Burden of multiple myeloma in China: an analysis of the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019 / 中华医学杂志(英文版)

BACKGROUND@#There is limited data to comprehensively evaluate the epidemiological characteristics of multiple myeloma (MM) in China; therefore, this study determined the characteristics of the disease burden of MM at national and provincial levels in China.@*METHODS@#The burden of MM, including incidence, mortality, prevalence, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), with a 95% uncertainty interval (UI), was determined in China following the general analytical strategy used in the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019. The trends in the burden of MM from 1990 to 2019 were also evaluated.@*RESULTS@#There were an estimated 347.45 thousand DALYs with an age-standardized DALY rate of 17.05 (95% UI, 12.31-20.77) per 100,000 in 2019. The estimated number of incident case and deaths of MM were 18,793 and 13,421, with age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of 0.93 (95% UI, 0.67-1.15) and 0.67 (95% UI, 0.50-0.82) per 100,000, respectively. The age-specific DALY rates per 100,000 increased to more than 10.00 in the 40 to 44 years age group reaching a peak (93.82) in the 70 to 74 years age group. Males had a higher burden than females, with approximately 1.5- to 2.0-fold sex difference in age-specific DALY rates in all age groups. From 1990 to 2019, the DALYs of MM increased 134%, from 148,479 in 1990 to 347,453 in 2019.@*CONCLUSION@#The burden of MM has doubled over the last three decades, which highlights the need to establish effective disease prevention and control strategies at both the national and provincial levels.

Analysis of the characteristics of second primary malignancy affecting the survival of lymphoma patients / 中华肿瘤杂志

Objective@#To analyze the characteristics of the second primary tumor affecting the survival of patients with lymphoma, and to explore the risk factors of death from the second primary tumor.@*Methods@#The medical records and related death information of 1 173 lymphoma patients who had already died with known causes were collected. The basic causes of death and the characteristics of patients who died of the second primary tumor were analyzed. Cox regression model was used to analyze the risk factors of lymphoma patients who died of the second primary tumor.@*Results@#Among the 1 173 patients who had died, 94 (8.0%) died of the second primary tumor, 935 (79.7%) died of the primary lymphoma and 144 (12.3%) died of other diseases. The second primary tumor accounted for 17.5% (38/217) of all causes of death in patients with the survival period of more than 5 years, and the second primary tumor accounted for 28.3% (17/60) of all causes of death in patients with the survival period of more than 10 years. Among 94 cases who died of second primary tumors, 31 died of lung cancer, 15 died of gastric cancer, 13 died of liver cancer, 9 died of pancreatic cancer, 6 died of colorectal cancer, 6 died of second primary lymphoma and 14 died of other types of tumors. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that age, first-line treatment effect, and chest or mediastinal radiotherapy were associated with the death from second primary tumors for lymphoma patients (all P<0.05). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that the effect of first-line treatment (P=0.030) and the chest or mediastinal radiotherapy (P=0.039) were independent factors for the death of lymphoma patients from the second primary tumor.@*Conclusions@#The second primary tumor is an important factor affecting the survival of lymphoma patients, and the risk of death from second primary tumors increases significantly over time. The effect of first-line treatment and radiotherapy in the chest or mediastinum are independent factors for the death of lymphoma patients from the second primary tumor.

The disease burden of pancreatic cancer in China in 1990 and 2017 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective@#To analyze the disease burden of pancreatic cancer in China in 1990 and 2017.@*Methods@#Province-specific data in China from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2017 were used to describe the change of death status, disease burden of pancreatic cancer in Chinese population by specific province and age groups, including incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), years of life lost (YLL) due to premature mortality and years lived with disability (YLD) in 1990 and 2017. Meanwhile the incidence, mortality, DALY rate, YLL rate, YLD rate were standardized by the GBD global standard population in 2017.@*Results@#In 2017, the new cases of pancreatic cancer, incidence and age-standardized incidence accounted for 83.6 thousand, 5.92/100 000 and 4.37/100 000 in China, with an increase of 230.94%, 180.45% and 49.88% compared with 1990, respectively. The total number of deaths, mortality and age-standardized mortality appeared as 85.1 thousand, 6.02/100 000, 4.48/100 000, with an increase of 236.08%, 184.80% and 47.51% respectively. The incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer increased with age and accelerated from the age of 55 to 59 both in 1990 and 2017. The highest incidence and mortality showed in 85-89 years old in 2017 and in 90-94 years old in 1990. The standardized DALY rate of pancreatic cancer increased from 71.00/100 000 in 1990 to 94.32/100 000 in 2017, increased by 32.84%. The standardized YLL rate increased from 70.39/100 000 to 93.42/100 000, increased by 32.72%. The standardized YLD rate increased from 0.62/100 000 to 0.90/100 000, increased by 45.80%. In terms of age distribution, DALY rate, YLL rate and YLD rate of pancreatic cancer basically showed an increasing trend with age in 1990 and 2017. In 2017, Jiangsu (7.61/100 000), Shanghai (7.52/100 000) and Liaoning (6.84/100 000) ranked the top three provinces in terms of standardized mortality. Compared with 1990, Henan (104.28%), Sichuan (94.02%) and Hebei (90.39%) saw the fastest increase in standardized mortality.@*Conclusions@#The incidence, mortality and disease burden of pancreatic cancer in China increased significantly from 1990 to 2017. Prevention and control measures should be strengthened to reduce the disease burden of pancreatic cancer.

