Performance of screening of contacts of COVID-19 cases in same flight / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To understand the performance of 2019-nCoV nucleic acid detection in screening of contacts of COVID-19 cases in same flights and provide evidence for the effective screening of persons at high risk for the infection in domestic flights. Methods: The information of passengers who took same domestic flights with COVID-19 cases in China from April 1, 2020 to April 30, 2022 were retrospectively collected,and χ2 test was used to analyze positive nucleic acid detection rates in the passengers in different times before the onsets of the index cases, in different seat rows and in epidemic periods of different 2019-nCoV variants. Results: During the study period, a total of 433 index cases were identified among 23 548 passengers in 370 flights. Subsequently, 72 positive cases of 2019-nCoV nucleic acid were detected in the passengers, in whom 57 were accompanying persons of the index cases. Further analysis of the another 15 passengers who tested positive for the nucleic acid showed that 86.67% of them had onsets or positive detections within 3 days after the diagnosis of the index cases, and the boarding times were all within 4 days before the onsets of the index cases. The positive detection rate in the passengers who seated in first three rows before and after the index cases was 0.15% (95%CI: 0.08%-0.27%), significantly higher than in the passengers in other rows (0.04%, 95%CI: 0.02%-0.10%, P=0.007),and there was no significant difference in the positive detection rate among the passengers in each of the 3 rows before and after the index cases (P=0.577). No significant differences were found in the positive detection rate in the passengers, except the accompanying persons, among the epidemics caused by different 2019-nCoV variants (P=0.565). During the Omicron epidemic period, all the positive detections in the passengers, except the accompanying persons, were within 3 days before the onset of the index cases. Conclusions: The screening test of 2019-nCoV nucleic acid can be conducted in the passengers took the same flights within 4 days before the onsets of the index cases on board. Passengers who seated within 3 rows from the index cases can considered as the close contacts at high risk for 2019-nCoV, for whom screening should be conducted first and special managements are needed. The passengers in other rows can be classified as general risk persons for screening and management.

Forecasting the burden of disease from diabetes under the scenarios of specific risk factors control in China in 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To forecast mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes, and to simulate the impact of controlling risk factors by 2030 in China. Methods: We simulated the burden of disease from diabetes in six scenarios according to the development goals of risk factors control by the WHO and Chinese government. Based on the theory of comparative risk assessment and the estimates of the burden of disease for China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, we used the proportional change model to project the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes under different scenarios of risk factors control in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposures to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued. Mortality, age-standardized mortality, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes would increase to 32.57/100 000, 17.32/100 000, and 0.84% by 2030, respectively. During that time, mortality, age-standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality for males would all be higher than for females. If the goals of controlling risk factors were all achieved, the number of deaths from diabetes in 2030 would decrease by 62.10% compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends in exposure to risk factors, and the probability of premature mortality would drop to 0.29%. If only the exposure to a single risk factor were achieved by 2030, high fasting plasma glucose control would have the greatest impact on diabetes, resulting in a 56.00% reduction in deaths compared to the predicted numbers based on the historical trends, followed by high BMI (4.92%), smoking (0.65%), and low physical activity (0.53%). Conclusions: Risk factors control plays an important role in reducing the number of deaths, age-standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from diabetes. We suggest taking comprehensive measures to control relevant risk factors for certain populations and regions, to achieve the goal of reducing the burden of disease from diabetes as expected.

Association between exposure patterns of adverse childhood experiences and anxiety symptom trajectories in medical college students / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective: To analyze the association between exposure patterns of adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) and anxiety symptom trajectories in medical college students. Methods: A survey was conducted on first-year students from Anhui Medical College and Anqing Medical College, using the Childhood Abuse Questionnaire, Family Disability Questionnaire, Childhood Adverse Social Experience Item, and Anxiety Self Rating Scale. The baseline survey was conducted from November to December 2019, and two follow-up visits were conducted once every six months until November to December 2020. The latent class analysis (LCA) was used to analyze the exposure patterns of ACEs. The latent class growth analysis (LCGA) was used to analyze the development trajectory of anxiety symptoms. The multiple logistic regression model was used to analyze the correlation between different exposure patterns of ACEs and the trajectory of anxiety symptom trajectories. Results: A total of 3 662 college students aged (19.2±1.0) were surveyed. The LCA showed that the exposure patterns of ACEs could be divided into the "high ACEs" group (13.4%), "high neglect/emotional abuse" group (25.7%), "high family dysfunction" group (6.9%), "high neglect" group (27.1%), and "low ACEs" group (26.3%). The LCGA divided anxiety trajectories into four groups: "high anxiety decline" (7.1%),"anxiety increase "(4.1%), "moderate anxiety"(52.9%), and "low anxiety"(35.9%). Using the low ACEs group as a reference group, compared with the low anxiety trajectory, the high ACEs group, high neglect/emotional abuse group, high family dysfunction group, high neglect group, and medium to high-level anxiety trajectory were all associated with an increased risk (P<0.05). Conclusion: There is heterogeneity in ACEs exposure patterns among medical college students, and ACEs exposure patterns are important influencing factors for anxiety symptom trajectories.

