Construction and verification of a new nomogram for predicting stone recurrence after endoscopic minimally invasive gallbladder-preserving cholecystolithotomy at high altitude / 临床肝胆病杂志

ObjectiveTo investigate related factors for stone recurrence after endoscopic minimally invasive gallbladder-preserving cholecystolithotomy, and to establish a nomogram model for predicting the risk of stone recurrence after surgery based on independent risk factors. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 144 patients with gallstones who underwent endoscopic minimally invasive gallbladder-preserving cholecystolithotomy in Qinghai University Affiliated Hospital from January 2012 to January 2018, and according to postoperative stone recurrence, the patients were divided into non-recurrence group and recurrence group. The chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups. LASSO and logistic regression analyses were used to analyze independent risk factors for postoperative stone recurrence, and the corresponding nomogram prediction model was plotted according to regression coefficient. The calibration curve was plotted to evaluate the reliability of the predictive nomogram; Harrell consistency index was used to quantify the discriminatory performance of the predictive nomogram; the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the sensitivity, specificity, and area under the ROC curve (AUC) of this predictive nomogram. ResultsAll 144 patients underwent successful endoscopic minimally invasive gallbladder-preserving cholecystolithotomy, among whom 14 patients (9.7%) experienced stone recurrence after surgery. The multivariate analysis showed that family history (odds ratio ［OR］= 3.245, 95% confidence interval ［CI］: 0.752-13567, P=0.104), regular diet (OR=3.752, 95% CI: 1.067-14.141, P=0.041), stone homogeneity (OR=5.871, 95% CI: 1636-25.390, P=0.010), and medication compliance (OR=0.225, 95% CI: 0.057-0.799, P=0.024) were independent risk factors for recurrence. The nomogram model had an index of concordance (C-index) of 0.835 (95% CI: 0.732-0.938) in the modeling sample and 0.7925 in the verification sample, suggesting that the nomogram model in this study had good accuracy and discrimination. The predictive nomogram had an AUC of 0.835, suggesting that this nomogram had a relatively high predictive value. ConclusionFamily history, regular diet, stone homogeneity, and medication compliance are independent risk factors for stone recurrence after endoscopic minimally invasive gallbladder-preserving cholecystolithotomy, and the nomogram constructed based on these independent risk factors may help to predict the risk of postoperative stone recurrence.

Correlation between systemic immune-inflammation index and prognosis in patients with hepatic alveolar echinococcosis / 临床肝胆病杂志

ObjectiveTo investigate the correlation between systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) and prognosis in patients with hepatic alveolar echinococcosis. MethodsA retrospective analysis was performed for the clinical data of 242 patients who were admitted to Department of Hepatopancreatobiliary Surgery, Qinghai University Affiliated Hospital, from January 2015 to December 2018 and underwent surgery for hepatic alveolar echinococcosis, and SII was calculated. The chi-square test was used for comparison of categorical data between two groups, and a Spearman correlation analysis was performed. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to determine the optimal cut-off value of SII; the Kaplan-Meier method was used to plot survival curves and analyze overall survival time in the two groups, and the log-rank test was used for comparison of survival rates between the two groups; univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to identify the influencing factors for the prognosis of patients with hepatic alveolar echinococcosis. ResultsThe Spearman correlation analysis showed that SII was positively correlated with the postoperative fatality rate of patients with hepatic alveolar echinococcosis (r=0.267, P＜0.001). The ROC curve showed that the optimal cut-off value of SII before surgery was 758.92, and based on this, 242 patients with hepatic alveolar echinococcosis were divided into low SII (SII ≤758.92) group with 126 patients and high SII (SII ＞758.92) group with 116 patients. The low SII group had 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates of 98.20%, 88.47%, and 6610%, respectively, and the high SII group had 1-, 3-, and 5-year survival rates of 90.80%, 53.05%, and 27.40%, respectively. The low SII group had a cumulative survival rate of ＞50% and a mean survival time of 55.584 months (95% confidence interval［CI］: 53550-57.617), while the high SII group had a cumulative survival rate of ＜50%, a mean survival time of 39.384 months (95% CI: 35.070-43.698), and a median survival time of 43 months (95% CI: 34.694-51.306). The low SII group had a significantly better survival rate than the high SII group, and there was a significant difference in overall survival rate between the two groups (χ2=46.979, P＜005). The univariate analysis showed that SII ＞758.92 (hazard ratio ［HR］=5.907, 95% CI: 3.386-10.306, P=0.001) was an influencing factor for the overall survival time of patients with hepatic alveolar echinococcosis, and the multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that preoperative peripheral blood SII (HR=3.507, 95% CI: 1.911-6.435, P=0.001) was an independent risk factor for the overall survival rate of patients with hepatic alveolar echinococcosis. ConclusionPreoperative SII level is clearly correlated with the prognosis of patients with hepatic alveolar echinococcosis and can thus be used as a clinical indicator to evaluate the prognosis of patients. The higher the peripheral blood SII before surgery, the worse the prognosis of patients.