Causes of death in 1,173 patients with lymphoma / 中国肿瘤临床

Objective: To understand the causes of death and long-term prognosis of lymphoma patients. Methods: Data from 6 200 patients with lymphoma admitted to the Department of Lymphoma, Peking University Cancer Hospital, from January 1995 to Decem-ber 2017, were collected. Those who had died and whose causes of death were known were selected. Clinical records and information on death were collected. Results: A total of 1,173 patients were selected, 742 of whom were male (63.3% ), and 431 were female (36.7%). The median age was 56 (8-92) years. There were 77 cases (6.6%) of Hodgkin's lymphoma, 1,095 cases (93.4%) of non-Hodg-kin's lymphoma, and 1 case of unclear pathological classification. Overall population survival was 0-253 months, with a median surviv-al rate of 20 months. The direct causes of death included lymphoma in 688 (58.7%), various infectious diseases in 119 (10.1%), cardio-vascular diseases in 96 (8.2%), secondary primary tumors in 68 (5.8%), and other diseases in 202 cases (17.2%). The underlying causes of death included lymphoma in 936 (79.8%), secondary primary tumors in 94 (8.0%), cardiovascular diseases in 75 (6.4%), respiratory diseases in 32 (2.7%) and other diseases in 36 cases (3.1%). The underlying causes of death in cases wherein survival time exceeded 5 years included lymphoma in 129 (59.4%), secondary primary tumors in 38 (17.5%), cardiovascular diseases in 35 (16.1%), and other dis-eases in 15 cases (6.9%). The underlying causes of death in cases wherein survival time exceeded 10 years included lymphoma in 28 (46.7%), secondary primary tumors in 17 (28.3%), cardiovascular diseases in 7 (11.7%), and other diseases in 8 cases (13.3%). Conclu-sions: Primary tumors remain the main cause of death in patients with lymphoma. After primary tumors, secondary primary tumors and cardiovascular diseases are the most common causes of death, and with the prolongation of survival, the risk of death caused by these factors increases significantly.

Mortality attributable to inadequate intake of fruits among population aged 25 and above in China, 2013 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To assess the mortality attributable to low fruit intake among people over 25 years old in China,2013,and its effect on life expectancy.Methods Based on data collected from China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance in 2013,the average fruit intake in different genders and areas were calculated.Potential impact fraction (PIF) was used to examine the impact on deaths,mortality and life expectancy.Results The average daily fruit intake was (113.3 ± 168.9)g among people over 25 years old,with (103.6± 160.1) g for men and (122.7± 176.6) g for women,in China in 2013.Fruit intake for urban residents was significantly higher than that in rural residents and higher in eastern regions than that in central or western regions.Scores that attributable to low fruit intake accounted for 15.21％ of the total deaths and the population attributable fraction of inadequate intake of fruits to associated diseases was 35.00％.PIF for all the deaths in rural residents (16.50％)appeared higher than that of the urban residents (13.88％),and higher in the residents living in the eastern region (15.48％) than that in the central (16.27％) or western (13.75％) regions.Number of deaths that attributable to low fruit intake was 1.348 4 million.Deaths caused by related diseases appeared as:ischemic heart disease (472.5 thousands),hemorrhagic stroke (338.8 thousands),ischemic stroke (259.0 thousands),lung cancer (208.4 thousands),esophageal cancer (60.7 thousands),laryngeal cancer (5.4 thousands) and oral cancer (3.6 thousands).Numbers of all deaths and related diseases for urban residents were lower than that of the rural residents,with central regions (452.7 thousands) higher than that in the eastern (531.1 thousands) or western (364.6 thousands) regions.The average life expectancy loss caused by low fruit intake was 1.73 years,1.80 years for men and 1.58 years for women,in this country.Loss of life expectancy in the rural residents was higher than that of the urban residents,and higher in central regions than that in the eastern or western regions.Conclusions The intake of fruit was far lower than the recommended standard set for the Chinese people.Population attributable fraction was related to the associated diseases caused by inadequate intake of fruits which also made serious impact on life expectancy.

