Spatial patterns of prematurity and its determinants in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil, 2010-2019 / Padrões espaciais da prematuridade e seus determinantes na região metropolitana de São Paulo, Brasil, 2010-2019

ABSTRACT Objective: To analyze spatial distribution of preterm births and their association with maternal, social, and health services indicators in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil, 2010-2019. Methods: Ecological study using data on preterm newborns from 39 municipalities in the metropolitan region of São Paulo. Univariate global Moran's index (Im) was used to evaluate spatial association of prematurity, and univariate local Moran's index by using the cluster map (LISA) to identify spatial patterns and clusters. Bivariate global Moran's index was also used to analyze spatial autocorrelation with maternal, social, and health services indicators. Results: A total of 3,103,898 live births were registered in period 2010-2019, of which 331,174 (10.7%) were preterm. The global Moran's index showed spatial independence (Im=0.05; p-value=0.233) of the proportion of preterm births between municipalities. However, in the local spatial analysis it was possible to identify a statistically significant spatial cluster between the municipalities of Biritiba Mirim, Guararema and Salesópolis, with high proportions of preterm births. In the bivariate analysis, a significant positive spatial association was identified with proportions of mothers under 20 years old (Im=0.17; p-value=0.024) and mothers with low schooling (Im=0.17; p-value=0.020), and a significant negative spatial association with HDI (Im=-0.14; p-value=0.039). Conclusions: The local spatial approach identified a spatial cluster located in the far east of the metropolitan region of São Paulo, where actions by health managers are needed to minimize occurrence of preterm births.

RESUMO Objetivo: Analisar a distribuição espacial dos nascimentos prematuros e sua associação com indicadores maternos, sociais e de serviços de saúde na região metropolitana de São Paulo, Brasil, 2010-2019. Métodos: Estudo ecológico utilizando dados sobre recém-nascidos pré-termo dos 39 municípios da região metropolitana de São Paulo. Utilizou-se o índice de Moran (Im) global univariado para avaliar a associação espacial da prematuridade, e o índice de Moran local univariado por meio do mapa de clusters (LISA) para a identificação de padrões e aglomerados espaciais. Também foi utilizado o índice de Moran global bivariado para analisar a autocorrelação espacial com os indicadores maternos, sociais e de serviços de saúde. Resultados: Foram registrados 3.103.898 nascidos vivos no período 2010-2019, dos quais 331.174 (10,7%) foram prematuros. O índice de Moran global mostrou independência espacial (Im=0,05; p-valor=0,233) da proporção dos nascimentos prematuros entre municípios. No entanto, na análise espacial local foi possível identificar aglomerado espacial estatisticamente significativo entre os municípios de Biritiba Mirim, Guararema e Salesópolis, com proporções altas de nascimentos pré-termo. Na análise bivariada, identificou-se associação espacial significativa positiva com proporções de mães menores de 20 anos (Im=0,17; p-valor=0,024) e mães com baixa escolaridade (Im=0,17; p-valor=0,020), e associação espacial significativa negativa com IDH (Im=-0,14; p-valor=0,039). Conclusão: A abordagem espacial local identificou agrupamento espacial situado no extremo leste da região metropolitana de São Paulo, onde ações dos gestores de saúde são necessárias para minimizar a ocorrência de partos prematuros.

Association between exposure to air pollutants and hospitalization for SARS-Cov-2: an ecological time-series study

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Exposure to air pollutants and illness by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-Cov-2) infection can cause serious pulmonary impairment. OBJECTIVE: To identify a possible association between exposure to air pollutants and hospitalizations due to SARS-Cov-2. DESIGN AND SETTING: Ecological time-series study carried out in Taubaté, Tremembé, and Pindamonhangaba in 2020 and 2021. METHODS: Study with Sars-Cov-2 hospitalizations with information on hospitalization date, sex and age of the subjects, duration of hospitalization, type of discharge, and costs of these hospitalizations. Statistical analysis was performed through a negative binomial regression, with data on pollutant concentrations, temperature, air relative humidity, and hospitalization date. Coefficients obtained by the analysis were transformed into relative risk for hospitalization, which estimated hospitalizations excess according to an increase in pollutant concentrations. RESULTS: There were 1,300 hospitalizations and 368 deaths, with a predominance of men (61.7%). These data represent an incidence rate of 250.4 per 100,000 inhabitants and 28.4% hospital lethality. Significant exposure (P value < 0.05) occurred seven days before hospital admission (lag 7) for nitrogen dioxide (NO2) (relative risk, RR = 1.0124) and two days before hospital admission for PM2.5 (RR = 1.0216). A 10 μg/m3 in NO2 concentration would decrease by 320 hospitalizations and ¼ US $ 240,000 in costs; a 5 μg/m3 in PM2.5 concentration would decrease by 278 hospitalizations and ¼ US $ 190,000 in costs. CONCLUSION: An association between exposure to air pollutants and hospital admission due to Sars-Cov-2 was observed with excess hospitalization and costs for the Brazilian public health system.

Spatial patterns of mortality in low birth weight infants at term and its determinants in the State of São Paulo, Brazil / Padrões espaciais de mortalidade em recém-nascidos de baixo peso a termo e seus determinantes no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil

ABSTRACT Objective: Low birth weight (LBW) is a public health problem strongly associated with infant mortality. This study aimed to identify the spatial distribution of infant mortality in newborns with LBW (750-2,500 g) at term (≥37 weeks of gestation), due to their being small for gestational age, analyzing its association with mother-related determinants, as well as to identify priority areas of mortality in the State of São Paulo, 2010-2019. Methods: Infant mortality rate was analyzed in the division of neonatal mortality and postneonatal mortality of newborns with LBW at term. The empirical Bayesian method smoothed the rates, the univariate Moran index was used to measure the degree of spatial association between the municipalities, and the bivariate Moran index was employed to identify the existence of a spatial association between the rates and the selected determinants. Thematic maps of excess risk and local Moran were prepared to identify spatial clusters, adopting 5% as a significance level. Results: The excess risk map showed that more than 30% of the municipalities had rates above the state rate. High-risk clusters were identified in the southwest, southeast, and east regions, mainly among more developed municipalities. The determinants of adolescent mothers, mothers over 34 years of age, low education, human development index, social vulnerability index, gross domestic product, physicians, and pediatric beds showed a significant association with the rates evaluated. Conclusions: Priority areas and significant determinants associated with reduced mortality in newborns with LBW were identified, suggesting the need for intervention measures to achieve the Sustainable Development Goal.

