Methodological proposal for the redistribution of deaths due to garbage codes in mortality estimates for Noncommunicable Chronic Diseases / Proposta metodológica para redistribuição de óbitos por causas garbage nas estimativas de mortalidade para doenças crônicas não transmissíveis

ABSTRACT: Objective: To propose a method for improving mortality estimates from noncommunicable diseases (NCD), including the redistribution of garbage codes in Brazilian municipalities. Methods: Brazilian Mortality Information System (MIS) was used as a data source to estimate age standardized mortality rates, before and after correction, for NCD (cardiovascular, chronic respiratory, diabetes, and neoplasms). The treatment for the correction of data addressed missing data, under-registration, and redistribution of garbage codes (GCs). Three-year periods 2010-2012 and 2015-2017, and the Bayesian method were used to estimate mortality rates, reducing the effect of fluctuation caused by small numbers at the municipal level. Results: GCs redistribution step showed greater weight in corrections, about 40% in 2000 and roughly 20% as from 2007, with stabilization starting in this year. Throughout the historical series, the quality of information on causes of death has improved in Brazil, with heterogeneous results being observed among municipalities. Conclusion: Methodological studies that propose correction and improvement of the MIS are essential for monitoring mortality rates due to NCD at regional levels. The methodological proposal applied, for the first time in real data from Brazilian municipalities, is challenging and deserves further improvements. Improving the quality of the data is essential in order to build more accurate estimates based on the raw data from the SIM.

RESUMO: Objetivo: Propor método para melhoria das estimativas de mortalidade por doenças crônicas não transmissíveis, incluindo a redistribuição de causas garbage nos municípios brasileiros. Métodos: O Sistema de Informações sobre Mortalidade foi utilizado como fonte de dados para estimar as taxas padronizadas por idade, antes e depois da correção de dados, para as doenças crônicas não transmissíveis (cardiovasculares, respiratórias crônicas, diabetes e neoplasias). O tratamento para correção dos dados abordou dados faltantes, sub-registro e redistribuição de causas garbage. Foram utilizados os triênios 2010-2012 e 2015-2017 e o método bayesiano para estimar as taxas de mortalidade, diminuindo-se o efeito da flutuação provocada pelos pequenos números no nível municipal. Resultados: A etapa de redistribuição causas garbage mostrou maior peso nas correções: cerca de 40% em 2000 e aproximadamente 20% a partir de 2007, com estabilização neste ano. Ao longo da série histórica, a qualidade da informação sobre causas de morte melhorou no Brasil, sendo vistos resultados heterogêneos nos municípios. Observaram-se clusters com as maiores proporções de correção nas regiões Nordeste e Norte. O diabetes foi a causa com maior proporção de acréscimo (mais de 40%, em 2000). Conclusão: Estudos metodológicos que propõem correção e melhoria do Sistema de Informação sobre Mortalidade são essenciais para o monitoramento das taxas de mortalidade por doenças crônicas não transmissíveis em níveis regionais. A proposta metodológica aplicada, pela primeira vez em dados reais de municípios brasileiros, é desafiadora e merece aprimoramentos. Apesar da melhora nos dados, o método utilizado neste estudo para tratamento dos dados brutos mostrou grande impacto nas estimativas finais.

The potential impact of austerity on attainment of the Sustainable Development Goals in Brazil

In the recent decades, Brazil has outperformed comparable countries in its progress toward meeting the Millennium Development Goals. Many of these improvements have been driven by investments in health and social policies. In this article, we aim to identify potential impacts of austerity policies in Brazil on the chances of achieving the sustainable development goals (SDGs) and its consequences for population health. Austerity's anticipated impacts are assessed by analysing the change in federal spending on different budget programmes from 2014 to 2017. We collected budget data made publicly available by the Senate. Among the selected 19 programmes, only 4 had their committed budgets increased, in real terms, between 2014 and 2017. The total amount of extra money committed to these four programmes in 2017, above that committed in 2014, was small (BR$9.7 billion). Of the 15 programmes that had budget cuts in the period from 2014 to 2017, the total decrease amounted to BR$60.2 billion (US$15.3 billion). In addition to the overall large budget reduction, it is noteworthy that the largest proportional reductions were in programmes targeted at more vulnerable populations. In conclusion, it seems clear that the current austerity policies in Brazil will probably damage the population's health and increase inequities, and that the possibility of meeting SDG targets is lower in 2018 than it was in 2015.