Effects of insufficient physical activity on motality and life expectancy in adult aged 25 and above among Chinese population / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To analyze the attribution of mortality and impact on life expectancy caused by insufficient physical activity in different gender and areas in adults aged ≥25 years among Chinese people.Methods Data from the programs related to Chinese death surveillence,risk factors of chronic survey,health outcomes of physical activity as well as relative risk (RR) on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study were used.Population attributable fraction (PAF) of different health outcomes attributable to deaths that caused physical activity and the influence of life expectancy in adults aged ≥25 years in Chinese people were calculated.Results The overall PAF for all cause of death due to physical activity in adults aged ≥25 years was 4.24％,with 4.86％ in females and 3.82％ in males.The health outcomes of inadequate physical activity would include breast cancer,colorectal cancer,ischemic heart disease,ischemic stroke and diabetes with relative PAFs as 9.04％,13.96％,14.96％,17.80％ and 16.92％,respectively.The attribution of death on Physical activity was 388 954.The most attributed death was ischemic heart disease,followed by ischemic stroke.With the elimination of physical inactivity,the total life expectancy was expected to lose by 0.43 years,with 0.47 years in women,and 0.39 years in men.Conclusion The increase of physical activity may benefit on health condition so to reduce the burden of chronic diseases and increase the life expectancy.

Deaths and life expectancy losses attributable to diet high in sodium in China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To quantitatively estimate the deaths and life expectancy losses attributable to diet high in sodium in China,and examine the gains and shifts under different control scenarios of sodium consumption.Methods Based on data from the cause-of-death through the National Mortality Surveillance System,and 24 hours urinary sodium values from Global Burden of Disease study on Chinese's estimates,population attributable fractions with the framework of comparative risk assessment were used to analyze the deaths and life expectancy losses due to diet high in sodium.The same methods were followed to examine the gains and shifts under different control scenarios of sodium consumption.Results In 2013,1 430 (940 for men and 490 for women)thousand deaths were attributable to diet high in sodium,accounting for 15.6％ (17.4％ for men and 13.0％ for women) of all-cause deaths in China,which causing 2.17 (2.49 for men and 1.71 for women) years of life expectancy loss.Diet with high sodium in 2013 caused 1 200,50 and 180 thousand deaths from cardiovascular disease,chronic kidney disease and stomach cancer respectively,accounting for 31.5％,30.8％ and 64.8％ of those specific causes.Comparing to the baseline in 2013,if the targets of 10％ decrease of sodium consumption by 2020 and 15％ by 2030 for Chinese chronic disease prevention and treatment planning,and 30％ decrease by 2030 for WHO non-communicable disease monitoring framework are achieved,220,340 and 730 thousand deaths will be averted,which may gain 0.30,0.45 and 0.95 years of life expectancy,respectively.Conclusions As one of the leading risk factors,diet high in sodium had caused heavy burden of disease from cardiovascular disease,chronic kidney disease and stomach cancer on Chinese residents.Intervention programs on sodium-reductionare urgently needed in China and related cost-effectiveness is highly expected.

The effect of high total cholesterol on life expectancy in 2013 in China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To estimate the effect of high total cholesterol (TC) on life expectancy in China.Methods Population attributable fractions (PAF) of high TC were calculated in both urban,rural areas and regions,using data related to TC levels from the chronic disease risk factor surveillance in China,2013.Together with PAFs,data related to death registry,demographics,attributable deaths from high TC and its effect on life expectancy,were estimated.Results In 2013,the TC level in Chinese population aged 25 and above appeared as (4.8± 1.0) mmol/L,higher in urban areas [(4.8±1.0) mmol/L] than that in rural areas [(4.7± 1.0) mmol/L)],with the highest in eastern regions [(4.9 ±1.0) mmol/L] and lowest in the central regions [(4.6 ± 1.0) mmol/L].TC level appeared as (4.8 ± 1.0)mmol/L in both sexes.A total of 2.9％ of all the deaths were attributed to high TC (264 998 deaths),among which 89.3％ were caused by ischemic heart disease (236 540 deaths).PAF was seen higher in females (3.7％) than that in males (2.3％),higher in urban (3.4％) than that in rural areas (2.4％),with the highest in eastern (3.7％) and lowest in western regions (2.1％).Mortality that attributed to high TC was 19.6/100 000,higher in females (21.2/100 000) than that in males (18.0/100 000),higher in urban (20.8/100 000) than that in rural areas (18.2/100 000),with the highest in eastern (23.2/100 000) and lowest in western regions (15.6/100 000).In 2013,the loss of life expectancy that caused by high TC was 0.30 year,higher in females (0.35 year) than in males (0.26 year),higher in urban (0.34 year) than that in rural areas (0.28 year),with the highest seen in the eastern (0.36 year) and lowest (0.23 year) in the western regions.Conclusion In 2013,the effect of high TC on life expectancy appeared different between genders,urban and rural areas or regions,with greater impact on females,urban and eastern areas of the country.