RESUMO Objetivo: O baixo peso ao nascer (BPN) é um problema de saúde pública e está fortemente associado à mortalidade infantil. Este estudo teve como objetivo identificar a distribuição espacial da mortalidade infantil em recém-nascidos com BPN (750-2.500 g) a termo (≥37 semanas de gestação), por serem pequenos para a idade gestacional, analisando sua associação com determinantes relacionados à mãe, bem como identificar áreas prioritárias de mortalidade no Estado de São Paulo, 2010-2019. Métodos: A taxa de mortalidade infantil foi analisada na divisão da mortalidade neonatal e mortalidade pós-neonatal de recém-nascidos com BPN a termo. O método bayesiano empírico alisou as taxas, o índice de Moran univariado foi utilizado para medir o grau de associação espacial entre os municípios e o índice de Moran bivariado foi empregado para identificar a existência de associação espacial entre as taxas e os determinantes selecionados. Mapas temáticos de excesso de risco e Moran local foram elaborados para identificar aglomerados espaciais, adotando-se 5% como nível de significância. Resultados: O mapa de excesso de risco mostrou que mais de 30% dos municípios apresentaram taxas acima da taxa estadual. Aglomerados de alto risco foram identificados nas regiões sudoeste, sudeste e leste, principalmente entre os municípios mais desenvolvidos. Os determinantes mães adolescentes, mães acima de 34 anos, baixa escolaridade, índice de desenvolvimento humano, índice de vulnerabilidade social, produto interno bruto, médicos e leitos pediátricos apresentaram associação significativa com as taxas avaliadas. Conclusões: Foram identificadas áreas prioritárias e determinantes significativos associados à redução da mortalidade em recém-nascidos com BPN, sugerindo a necessidade de medidas de intervenção para atingir o Objetivo de Desenvolvimento Sustentável.

SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and adolescents: a Brazilian experience / Infecção pelo SARS-CoV-2 em crianças e adolescentes: uma experiência brasileira

Abstract Objective: To describe clinical and epidemiological aspects of children and adolescents infected with the SARS-CoV-2 in the Municipality of Taubaté, SP, from March to November 2020. Methods: Cross-sectional study with secondary data obtained from the Epidemiological Surveillance System about confirmed cases in city residents and from medical records of patients who were treated in hospitals in Taubaté, aged between 0 and 19 years. Chi-square and Student's t tests were used for comparisons. Results: 677 cases in the studied age range were reported during the study period, corresponding to 10.1% of cases reported in the municipality. The rapid antibody test was the most used to confirm infection, followed by RT-PCR and serology. Symptoms were described in 57.7% of the cases, mainly fever and cough. Diarrhea was associated with age below 4 years, while fever, cough, headache, odynophagia, ageusia, anosmia, myalgia, and dyspnea were associated with an age ranging from 10 to 19 years. In the study period, there were no deaths from COVID-19 of residents of the municipality in the age group from 0 to 19 years. Conclusions: The study was able to identify the proportion of involvement of COVID-19 in children and adolescents in the city, and the disease had a mild evolution. The main symptoms were fever and cough, but mainly diarrhea in younger children, and headache, odynophagia, anosmia, ageusia, and myalgia in adolescents.

RESUMO Objetivo: Descrever aspectos clínicos e epidemiológicos de crianças e adolescentes infectados pelo SARS-CoV-2 no município de Taubaté (SP) de março a novembro de 2020. Métodos: Estudo transversal com dados secundários obtidos no Setor de Vigilância Epidemiológica de casos confirmados em residentes do município e consulta de prontuários de pacientes que foram atendidos em hospitais de Taubaté, com idade entre 0 e 19 anos. Realizaram-se os testes de qui-quadrado, comparação de proporções e t de Student, sendo considerados nível de significância alfa <5%. Resultados: Notificaram-se 677 casos no período estudado, correspondendo a 10,1% do total de casos notificados no município. O teste rápido de anticorpos foi o teste mais utilizado, seguido de RT-PCR e sorologia. Sintomas foram descritos em 57,7% dos casos, sendo febre e tosse os mais frequentes. Diarreia apresentou associação com faixa etária < 4 anos, e febre, tosse, cefaleia, odinofagia, ageusia, anosmia, mialgia e dispneia tiveram associação com faixa etária de 10 a 19 anos. No período estudado, não ocorreu nenhum óbito por COVID-19 na faixa etária de 0 a 19 anos de residentes do município. Conclusões: O estudo conseguiu identificar a proporção de acometimento da COVID-19 em crianças e adolescentes no município, e a doença teve comportamento leve e boa evolução. Os principais sintomas foram febre e tosse, destacando-se diarreia nas crianças mais jovens e cefaleia, odinofagia, anosmia, ageusia e mialgia nos adolescentes.

Years of life lost due to premature deaths associated with air pollution: an ecological time-series study

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Exposure to air pollutants is associated with hospital admissions due to cardiovascular diseases and premature deaths. OBJECTIVE: To estimate years of life lost (YLL) due to premature deaths and their financial costs. DESIGN AND SETTING: Ecological time-series study carried out in São José dos Campos, Brazil, in 2016. METHODS: Data on deaths among residents of this city in 2016 were assessed to estimate the financial cost of premature deaths associated with air pollution. The diagnoses studied were ischemic heart disease, congestive heart failure and cerebrovascular disease, according to YLL. The fractions attributable to deaths associated with air pollutant exposure and to each potential year of life lost were calculated using negative binomial regression with lags of 0-7 days between exposure and outcome. Nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter (PM10) and ozone concentrations were included in the model and adjusted for temperature, humidity and seasonality. RESULTS: Exposure to particulate matter was significant at lag 3 days. There were 2177 hospitalizations over the study period, with 201 deaths (9.2%). Premature deaths led to 2035.69 years of life lost. A 10 μg/m3 increase in PM10 concentrations was correlated with 8.0% of the hospitalizations, which corresponded to 152.67 YLL (81.67 for males and 71.00 for females). The cost generated was approximately US$ 9.1 million in 2016. CONCLUSION: In this first study conducted in a medium-sized Brazilian city, using the YLL methodology, we identified an excess expense attributable to air pollution.

