RESUMO
Epidemics of meningococcal meningitis occur in areas with particular environmental characteristics. We present evidence that the relationship between the environment and the location of these epidemics is quantifiable and propose a model based on environmental variables to identify regions at risk for meningitis epidemics. These findings; which have substantial implications for directing surveillance activities and health policy; provide a basis for monitoring the impact of climate variability and environmental change on epidemic occurrence in Africa. The timing of future outbreaks is unpredictable; tools that identify the key environmental factors associated with areas prone to meningitis pidemics would help us to understand the basis for these outbreaks and eventually optimize prevention and control activities. We describe a model that predicts the probability; based on environmental information; of an area experiencing an epidemic of meningitis