Predictive value of mNUTRIC score for chronic critical illness in elderly patients with sepsis / 中华急诊医学杂志

Objective:To explore the predictive value of the modified NUTrition risk in the critically ill (mNUTRIC) score for chronic critical illness (CCI) in elderly sepsis patients.Methods:A prospective observational study was conducted. Elderly sepsis patients admitted to Medical Intensive Care Unit (MICU) of General Hospital of Southern Theatre Command for more than 24 h from August 2019 to January 2021 were enrolled. Age, sex, acute physiology and chronic health evaluation Ⅱ (APACHE Ⅱ) score, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, acute gastrointestinal injury (AGI) score, clinical frailty score and mNUTRIC score at admission, length of ICU stay, usage of mechanical ventilation and renal replacement therapy were recorded. According to the occurrence of CCI, patients were divided into the CCI group and rapid recovery (RAP) group, and the differences between the two groups were compared. The risk factor of CCI after sepsis in elderly patients were analyzed by log-binomial regression analysis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed for mNUTRIC score. Differences were considered significant at P<0.05. Results:Of the enrolled 91 sepsis patients, 14 (15%) patients died within the first week, 37 (41%) exhibited RAP and 40 (44%) developed CCI. The CCI patients were significantly older and presented a higher APACHE Ⅱ score, CFS score, mNUTRIC score, and usage of mechanical ventilation and renal replacement therapy compared with the RAP patients ( P<0.05). Multivariate regression analysis revealed that mNUTRIC score was an independent risk factor for the development of CCI in elderly sepsis patients, prevalence ratio was 1.503 (95% CI: 1.007-2.244). The area under the curve (AUC) of mNUTRIC score was 0.706 (95% CI: 0.592-0.805). Conclusions:The mNUTRIC score at the time of admission in the intensive care unit can be used to predict CCI after sepsis in elderly sepsis patients.

A 180-day mortality predictive score based on frailty syndrome in elderly patients with sepsis: a Logistic regression analysis model / 中华危重病急救医学

Objective:To establish a 180-day mortality predictive score based on frailty syndrome in elderly sepsis patients [elderly sepsis score (ESS)].Methods:A prospective study for sepsis patients aged 60 years and above who were admitted to a medical intensive care unit of the General Hospital of Southern Theatre Command from January 1st, 2018 to December 31st, 2018 was conducted. Univariate analysis was performed on 19 independent variables including gender, age, body mass index (BMI), tumor, charlson comorbidity index (CCI), activity of daily living (ADL), instrumental activity of daily living (IADL), mini-mental state examination (MMSE), geriatric depression scale (GDS), clinical frail scale (CFS), sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA), Glasgow coma scale (GCS), acute physiology and chronic health evaluation (APACHEⅡ, APACHEⅣ), modified NUTRIC score (MNS), multiple drug resistance (MDR), mechanical ventilation (MV), continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) and palliative care. Continuous independent variables were converted into classified variables. Multivariate binary regression analysis of risk factors was conducted to screen independent risk factors which affecting 180-day mortality in elderly sepsis patients. Then a 180-day mortality predictive score was established, and the discrimination of the mortality of patients using CFS, SOFA, GCS, APACHEⅡ, APACHEⅣ, MNS scores were compared.Results:A total of 257 patients were enrolled, with a 180-day mortality of 60.7%. Univariate analysis showed that age, tumor, CCI, ADL, IADL, MMSE, CFS, SOFA, GCS, APACHEⅡ, APACHEⅣ, MNS, MDR, MV, CRRT, palliative care were risk factors of 180-day mortality in elderly sepsis patients [age: odds ratio ( OR) = 1.027, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) was 1.005-1.050, P = 0.018; tumor: OR =2.001, 95% CI was 1.022-3.920, P = 0.043; CCI: OR = 1.193, 95% CI was 1.064-1.339, P = 0.003; ADL: OR = 0.851, 95% CI was 0.772-0.940, P = 0.001; IADL: OR = 0.894, 95% CI was 0.826-0.967, P = 0.005; MMSE: OR = 0.962, 95% CI was 0.937-0.988, P = 0.004; CFS: OR = 1.303, 95% CI was 1.089-1.558, P = 0.004; SOFA: OR = 1.112, 95% CI was 1.038-1.191, P = 0.003; GCS: OR = 0.918, 95% CI was 0.863-0.977, P = 0.007; APACHEⅡ: OR = 1.098, 95% CI was 1.053-1.145, P < 0.001; APACHEⅣ: OR = 1.032, 95% CI was 1.020-1.044, P < 0.001; MNS: OR = 1.315, 95% CI was 1.159-1.493, P < 0.001; MDR: OR = 2.029, 95% CI was 1.197-3.437, P = 0.009; MV: OR = 6.408, 95% CI was 3.480-11.798, P < 0.001, CRRT: OR = 2.744, 95% CI was 1.529-4.923, P = 0.001, palliative care: OR = 5.760, 95% CI was 2.177-15.245, P < 0.001]. By binary regression analysis, CFS stratification ( OR = 1.934, 95% CI was 1.267-2.953, P = 0.002), MV ( OR = 4.531, 95% CI was 2.376-8.644, P < 0.001), CRRT ( OR = 2.471, 95% CI was 1.285-4.752, P = 0.007), palliative care ( OR = 6.169, 95% CI was 2.173-17.515, P = 0.001) were independent risk factors of 180-day mortality in elderly patients with sepsis. The model of "ESS = 0.660×CFS stratification+1.511×MV+0.905×CRRT+1.820×palliative care" was established. Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve) analysis showed that the area under the ROC curve (AUC) for predicting 180-day mortality by ESS was 0.785 (95% CI was 0.730-0.834, P < 0.001). When the best cut-off value was 2.2 points, its sensitivity was 78.9%, specificity was 70.3%, the positive predictive value was 80.4%, and the negative predictive value was 68.3%. Simplified ESS was defined as "0.5×CFS stratification+1.5×MV+1×CRRT+2×palliative care". ROC curve analysis showed that AUC for predicting 180-day mortality by simplified ESS was 0.784 (95% CI was 0.729-0.833, P < 0.001). When the best cut-off value was 2.0 points, sensitivity was 76.9%, specificity was 70.3%, the positive predictive value was 80.0%, and the negative predictive value was 66.4%. Compared with CFS, SOFA, GCS, APACHEⅡ, APACHEⅣ and MNS, ESS had a significant difference in discriminating 180-day mortality in elderly patients with sepsis (AUC was 0.785 vs. 0.607, 0.607, 0.600, 0.664, 0.702, 0.657, 95% CI: 0.730-0.734 vs. 0.537-0.678, 0.537-0.677, 0.529-0.671, 0.598-0.730, 0.638-0.766, 0.590-0.725, all P < 0.05). Conclusions:CFS, MV, CRRT, and palliative care are independent risk factors of 180-day mortality in elderly patients with sepsis. We established ESS based on these risk factors. The ESS model has good discrimination and can be used as a reference and assessment tool for prediction and treatment guidance in elderly patients with sepsis.