Congenital syphilis in the paraíba valley using a spatial approach / Sífilis congênita no vale do paraíba sob enfoque espacial

ABSTRACT Objective: To compare spatial patterns of congenital syphilis (CS) with those of socioeconomic and medical variables in Paraíba Valley, São Paulo, between 2012 and 2016. Methods: Ecological and exploratory study developed using spatial analysis tools, with information on CS cases obtained from official data reports. Rates were found for CS cases per 1,000 live births, number of family health teams and pediatricians available in the health system per 100,000 inhabitants, and social vulnerability index values. Thematic maps were constructed with these variables and compared using TerraView 4.2.2 software. Estimated global Moran (IM) indexes were calculated. In order to detect areas with priority attention regarding the incidence of CS, BoxMaps were developed. The Spearman correlation was estimated for the variable values and compared using the Kruskal-Wallis test. P <0.05 was significant. Results: 144,613 births and 870 CS cases (6.04/1000 live births) occurred during the study period. The average value of CS rates per municipality was 4.0±4.1, (0.0-17.6/1000 live births). Higher CS rates occurred in municipalities of the Upper Vale do Paraíba, contrary to the proportions of pediatricians who were in the far east of the region. The thematic maps of the variables presented a mosaic aspect, which characterized the random distribution of the variables. The IM were not significant. No significant correlation was found between the variables. The BoxMap identified eight municipalities with high CS rates. Conclusions: Even though it was not possible to identify a spatial pattern of CS rates, it was shown that eight municipalities deserve the attention of city managers.

RESUMO Objetivo: Comparar padrões espaciais da sífilis congênita (SC) com os de variáveis socioeconômicas e médicas no Vale do Paraíba paulista nos anos de 2012 a 2016. Métodos: Estudo ecológico e exploratório, utilizando ferramentas da análise espacial, com informações sobre casos de SC obtidas do Sistema de Informação de Agravos de Notificação (SINAN) e criadas taxas de casos de SC por 1.000 nascidos vivos (NV), de números de Equipes de Saúde da Família e de pediatras atendendo na rede por 100 mil habitantes e de valores do índice de vulnerabilidade social. Foram construídos mapas temáticos com essas taxas, para comparação entre elas, por meio do programa TerraView 4.2.2, e estimaram-se índices de Moran global (IM) para essas variáveis. Para detectar áreas com prioridade de atenção para a incidência de SC, foi construído Box Map. Estipulou-se a correlação de Spearman para os valores das variáveis, os quais foram comparados pelo teste de Kruskal-Wallis. Adotou-se erro alfa=5%. Resultados: Ocorreram 144.613 nascimentos no período e 870 casos de SC (6,04/1.000 NV); o valor médio das taxas por município foi de 4,0±4,1 (0,0-17,6/1.000 NV). Maiores taxas de SC ocorreram em municípios do Alto Vale do Paraíba, ao contrário das maiores proporções de pediatras, que se encontravam no extremo leste da região. Os mapas temáticos das variáveis apresentaram aspecto de mosaico, que caracteriza distribuição aleatória das variáveis, e os IM não foram significativos. Não houve correlação significativa entre as variáveis, e o Box Map identificou oito municípios que apresentavam altas taxas de SC. Conclusões: Não houve semelhanças entre os padrões espaciais das taxas de SC e demais variáveis, mas identificaram-se oito municípios que merecem atenção dos gestores municipais.

Maternal exposure to benzene and toluene and preterm birth. A longitudinal study

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Exposure to air pollutants has several effects on human health, including during pregnancy. OBJECTIVE: To identify whether exposure to benzene and toluene among pregnant women contributes to preterm delivery. DESIGN AND SETTING: Longitudinal study using data on newborns from mothers living in São José dos Campos (SP) in 2016, who had been exposed to benzene and toluene. METHODS: A logistic regression model with three hierarchical levels was constructed using maternal variables relating to newborns, and using benzene and toluene concentrations in quartiles. Occurrences of cesarean births, twins or malformations were excluded. Maternal exposure windows of 5, 10, 15, 30, 60 and 90 days prior to delivery were considered. RESULTS: Out of the 9,562 live births, 3,671 newborns were included and 343 newborns were born at less than 37 weeks of gestation (9.3%). The average birth weight was 3,167.2 g. Exposure to benzene and toluene was significantly associated (P = 0.04) with preterm delivery in the five-day window. There was no association in any of the other exposure windows. CONCLUSIONS: It was possible to identify that maternal exposure to benzene and toluene has an acute effect on preterm delivery.

Different response to exposure to air pollutants in girls and boys / Exposição a poluentes do ar e doença respiratória em meninos e meninas

ABSTRACT Objective: Identify the association between exposure to fine particulate matter and hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases in children up to ten years of age in the city of Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, stratifying the analysis by sex and calculating excess costs. Methods: Ecological study of time series. The dependent variable was daily hospitalizations according to the 10th Revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD10): J04.0, J12.0 to J18.9, J20.0 to J21.9 and J45.0 to J45.0. The independent variables were the concentration of fine particulate, estimated by a mathematical model, temperature and relative air humidity, controlled by short and long-term trends. Generalized additive model of Poisson regression was used. Relative risks, proportional attributable risk (PAR) and excess hospitalizations and their respective costs by the population attributable fraction (PAF) were calculated. Results: 1,165 children were hospitalized, 640 males and 525 females. The mean concentration, estimated by the mathematical model, was 15.1±2.9 mcg/m3 for PM2.5. For boys, there was no significant association; for girls a relative risk of up to 1.04 of daily hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases was observed for exposure to PM 2.5 in lags 1, 2 and 6. Increase of 5 µg/m3 in these concentrations increased the percentage of the risk in 18%; with an excess 95 hospital admissions and with excess expenses in the order of US$ 35 thousand. Conclusions: Significant effect in daily hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases related to exposure to fine particulate matter was noted for girls, suggesting the need for stratification by sex in further studies.