Death and impact of life expectancy attributable to smoking in China, 2013 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To analyze the death attributable to smoking and impact of life expectancy in China in 2013.Methods According to the characteristics of different diseases,we calculated the population attributable fractions of different diseases,death and impact of life expectancy which caused by smoking,using direct method (current smoking rate as exposure levels)and indirect method (smoking impact ratio as exposure levels),based on data from both programs of death surveillance and Chinese chronic disease risk factor surveillance of 2013.Results In 2013,smoking caused around 1.59 million deaths which accounted for 17.38％ of all deaths in China.Constituent ratio of death caused by smoking in males (23.66％) was much higher than that in females (8.30％).However,in urban areas (17.24％),it was slightly lower than that in rural areas (17.51％).Constituent ratio of death caused by smoking in the eastern regions appeared the lowest (16.81％),with western regions the highest (17.91％).In 2013,lung cancer,COPD and ischemia heart disease were the top three diseases causing deaths that related to smoking,but the top three population attributable fractions were lung cancer,COPD and nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China.In 2013,smoking caused a reduction of 2.04 years of life expectancy loss in China,with males in the western regions the highest (3.05 years).Conclusion Smoking is still an important public health problem in China.Tobacco-control-targeted programs in the heavily involved areas could reduce the number of deaths from related diseases that caused by smoking.

Acute effect of fine particulate matters on daily cardiovascular disease mortality in seven cities of China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To explore the effect of fime particulate matters with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μtm (PM2.5) on daily cardiovascular disease mortality in seven cities of China.Methods Daily average concentrations of PM2.5,cardiovascular disease mortality data and environmental data were collected from January 1,2013 to December 31,2015 in seven cities of China,including Shijiazhuang,Haerbin,Shanghai,Wuhan,Guangzhou,Chengdu and Xi'an.We linked generalized additive model with Quasi-Poisson distribution to evaluate the association between daily concentrations of PM2.5 and cardiovascular disease mortality at single-city level and multi-city level,after adjusting for the long-term and seasonal trend,as well as meteorological factors and the effect of "days of week".Results The single-pollutant model indicated that there were marked differences in association strength in these cities,among which the effect in Guangzhou was strongest.At multi-city level,a 10 μg/m3 increase of PM2.5 was associated with an increase of 0.315％ (95％CI:0.133％-0.497％) of daily cardiovascular disease mortality.From lag0 to lag2,the effect of PM2.5 on cardiovascular disease mortality decreased,while it was strongest on lag01.In the two-pollutant model,the estimated effect decreased in all the cities with the adjustments of SO2 or NO2.The insignificant combined results suggested that PM2.5 might have combined effect with other pollutants.Each 10 μg/m3 increase of PM2.5 was associated with increases of 0.371％ (95％CI:0.141％-0.600％) and 0.199％ (95％ CI:0.077％-0.321％) of cardiovascular disease mortality in males and females,respectively.The effect of PM2.5 on cardiovascular disease mortality increased with age and decreased with educational level,although the differences between different subgroups were insignificant.The dose-response relationship between PM2.5 and cardiovascular disease mortality was non-linear and non-threshold,with a steeper curve at lower concentrations.Conclusion The increases of PM2.5 concentration can result in the increase of daily cardiovascular mortality.

Mortality attributable to inadequate intake of fruits among population aged 25 and above in China, 2013 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To assess the mortality attributable to low fruit intake among people over 25 years old in China,2013,and its effect on life expectancy.Methods Based on data collected from China Chronic Disease and Risk Factor Surveillance in 2013,the average fruit intake in different genders and areas were calculated.Potential impact fraction (PIF) was used to examine the impact on deaths,mortality and life expectancy.Results The average daily fruit intake was (113.3 ± 168.9)g among people over 25 years old,with (103.6± 160.1) g for men and (122.7± 176.6) g for women,in China in 2013.Fruit intake for urban residents was significantly higher than that in rural residents and higher in eastern regions than that in central or western regions.Scores that attributable to low fruit intake accounted for 15.21％ of the total deaths and the population attributable fraction of inadequate intake of fruits to associated diseases was 35.00％.PIF for all the deaths in rural residents (16.50％)appeared higher than that of the urban residents (13.88％),and higher in the residents living in the eastern region (15.48％) than that in the central (16.27％) or western (13.75％) regions.Number of deaths that attributable to low fruit intake was 1.348 4 million.Deaths caused by related diseases appeared as:ischemic heart disease (472.5 thousands),hemorrhagic stroke (338.8 thousands),ischemic stroke (259.0 thousands),lung cancer (208.4 thousands),esophageal cancer (60.7 thousands),laryngeal cancer (5.4 thousands) and oral cancer (3.6 thousands).Numbers of all deaths and related diseases for urban residents were lower than that of the rural residents,with central regions (452.7 thousands) higher than that in the eastern (531.1 thousands) or western (364.6 thousands) regions.The average life expectancy loss caused by low fruit intake was 1.73 years,1.80 years for men and 1.58 years for women,in this country.Loss of life expectancy in the rural residents was higher than that of the urban residents,and higher in central regions than that in the eastern or western regions.Conclusions The intake of fruit was far lower than the recommended standard set for the Chinese people.Population attributable fraction was related to the associated diseases caused by inadequate intake of fruits which also made serious impact on life expectancy.