Area deprivation measures used in Brazil: a scoping review

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To describe and assess currently used area-based measures of deprivation in Brazil for health research, to the purpose of informing the development of a future small area deprivation index. METHODS We searched five electronic databases and seven websites of Brazilian research institutions and governmental agencies. Inclusion criteria were: studies proposing measures of deprivation for small areas (i.e., finer geography than country-level) in Brazil, published in English, Portuguese or Spanish. After data-extraction, results were tabulated according to the area level the deprivation measure was created for and to the dimensions of deprivation or poverty included in the measures. A narrative synthesis approach was used to summarize the measures available, highlighting their utility for public health research. RESULTS A total of 7,199 records were retrieved, 126 full-text articles were assessed after inclusion criteria and a final list of 30 articles was selected. No small-area deprivation measures that have been applied to the whole of Brazil were found. Existing measures were mainly used to study infectious and parasitic diseases. Few studies used the measures to assess inequalities in mortality and no studies used the deprivation measure to evaluate the impact of social programs. CONCLUSIONS No up-to-date small area-based deprivation measure in Brazil covers the whole country. There is a need to develop such an index for Brazil to measure and monitor inequalities in health and mortality, particularly to assess progress in Brazil against the Sustainable Development Goal targets for different health outcomes, showing progress by socioeconomic groups.

Medidas de austeridade fiscal comprometem metas de controle de doenças não transmissíveis no Brasil / Fiscal austerity measures hamper noncommunicable disease control goals in Brazil

Resumo Tendo em vista a Emenda Constitucional 95 e a crise econômica, são discutidos os possíveis efeitos que as medidas de austeridade podem ter no cumprimento das metas estabelecidas para o controle das doenças crônicas não transmissíveis (DCNT) no Brasil. As tendências de DCNT e os fatores de risco foram analisadas, de acordo com os dados de levantamentos epidemiológicos e os de mortalidade do estudo Global Burden of Disease. Os resultados indicam uma tendência de estabilidade nas taxas de mortalidade por DCNT em 2015 e 2016. Os brasileiros com baixa escolaridade, em geral, apresentam maior prevalência de fatores de risco e menor de fatores de proteção. Entre 2015 e 2017, tendências anteriormente favoráveis foram revertidas para indicadores como consumo de frutas e vegetais, atividade física, estabilização das taxas de uso de tabaco e aumento do consumo de álcool. Conclui-se que, se tais tendências forem mantidas, o Brasil poderá não cumprir as metas previamente acordadas em conjunto com a Organização Mundial de Saúde e as Nações Unidas para reduzir as DCNT e seus fatores de risco .

Abstract Given the Constitutional Amendment 95 and the economic crisis, we discussed the possible effects of austerity measures on the achievement of the goals established for the control of chronic noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in the country. The trends of NCDs and risk factors were analyzed, according to data from epidemiological surveys and mortality data from the Global Burden of Disease study. The resultsindicate a trend of stability in mortality rates by NCD in 2015 and 2016. Brazilians with low schooling, in general, have a higher prevalence of risk factors and a lower prevalence of protective factors. In the 2015-2017 period, previously favorable trends reversed for indicators such as fruit and vegetable consumption and physical activity, tobacco trends stabilized, and alcohol intake increased. In conclusion, should these trends be maintained, it is unlikely that Brazil will achieve the goals previously agreed upon with the World Health Organization and the United Nations to curb NCDs and their risk factors.