RESUMO Objetivo: Identificar associação entre exposição ao material particulado fino e internações por doenças respiratórias em crianças de até dez anos de idade, no município de Cuiabá, MT, estratificando a análise por sexo e calculando excesso de custos. Métodos: Estudo ecológico de séries temporais, sendo a variável dependente o número diário de internações por doenças respiratórias, segundo a 10a Revisão da Classificação Internacional de Doenças (CID): J04.0, J12.0 a J18.9, J20.0 a J21.9 e J45.0 a J45.0. As variáveis independentes foram a concentração do particulado fino, estimada pelo modelo matemático, além de temperatura e umidade relativa do ar, controladas pelas tendências de curta e longa duração. Foram calculados riscos relativos, risco atribuível proporcional (RAP) e excessos de internações e seus respectivos custos pela fração atribuível populacional (FAP). Resultados: Foram internadas 1.165 crianças (640 meninos e 525 meninas). A concentração média estimada do particulado fino foi 15,1±2,9 mcg/m3 para particulado fino (PM2,5). Para meninos, não houve associação significativa. Para meninas, observou-se risco relativo (RR) de até 1,04 para o número diário de internações por doenças respiratórias em associação à exposição ao PM2,5 nos lags 1, 2 e 6. O aumento de 5 mcg/m3 nessas concentrações associou-se ao aumento do risco em 18% e o RAP atribuído à exposição foi de 20% das internações das meninas, com excesso de 95 internações e de gastos da ordem de R$ 105 mil. Conclusões: Houve associação da exposição ao particulado fino e número de internações por doenças respiratórias de meninas, sugerindo a necessidade de estratificação por sexos em estudos posteriores.

Fuzzy logic and hospital admission due to respiratory diseases using estimated values by mathematical model / Lógica fuzzy e internações por doenças respiratórias usando dados estimados por modelo matemático

Abstract Hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases generate financial costs for the Health System in addition to social costs. Objective of this study was to develop and validate a fuzzy linguistic model for prediction of hospitalization due to respiratory diseases. We constructed a fuzzy model for prediction of hospitalizations due to pneumonia, bronchitis, bronchiolitis and asthma second exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in residents of Volta Redonda, RJ, in 2012. The model contains two inputs, PM2.5 and temperature, with three membership functions for each input, and an output with three membership functions for admissions, which were obtained from DATASUS. There were 752 hospitalizations in the period, the average concentration of PM2.5 was 17.1 µg/m3 (SD = 4.4). The model showed a good accuracy with PM2.5, the result was between 90% and 76.5% for lags 1, 2 and 3, a sensitivity of up to 95%. This study provides support for creating executable software with a low investment, along with the use of a portable instrument could allow number of hospital admission due to respiratory diseases and provide support to local health managers. Furthermore, the fuzzy model is very simple and involves low computational costs, an implementation making possible.

Resumo Internações por doenças respiratórias geram custos financeiros para o Sistema de Saúde além de custos sociais. O objetivo deste estudo foi elaborar e validar um modelo linguístico "fuzzy" para previsão do número de internações por doenças respiratórias. Foi construído um modelo "fuzzy" para predição de internações por pneumonias, bronquite, bronquiolite e asma segundo exposição ao material particulado fino (PM2,5) em residentes de Volta Redonda, RJ, em 2012. O modelo contém duas entradas PM2,5 e temperatura, com três funções de pertinência para cada entrada, e uma saída com três funções de pertinência para internações, que foram obtidas do DATASUS. Foram 752 internações no período, a concentração média do PM2,5 foi 17,1 µg/m3 (dp = 4,4). O modelo mostrou uma boa acurácia com PM2,5, o resultado foi entre 90% e 76,5% para os lags 1, 2 e 3, com sensibilidade de até 95%. Este estudo fornece subsídios para a criação de programa executável, que não exige um grande investimento, juntamente com o uso de um instrumento portátil pode permitir uma estimativa do número de internações e prestar apoio aos gestores municipais de saúde. Além disso, o modelo "fuzzy" é muito simples e implica em baixas despesas computacionais, tornando possível uma implementação.

Fine particulate matter and ischemic heart diseases inrelation to sex. An ecological time series study

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Exposure to some air pollutants is associated with cardiovascular diseases. The objective of this study was to quantify the effect of exposure to fine particulate matter in hospitalizations due to ischemic heart disease and the costs to the healthcare system. DESIGN AND SETTING: Time-series ecological study conducted in Taubaté, Brazil. METHODS: Data on hospitalizations due to ischemic heart diseases (ICD I-20 to I-24) in the municipality of Taubaté (SP), Brazil, among adults of both sexes aged 40 years and over, from August 2011 to July 2012, were obtained from DATASUS. Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations were estimated from a mathematical model. Poisson regression was used in statistical analyses to estimate the relative risks of exposure to PM2.5 for both sexes and after stratification according to sex. The excess of hospitalizations and consequent excess expenditure for the healthcare system were calculated. RESULTS: There were 1040 admissions, among which 382 had ischemic heart diseases (257 males). Themean PM2.5 concentration was 13.2 µg/m3 (SD = 5.6). Significant effects from exposure were noted 4and 5 days after exposure (lag 4 and lag 5) for both sexes and for male sex; for female sex, the effect was 2 days after exposure (lag 2). There were 59 excess hospitalizations for an increase in PM2.5 concentration of 5 µg/m3 and excess expenditure of US$ 150,000 for the National Health System. CONCLUSIONS: An excess of hospital admissions due to ischemic heart disease, with excess expenditure, was identified consequent to PM2.5 exposure.