Changes in Notified Incidence of Pulmonary Tuberculosis in China, 2005-2020 / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

OBJECTIVE@#To evaluate the trend of notified incidence of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) in China at different periods by population and region and to explore the effect of TB prevention and control in recent years.@*METHODS@#Using pooled data on TB cases reported by the TB Information Management Reporting System (TBIMS) from 2005 to 2020, we calculated the annual percentage change (APC) using the Joinpoint regression model.@*RESULTS@#From 2005 to 2020, a total of 16.2 million cases of PTB were reported in China, with an average notified incidence of 75.5 per 100,000 population. The age standardization rate (ASR) continued to decline from 116.9 (/100,000) in 2005 to 47.6 (/100,000) in 2020, with an average annual decrease of 5.6% [APC = -5.6, 95% confidence interval ( CI): -7.0 to -4.2]. The smallest decline occurred in 2011-2018 (APC = -3.4, 95% CI: -4.6 to -2.3) and the largest decrease in 2018-2020 (APC = -9.2, 95% CI: -16.4 to -1.3). From 2005 to 2020, the ASR in males (159.8 per 100,000 in 2005, 72.0 per 100,000 in 2020) was higher than that in females (62.2 per 100,000 in 2005, 32.3 per 100,000 in 2020), with an average annual decline of 6.0% for male and 4.9% for female. The average notified incidence was the highest among older adults (65 years and over) (182.3/100,000), with an average annual decline of 6.4%; children (0-14 years) were the lowest (4.8/100,000), with an average annual decline of 7.3%, but a significant increase of 3.3% between 2014 and 2020 (APC = 3.3, 95% CI: 1.4 to 5.2); middle-aged (35-64 years) decreased by 5.8%; and youth (15-34 years) decreased by an average annual rate of 4.2%. The average ASR in rural areas (81.3/100,000) is higher than that in urban areas (76.1/100,000). The average annual decline in rural areas was 4.5% and 6.3% in urban areas. South China had the highest average ASR (103.2/100,000), with an average annual decline of 5.9%, while North China had the lowest (56.5/100,000), with an average annual decline of 5.9%. The average ASR in the southwest was 95.3 (/100,000), with the smallest annual decline (APC = -4.5, 95% CI: -5.5 to -3.5); the average ASR in the Northwest China was 100.1 (/100,000), with the largest annual decline (APC = -6.4, 95% CI: -10.0 to -2.7); Central, Northeastern, and Eastern China declined by an average of 5.2%, 6.2%, and 6.1% per year, respectively.@*CONCLUSIONS@#From 2005 to 2020, the notified incidence of PTB in China continued to decline, falling by 55%. For high-risk groups such as males, older adults, high-burden areas in South, Southwest, and Northwest China, and rural regions, proactive screening should be strengthened to provide timely and effective anti-TB treatment and patient management services for confirmed cases. There is also a necessity to be vigilant about the upward trend of children in recent years, the specific reasons for which need to be further studied.

Effect of postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy on prognosis of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma:a multicenter retrospective study / 中华外科杂志