Hemodynamics of elderly patients with septic shock monitored by pulse indicator continuous cardiac output / 中华老年医学杂志

Objective To investigate the changes of cardiovascular hemodynamics in elderly patients with septic shock using pulse indicator continuous cardiac output (PiCCO).Methods Fifty elderly patients with septic shock at the General Hospital of Guangzhou Military Command were enrolled from January 2015 to December 2015.We collected clinical data,including gender,age,acute physiological and chronic health evaluation (APACHE Ⅱ) score,sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score,and the PiCCO parameters,such as cardiac index (CI),stroke volume index (SVI),systemic vascular resistance index (SVRI),cardiac function index (CFI),global ejection fraction (GEF),extravascular lung water volume index (EVLWI),etc.All clinical data were retrospectively analyzed.Results Compared with medical reference ranges,the majority of elderly patients with septic shock had low levels of CI (n=35),SVI (n=41),CFI (n =39) and GEF (n=46) and high levels of EVLWI (n =34).More patients over 75 years than those under 75 years showed lower CI (n=33,or 80.5％ vs.n =2,or 22.2％,x2 =13.511,P=0.001),lower CFI (n=35,or 85.4％ vs.n=4,or 44.4％,x-=7.236,P =0.027),and higher SVRI (n =24,or 58.5％ vs.n =0 or 0.0％,x2 =10.392,P=0.006).CI and CFI levels were negatively correlated with patient age (r=-0.460,P=0.001;r=-0.384,P=0.006).Diabetics showed lower CFI [(2.70±0.67)L/min vs.(3.64± 1.54)L/min,t =2.189,P =0.033],while patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease demonstrated a higher level of EVLWI[(13.83±7.60)l/min vs.(9.61±4.24)L/min,t =-2.062,P=0.045].On the third day,patients with high levels of PVPI showed an increased rate of mortality (80.0 ％,or 4 out of 5 cases to 28.9o,or 13 out of 45 cases,x2 =5.239,P=0.022),while the level of EVLWI of non-survivors was significantly higher than that of survivors on day 28[(11.10±5.57)ml/kg vs.(8.53±2.85)ml/kg,t=-2.150,P=0.037].Conclusions Elderly patients with septic shock have worse heart function,more lung water,and therefore lower volume tolerance than younger patients.The heart function of elderly patients deteriorates with age.PiCCO can provide real-time hemodynamic data and may be a prognostic index for elderly patients with septic shock.