Spatial approach of leprosy in the State of São Paulo, 2009-2012

Abstract: Background: Leprosy is a chronic, infectious disease that affects the skin and the peripheral nervous system and can lead to permanent disability and/or deformity. Objectives: To identify the distribution and to quantify the spatial dependence of the detection rates of new cases of Hansen's disease in the State of São Paulo, correlating with socioeconomic variables. Methods: Ecological and exploratory study with data on the detection rates of new cases of Hansen's disease among residents of São Paulo State municipalities between 2009-2012. The average rate per 10,0000 inhabitants was estimated. Information on the proportion of the population with low-income and the values of the Gini index were obtained. Thematic maps were constructed with the average rates and with those obtained by the Bayesian estimator; Moran and Kernel maps were also constructed. Spatial analysis by TerraView program. An alpha of 5% was adopted. Results: In total, 7163 new cases of Hansen's disease were recorded throughout the state. The average rate per 10,000 inhabitants, was 0.71 (SD = 1.06), ranging from zero to 12.87, with higher rates in the west of the State, in the metropolitan area of the capital and the Paraiba Valley. Municipalities with high priority for intervention were located in the west and northwest of the State. There was no correlation between rates with Gini index and low income. Study limitations: Possible inconsistency of Hansen's disease notification database regarding information quantity, quality and processing. Conclusions: This study identified the distribution and quantified the spatial dependence of the detection rates of new cases of Hansen's disease in the State of São Paulo, corroborating previous studies and serving as a subsidy to health managers.

Exposure to NO2 and children hospitalization due to respiratory diseases in Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil / Exposição ao NO2 e internações por doenças respiratórias em crianças em Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brasil

Abstract The effects of exposure to air pollutants on human health are mainly reflected in respiratory diseases in children and elderly ones. An ecological time series study was carried out in Ribeirão Preto/SP data to examine the role of exposure to air pollutants and hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases in children under 10 years old. The study period was between January, 2011 and December, 2013. Particulate Matter (PM10), Nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and ozone (O3), temperature and air relative humidity, were analyzed to estimate the association with hospital admissions using a generalized linear model of Poisson's regression with lags of zero up to seven days after exposure to pollutants, adjusted by the day of the week, seasonality and effective temperature. The significance level adopted was p < 0.05. NO2, when analyzed in single pollutant model shown to be significant at lag 2 and 3 and when analyzed in the multi-pollutant model it shown to be significant at lags 2 up to 5, and lag 7 with relative risk between 1.05 and 1.09 per 10 μg/m3 increase in NO2 concentration, with an excess of 150 hospital admission and substantial increase in costs to Public Health System. The data enable the local health managers can take action to minimize these effects.

Resumo Os efeitos da exposição aos poluentes do ar sobre a saúde humana são principalmente refletidos nas doenças respiratórias, em crianças e idosos. Este estudo, do tipo ecológico de séries temporais, foi realizado em Ribeirão Preto/SP para examinar o papel da exposição a poluentes do ar e internações hospitalares por doenças respiratórias em crianças de até 10 anos de idade. O período de estudo foi entre 01.01.2011 e 31.12.2013. Material partículado (PM10), dióxido de nitrogênio (NO2) e ozônio (O3), temperatura e umidade relativa do ar foram analisadas para estimar a associação com internações hospitalares usando um modelo linear generalizado da regressão de Poisson com defasagens de zero até sete dias após a exposição, ajustado pelo dia da semana, sazonalidade e temperatura efetiva. Foi adotado alfa = 0,05. NO2 quando analisado no modelo unipoluente mostrou significância nos lags 2 e 3 e quando avaliado no modelo multi-poluente foi significativo nos lags 2 até 5, e lag 7, com risco relativo entre 1,05 e 1,09 por 10 μg/m3 de aumento em sua concentração, com excesso de 150 internações e aumento substancial dos custos para o sistema de saúde pública. Os dados permitem que o gestor local de saúde possa tomar medidas para minimizar estes efeitos.

Coarse particles and hospital admissions due to respiratory diseases in children. An ecological time series study

ABSTRACT BACKGROUND: Exposure to particulate matter (PM) is associated with hospitalizations due to respiratory diseases among children. DESIGN AND SETTING: An ecological time series study was carried out to identify the role of coarse fractions of particulate matter (PM10-2.5) in hospitalizations among children up to 10 years of age, in Piracicaba (SP) in the year 2015. METHODS: A generalized additive model of Poisson regression was used to estimate the risk of hospitalization due to acute laryngitis and tracheitis, pneumonia, bronchitis, bronchiolitis and asthma. Lags of 0 to 7 days were considered, and the model was adjusted for the temperature and relative humidity of the air and controlled for short and long-term exposure. Proportional attributable ratios, population-attributable fractions and hospital costs were calculated with increasing concentrations of these pollutants. RESULTS: 638 hospitalizations were evaluated during this period, with a mean of 1.75 cases per day (standard deviation, SD = 1.86). The daily averages were 22.45 µg/m3 (SD = 13.25) for the coarse fraction (PM10-2.5) and 13.32 µg/m3 (SD = 6.38) for the fine fraction. Significant risks of PM10-2.5 exposure were only observed at lag 0, with relative risk (RR) = 1.012, and at lag 6, with RR = 1.011. An increase of 5 µg/m3 in the coarse fraction concentration implied an increase in the relative risk of hospitalizations of up to 4.8%, with an excess of 72 hospitalizations and excess expenditure of US$ 17,000 per year. CONCLUSIONS: This study showed the impact of coarse-fraction exposure on hospital admissions among children due to respiratory diseases.

Modelos computacionais fuzzy para avaliar efeitos da poluição do ar em crianças / Fuzzy computational models to evaluate the effects of air pollution on children

RESUMO Objetivo: Construir um modelo computacional fuzzy para estimar o número de internações de crianças até 10 anos por doenças respiratórias, com base nos dados de poluentes e fatores climáticos da cidade de São José do Rio Preto, Brasil. Métodos: Foi construído modelo computacional utilizando a lógica fuzzy. O modelo tem 4 entradas, cada uma com 2 funções de pertinência gerando 16 regras, e a saída com 5 funções de pertinência, baseado no método de Mamdani, para estimar a associação entre os poluentes e o número de internações. Os dados de internações, de 2011-2013, foram obtidos no Departamento de Informática do Sistema de Saúde (DATASUS) e os poluentes material particulado (PM10) e dióxido de nitrogênio (NO2), a velocidade do vento e a temperatura foram obtidos pela Companhia Ambiental do Estado de São Paulo (Cetesb). Resultados: Foram internadas 1.161 crianças no período analisado, e a média dos poluentes foi 36 e 51 µg/m3 - PM10 e NO2, respectivamente. Os melhores valores da correlação de Pearson (0,34) e da acurácia avaliada pela curva Receiver Operating Characteristic - ROC (NO2 - 96,7% e PM10 - 90,4%) foram para internações no mesmo dia da exposição. Conclusões: O modelo mostrou-se eficaz na predição do número de internações de crianças, podendo ser utilizado como ferramenta na gestão hospitalar da região estudada.