Effects of insufficient physical activity on motality and life expectancy in adult aged 25 and above among Chinese population / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To analyze the attribution of mortality and impact on life expectancy caused by insufficient physical activity in different gender and areas in adults aged ≥25 years among Chinese people.Methods Data from the programs related to Chinese death surveillence,risk factors of chronic survey,health outcomes of physical activity as well as relative risk (RR) on Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study were used.Population attributable fraction (PAF) of different health outcomes attributable to deaths that caused physical activity and the influence of life expectancy in adults aged ≥25 years in Chinese people were calculated.Results The overall PAF for all cause of death due to physical activity in adults aged ≥25 years was 4.24％,with 4.86％ in females and 3.82％ in males.The health outcomes of inadequate physical activity would include breast cancer,colorectal cancer,ischemic heart disease,ischemic stroke and diabetes with relative PAFs as 9.04％,13.96％,14.96％,17.80％ and 16.92％,respectively.The attribution of death on Physical activity was 388 954.The most attributed death was ischemic heart disease,followed by ischemic stroke.With the elimination of physical inactivity,the total life expectancy was expected to lose by 0.43 years,with 0.47 years in women,and 0.39 years in men.Conclusion The increase of physical activity may benefit on health condition so to reduce the burden of chronic diseases and increase the life expectancy.

Deaths and life expectancy losses attributable to diet high in sodium in China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To quantitatively estimate the deaths and life expectancy losses attributable to diet high in sodium in China,and examine the gains and shifts under different control scenarios of sodium consumption.Methods Based on data from the cause-of-death through the National Mortality Surveillance System,and 24 hours urinary sodium values from Global Burden of Disease study on Chinese's estimates,population attributable fractions with the framework of comparative risk assessment were used to analyze the deaths and life expectancy losses due to diet high in sodium.The same methods were followed to examine the gains and shifts under different control scenarios of sodium consumption.Results In 2013,1 430 (940 for men and 490 for women)thousand deaths were attributable to diet high in sodium,accounting for 15.6％ (17.4％ for men and 13.0％ for women) of all-cause deaths in China,which causing 2.17 (2.49 for men and 1.71 for women) years of life expectancy loss.Diet with high sodium in 2013 caused 1 200,50 and 180 thousand deaths from cardiovascular disease,chronic kidney disease and stomach cancer respectively,accounting for 31.5％,30.8％ and 64.8％ of those specific causes.Comparing to the baseline in 2013,if the targets of 10％ decrease of sodium consumption by 2020 and 15％ by 2030 for Chinese chronic disease prevention and treatment planning,and 30％ decrease by 2030 for WHO non-communicable disease monitoring framework are achieved,220,340 and 730 thousand deaths will be averted,which may gain 0.30,0.45 and 0.95 years of life expectancy,respectively.Conclusions As one of the leading risk factors,diet high in sodium had caused heavy burden of disease from cardiovascular disease,chronic kidney disease and stomach cancer on Chinese residents.Intervention programs on sodium-reductionare urgently needed in China and related cost-effectiveness is highly expected.