Objectives: To examine the influence of adjuvant chemotherapy after radical resection on the survival of patients with intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma(ICC) and to identify patients who may benefit from it. Methods: The clinical and pathological data of 654 patients with ICC diagnosed by postoperative pathology from December 2011 to December 2017 at 13 hospitals in China were collected retrospectively. According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria,455 patients were included in this study,including 69 patients (15.2%) who received adjuvant chemotherapy and 386 patients (84.8%) who did not receive adjuvant chemotherapy. There were 278 males and 177 females,with age of 59 (16) years (M(IQR))(range:23 to 88 years). Propensity score matching (PSM) method was used to balance the difference between adjuvant chemotherapy group and non-adjuvant chemotherapy group. Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot the survival curve,the Log-rank test was used to compare the difference of overall survival(OS) and recurrence free survival(RFS)between the two groups. Univariate analysis was used to determine prognostic factors for OS. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were then performed for prognostic factors with P<0.10 to identify potential independent risk factors. The study population were stratified by included study variables and the AJCC staging system,and a subgroup analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method to explore the potential benefit subgroup population of adjuvant chemotherapy. Results: After 1∶1 PSM matching,69 patients were obtained in each group. There was no significant difference in baseline data between the two groups (all P>0.05). After PSM,Cox multivariate analysis showed that lymph node metastasis (HR=3.06,95%CI:1.52 to 6.16,P=0.039),width of resection margin (HR=0.56,95%CI:0.32 to 0.99,P=0.044) and adjuvant chemotherapy (HR=0.51,95%CI:0.29 to 0.91,P=0.022) were independent prognostic factors for OS. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that the median OS time of adjuvant chemotherapy group was significantly longer than that of non-adjuvant chemotherapy group (P<0.05). There was no significant difference in RFS time between the adjuvant chemotherapy group and the non-adjuvant chemotherapy group (P>0.05). Subgroup analysis showed that,the OS of female patients,without HBV infection,carcinoembryonic antigen<9.6 μg/L,CA19-9≥200 U/ml,intraoperative bleeding<400 ml,tumor diameter>5 cm,microvascular invasion negative,without lymph node metastasis,and AJCC stage Ⅲ patients could benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy (all P<0.05). Conclusion: Adjuvant chemotherapy can prolong the OS of patients with ICC after radical resection,and patients with tumor diameter>5 cm,without lymph node metastasis,AJCC stage Ⅲ,and microvascular invasion negative are more likely to benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy.

Residents' sense of acquisition and influencing factors in China's Sanitary City Initiative / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To analyze the residents' sense of acquisition (recognition, perceptibility and satisfaction) and influencing factors in China's Sanitary City Initiative. Methods: A cross-sectional survey was conducted from December 2020 to February 2021. The data about the residents' sense of acquisition were collected by using questionnaire from 2 465 residents who were aged ≥18 years and had lived in local communities for at least one year in 31, 14 and 16 cities with national sanitary city title in eastern, central and western China the influencing factors of residents' sense of acquisition in China's Sanitary City Initiative were analyzed by using multivariate multilevel model. Results: The total score of residents' sense of acquisition in China's Sanitary City Initiative was 231.15±32.45. After converting the scores according to the 100-score standardized method, the results showed that the recognition score, perception score and the satisfaction score were 85.02, 59.08 and 61.42, respectively. The results of influencing factors analysis showed that education level, gender, marital status, age, prevalence of physical exercise and self-assessment of health status were correlated with the scores of residents' recognition (β:1.24-2.54,all P<0.05); the concentration of inhalable fine particles , the green coverage of built-up area, the level of GDP per capita and the type of residential community, prevalence of physical exercise and self-assessment of health status were correlated with the score of residents' perception (β:1.76-8.86,all P<0.05); the concentration of inhalable fine particles , the green coverage of built-up area, the level of GDP per capita and the type of residential community, education level, prevalence of physical exercise and self-assessment of health status were correlated with the score of residents' satisfaction (β:1.34-6.26,all P<0.05). Conclusions: The total score of residents' sense of acquisition in China's Sanitary City Initiative was relatively high, indicating that the policy has been widely recognized. The detailed management of policy implementation should be strengthened in the future, and more attention needs to be paid to actual needs of the residents to further improve the residents' sense of acquisition in China's Sanitary City Initiative.

Propensity score-matched study of uni-condylar arthroplasty in elderly patients with knee osteoarthritis / 中国骨伤

OBJECTIVE@#To investigate the clinical efficacy of unicompartmental knee arthroplasty (UKA) in the treatment of knee osteoarthritis in patients over 75 years old.@*METHODS@#The clinical efficacy of primary fixed platform UKA in patients with osteoarthritis, was retrospectively analyzed from October 2014 to November 2020. Age, body mass index (BMI), range of motion (ROM), preoperative joint function score, the quality of life score and other preoperative indicators were measured by propensity score matching (PSM). The patients were divided into elderly group (≥75 years old) and control group (<75 years old). Oxford knee score(OKS), Western Ontario McMaster Universities osteoarthritis index(WOMAC), Short Form-12 including physical component summary (PCS), mental component summary(MCS), minimal clinically important difference(MCID ) and clinical complications were evaluated preoperatively and postoperatively.@*RESULTS@#A total of 514 patients were analyzed, 428 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria. A propensity-score matching study was conducted to eliminate confounding factors. After 1∶2 propensity match, there were 84 patients in elderly group (≥75 years), age ranged from 75 to 88 years old, with an average of (78.79±3.08) years old, and 168 patients in control group (<75 years), age ranged from 47 to 74 years old, with an average of (64.10±5.96)years old. The follow-up duration of two groups ranged from 12 to 84 months with an average of (29.35±16.52) months in elderly group, and 12 to 85 months with an average of (31.83±17.34) months in control group. There was only significant difference in age between the elderly and control groups preoperatively (P<0.01). Postoperatively, the elderly group showed significantly higher WOMAC (P<0.01) and lower SF-12 PCS scores (P<0.01) as compared to the control group. There was no significant difference between the elderly group and the control group in knee range of motion, OKS and the proportion of each scoring system reaching the minimum clinical difference value (P>0.05). In the aspect of preperative complications, the elderly group exhibited more surgical site complications and postoperative delirium compared to control group(P<0.05). The differences in other indicators including deep vein thrombosis, acute urinary retention, cardiovascular events, cerebrovascular events and radiolucent lines around prothesis were not statistically significant(P>0.05).@*CONCLUSION@#UKA in the treatment of elderly patients over 75 years old with knee osteoarthritis was safe and feasible, and could obtain satisfactory short-term efficacy.