ABSTRACT Objective: To build a fuzzy computational model to estimate the number of hospitalizations of children aged up to 10 years due to respiratory conditions based on pollutants and climatic factors in the city of São José do Rio Preto, Brazil. Methods: A computational model was constructed using the fuzzy logic. The model has 4 inputs, each with 2 membership functions generating 16 rules, and the output with 5 pertinence functions, based on the Mamdani's method, to estimate the association between the pollutants and the number of hospitalizations. Data from hospitalizations, from 2011-2013, were obtained in DATASUS - and the pollutants Particulate Matter (PM10) and Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2), wind speed and temperature were obtained by the Environmental Company of São Paulo State (Cetesb). Results: A total of 1,161 children were hospitalized in the period and the mean of pollutants was 36 and 51 µg/m3 - PM10 and NO2, respectively. The best values of the Pearson correlation (0.34) and accuracy measured by the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve (NO2 - 96.7% and PM10 - 90.4%) were for hospitalizations on the same day of exposure. Conclusions: The model was effective in predicting the number of hospitalizations of children and could be used as a tool in the hospital management of the studied region.

Accidents involving motorcycles and potential years of life lost. An ecological and exploratory study

ABSTRACT CONTEXT AND OBJECTIVE: Traffic accidents have gained prominence as one of the modern epidemics that plague the world. The objective of this study was to identify the spatial distribution of potential years of life lost (PYLL) due to accidents involving motorcycles in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. DESIGN AND SETTING: Ecological and exploratory study conducted in São Paulo. METHODS: Data on deaths among individuals aged 20-39 years due to motorcycle accidents (V20-V29 in the International Classification of Diseases, 10th revision) in the state of São Paulo in the years 2007-2011 were obtained from DATASUS. These data were stratified into a database for the 63 microregions of this state, according to where the motorcyclist lived. PYLL rates per 100,000 inhabitants were calculated. Spatial autocorrelations were estimated using the Global Moran index (IM). Thematic, Moran and Kernel maps were constructed using PYLL rates for the age groups of 20-29 and 30-39 years. The Terraview 4.2.2 software was used for the analysis. RESULTS: The PYLL rates were 486.9 for the ages of 20-29 years and 199.5 for 30-39 years. Seventeen microregions with high PYLL rates for the age group of 20-29 years were identified. There was higher density of these rates on the Kernel map of the southeastern region (covering the metropolitan region of São Paulo). There were no spatial autocorrelations between rates. CONCLUSIONS: The data presented in this study identified microregions with high accident rates involving motorcycles and microregions that deserve special attention from regional managers and traffic experts.

Efeitos da exposição a poluentes do ar na saúde das crianças de Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brasil / Efectos de la exposición a contaminantes del aire en la salud de los niños de Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brasil / Effects of exposure to air pollutants on children's health in Cuiabá, Mato Grosso State, Brazil

Exposição a poluentes do ar, que costumam ser quantificados por agências ambientais que não estão presentes em todos os estados, pode estar associada a internações por doenças respiratórias de crianças. Foi desenvolvido um estudo ecológico de séries temporais com dados referentes às internações por algumas doenças respiratórias de crianças menores de dez anos de idade, em 2012, na cidade de Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brasil. Os níveis médios de material particulado fino (PM2,5) foram estimados por modelo matemático, os dados de temperatura mínima e umidade relativa do ar foram obtidos do Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia, e número de focos de queimadas do Sistema de Informações Ambientais. A abordagem estatística utilizou o modelo aditivo generalizado da regressão de Poisson com defasagens de 0 a 7 dias. Foram estimados os custos financeiros e aumentos do número de internações decorrentes de elevações de PM2,5. Foram 565 internações (média de 1,54/dia; DP = 1,52) e concentração de PM2,5 de 15,7µg/m3 (DP = 3,2). Foram encontradas associações entre exposição e internações no segundo semestre, nos lags 2 e 3, e quando analisado o ano todo, no lag 2. Uma elevação de 5µg/m3 do PM2,5 implicou o aumento de 89 internações e custos acima dos R$ 95 mil para o Sistema Único de Saúde. Dados estimados por modelo matemático podem ser utilizados em locais onde não há monitoramento de poluentes.

La exposición a contaminantes del aire, que suelen ser cuantificados por agencias ambientales que no están presentes en todos los estados, puede estar asociada a internamientos por enfermedades respiratorias de niños. Se desarrolló un estudio ecológico de series temporales con datos referentes a los internamientos por algunas enfermedades respiratorias de niños menores de 10 años de edad, en 2012, en la ciudad de Cuiabá, Mato Grosso, Brasil. Los niveles medios de material particulado fino (PM2,5) se estimaron mediante un modelo matemático, los datos de temperatura mínima y humedad relativa del aire se obtuvieron del Instituto Nacional de Meteorología, y el número de focos de incendios del Sistema de Información Ambiental. El enfoque estadístico usó el modelo aditivo generalizado de la regresión de Poisson con desfases de 0 a 7 días. Se estimaron los costes financieros y aumentos del número de internamientos derivados de elevaciones de PM2,5. Fueron 565 internamientos (media de 1,54/día; DE = 1,52) y concentración de PM2,5 de 15,7µg/m3 (DE = 3,2). Se encontraron asociaciones entre exposición e internamientos en el segundo semestre, en los lags 2 y 3, y cuando se analizó todo el año, en el lag 2. Una elevación de 5µg/m3 del PM2,5 implicó el aumento de 89 internamientos y costes por encima de los BRL 95 mil para el Sistema Único de Salud. Los datos estimados por el modelo matemático pueden ser utilizados en lugares, donde no existe un monitoreo de contaminantes.

