Application of ARIMA model in predicting the incidence of tuberculosis in China from 2018 to 2019 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective@#Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was used to predict the incidence of tuberculosis in China from 2018 to 2019, providing references for the prevention and control of pulmonary tuberculosis.@*Methods@#The monthly incidence data of tuberculosis in China were collected from January 2005 to December 2017. R 3.4.4 software was used to establish the ARIMA model, based on the monthly incidence data of tuberculosis from January 2005 to June 2017. Both predicted and actual data from July to December 2017 were compared to verify the effectiveness of this model, and the number of tuberculosis cases in 2018-2019 also predicted.@*Results@#From 2005 to 2017, a total of 13 022 675 cases of tuberculosis were reported, the number of pulmonary tuberculosis patients in 2017 was 33.68% lower than that in 2005, and the seasonal character was obvious, with the incidence in winter and spring was higher than that in other seasons. According to the incidence data from 2005 to 2017, we established the model of ARIMA (0,1,2)(0,1,0)12. The relative error between the predicted and actual values of July to December 2017 fitted by the model ranged from 1.67% to 6.80%, and the predicted number of patients in 2018 and 2019 were 789 509 and 760 165 respectively.@*Conclusion@#The ARIMA (0, 1, 2)(0, 1, 0)12 model well predicted the incidence of tuberculosis, thus can be used for short-term prediction and dynamic analysis of tuberculosis in China, with good application value.

Involvement of Hfq in stress response and transcriptional regulation of virulence genes and stress-responsive genes in Vibrio cholera / 中华微生物学和免疫学杂志

Objective To characterize Hfq-dependent phenotypes in stress response and to dissect Hfq-dependent transcription of virulence genes and stress-responsive genes in Vibrio cholera.Methods The hfq null mutant strain (△hfq) and the complemented mutant strain (△hfq/pUC18-hfq) were constructed from the wild-type Vibrio cholera.Comparisons on the motility,biofilm formation,growth under various oxygen-supplying conditions,outer membrane resistance,and sensitivity to oxidative stress were analyzed between the wild type strain and the mutant strains.Reverse-transcript fluorescence quantitative PCR (RT-qPCR) was used to determine the transcriptional levels of target genes in the above mentioned strains.Results △hfq and △hfq/pUC18-hfq strains were successfully constructed.The motility,outer membrane resistance and sensitivity to oxidative stress were reduced,but biofilm formation was enhanced in the hfq null mutant strain.RT-qPCR testified that Hfq had regulation effects on gene transcription for forming falagellum,extracellular polysaccharide,outer membrane protein and oxidative stress in Vibrio cholera.Conclusion As a RNA chaperone,Hfq could affect Vibrio cholera in its biofilm formation,resistance to oxidative stress and antibiotics resistance through regulating the transcription of multiple metabolic genes and virulence genes,which indicates that Hfq,combined with other regulators,may play a key role in the complex regulation of metabolic genes and virulence genes.