Survival evaluation and external validation of prognostic scores in postoperative patients with spinal metastasis of lung cancer / 中华骨科杂志

Objective:To analyze the prognostic factors and evaluate the accuracy of existing survival prediction models in patients with lung cancer-derived spinal metastases who have undergone open surgery.Methods:According to the inclusion criteria, the data of 76 patients with spinal metastasis of lung cancer who underwent open surgery in the department of Orthopedics in Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital were collected from January 2019 to November 2021. The relationship between the number of bone metastasis, pathological type, visceral metastasis, epidermal growth factor receptor mutation, serum alkaline phosphatase (ALP), hemoglobin (Hb), Frankel grade and postoperative survival time in 76 cases was analyzed by Cox logical regression analysis and Kaplan-Meier method to determine the potential prognostic factors. The accuracy of Tomita score, Tokuhashi revised score, Katagiri New score, New England Spinal Metastasis Score score (NESMS) and Skeletal Oncology Research Group (SORG) machine learning algorithm in predicting postoperative survival time was verified by drawing receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.Results:The median follow-up time of the patients was 18.0 months (2.3-36.0 months). The median survival time was 12.6 months [95% CI (10.8, 14.4)]. The survival rates at 6 and 12 months after operation were 71.6% and 52.0%, respectively. Multivariate regression analysis showed that ALP [ HR=0.23, 95% CI (0.11, 0.48), P<0.001], Hb [ HR=4.48, 95% CI (2.07, 9.70), P< 0.001] and EGFR mutation [ HR=2.22, 95% CI (1.04, 4.76), P=0.040] were independent predictors of prognosis. The accuracy of Tomita score, Tokuhashi revised score (2005), Katagiri New score and NESMS score in predicting 1-year mortality was 58.7%, 65.7%, 70.5% and 65% respectively, and the accuracy in predicting 6-month mortality was 63.7%, 62.2%, 61.2% and 56.8% respectively. The accuracy of SORG machine learning algorithm in predicting 1-year and 90 d mortality was 81.1%, 67.5%, respectively. Conclusion:No EGFR mutation, ALP>164 U/L and Hb≤125 g/L were risk factors affecting the survival of patients with spinal metastasis of lung cancer. SORG machine learning algorithm has good accuracy in predicting the postoperative survival rate of patients with lung cancer spinal metastasis.

A comparative study on the clinical effects of hip arthroplasty through direct anterior approach in lateral decubitus in the treatment of hip osteoarthritis caused by Kaschin-Beck disease and congenital acetabular dysplasia / 中华地方病学杂志

Objective:To compare the clinical effects of hip arthroplasty through direct anterior approach (DAA) in lateral decubitus in the treatment of hip osteoarthritis caused by Kaschin-Beck disease and congenital acetabular dysplasia.Methods:The prospective study method was used to select the patients who needed hip arthroplasty in the Fourth Department of Orthopedics, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University from January 2015 to December 2019. All of them were operated with lateral decubitus DAA. According to the inclusion criteria, they were divided into Kacshin-Beck disease hip osteoarthritis group (group A) and congenital acetabular dysplasia hip osteoarthritis group (group B). Hip Harris score, Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) score, visual analogue scale (VAS) score were conducted, and hip abduction angle and flexion angle were measured before surgery, 3, 14 days and 1, 3, and 12 months after surgery.Results:Nineteen and twenty-two patients were included in group A and group B, respectively. All patients successfully completed the surgery. There was no significant difference in Harris score between the two groups before surgery, 3, 14 days, and 1, 12 months after surgery ( P > 0.05). There were no significant differences in WOMAC score, VAS score, hip abduction angle and hip flexion angle between the two groups before surgery and each time point after surgery ( P > 0.05). In the same group, there were significant differences in Harris score, WOMAC score, VAS score, hip abduction angle and hip flexion angle at different time points ( P < 0.001). All postoperative indicators were significantly improved compared with those before surgery. Conclusions:There is no significant difference in the clinical effects of hip arthroplasty through lateral decubitus DAA in the treatment of hip osteoarthritis caused by Kaschin-Beck disease and congenital acetabular dysplasia. This surgical method has good therapeutic effect on both types of hip osteoarthritis.