The effect of high total cholesterol on life expectancy in 2013 in China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To estimate the effect of high total cholesterol (TC) on life expectancy in China.Methods Population attributable fractions (PAF) of high TC were calculated in both urban,rural areas and regions,using data related to TC levels from the chronic disease risk factor surveillance in China,2013.Together with PAFs,data related to death registry,demographics,attributable deaths from high TC and its effect on life expectancy,were estimated.Results In 2013,the TC level in Chinese population aged 25 and above appeared as (4.8± 1.0) mmol/L,higher in urban areas [(4.8±1.0) mmol/L] than that in rural areas [(4.7± 1.0) mmol/L)],with the highest in eastern regions [(4.9 ±1.0) mmol/L] and lowest in the central regions [(4.6 ± 1.0) mmol/L].TC level appeared as (4.8 ± 1.0)mmol/L in both sexes.A total of 2.9％ of all the deaths were attributed to high TC (264 998 deaths),among which 89.3％ were caused by ischemic heart disease (236 540 deaths).PAF was seen higher in females (3.7％) than that in males (2.3％),higher in urban (3.4％) than that in rural areas (2.4％),with the highest in eastern (3.7％) and lowest in western regions (2.1％).Mortality that attributed to high TC was 19.6/100 000,higher in females (21.2/100 000) than that in males (18.0/100 000),higher in urban (20.8/100 000) than that in rural areas (18.2/100 000),with the highest in eastern (23.2/100 000) and lowest in western regions (15.6/100 000).In 2013,the loss of life expectancy that caused by high TC was 0.30 year,higher in females (0.35 year) than in males (0.26 year),higher in urban (0.34 year) than that in rural areas (0.28 year),with the highest seen in the eastern (0.36 year) and lowest (0.23 year) in the western regions.Conclusion In 2013,the effect of high TC on life expectancy appeared different between genders,urban and rural areas or regions,with greater impact on females,urban and eastern areas of the country.

Death and impact of life expectancy attributable to smoking in China, 2013 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To analyze the death attributable to smoking and impact of life expectancy in China in 2013.Methods According to the characteristics of different diseases,we calculated the population attributable fractions of different diseases,death and impact of life expectancy which caused by smoking,using direct method (current smoking rate as exposure levels)and indirect method (smoking impact ratio as exposure levels),based on data from both programs of death surveillance and Chinese chronic disease risk factor surveillance of 2013.Results In 2013,smoking caused around 1.59 million deaths which accounted for 17.38％ of all deaths in China.Constituent ratio of death caused by smoking in males (23.66％) was much higher than that in females (8.30％).However,in urban areas (17.24％),it was slightly lower than that in rural areas (17.51％).Constituent ratio of death caused by smoking in the eastern regions appeared the lowest (16.81％),with western regions the highest (17.91％).In 2013,lung cancer,COPD and ischemia heart disease were the top three diseases causing deaths that related to smoking,but the top three population attributable fractions were lung cancer,COPD and nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China.In 2013,smoking caused a reduction of 2.04 years of life expectancy loss in China,with males in the western regions the highest (3.05 years).Conclusion Smoking is still an important public health problem in China.Tobacco-control-targeted programs in the heavily involved areas could reduce the number of deaths from related diseases that caused by smoking.

Acute effect of fine particulate matters on daily cardiovascular disease mortality in seven cities of China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To explore the effect of fime particulate matters with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μtm (PM2.5) on daily cardiovascular disease mortality in seven cities of China.Methods Daily average concentrations of PM2.5,cardiovascular disease mortality data and environmental data were collected from January 1,2013 to December 31,2015 in seven cities of China,including Shijiazhuang,Haerbin,Shanghai,Wuhan,Guangzhou,Chengdu and Xi'an.We linked generalized additive model with Quasi-Poisson distribution to evaluate the association between daily concentrations of PM2.5 and cardiovascular disease mortality at single-city level and multi-city level,after adjusting for the long-term and seasonal trend,as well as meteorological factors and the effect of "days of week".Results The single-pollutant model indicated that there were marked differences in association strength in these cities,among which the effect in Guangzhou was strongest.At multi-city level,a 10 μg/m3 increase of PM2.5 was associated with an increase of 0.315％ (95％CI:0.133％-0.497％) of daily cardiovascular disease mortality.From lag0 to lag2,the effect of PM2.5 on cardiovascular disease mortality decreased,while it was strongest on lag01.In the two-pollutant model,the estimated effect decreased in all the cities with the adjustments of SO2 or NO2.The insignificant combined results suggested that PM2.5 might have combined effect with other pollutants.Each 10 μg/m3 increase of PM2.5 was associated with increases of 0.371％ (95％CI:0.141％-0.600％) and 0.199％ (95％ CI:0.077％-0.321％) of cardiovascular disease mortality in males and females,respectively.The effect of PM2.5 on cardiovascular disease mortality increased with age and decreased with educational level,although the differences between different subgroups were insignificant.The dose-response relationship between PM2.5 and cardiovascular disease mortality was non-linear and non-threshold,with a steeper curve at lower concentrations.Conclusion The increases of PM2.5 concentration can result in the increase of daily cardiovascular mortality.

