Advance on theoretical epidemiology models research of prevention and control of COVID-19 / 中华预防医学杂志

COVID-19 has brought a significant impact to the global health system, and also opportunities and challenges to epidemiological researches. Theoretical epidemiological models can simulate the process of epidemic in scenarios under different conditions. Therefore, modeling researches can analyze the epidemical trend of COVID-19, predict epidemical risks, and evaluate effects of different control measures and vaccine policies. Theoretical epidemiological modeling researches provide scientific advice for the prevention and control of infectious diseases, and play a crucial role in containing COVID-19 over the past year. In this study, we review the theoretical epidemiological modeling researches on COVID-19 and summarize the role of theoretical epidemiological models in the prevention and control of COVID-19, in order to provide reference for the combination of mathematical modeling and epidemic control.

Prediction modeling with data fusion and prevention strategy analysis for the COVID-19 outbreak / 中华流行病学杂志

Since December 2019, the outbreak of COVID-19 in Wuhan has spread rapidly due to population movement during the Spring Festival holidays. Since January 23rd, 2020, the strategies of containment and contact tracing followed by quarantine and isolation has been implemented extensively in mainland China, and the rates of detection and confirmation have been continuously increased, which have effectively suppressed the rapid spread of the epidemic. In the early stage of the outbreak of COVID-19, it is of great practical significance to analyze the transmission risk of the epidemic and evaluate the effectiveness and timeliness of prevention and control strategies by using mathematical models and combining with a small amount of real-time updated multi-source data. On the basis of our previous research, we systematically introduce how to establish the transmission dynamic models in line with current Chinese prevention and control strategies step by step, according to the different epidemic stages and the improvement of the data. By summarized our modelling and assessing ideas, the model formulations vary from autonomous to non-autonomous dynamic systems, the risk assessment index changes from the basic regeneration number to the effective regeneration number, and the epidemic development and assessment evolve from the early SEIHR transmission model-based dynamics to the recent dynamics which are mainly associated with the variation of the isolated and suspected population sizes.

Prevalence status for smokers of undergraduates in Huaihua and the influential factors / 中南大学学报(医学版)

OBJECTIVE@#To investigate the prevalence status and the influential factors for smokers of undergraduates in Huaihua.@*METHODS@#The undergraduates from different grades and different professions in Huaihua were selected randomly and investigated using a self-developed questionnaire. The influential factors for smokers of students were analyzed using a Chi-square test and a logistic regression.@*RESULTS@#A total of 1 050 undergraduates were surveyed in our study. Among them, 973 were valid. The rate for students with a habit of smoking was 21.17%. 53.7% of smokers began to smoke at the stage of primary and high schools. The main reason for smoking was due to curious (47.1%) or depressive (45.2%). The male students were more likely to smoke than female students (OR=6.730). The attitudes of parents on smoking, such as no intervention, were important risk factors that affect the children's behavior on smoking (OR=1.866).@*CONCLUSION@#The periods in primary and high school are the most possible time for student to begin smoking. The curiosity and depression are the most risk factors, and the gender and family education are also the important factors that affect the behavior of undergraduates on smoking.