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Objective To explore the spatio-temporal epidemic trends and related driving effects of meteorological factors on brucellosis in Datong city,Shanxi province,from 2005 to 2015.Methods We collected the surveillance data on brucellosis and related meteorological data in Datong city from 2005 to 2015,to describe the epidemic characteristics of the disease.Quasi-Poisson distribution lag non-liner model (DLNM) was built to explore the driving effect of monthly meteorological data on the disease.Results From 2005 to 2015,Datong city reported a total of 17 311 cases of brucellosis including one death,with the annual average incidence as 47.43 per 100 000 persons.A rising trend was seen during the study period.The monthly incidence of Brucellosis presented an obvious curve with a major peak from March to June,accounted for 48.40％ of the total cases.The high incidence areas in the city gradually expanded from the northeast and southeast to the western areas.Results fiom the DLNM studies suggested that seasonality of brucellosis in Datong was significantly affected by metrological factors such as evaporation,rainfall and temperature.The peak of delayed effect appeared the highest when the monthly cumulative evaporation capacity was 140-260 mm and the monthly cumulative rainfall was 20-60 mm with lag less than 1 month or the monthly temperature was-13 ℃ with lag of 4-5 months.Conclusions The incidence of human brucellosis in Datong city increased significantly from 2005 to 2015.Meteorological factors such as evaporation,rainfall,temperature all showed significant driving effects on the disease.
RESUMO
Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Wei River Basin from 2005 to 2015,and analyze the environmental factors that cause the differences of spatial distribution.Methods HFRS reported cases in Wei River Basin from 2005 to 2015 were collected form "National Disease Reporting Information System",and the epidemiological features of HFRS were analyzed.Boosted regression trees (BRT) model was applied to evaluate the environment factors on the geographical distribution of HFRS in Wei River basin at 5 km × 5 krn gird scale.Results The number of HFRS cases was 18 629,and the average annual incidence from 2005-2015 in Wei River basin was 7.24/100 000.The highest morbidity was 15.18/100 000 in 2012.The middle and lower reaches of Wei River basin had high incidence of HFRS,such as Xi'an,Weinan city.Patients' age was mainly between 16 to 60,and the largest morbidity occured in people over 60 years old.Boosted regression trees modle identified building land,farmland coverage percentage and altitude had higher contribution to the distribution of HFRS.Conclusions The epidemiological characteristics of HFRS changed significantly.Patients older than 60 years old were having the highest incidence rates.Environmental factors such as buildup land,farmland and altitude played important roles in the geographical distribution of HFRS in the Wei River basin.
RESUMO
Objective To study the spatial-temporal dynamical features of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Shaanxi Province,so as to provide evidence for the development of relative prevention and control programs on HFMD.Methods Surveillance data of HFMD was collected from the China Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention from 2009 to 2013.Related data on population and gross domestic product (GDP) was obtained from Shaanxi Statistical Yearbook.Statistical tools as R3.4.1,ArcGIS 10.2 and SaTScan 9.2 software were used to describe the spatialtemporal distribution of the disease.Power-law method on spatial-temporal-multicomponent model was used to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution of the HFMD epidemics in Shaanxi Province.Results A total of 229 904 cases of HFMD were reported in Shaanxi Province from 2009 to 2013,with an average annual incidence as 122.50 per 100 000.Obvious seasonal characteristics were noticed,with 71.71％ of the total cases identified between April and July.Counties with high incidence were mainly distributed in the mid-and east parts of Guanzhong area.Through temporal and spatial scan statistics,we identified that Class Ⅰ clustering area was fixed to the central and southeast regions of Shaanxi province which were around Xi'an City between 2009 and 2013,with the relative risk (RR)as 2.24,ranging from 2.18 to 3.08.Results from Power-law analysis showed that the continuous follow-up impact from the previous HFMD epidemics appeared strong in Tongguan,Pucheng districts of Weinan City and Weiyang district of Xi'an,with autoregressive components as 1.14,0.97 and 0.89,respectively.The risk of HFMD seemed high in Huayin city,Changan and Yanta districts and with the endemic components as 5.08,4.12 and 4.08,respectively.Impact of the epidemics on nearby districts was largely seen in Lianhu district of Xi'an,Wugong district of Xianyang and Gaoling district of Xi'an with epidemic components as 2.12,2.08 and 1.77,respectively.The etiological constituents of HFMD were mainly Enterovirus 71 between 2009 and 2012,while HFMD was mainly caused by other entero-viruses,in 2013.Conclusion Significant spatial-temporal heterogeneity of HFMD was seen in Shaanxi province,which called for specific strategies to be developed in the highly endemic areas.