Subnational analysis of probability of premature mortality caused by four main non-communicable diseases in China during 1990-2015 and " Health China 2030" reduction target / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective@#To investigate the current status, temporal trend and achieving Health China 2030 reduction target of probability of premature mortality caused by four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs) including cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, tumour, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease in China both at national and provincial level during 1990 to 2015.@*Methods@#Using the results of Global Burden of Disease study 2015 (GBD 2015), according to the method of calculating premature mortality probability recommended by WHO, the current status and temporal trend by different gender from 1990 to 2015 were calculated, analyzed, and compared. Referring to " Health China 2030" target of reduction 30% of probability of premature mortality caused by major NCDs, we evaluated the difficulty of achieving the reduction target among provinces (not including Taiwan).@*Results@#From 1990 to 2015, the probabilities of premature mortality in cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, tumour, and chronic respiratory disease were all declined consistently for both men and women in China, the total of four main NCDs decreased from 30.69% to 18.54% with higher decreasing in women (from 25.97% to 12.40%) than that in men (from 34.94% to 24.19%). In 2015, the top five provinces in terms of probability of premature mortality caused by four main NCDs were Qinghai (28.81%), Tibet (25.88%), Guizhou (24.67%), Guangxi (23.56%), and Xinjiang (23.21%) in turn, while the top five provinces with the lowest probability were Shanghai (8.40%), Beijing (9.39%), Hong Kong (10.10%), Macao (10.31%), and Zhejiang (11.70%). If achieving the " Health China 2030" target, the probabilities of premature mortality in Qinghai and Tibet with the highest probability should decline to about 20.17%, and 18.12%, respectively in 2030, while 5.88%, and 6.57% in Shanghai and Beijing, respectively. From 1990 to 2015, the probability of premature mortality of four main NCDs declined by 2.00% a year on average, the top five provinces with the fastest decline were Beijing (3.48%), Shanghai (3.24%), Zhejiang (2.81%), Fujian (2.75%), and Guangdong (2.67%), and 11 provinces including these five provinces could achieve the " Health China 2030" target by the usual rate of decline, while other 22 provinces could not achieve the target, they need greater rate of decline in order to achieve the target.@*Conclusion@#From 1990 to 2015, the probabilities of premature mortality of four main NCDs were declined consistently in China both at national and provincial level, compared with women, the men had higher probabilities and declined slower, there were significant different in probabilities of premature mortality and their change speed among provinces. Based on the results from 1990 to 2015, there were about two thirds of the provinces, which the task of achieving the Health China 2030 target will be daunting.

Disease burden attributable to household air pollution in 1990 and 2013 in China / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective@#To assess the disease burden attributable to household air pollution in 1990 and 2013 in China.@*Methods@#Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 in China (GBD 2013), we used population attributable fractions (PAF) to analyze the burden of different diseases attributable to solid-fuel household pollution in 2013 in China(not inclnding HongKang, Macao, Taiwan). We compared PAF, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) for diseases attributable to solid-fuel household pollution in 31 provinces in mainland China in 1990 and 2013, and stratified the burden by age group. The estimated world average population during 2000- 2025 was used to calculate age-standardized mortality and DALY rates.@*Results@#In 2013, 14.9% of lower respiratory infections in children <5, 32.5% of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), 12.0% of ischemic stroke, 14.2% of hemorrhagic stroke, 10.9% of ischemic heart disease, and 13.7% of lung cancer were attributable to solid-fuel household pollution. In addition, 807 000 deaths were attributable to solid-fuel household pollution, including 296 000 from COPD, 169 000 from hemorrhagic stroke, 152 000 from ischemic heart disease, 88 000 from ischemic stroke, 75 000 from lung cancer, and 28 000 from lower respiratory infections in children <5. The age-standardized mortality rate from solid-fuel household pollution decreased by 59.3% from 158.8/100 000 in 1990 to 64.6/100 000 in 2013. The age-standardized mortality rate from solid-fuel household pollution decreased in all 31 provinces, with the highest decline observed in Shanghai (96.3%), and lowest in Xinjiang (39.9%). In 2013, the age-standardized DALY rate from solid-fuel household pollution was highest in Guizhou (2 233.0/100 000) and lowest in Shanghai (27.0/100 000). The DALY rate was the highest for the >70 age group (7 006.0/100 000). Compared with 1990, the 2013 mortality rate and DALY rate from solid-fuel household pollution decreased in all age groups, with the highest decline observed in the <5 age group (91.9% and 91.8% , respectively).@*Conclusion@#Although the disease burden attributable to household air pollution decreased notably between 1990 and 2013, household pollution caused a high number of deaths and DALY loss in certain western provinces.

