RESUMO
BACKGROUND: A decade after the detection of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in India, a steady increase in the number of patients with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) has been observed. The therapeutic options for patients with AIDS in developing countries include chemoprophylaxis and identifying and treating opportunistic infections. CD4 counts help in clinical monitoring and making decisions about initiating antiretroviral therapy or chemoprophylaxis. Flowcytometry is expensive and available only at specialized laboratories. Therefore, the possibility of using clinical indicators to predict low CD4 counts and disease progression needs to be explored. METHODS: This cross-sectional study was conducted among 137 HIV-infected persons investigated at an HIV reference centre in Pune. The study methods comprised pre-test counselling, informed consent, blood withdrawal and clinical evaluation. Serum samples were tested for HIV and CD4 counts were estimated on FACSort. RESULTS: Study participants commonly reported with oral candidiasis, herpes zoster, pulmonary tuberculosis, lymphadenopathy, weight loss, rash, diarrhoea and fever. CD4 counts were significantly lower among men, symptomatic patients and those with oral candidiasis, weight loss and multiple clinical conditions. The sensitivity of most of the clinical conditions was low, the specificity was high and the positive predictive value of oral candidiasis and weight loss for low CD4 counts was > 75%. CONCLUSION: The presence of oral candidiasis and weight loss were highly predictive of low CD4 counts and these can be considered as markers of HIV disease progression. Absence of clinical conditions was found to be a good predictor of high CD4 counts. Larger systematic natural history studies may help in identifying clinical conditions that could have a prognostic significance among HIV-infected people.