Joint Association of Metabolic Health and Obesity with Ten-Year Risk of Cardiovascular Disease among Chinese Adults / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

OBJECTIVE@#This study aims to investigate the association of metabolic phenotypes that are jointly determined by body mass index (BMI) or fat mass percentage and metabolic health status with the ten-year risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) among Chinese adults.@*METHODS@#Data were obtained from a cross-sectional study. BMI and body fat mass percentage (FMP) combined with the metabolic status were used to define metabolic phenotypes. Multiple linear regression and logistic regression were used to examine the effects of metabolic phenotypes on CVD risk.@*RESULTS@#A total of 13,239 adults aged 34-75 years were included in this study. Compared with the metabolically healthy non-obese (MHNO) phenotype, the metabolically unhealthy non-obese (MUNO) and metabolically unhealthy obese (MUO) phenotypes defined by BMI showed a higher CVD risk [odds ratio, OR (95% confidence interval, CI): 2.34 (1.89-2.89), 3.45 (2.50-4.75), respectively], after adjusting for the covariates. The MUNO and MUO phenotypes defined by FMP showed a higher CVD risk [ OR (95% CI): 2.31 (1.85-2.88), 2.63 (1.98-3.48), respectively] than the MHNO phenotype. The metabolically healthy obese phenotype, regardless of being defined by BMI or FMP, showed no CVD risk compared with the MHNO phenotype.@*CONCLUSION@#General obesity without central obesity does not increase CVD risk in metabolically healthy individuals. FMP might be a more meaningful factor for the evaluation of the association of obesity with CVD risk. Obesity and metabolic status have a synergistic effect on CVD risk.

Diagnosis and treatment for emphysematous pyelonephritis: analysis of 14 cases from a single centre / 中华外科杂志

Objective: To examine the modalities of treatment and clinical outcomes of emphysematous pyelonephritis (EPN), in order to improve the survival rate of EPN patients. Methods: Totally 14 patients diagnosed as EPN between October 2011 and November 2020 at Department of Urology, Sir Run Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine were included in this article. Data collection including patient demographics, clinical manifestations, management and clinical outcomes were conducted by retrospective charts review, after receiving the institutional review board's approval. There were 11 females and 3 males with a median age of 59 years (range: 52 to 73 years). The lesions were located on the left side in 10 patients and right side in 4 patients. All the 14 patients suffered from fever, and present with severe sepsis or septic shock. The median time from symptom onset to admission to hospital was 3 days(range: 2 to 5 days). All cases had diabetes mellitus. Escherichia coli was the most common organism been cultured (11 cases), while Klebsiella pneumonia was the second (3 cases). CT scan showed bubbly or located gas in the renal parenchyma in 5 cases and presence of steaky or mottled gas in the renal parenchyma in 9 cases. All patients had been admitted to ICU for anti-septic shock therapy. Three patients had undergone percutaneous catheter drainage along with broad-spectrum antibiotics therapy while 3 patients had immediate nephrectomy, the other 8 cases had a combination of an initial percutaneous catheter drainage and second stage nephrectomy. Results: In this case series, 3 patients were died from EPN while the other 11 were survived. The median ICU stay time was 6 days (range: 3 to 11 days). Of the 3 patients died from EPN, 2 had undergone percutaneous catheter drainage along and 1 had received immediate nephrectomy. Among the 11 patients who were survived, only 1 had received percutaneous catheter drainage while the other 10 received nephrectomy (8 patients had staged nephrectomy). Follow-up was performed 6 months after discharge. Of the 11 surviving patients, 2 were lost to follow-up, and the remaining 9 patients had an creatine level of (118.4±29.4) μmol/L (range: 89 to 176 μmol/L). Conclusions: For patients coupled with diabetes who were initially diagnosed as acute pyelonephritis, the possibility of EPN should be considered when the disease progressed rapidly especially septic shock occurred. On the basis of empirical broad-spectrum antibiotics therapy and standardized anti-septic shock treatment, a combination of an initial percutaneous catheter drainage and second stage nephrectomy could be efficacious.

