear models,non-linear models and Bayesian networks.The rationales,basic algorithms,advantages,disadvantages and applicability of the models are reviewed based on the characteristics of gene-chip data.