RESUMO
La fiebre chikungunya afecta seriamente la salud de las personas, causando dolores articulares crónicos e incluso discapacidad. Es transmitida por picadura de los mosquitos Aedes aegypti y Aedes albopictus. Se han reportado brotes en diversas partes del mundo, incluyendo Latinoamérica. Estudios de modelamiento matemático de dichos brotes han calculado valores de parámetros epidemiológicos. En base a ellos, se elaboró un modelo matemático para simular un brote epidémico de chikungunya en una población local, transmitido desde una población vecina infectada. Mediante análisis de sensibilidad e incertidumbre se obtuvo que la tasa de transmisión mosquito-humano y humano-mosquito son las variables con mayor correlación con la cantidad de infectados, la cual se pierde significativamente a partir de los 60 días del primer caso en la población vecina. Se recomienda tomar esto en cuenta al planificar medidas de control sobre dichas variables como aislamiento de infectados, repartición de mosquiteros y repelentes, fumigación, entre otras...
Chikungunya fever seriously affects peoplesÆ health and causes chronic joint pain and even disability. Chikungunya is transmitted by the bite of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. Outbreaks have been reported in throughout the world, including Latin America. Mathematical modeling studies of these outbreaks have calculated the values of various epidemiological parameters. Based on them, a mathematical model was prepared to simulate a chikungunya outbreak in a local population, which was transmitted from an neighboring infected population. A sensitivity and uncertainty analysis revealed that the mosquito-to-human and human-to-mosquito transmission rates are the variables with the highest correlation with the number infected people, which were greatest at 60 days after the first case in the neighboring population. Therefore, it is recommended to take this into consideration when planning policies to control such variables as isolation of infected people, distribution of mosquito netting and repellents, fumigation, among others...