RESUMO
Objective To validate the predictive value of hepatitis B virus ( HBV )-related hepatocellular carcinoma ( HCC) risk score model D2AS in chronic HBV infection patients without antiviral therapy.Methods A total of 93 patients with chronic HBV infection were selected between January 2015 and July 2017 in the Third Affiliated Hospital of Hebei Medical University.Clinical data including age , gender, medical history, ultrasonography, hepatitis B surface antigen ( HBsAg), hepatitis B surface antibody ( anti-HBs), hepatitis B e antigen ( HBeAg), hepatitis B e antibody ( anti-HBe), hepatitis B core antibody ( anti-HBc), HBV DNA and alanine aminotransferase levels were collected by information center .REACH-B score and D2AS score were used to predict the risk of HCC.Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was used to evaluate the discrimination , and Hosmer-Lemeshow ( H-L) goodness-of-fit test was used to evaluate the calibration of the model.Results REACH-B score and D2 AS score for the 95 chronic HBV infection patients were 9 (8,12) and 0.95 (0.57,2.08), respectively.The area under the curve ( AUC) for REACH-B score and D2 AS score were 0.916 (95% confidence interval [ CI] 0.834-0.998) and 0.784 (95%CI 0.587-0.981), respectively.The difference was not statistically significant ( P ＝0.195).However, for HBeAg-negative patients with chronic HBV infection , the AUC for D2 AS score and REACH-B score were 0.952 (95%CI 0.876-1.000) and 0.913 (95%CI 0.821-1.000), respectively (P＝0.458).The H-L goodness-of-fit test was P＞0.05.Conclusions The D2 AS score can be used for HCC prediction among patients who do not meet antiviral criteria.The predictive value of the D 2AS score for HCC is comparable to the REACH-B score in HBeAg-negative patients with chronic HBV infection.
RESUMO
Objective@#To explore the risk factors for prognosis in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), and to establish a prognostic model.@*Methods@#A total of 193 patients diagnosed with HBV-ACLF who were admitted to the Department of Infectious Diseases of the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University were collected from 1st January 2013 to 1st November 2018 as a derivation cohort. Thirty-five patients diagnosed with HBV-ACLF who were admitted to the Fifth Hospital of Shijiazhuang during the period from 1st July 2017 to 1st November 2018 were collected as a validation cohort. The survival condition of all patients at week 12 of admission was observed. The risk factors associated with short-term prognosis were analyzed by using multivariate logistic regression analysis, and a logistic regression equation prediction model was established and verified. The diagnostic performance of the prognostic model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and was compared with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system, Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scoring system, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scoring system and chronic liver failure (CLIF)-SOFA scoring system.@*Results@#Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (odds ratio(OR)=2.133, 95% confidence interval(CI)1.033-4.405), total bilirubin (OR=3.371, 95%CI 1.610-7.060), serum creatinine (OR=4.448, 95%CI 1.697-11.661), hepatic encephalopathy (OR=5.313, 95%CI 2.463-11.461), and ascites (OR=2.959, 95%CI 1.410-6.210) were independent risk factors for predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF. The newly established logistic regression model (LRM)=-1.726+ 0.757×age+ 1.215×total bilirubin+ 1.049 2×serum creatinine+ 1.670×hepatic encephalopathy (with=1, without=0) + 1.085×ascites (with=1, without=0). The area under the ROC curve of the LRM for predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF was 0.82 (95%CI 0.76-0.88). Furthermore, the areas under the ROC curve of the models of MELD, CTP, SOFA, CLIF-SOFA were 0.67 (95%CI 0.60-0.75), 0.73 (95%CI 0.66-0.80), 0.77 (95%CI 0.70-0.83) and 0.72 (95%CI 0.65-0.80), respectively. The ROC-area under curve of the validation cohort was 0.81 (95%CI 0.65-0.97).@*Conclusions@#Age, total bilirubin, serum creatinine, hepatic encephalopathy, and ascites are independent risk factors for the prognosis of HBV-ACLF. The prognostic model established based on these factors can accurately predict the patients′ short-term prognosis, which is superior to MELD, CTP, SOFA and CLIF-SOFA.
RESUMO
Objective To explore the risk factors for prognosis in patients with hepatitis B virus (HBV)-related acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF),and to establish a prognostic model.Methods A total of 193 patients diagnosed with HBV-ACLF who were admitted to the Department of Infectious Diseases of the Third Hospital of Hebei Medical University were collected from 1st January 2013 to 1st November 2018 as a derivation cohort.Thirty-five patients diagnosed with HBV-ACLF who were admitted to the Fifth Hospital of Shijiazhuang during the period from 1st July 2017 to 1st November 2018 were collected as a validation cohort.The survival condition of all patients at week 12 of admission was observed.The risk factors associated with short-term prognosis were analyzed by using multivariate logistic regression analysis,and a logistic regression equation prediction model was established and verified.The diagnostic performance of the prognostic model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve,and was compared with model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scoring system,Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scoring system,sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) scoring system and chronic liver failure (CLIF)-SOFA scoring system.Results Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that age (odds ratio (OR) =2.133,95％ confidence interval (CI) 1.033-4.405),total bilirubin (OR =3.37 1,95％CI 1.610-7.060),serum creatinine (OR =4.448,95％C1 1.697-11.661),hepatic encephalopathy (OR =5.313,95％CI2.463-11.461),and ascites (OR =2.959,95％CI 1.410-6.210) were independent risk factors for predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF.The newly established logistic regression model (LRM) =-1.726 + 0.757 × age + 1.215 × total bilirubin + 1.049 2 × serum creatinine + 1.670 × hepatic encephalopathy (with =1,without =0) + 1.085 × ascites (with =1,without =0).The area under the ROC curve of the LRM for predicting the short-term prognosis of patients with HBV-ACLF was 0.82 (95％CI0.76-0.88).Furthermore,the areas under the ROC curve of the models of MELD,CTP,SOFA,CLIF-SOFA were 0.67 (95％CI 0.60-0.75),0.73 (95％CI 0.66-0.80),0.77 (95％CI 0.70-0.83) and 0.72 (95％CI 0.65-0.80),respectively.The ROC-area under curve of the validation cohort was 0.81 (95％CI0.65-0.97).Conclusions Age,total bilirubin,serum creatinine,hepatic encephalopathy,and ascites are independent risk factors for the prognosis of HBV-ACLF.The prognostic model established based on these factors can accurately predict the patients' short-term prognosis,which is superior to M ELD,CTP,SOFA and C LIF-SOFA.