RESUMO
We characterized clinical manifestations and the risk to develop AIDS in a cohort of 32 patients infected with human immunodeficiency virus without AIDS. A multivariate analysis was performed to determine association between the progression of infection and control variables (socioeconomic level, age, sex and sexual preferences) and causal variables (psychosocial changes, significant clinical events, stress scoring and sexual activity). The cumulative AIDS incidence, defined as CD4 lymphocyte count below 200 cells/cmü was 50 percent at 6.5 years and 82 percent at 8 years. Using clinical criteria to define AIDS, 50 percent developed tha disease at 8 years of follow up. Among studied factors, only age (faster progression at higher age) and time of evolution were associated with progression. In stages before AIDS, the most frequent diseases were acute diarrhea, sexual transmission diseases, oral candidiasis, sinusitis and varicella zoster infections. The reduction of CD4 lymphocytes below 200 cells/cmü always preceded the symptoms of the disease. Two patients have remained more than eight years without clinical or immunological deterioration