Estimation of the impact of risk factors control on non-communicable diseases mortality, life expectancy and the labor force lost in China in 2030 / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective@#To estimate the impact of risk factors control on non-communicable diseases (NCDs) mortality, life expectancy and the numbers of labor force lost in China in 2030.@*Methods@#We used the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2013, according to the correlation between death of NCDs and exposure of risk factors and the comparative risk assessment theory, to calculate population attributable fraction (PAF) and disaggregate deaths of NCDs into parts attributable and un-attributable. We used proportional change model to project risk factors exposure and un-attributable deaths of NCDs in 2030, then to get deaths of NCDs in 2030. Simulated scenarios according to the goals of global main NCDs risk factors control proposed by WHO were constructed to calculate the impact of risk factors control on NCDs death, life expectancy and the numbers of labor force lost.@*Results@#If the risk factors exposure changed according to the trend of 1990 to 2013, compared to the numbers (8.499 million) and mortality rate (613.5/100 000) of NCDs in 2013, the death number (12.161 million) and mortality rate (859.2/100 000) would increase by 43.1% and 40.0% respectively in 2030, among which, ischemic stroke (increasing by 103.3% for death number and 98.8% for mortality rate) and ischemic heart disease (increasing by 85.0% for death number and 81.0% for mortality rate) would increase most quickly. If the risk factors get the goals in 2030, the NCDs deaths would reduce 2 631 thousands. If only one risk factor gets the goal, blood pressure (1 484 thousands NCDs deaths reduction), smoking (717 thousands reduction) and BMI (274 thousands reduction) would be the most important factors affecting NCDs death. Blood pressure control would have greater impact on ischemic heart disease (662 thousands reduction) and hemorrhagic stroke (449 thousands reduction). Smoking control would have the greatest effect on lung cancer (251 thousands reduction) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (201 thousands reduction). BMI control would have the greatest impact on ischemic heart disease (86 thousands reduction) and hypertensive heart disease (45 thousands reduction). If the risk factors exposure changed according to the trend of 1990 to 2013, in 2030, the life expectancy of Chinese population would reach to 79.0 years old, compared to 2013, increasing by 3.3 years old, the labor force at the age of 15-64 years old would loss 1.932 million. If the risk factors get the goals in 2030, life expectancy would increase to 81.7 years old and the number of labor force lost would decrease to 1.467 million. Blood pressure, smoking and BMI control would have much greater impact on life expectancy (4.9, 4.0 and 3.8 years old respectively) and labor force lost (630 thousands, 496 thousands and 440 thousands respectively).@*Conclusion@#Risk factors control would play an important role in reducing NCD death, improving life expectancy of residents and reducing loss of labor force. Among them, the control of blood pressure raising, smoking and BMI raising would have a greater contribution to the improvement of population health status.

Disease burden of liver cancer in the Chinese population, in 1990 and 2013 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To analyze the disease burden of liver cancer in the Chinese population in 1990 and 2013.Methods Data from Global Burden of Diseases 2013 (GBD2013) was used to analyze the disease burden of liver cancer in China.The main outcome measurements would include mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALY).Again,GBD global standard population in 2013 was used as the reference population to calculate the age-standardized rate.Related changes on percentage from 1990 to 2013 were calculated to analyze the changing patterns of disease burden for liver cancer in China.Results In 2013,a total of 358 100 people died of liver cancer,with the crude death rate as 25.85/100 000,in China.Number of deaths due to liver cancer secondary to hepatitis B was 163 600 (accounting for 45.69％).Number of deaths due to liver cancer secondary to hepatitis C was 134 200 (accounting for 37.48％) with DALY due to liver cancer appeared as 40.80 million person years.In 2013,the leading causes of DALY related to liver cancer was liver cancer secondary to hepatitis B,followed by liver cancer secondary to hepatitis C,liver cancer secondary to alcohol use,other liver cancers,with related DALYs as 4 652.0,3 394.3,964.3 and 592.1 thousands person years,respectively.The disease burdens of liver cancer secondary to various kinds of liver cancer were significantly higher in males than in females.Compared with 1990,the standardized mortality of liver cancer reduced by 25.00％,the DALY attributable to liver cancer increased by 16.95％ and the standardized DALY rate attributable to liver cancer reduced by 33.47％.The burden of liver cancer secondary to hepatitis C became more serious and the standardized death rate increased by 106.18％,together with the standardized DALY rate increased by 91.68％ in the past 23 years.Disease burden of liver cancer among young adults and the elderly were most serious.When comparing with the data in 1990,the standardized DALY rate showed declining trend in all the age groups,with the most seen in the 5-14 year group.The standardized DALY rate,secondary to hepatitis B had a 46.37％ decrease in the 5-14 year olds.The standardized DALY rate secondary to hepatitis C showed an increasing trend in all the age groups.Conclusions Liver cancer had been one of the serious diseases that causing heavy disease burden in China.In recent years,the disease burden of liver cancer secondary to hepatitis B decreased but the disease burden of liver cancer secondary to hepatitis C significantly increased.Disease burden on liver cancer in male population was significantly higher than that in females,showing that related targeted prevention and control measures should be imminently carried out.