Exposure to air pollutants, usually measured by environmental agencies that are not present in all states, may be associated with respiratory admissions in children. An ecological time series study was conducted with data on hospitalizations due to selected respiratory diseases in children under 10 years of age in 2012 in the city of Cuiabá, Mato Grosso State, Brazil. Mean levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) were estimated with a mathematical model, data on low temperatures and relative humidity were obtained from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology, and the numbers of brush burnings were obtained from the Environmental Information System. The statistical approach used the Poisson regression generalized additive model with lags of 0 to 7 days. The financial costs and increases in hospitalizations due to increments in PM2.5 were estimated. There were 565 hospitalizations (mean 1.54 admissions/day; SD = 1.52), and mean PM2.5 concentration was 15.7µg/m3 (SD = 3.2). Associations were observed between exposure and hospitalizations in the second semester at lags 2 and 3, and at lag 2 when the entire year was analyzed. An increment of 5µg/m3 in PM2.5 was associated with an increase of 89 hospitalizations and costs exceeding BRL 95,000 (≈ USD 38,000) for the Brazilian Unified National Health System. Data estimated by mathematical models can be used in locations where pollutants are not monitored.

Spatial distribution for diarrhea hospitalization in São Paulo State / Distribuição espacial das internações por diarreia no Estado de São Paulo

Abstract Objectives: to identify spatial pattern on hospitalization rates of children with diarrhea in the counties in São Paulo State. Methods: ecological and exploratory study on hospitalized data of children with diarrhea under the age of four in 2008 and 2012, the IDH mothers with low schooling level and children living with a low income less than half minimum wage were obtained from Datasus and inserted into digital map of the counties in São Paulo State. Moran's global index (I) and Pearson's coefficients correlation and thematic maps of hospitalization rates of 1,000 children, Moran maps and kernel map were calculated. Results: there were 34, 802 hospital admissions, with an average rate of 4.7 hospitalizations / 1,000 children (SD=7.2). Hospitalization rates were correlated only with schooling (r= 0.09, p<0.05). Moran's index for hospitalization rate was I=0.31(p<0.01). The thematic map of the hospital admission rates showed a cluster of counties in the west of the State; the kernel map showed a higher density of hospitalization in this region and the Moran map identified 57 counties which deserve attention. Conclusions: the results provide subsidies for the counties and regional managers to implement measurements aiming to reduce these rates.

Resumo Objetivos: identificar padrão espacial para taxas de internação por diarreia em crianças nos municípios do estado de São Paulo. Métodos: estudo ecológico e exploratório, com dados de internação por diarréia em crianças com até quatro anos de idade, de 2008 e 2012, IDH, proporções de mães com baixa escolaridade, e crianças que vivem em famílias com renda menor que meio salário mínimo obtidos do Datasus e inseridos em malha digital dos municípios de São Paulo. Foram calculados índices de Moran global (I) e coeficientes de correlação de Pearson e construídos mapas temáticos das taxas de internação por 1000 crianças, mapas de Moran e mapa de kernel. Resultados: houve 34802 internações, média no período de 4,7 internações/1000 crianças (dp = 7,2). As taxas de internação estiveram correlacionadas com a escolaridade (r=0,09; p<0,05). O índice de Moran para a taxa de internação foi I = 0,31 (p<0,01). O mapa temático das taxas de internação mostrou aglomerado de municípios no oeste do estado; o mapa de kernel mostra uma maior densidade de internação nesta região e o mapa de Moran identificou 57 municípios que merecem atenção. Conclusões: os resultados fornecem subsídios para os gestores municipais e regionais na implantação de medidas visando a redução dessas taxas.

Fuzzy model to estimate the number of hospitalizations for asthma and pneumonia under the effects of air pollution / Modelo fuzzy para estimar o número de internações por asma e pneumonia sob os efeitos da poluição do ar

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE Predict the number of hospitalizations for asthma and pneumonia associated with exposure to air pollutants in the city of São José dos Campos, São Paulo State. METHODS This is a computational model using fuzzy logic based on Mamdani’s inference method. For the fuzzification of the input variables of particulate matter, ozone, sulfur dioxide and apparent temperature, we considered two relevancy functions for each variable with the linguistic approach: good and bad. For the output variable number of hospitalizations for asthma and pneumonia, we considered five relevancy functions: very low, low, medium, high and very high. DATASUS was our source for the number of hospitalizations in the year 2007 and the result provided by the model was correlated with the actual data of hospitalization with lag from zero to two days. The accuracy of the model was estimated by the ROC curve for each pollutant and in those lags. RESULTS In the year of 2007, 1,710 hospitalizations by pneumonia and asthma were recorded in São José dos Campos, State of São Paulo, with a daily average of 4.9 hospitalizations (SD = 2.9). The model output data showed positive and significant correlation (r = 0.38) with the actual data; the accuracies evaluated for the model were higher for sulfur dioxide in lag 0 and 2 and for particulate matter in lag 1. CONCLUSIONS Fuzzy modeling proved accurate for the pollutant exposure effects and hospitalization for pneumonia and asthma approach.

RESUMO OBJETIVO Prever o número de internações por asma e pneumonia associadas à exposição a poluentes do ar no município em São José dos Campos, estado de São Paulo. MÉTODOS Trata-se de um modelo computacional que utiliza a lógica fuzzy baseado na técnica de inferência de Mamdani. Para a fuzzificação das variáveis de entrada material particulado, ozônio, dióxido de enxofre e temperatura aparente foram consideradas duas funções de pertinência para cada variável com abordagem linguísticas: bom e ruim. Para a variável de saída número internações por asma e pneumonia, foram consideradas cinco funções de pertinências: muito baixo, baixo, médio, alto e muito alto. O número de internações no ano de 2007 foi obtido do Datasus e o resultado fornecido pelo modelo foi correlacionado com os dados reais de internação com defasagem (lag) de zero a dois dias. A acurácia do modelo foi estimada pela curva ROC para cada poluente e nestas defasagens. RESULTADOS No ano de 2007 foram registradas 1.710 internações por pneumonia e asma em São José dos Campos, SP, com média diária de 4,9 internações (dp = 2,9). Os dados de saída do modelo mostraram correlação positiva e significativa (r = 0,38) com os dados reais; as acurácias avaliadas para o modelo foram maiores para o dióxido de enxofre nos lag 0 e 2 e para o material particulado no lag 1. CONCLUSÕES Modelagem fuzzy se mostrou acurada para a abordagem de efeitos da exposição aos poluentes e internação por pneumonia e asma.

