Formulation and analysis of comprehensive quality competency evaluation scale for medical graduates / 中华医学教育探索杂志

Objective:To meet the demand of medical system for talents, the training of medical students' competency has become a new direction of medical education. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of training quality in medical graduates through the competency scale.Methods:Taking "attitude", "skill" and "knowledge" as the evaluation dimensions, the competency development was divided into four levels of "state", "explain", "apply" and "transfer", and we proposed the competence concept of "A.S.K.-SEAT" and formulated an evaluation scale. Questionnaires and behavior event interviews (BEI) were conducted in medical graduates of Shantou University in 2018. Reliability and validity of the questionnaire were evaluated and current situation of different competency items were analyzed.Results:A total of 155 questionnaires were collected with good reliability and validity, and 15 graduates participated in BEI. A total of 21 A.S.K. competency items (including five basic competency items and two discriminating competency items) and SEAT textual descriptions were finally established.Conclusion:A.S.K.-SEAT scale can provide valid references for the competency evaluation of medical graduates.

Short-term effects of ambient air pollution and cause-specific emergency department visits in Guangzhou / 中华疾病控制杂志

Objective To understand the relationship between the concentration of air pollutants and daily emergency department visits for different diseases (circulatory system disease, digestive system disease, nervous system disease and respiratory system disease) in Guangzhou, Guangdong Province. Methods The daily average concentrations of sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxide (NO2, carbon monoxide (CO) and PM2.5 and the daily maximum 8-hour concentrations of O3, the daily average temperature, the relative humidity and cause -specific emergency department visits of the four major diseases from 2015 to 2017 were collected in Guangzhou. Semi-parametric generalized additive model was used to analyze the relationship between the concentration of pollutants and daily cause-specific emergency department visits. Results The daily average concentrations of SO2, NO2, CO, O3 and PM2.5 during the study period were 13.24 μg /m3, 45.96 μg /m3, 0.97 mg /m3, 123.77 μg /m3 and 36.22 μg /m3, respectively. For circulatory system disease，the independently significant associations of SO2 with emergency department visits in single-pollutant models (2.91%, 95% CI: 1.00%-4.85%), and multipollutant models (4.39%, 95% CI: 1.22%-7.67%) were observed. Conclusion The ambient SO2 increases the risk of emergency department visits due to circulatory diseases in Guangzhou. Comprehensive prevention and control measures should be taken to reduce the emission of SO2.

Building a Prediction System of Influenza Epidemics with LASSO Regression Model and Baidu Search Query Data / 中国卫生统计

Objective To evaluate the performance of a prediction system built with LASSO regression model and Baidu search query data.Methods Based on a strategy using a combination of Bagging and multi-measure optimization method,this study proposed an ensemble LASSO regression model which had an obviously improved performance,and applied it to predict the epidemics of influenza in China.Results The results showed that the improved model had significantly smaller prediction error rates than that of the conventional LASSO regression model for influenza cases during the study period of 2011-2015.This study designed an open source R package,SparseLearner,which was conveniently used and further developed.Conclusion The combination of Bagging and multi-measure optimization method is an efficient strategy to improve the performance of LASSO regression model.The proposed ensemble LASSO regression model in this study can be applied for the prediction of infectious diseases epidemics.

Predicating risk area of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus by using early warning model in China / 中华流行病学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To establish a risk early warning model of human infection with avian influenza A (H7N9) virus and predict the area with high risk of the outbreak of H7N9 virus infection.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>The incidence data of human infection with H7N9 virus at prefecture level in China from February 2013 to June 2014 were collected, and the geographic and meteorological data during the same period in these areas were collected too. Spatial auto regression (SAR) model and generalized additive model (GAM) were used to estimate different risk factors. Afterwards, the risk area map was created based on the predicted value of both models.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>All the human infections with H7N9 virus occurred in the predicted areas by the early warning model in February 2014. The early warning model successfully predicted the spatial moving trend of the disease, and this trend was verified by two outbreaks in northern China in April and May 2014.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The established early warning model showed accuracy and precision in short-term prediction, which might be applied in the active surveillance, early warning and prevention/control of the outbreak of human infection with H7N9 virus.</p>

A retrospective analysis on the association between seasonality of influenza A and climate factors in human from 1997 to 2008,in Hong Kong / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective To investigate the association between seasonal dynamics of influenza A and climate factors in Hong Kong.Methods Data regarding monthly report on influenza A and climate during the period of 1997-2008 were collected.Generalized additive models were established to study the effects of climate factors on the seasonality of influenza A in human while confounders controlled and nonlinear effect determined.Results Results showed that the association between climate factors and the seasonality of influenza A was complicated.The nonlinear effects of climate factors on the epidemics of influenza A were significant,using x2 test (P＜0.05).The effect of the factors including mean temperature,relative humidity,wind speed and absolute humidity on the seasonality of influenza A were similar,maximal at low scale,minimal at mid-rang scale and moderate at high one.The minamal effect intervals of the above factors were (17.95-24.10) ℃,(71.5-78.5 )％,(18.3-24.0) km/h and (4.37-4.80)mb respectively.Conclusion Data from this study suggested that the effect of climate factors on the seasonal dynamics of influenza A in human was complicated.