Spatiotemporal evolution of COVID-19 epidemic in the early phase in China / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: Based on the geographic information systems, we exploreed the spatiotemporal clustering and the development and evolution of COVID-19 epidemic at prefectural level in China from the time when the epidemic was discovered to the time when the lockdown ended in Wuhan. Methods: The information and data of the confirmed COVID-19 cases from December 8, 2019 to April 8, 2020 were collected from 367 prefectures in China for a spatial autocorrelation analysis with software GeoDa, and software ArcGIS was used to visualize the results. Software SatScan was used for spatiotemporal scanning analysis to visualize the hot-spot areas of the epidemic. Results: The incidence of new cases of COVID-19 had obvious global autocorrelation and the partial autocorrelation results showed that incidence of COVID-19 had different spatial distribution at different times from December 8, 2019 to March 4, 2020. There was no significant difference in global autocorrelation coefficient from March 5, 2020 to April 8, 2020. The statistical analysis of spatiotemporal scanning identified two kinds of spatiotemporal clustering areas, the first class clustering areas included 10 prefectures, mainly distributed in Hubei, from January 13 to February 25, 2020. The secondary class clustering areas included 142 prefectures, mainly distributed in provinces in the north and east of Hubei, from January 23 to February 1, 2020. Conclusions: There was a clear spatiotemporal correlation in the distribution of the outbreaks in the early phase of COVID-19 epidemic (December 8, 2019-March 4, 2020) in China. With the decrease of the case and effective prevention and control measures, the epidemics had no longer significant correlations among areas from March 5 to April 8. The study results showed relationship with time points of start and adjustment of emergency response at different degree in provinces. Furthermore, improving the early detection of new outbreaks and taking timely and effective prevention and control measures played an important role in blocking the transmission.

Prediction on the burden of disease of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and simulation of the effectiveness of controlling risk factors in China by 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To forecast the burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in China by 2030 and evaluate the effectiveness of controlling risk factors based on the predictive model. Methods: Based on the relationship between the death of COPD and exposure to risk factors and the theory of comparative risk assessment, we used the estimates of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD2015) for China, targets for controlling risk factors, and proportion change model to project the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality from chronic respiratory diseases by 2030 in different scenarios and to evaluate the impact of controlling the included risk factors to the disease burden of COPD in 2030. Results: If the trends in exposure to risk factors from 1990 to 2015 continued, the number of deaths and the mortality for COPD would be 1.06 million and 73.85 per 100 000 population in China by 2030, respectively, with an increase of 15.81% and 10.69% compared to those in 2015. Compared to 2015, the age-standardized mortality rate would decrease by 38.88%, and the premature mortality would reduce by 52.73% by 2030. If the smoking rate and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentration separately achieve their control targets by 2030, there would be 0.34 and 0.27 million deaths that could be avoided compared to the predicted numbers based on the natural trends in exposure to risk factors and the probability of premature death would reduce to 0.59% and 0.52%, respectively. If the control targets of all included risk factors were achieved by 2030, a total of 0.53 million deaths would be averted, and the probability of premature death would decrease to 0.44%. Conclusions: If the exposures to risk factors continued as showed from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality for COPD would increase by 2030 compared to 2015, and the standardized mortality and the probability of premature death would decrease significantly, which would achieve the targets of preventing and controlling COPD. If the exposure to the included risk factors all achieved the targets by 2030, the burden of COPD would be reduced, suggesting that the control of tobacco use and air pollution should be enhanced to prevent and control COPD.

Prediction of disease burden caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control in China, 2030 / 中华流行病学杂志

Objective: To predict the number of deaths, standardized mortality and probability of premature mortality caused by malignant cancer in the context of risk factor control at different levels in China in 2030, and assess the possibility of achieving the target of reducing the probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. Methods: According to the risk factor control standard for malignant cancer used both at home and abroad, the results of China from Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 were used to calculate the population attributable fraction of the risk factors. Based on the comparative risk assessment theory, the deaths of malignant cancer were classified as attributable deaths and un-attributable deaths. Proportional change model was used to predict risk factor exposure and un-attributable deaths of malignant cancer in the future, then the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer in 2030 was estimated. Data analyses were performed by using software R 3.6.1. Results: If the risk factor exposure level during 1990-2015 remains, the number of deaths, standardized mortality rate, and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer would increase to 3.62 million, 153.96/100 000 and 8.92% by 2030, respectively. If the risk factor exposure control level meets the requirement, the probability of premature mortality from cancer in people aged 30-70 years would drop to 7.57% by 2030. Conclusions: The control of risk factor exposure will play an important role in reducing deaths, standardized mortality rate and probability of premature mortality of malignant cancer. But more efforts are needed to achieve the goals of Health China Action.