RESUMO
Objective To explore the spatio-temporal epidemic trends and related driving effects of meteorological factors on brucellosis in Datong city,Shanxi province,from 2005 to 2015.Methods We collected the surveillance data on brucellosis and related meteorological data in Datong city from 2005 to 2015,to describe the epidemic characteristics of the disease.Quasi-Poisson distribution lag non-liner model (DLNM) was built to explore the driving effect of monthly meteorological data on the disease.Results From 2005 to 2015,Datong city reported a total of 17 311 cases of brucellosis including one death,with the annual average incidence as 47.43 per 100 000 persons.A rising trend was seen during the study period.The monthly incidence of Brucellosis presented an obvious curve with a major peak from March to June,accounted for 48.40％ of the total cases.The high incidence areas in the city gradually expanded from the northeast and southeast to the western areas.Results fiom the DLNM studies suggested that seasonality of brucellosis in Datong was significantly affected by metrological factors such as evaporation,rainfall and temperature.The peak of delayed effect appeared the highest when the monthly cumulative evaporation capacity was 140-260 mm and the monthly cumulative rainfall was 20-60 mm with lag less than 1 month or the monthly temperature was-13 ℃ with lag of 4-5 months.Conclusions The incidence of human brucellosis in Datong city increased significantly from 2005 to 2015.Meteorological factors such as evaporation,rainfall,temperature all showed significant driving effects on the disease.
RESUMO
Objective To understand the epidemiological characteristics of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Wei River Basin from 2005 to 2015,and analyze the environmental factors that cause the differences of spatial distribution.Methods HFRS reported cases in Wei River Basin from 2005 to 2015 were collected form "National Disease Reporting Information System",and the epidemiological features of HFRS were analyzed.Boosted regression trees (BRT) model was applied to evaluate the environment factors on the geographical distribution of HFRS in Wei River basin at 5 km × 5 krn gird scale.Results The number of HFRS cases was 18 629,and the average annual incidence from 2005-2015 in Wei River basin was 7.24/100 000.The highest morbidity was 15.18/100 000 in 2012.The middle and lower reaches of Wei River basin had high incidence of HFRS,such as Xi'an,Weinan city.Patients' age was mainly between 16 to 60,and the largest morbidity occured in people over 60 years old.Boosted regression trees modle identified building land,farmland coverage percentage and altitude had higher contribution to the distribution of HFRS.Conclusions The epidemiological characteristics of HFRS changed significantly.Patients older than 60 years old were having the highest incidence rates.Environmental factors such as buildup land,farmland and altitude played important roles in the geographical distribution of HFRS in the Wei River basin.
RESUMO
Objective To study the spatial-temporal dynamical features of hand-foot-mouth disease (HFMD) in Shaanxi Province,so as to provide evidence for the development of relative prevention and control programs on HFMD.Methods Surveillance data of HFMD was collected from the China Information System for Diseases Control and Prevention from 2009 to 2013.Related data on population and gross domestic product (GDP) was obtained from Shaanxi Statistical Yearbook.Statistical tools as R3.4.1,ArcGIS 10.2 and SaTScan 9.2 software were used to describe the spatialtemporal distribution of the disease.Power-law method on spatial-temporal-multicomponent model was used to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution of the HFMD epidemics in Shaanxi Province.Results A total of 229 904 cases of HFMD were reported in Shaanxi Province from 2009 to 2013,with an average annual incidence as 122.50 per 100 000.Obvious seasonal characteristics were noticed,with 71.71％ of the total cases identified between April and July.Counties with high incidence were mainly distributed in the mid-and east parts of Guanzhong area.Through temporal and spatial scan statistics,we identified that Class Ⅰ clustering area was fixed to the central and southeast regions of Shaanxi province which were around Xi'an City between 2009 and 2013,with the relative risk (RR)as 2.24,ranging from 2.18 to 3.08.Results from Power-law analysis showed that the continuous follow-up impact from the previous HFMD epidemics appeared strong in Tongguan,Pucheng districts of Weinan City and Weiyang district of Xi'an,with autoregressive components as 1.14,0.97 and 0.89,respectively.The risk of HFMD seemed high in Huayin city,Changan and Yanta districts and with the endemic components as 5.08,4.12 and 4.08,respectively.Impact of the epidemics on nearby districts was largely seen in Lianhu district of Xi'an,Wugong district of Xianyang and Gaoling district of Xi'an with epidemic components as 2.12,2.08 and 1.77,respectively.The etiological constituents of HFMD were mainly Enterovirus 71 between 2009 and 2012,while HFMD was mainly caused by other entero-viruses,in 2013.Conclusion Significant spatial-temporal heterogeneity of HFMD was seen in Shaanxi province,which called for specific strategies to be developed in the highly endemic areas.