Spatial Approach of Perinatal Mortality in São Paulo State, 2003-2012 / Análise espacial da mortalidade perinatal no estado de São Paulo, de 2003 a 2012

Abstract Objectives To identifying spatial patterns in the distribution of perinatal mortality in the state of São Paulo from 2003 to 2012. Methods An ecological and exploratory study with data on perinatal mortality rates of every thousand live births, which were registered on the digital database containing 645 municipalities in the state of São Paulo within the periods of 2003 to 2007 and 2008 to 2012. The spatial analysis provided Moran’s index (MI) and thematic maps of rates, and the Moran maps of both periods were drawn. The average rates were compared by Student’s t test. The TerraView 4.2.2 software (INPE, S. José dos Campos, Brazil) was also used. Results There were 49,485 perinatal deaths during the first period, at a rate of 17.90 deaths/1,000 live births (standard deviation [SD] = 7.0; MI = 0.14; p = 0.01), and 44,582 perinatal deaths during the second period, at a rate of 16.40 deaths/1,000 live births (SD = 11.14; MI = 0.04; p = 0.03). These rates are statistically different (p < 0.01). There was a decrease in these rates in 413 municipalities when comparing the two periods. The Moran map has identified 35 municipalities that require special attention, which are located in the Eastern, Southwestern, Western and Northwestern regions of São Paulo state. Conclusion The study provides municipal managers with subsidies so they can minimize these rates by implementing public policies and taking better care of pregnant women and newborns.

Resumo Objetivo Identificar padrões espaciais na distribuição de mortalidade perinatal no Estado de São Paulo no período de 2003 a 2012. Métodos Estudo ecológico e exploratório, com dados sobre as taxas de mortalidade perinatal por mil nascidos vivos e inseridos em malha digital dos 645 municípios do estado de São Paulo entre 2003 e 2007 e 2008 e 2012. A análise espacial forneceu o índice de Moran (IM), e foram construídos mapas temáticos das taxas e o mapa de Moran de ambos os períodos. As taxas médias foram comparadas utilizando o teste t de Student. Utilizou-se o programa Terra View 4.2.2. Resultados Foram 49.485 óbitos perinatais no primeiro período, taxa de 17,90 óbitos/1.000 nascidos vivos (desvio-padrão [DP] = 7,0; IM = 0,14; p = 0,01), e 44.582 óbitos perinatais no segundo período, taxa de 16,40 óbitos/1.000 nascidos vivos (DP = 11,14; IM = 0,04; p = 0,03). Estas taxas são diferentes (p < 0,01). Houve diminuição destas taxas em 413 municípios quando comparados os dois períodos. O mapa de Moran identificou 35 municípios localizados nas regiões Leste, Sudoeste, Oeste e Noroeste, que merecem uma atenção especial. Conclusão O estudo fornece subsídios para que os gestores municipais possam minimizar estas taxas, implantando políticas públicas e melhor atendimento às gestantes e recém-nascidos.

Effects of Air Pollutant Exposure on Acute Myocardial Infarction, According to Gender / Efeitos da Exposição a Poluentes do Ar no Infarto Agudo do Miocárdio, Segundo Gêneros

Abstract Background: There is evidence of the effects of air pollution on hospital admissions due to cardiovascular diseases, including myocardial infarction. Objective: To estimate the association between exposure to air pollutants and hospital admissions due to myocardial infarction according to gender, between January 1st 2012 and December 31st 2013, in São Jose dos Campos-SP. Methods: An ecological time series study was carried out with daily data of admissions due to AMI, pollutants CO, O3, PM10, SO2, and NO2, according to gender. We used the Poisson regression generalized linear model to estimate the relative risks of hospital admissions with lags of 0-5 days, adjusted for temperature, humidity, seasonality and days of the week. Results: There were 1837 admissions for ischemic heart diseases, with 636 women and 1201 men. For females, the risks were significant for CO in lag 0 (RR = 1,09), lag1 (RR = 1,08) and lag 5 (RR = 1,10) and SO2 in lag 0 (RR = 1,10) and 3 (RR = 1,09). For men there was significance of the CO in, lag 3 and lag 5 (RR = 1,05). There was significance, regardless of gender, for CO at lag 1 (RR = 1,05) and lag 5 (RR = 1,07) and lag 0 for SO2 (RR = 1,06). Conclusion: The data presented show the important role of CO and SO2 in the genesis of myocardial infarction admissions, and responses to pollutant exposure are different if analyzed by gender and together - hence the importance of a stratified analyses.

Resumo Fundamento: Existem evidências sobre os efeitos da poluição do ar nas internações por doenças cardiovasculares, entre elas o infarto do miocárdio. Objetivo: Estimar a associação entre exposição a poluentes do ar e internações por infarto segundo gêneros, entre 01 de Janeiro de 2012 e 31 de Dezembro de 2013, em São José dos Campos - SP. Métodos: Estudo ecológico de série temporal com dados diários de internações por IAM dos poluentes CO, O3, PM10, SO2, NO2, segundo gêneros. Utilizou-se modelo linear generalizado da Regressão de Poisson para estimar os riscos relativos para internações com defasagens de 0 a 5 dias, ajustados por temperatura, umidade, sazonalidade e dias da semana. Resultados: Foram 1837 internações por doenças isquêmicas do coração, sendo 636 mulheres e 1201 homens. Para o gênero feminino, os riscos foram significativos para o CO nos lag 0 (RR = 1,09), lag1 (RR = 1,08) e lag 5 (RR = 1,10) e para o SO2 no lag 0 (RR = 1,10) e 3 (RR = 1,09). Para o gênero masculino houve significância para o CO no lag 3 e lag 5 (RR = 1,05). Sem distinção de gênero houve significância para o CO no lag 1 (RR = 1,05) e lag 5 (RR = 1,07) e no lag 0 para o SO2 (RR = 1,06). Conclusão: Os dados apresentados mostram o importante papel do CO e do SO2 na gênese das internações por infarto e que as respostas à exposição aos poluentes são diferentes se analisadas por sexo e em conjunto, daí a importância de se estratificarem as análises.