Prediction on the cardio-cerebrovascular death and probability of premature death caused by common risk factors in China in 2030 / 中华预防医学杂志

Objective: Predictive models were used to evaluate the impact of common risk factors on the number of cardio-cerebrovascular deaths and the probability of premature death. Methods: Using the data for China estimated by the Global Burden of Disease study 2015 (GBD 2015), we calculated the population attribution fraction (PAF) of risk factors. The proportional change model was used to estimate the number of unattributable deaths by 2030, and to predict the number of deaths, mortality, standardized mortality and probability of premature death by 2030. Results: According to the natural change trend of risk factors from 1990 to 2015, the number of deaths and mortality would reach 6.12 million and 428.53/100 000 by 2030, with an increase of 59.92% and 52.87%. By 2030, the probability of premature death from cardio-cerebrovascular diseases among Chinese aged 30-70 years old would continue to decline, from 11.43% to 11.28% for men, and from 5.79% to 4.43% for women. If the goals of all included risk factors were reached by 2030, 2 289 200 cardio-cerebrovascular deaths would be avoided. If only the exposure to a single risk factor was achieved by 2030, blood pressure, total cholesterol, and fine particulate matter exposure were the three most important factors affecting cardio-cerebrovascular deaths, which would reduce 1 332 800, 609 100 and 306 800 deaths, respectively. Among the involved risk factors, the control of blood pressure would mostly decrease the number of deaths due to ischemic heart disease and hemorrhagic stroke, about 677 300 and 391 100 deaths, accordingly. Conclusion: The control of risk factors is of great significance in reducing deaths and probability of premature death due to cardio-cerebrovascular diseases. If the control targets of all risk factors could be achieved by 2030, the burden of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases would be reduced greatly.

Atractylenolide III alleviates sepsis-mediated lung injury via inhibition of FoxO1 and VNN1 protein

ABSTRACT Purpose: To evaluate the influence of atractylenolide (Atr) III on sepsis-induced lung damage. Methods: We constructed a mouse sepsis model through cecal ligation and puncture. These mice were allocated to the normal, sepsis, sepsis + Atr III-L (2 mg/kg), as well as Atr III-H (8 mg/kg) group. Lung injury and pulmonary fibrosis were accessed via hematoxylin-eosin (HE) and Masson's staining. We used terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL) and flow cytometry for detecting sepsis-induced lung cell apoptosis. The contents of the inflammatory cytokines in lung tissue were measured via enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Results: Atr III-H did not only reduce sepsis-induced lung injury and apoptosis level, but also curbed the secretion of inflammatory factors. Atr III-H substantially ameliorated lung function and raised Bcl-2 expression. Atr III-H eased the pulmonary fibrosis damage and Bax, caspase-3, Vanin-1 (VNN1), as well as Forkhead Box Protein O1 (FoxO1) expression. Conclusions: Atr III alleviates sepsis-mediated lung injury via inhibition of FoxO1 and VNN1 protein.

Developing a Subjective Evaluation Scale for Assessing the Built Environments of China's Hygienic City Initiative / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Objective@#To develop a preliminary subjective evaluation scale for assessing the built environments of China's Hygienic City Initiative and to evaluate its reliability and validity.@*Methods@#The initial items of the scale were determined based on a review of policy documents and consultations with experts. The final items of the scale were confirmed through individual interviews with residents combined with the discretetrend method, critical ratio method, correlation coefficient method, and factor analysis method. Then, the dimensions of the scale were determined using exploratory factor analysis (EFA). The Cronbach's @*Results@#A scale containing five dimensions with 22 items was established, including urban lifestyle, governance, basic functions, environmental sanitation, and amenities. The Cronbach's @*Conclusion@#The preliminarily subjective evaluation scale for assessing the built environments of China's Hygienic City Initiative demonstrates a high level of reliability and validity. Additional empirical studies should be carried out to further verify the value of the scale in terms of practical application.

