RESUMO
Objectives: To analyze the influencing factors of No. 253 lymph node metastasis in descending colon cancer, sigmoid colon cancer, and rectal cancer, and to investigate the prognosis of No. 253 lymph node-positive patients by propensity score matching analysis. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed on clinical data from patients with descending colon cancer, sigmoid colon cancer, rectosigmoid junction cancer, and rectal cancer who underwent surgery between January 2015 and December 2019 from the Cancer Hospital of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences, China-Japan Friendship Hospital, Peking Union Medical College Hospital, General Hospital of the Chinese People's Liberation Army, and Peking University Cancer Hospital. A total of 3 016 patients were included according to inclusion and exclusion criteria, comprising 1 848 males and 1 168 females, with 1 675 patients aged≥60 years and 1 341 patients aged<60 years. Clinical and pathological factors from single center data were subjected to univariate analysis to determine influencing factors of No. 253 lymph node metastasis, using a binary Logistic regression model. Based on the results of the multivariate analysis, a nomogram was constructed. External validation was performed using data from other multicenter sources, evaluating the effectiveness through the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the calibration curve. Using data from a single center, the No. 253 lymph node-positive group was matched with the negative group in a 1∶2 ratio (caliper value=0.05). Survival analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method and Log-rank test. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine independent prognostic factors. Results: (1) The tumor diameter≥5 cm (OR=4.496,95%CI:1.344 to 15.035, P=0.015) T stage (T4 vs. T1: OR=11.284, 95%CI:7.122 to 15.646, P<0.01), N stage (N2 vs. N0: OR=60.554, 95%CI:7.813 to 469.055, P=0.043), tumor differentiation (moderate vs. well differentiated: OR=1.044, 95%CI:1.009 to 1.203, P=0.044; poor vs. well differentiated: OR=1.013, 95%CI:1.002 to 1.081, P=0.013), tumor location (sigmoid colon vs. descending colon: OR=9.307, 95%CI:2.236 to 38.740, P=0.002), pathological type (mucinous adenocarcinoma vs. adenocarcinoma: OR=79.923, 95%CI:15.113 to 422.654, P<0.01; signet ring cell carcinoma vs. adenocarcinoma: OR=27.309, 95%CI:4.191 to 177.944, P<0.01), and positive vascular invasion (OR=3.490, 95%CI:1.033 to 11.793, P=0.044) were independent influencing factors of No. 253 lymph node metastasis. (2) The area under the curve of the nomogram prediction model was 0.912 (95%CI: 0.869 to 0.955) for the training set and 0.921 (95%CI: 0.903 to 0.937) for the external validation set. The calibration curve demonstrated good consistency between the predicted outcomes and the actual observations. (3) After propensity score matching, the No. 253 lymph node-negative group did not reach the median overall survival time, while the positive group had a median overall survival of 20 months. The 1-, 3- and 5-year overall survival rates were 83.9%, 61.3% and 51.6% in the negative group, and 63.2%, 36.8% and 15.8% in the positive group, respectively. Multivariate Cox analysis revealed that the T4 stage (HR=3.067, 95%CI: 2.357 to 3.990, P<0.01), the N2 stage (HR=1.221, 95%CI: 0.979 to 1.523, P=0.043), and No. 253 lymph node positivity (HR=2.902, 95%CI:1.987 to 4.237, P<0.01) were independent adverse prognostic factors. Conclusions: Tumor diameter ≥5 cm, T4 stage, N2 stage, tumor location in the sigmoid colon, adverse pathological type, poor differentiation, and vascular invasion are influencing factors of No. 253 lymph node metastasis. No. 253 lymph node positivity indicates a poorer prognosis. Therefore, strict dissection for No. 253 lymph node should be performed for colorectal cancer patients with these high-risk factors.
RESUMO
Objective: To examine a predictive model that incorporating high risk pathological factors for the prognosis of stage Ⅰ to Ⅲ colon cancer. Methods: This study retrospectively collected clinicopathological information and survival outcomes of stage Ⅰ~Ⅲ colon cancer patients who underwent curative surgery in 7 tertiary hospitals in China from January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2017. A total of 1 650 patients were enrolled, aged (M(IQR)) 62 (18)years (range: 14 to 100). There were 963 males and 687 females. The median follow-up period was 51 months. The Cox proportional hazardous regression model was utilized to select high-risk pathological factors, establish the nomogram and scoring system. The Bootstrap resampling method was utilized for internal validation of the model, the concordance index (C-index) was used to assess discrimination and calibration curves were presented to assess model calibration. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot survival curves after risk grouping, and Cox regression was used to compare disease-free survival between subgroups. Results: Age (HR=1.020, 95%CI: 1.008 to 1.033,P=0.001), T stage (T3:HR=1.995,95%CI:1.062 to 3.750,P=0.032;T4:HR=4.196, 95%CI: 2.188 to 8.045, P<0.01), N stage (N1: HR=1.834, 95%CI: 1.307 to 2.574, P<0.01; N2: HR=3.970, 95%CI: 2.724 to 5.787, P<0.01) and number of lymph nodes examined (≥36: HR=0.438, 95%CI: 0.242 to 0.790, P=0.006) were independently associated with disease-free survival. The C-index of the scoring model (model 1) based on age, T stage, N stage, and dichotomous variables of the lymph nodes examined (<12 and ≥12) was 0.723, and the C-index of the scoring model (model 2) based on age, T stage, N stage, and multi-categorical variables of the lymph nodes examined (<12, 12 to <24, 24 to <36, and ≥36) was 0.726. A scoring system was established based on age, T stage, N stage, and multi-categorical variables of lymph nodes examined, the 3-year DFS of the low-risk (≤1), middle-risk (2 to 4) and high-risk (≥5) group were 96.3%(n=711), 89.0%(n=626) and 71.4%(n=313), respectively. Statistically significant difference was observed among groups (P<0.01). Conclusions: The number of lymph nodes examined was an independent prognostic factor for disease-free survival after curative surgery in patients with stage Ⅰ to Ⅲ colon cancer. Incorporating the number of lymph nodes examined as a multi-categorical variable into the T and N staging system could improve prognostic predictive validity.