Credibility Judgment Predictors for Child Sexual Abuse Reports in Forensic Psychiatric Evaluations

OBJECTIVE@#We intended to analyze the credibility judgment in written forensic psychiatric reports of child sexual abuse registered in Southern Taiwan.@*METHODS@#Ninety-six cases of child sexual abuse between August 2010 and October 2017 encountered in two hospitals were analyzed. The results in these reports were categorized into credible and non-credible. We identified the factors that distinguished between the two groups in bivariate analyses using chi-square test. A binary logistic regression analysis was performed to determine whether the factors that significantly correlated in the bivariate analyses were independent predictors of credible judgments.@*RESULTS@#Among 96 cases, 70 (73%) were judged as credible. Consistent testimonies of children (odds ratio=40.82) and multiple abuse events (odds ratio=6.05) were positive variables independently related to the sexual abuse allegations judged as credible.@*CONCLUSION@#The number of allegations judged as credible in this study was slightly higher than that reported in other studies. Our findings about predictors for credible cases are not in line with those reported previously. Due to the differences in resources of the cases and backgrounds of the evaluators among multiple studies, direct comparisons with previous studies must be treated with caution.

Decreased IL-1ra and NCAM-1/CD56 Serum Levels in Unmedicated Patients with Schizophrenia Before and After Antipsychotic Treatment

OBJECTIVE: Schizophrenia (SZ) has been associated with the inflammatory-related and immunological pathogenesis. This study investigates the aberration of cytokines in patients with SZ. METHODS: Thirty patients with SZ without antipsychotic treatment for at least two weeks participated. We measured the serum levels of fourteen cytokines at hospital admission and after 8-week antipsychotic treatment. Severity was measured by expanded version of 24-items brief psychiatric rating scale (BPRS-E). Repeated measure analyses of variance were conducted. RESULTS: The interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1ra) was significantly decreased after 8-week antipsychotic treatment than those of before antipsychotic treatment (F=12.15, df=1/30, p=0.002). Neural cell adhesion molecule 1/CD56 (NCAM-1/CD56) was significantly decreased (F=6.61, df=1/30, p=0.016) among those with second-generation antipsychotics but not first-generation antipsychotics treatment. The changes of BPRS-E-manic and BPRS-E-anxiety scores correlated with the baseline IL-1ra (r=-0.393), IL-6 (r=-0.407), and insulin like growth factor binding protein 3 (r=-0.446). Additionally, the changes of BPRS-E and BPRS-E-negative scores correlated with the changes of brain-derived neurotrophic factor (r=0.372) and interferon-gamma (r=0.375). CONCLUSION: Our study supports that IL-1ra and NCAM-1/CD56 may be considered as markers of developing SZ.

A case-control study on influencing factors of community-based hypertension control / 预防医学

Objective To understand the influencing factors of hypertension control,and to provide a theoretical basis for developing intervention measures.Methods A two-stage cluster random sampling method was performed and a total of 1 377 cases and 749 controls in Yuhang District were selected.Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used.Results The control rate of hypertension was 64. 77%.Hypertension control was related to BMI,course of disease and models of follow-up by univariate logistic regression analysis(P<0. 05 ).The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that older age (OR =0. 983,95%CI=0. 974 -0. 993 ),male (OR =1. 272,95%CI=1. 053 -1. 535 ), overweight (OR=0. 709,95%CI=0. 576-0. 872),obesity (OR=0. 297,95%CI=0. 210-0. 421)and model of group follow-up (OR=0. 495,95%CI=0. 375 -0. 654)were the major influencing factors.Conclusion The older age,male, overweigt,obesity and model of group follow-up were the major influencing factors.Comprehensive intervention measures should be strengthened so as to improve the control rate of hypertension in community.

Construction of early warning model of influenza-like illness in Zhejiang Province based on support vector machine / 浙江大学学报·医学版

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To construct a forecasting model of influenza-like illness in Zhejiang Province.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>The number of influenza-like cases and related pathogens among outpatients and emergency patients were obtained from 11 sentinel hospitals in Zhejiang Province during 2012 to 2013 (total 104 weeks), and corresponding meteorological factors were also collected. The epidemiological characteristics of influenza during the period were then analyzed. Linear correlation and rank correlation analyses were conducted to explore the association between influenza-like illness and related factors. Optimal parameters were selected by cross validation. Support vector machine was used to construct the forecasting model of influenza-like illness in Zhejiang Province and verified by the historical data.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>Correlation analysis indicated that 8 factors were associated with influenza-like illness occurred in one week. The results of cross validation showed that the optimal parameters were C=3, ε=0.009 and γ=0.4. The results of influenza-like illness forecasting model after verification revealed that support vector machine had the accuracy of 50.0% for prediction with the same level, while it reached 96.7% for prediction within the range of one level higher or lower.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Support vector machine is suitable for early warning of influenza-like illness.</p>