Pharmacodynamics and intestinal flora research on different processed products of Puerariae Lobatae Radix and Puerariae Thomsonii Radix / 中国中药杂志

This study aims to explore the pharmacodynamic differences of Puerariae Lobatae Radix(PLR), Puerariae Thomsonii Radix(PTR) and their different processed products and the influences of these medical materials on the diversity of intestinal flora. The Sennae Folium-induced diarrhea model, streptozotocin(STZ)-induced diabetes model and L-nitro-arginine methyl ester(L-NAME)-induced hypertension model were used to compare the pharmacodynamic differences in anti-diarrhea, blood glucose reduction and blood pressure lowering among raw, roasted and vinegar-processed PLR and PTR. The effects of raw and processed PLR and PTR on intestinal flora diversity of rats were evaluated by 16 S rDNA high-throughput sequencing. The roasted PLR and PTR performed better in anti-diarrhea, especially the former. PLR and its processed products all presented the efficacy of reducing blood glucose, and the vinegar-processed PLR was the most outstanding. The raw PTR was not that effective in reducing blood glucose, whereas its efficacy was improved after roasting and vinegar processing. Both PLR and PTR were capable of lowering blood pressure to a certain extent, and PLR is superior to PTR in this aspect. Further, the vinegar-processed PLR showed the best effect. The diversity of intestinal flora was different among rats to which different products of PLR and PTR were administered. The roasted PLR led to the highest abundance of Lactobacillus, which was closely related to its best antidiarrheal effect. The highest abilities of vinegar-processed PLR to lower blood glucose and blood pressure were associated with the high abundance of Blautia and Prevotella_9. This study lays a foundation for elucidating the processing mechanisms of PLR and PTR and provides a basis for their further development and application.

Physical Activity and Sedentary Behaviors among Chinese Children: Recent Trends and Correlates / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

Objective@#This study was aimed at examining the trends and correlates of physical activity (PA) and sedentary behaviors among Chinese children.@*Methods@#A total of 4,341 subjects (6,936 observations) aged 6-17 years who participated in the China Health and Nutrition Survey (2004-2015) were included. Of the subjects, 41% participated in the survey twice or more. Random-effects ordinal regression models and repeated-measures mixed-effects models were used to examine the PA trends. Quantile regression models were applied to examine the factors influencing PA and sedentary behaviors.@*Results@#From 2004 to 2015, the prevalence of physical inactivity among Chinese children aged 6-17 years increased by 5.5% [odds ratio ( @*Conclusions@#A declining PA trend among Chinese children aged 6-17 years was observed from 2004 to 2015, and certain subgroups and geographical areas are at higher risk of physical inactivity.

In vivo study of liposome-modified polyetheretherketone implant on bacteriostasis and osseointegration / 北京大学学报(医学版)

OBJECTIVE@#To develop dexamethasone plus minocycline-loaded liposomes (Dex/Mino liposomes) and apply them to improve bioinert polyetheretherketone (PEEK) surface, which could prevent post-operative bacterial contamination, enhance ossification for physiologic osseointegration, and finally reduce implant failure rates.@*METHODS@#Dex/Mino liposomes were covalently grafted onto the PEEK surface using polydopamine (pDA) coating as a medium. Confocal laser scanning microscopy was used to confirm the binding of fluorescently labeled liposomes onto the PEEK substrate, and a microplate reader was used to semiquantitatively measure the average fluorescence intensity of fluorescently labeled liposome-decorated PEEK surfaces. Moreover, the mouse subcutaneous infection model and the beagle femur implantation model were respectively conducted to verify the bioactivity of Dex/Mino liposome-modified PEEK in vivo, by means of micro computed tomography (micro-CT) and hematoxylin and eosin (HE) staining analysis.@*RESULTS@#The qualitative and quantitative results of fluorescently labeled liposomes showed that, the red fluorescence intensity of the PEEK-pDA-lipo group was stronger than that of the PEEK-NF-lipo group (P < 0.05); the liposomes were successfully and uniformly decorated on the PEEK surfaces due to the pDA coating. After mouse subcutaneous implantation of PEEKs for 24 hours, HE staining results showed that the number of inflammatory cells in the PEEK-Dex/Mino lipo group were lower than that in the inert PEEK group (P < 0.05), indicating a lower degree of infection in the test group. These results suggested that the Mino released from the liposome-functionalized surface provided an effective bacteriostasis in vivo. After beagle femoral implantation of PEEK for 8 weeks, micro-CT results showed that the PEEK-Dex/Mino lipo group newly formed more continuous bone when compared with the inert PEEK group; HE staining results showed that more new bones were formed in the PEEK-Dex/Mino lipo group than in the inert PEEK group, which were firmly bonded to the functionalized PEEK surface and extended along the PEEK interface. These results suggested that the Dex released from the liposome-functionalized surface induced effective bone regeneration in vivo.@*CONCLUSION@#Dex/Mino liposome modification enhanced the bioactivity of inert PEEK, the functionalized PEEK with enhanced antibacterial and osseointegrative capacity has great potential as an orthopedic/dental implant material for clinical application.