Trend and prediction on the incidence of pancreatic cancer in China / 中华流行病学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To analyze and predict the incidence trends and burden of pancreatic cancer from 2008 to 2015.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Registration data on pancreatic cancer of cancer registration in 1998 - 2007, were retrieved and utilized for analyzing the annual incidence of pancreatic cancer. Age-standardized rate by Chinese population (ASR) was calculated, using the direct method. JoinPoint software was applied for trend analysis. Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling Prediction Package was used to estimate age, period and cohort effects as well as to predict the incidence rates.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>From 1998 to 2007, the annual incidence for men and women in urban areas showed an increase of 1.86% and 2.1% per year, but the increasing trend on the age-standardized rate was not obvious in both men and women. However, the incidence rates for men and women in rural areas increased by 7.54% and 7.83% and the age-standardized rates increased by 4.82% and 5.48% per year.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>from the projection model showed that the trends were mainly caused by age, period and cohort effects. Based on the analysis, up to 2015, the annual new cases of pancreatic cancer would be 103 428 (60 500 for males and 42 928 for females), with 15 277 cases more than that of 2008.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>There appeared an increasing trend of pancreatic cancer incidence which was more significant in the rural areas than the slowly increasing trend in the urban areas. The increasing trend of pancreatic cancer would be slow until the year 2015. However, in the short term pancreatic cancer is still a major cancer.</p>

Time trend analysis and prediction of liver cancer mortality of residents in Henan Province, 1984-2009 / 肿瘤

Objective: To investigate the trend in mortality of liver cancer between 1984 and 2009, and to predict the mortality trend of liver cancer in the next ten years (2010-2019) in residents in Henan Province. Methods: The complete data of liver cancer deaths and the population data in the corresponding period (1984-2009) in Henan Province were drawn from Henan Provincial Center for Tumor and Health Statistics Database. The period-specific mortality rates and the age-adjusted mortality rates directly standardized to China's population and the world population were calculated. The time trend of mortality was estimated by Joinpoint model. The mortality rates of liver cancer in the next ten years (2010-2019) in Henan Province were predicted by using linear regression model. Results: A total of 53 432 cases dying with liver cancer was reported by vital statistics registry center in Henan Province between 1984 and 2009. For men, the age-standardized mortality (China's population) was 18.54/100 000 between 1984 and 1988 and it was increased to 26.85/100 000 between 2004 and 2009; for women, the agestandardized mortality (China's population) was increased from 8.14/100 000 to 12.96/100 000. The trend parameters estimated by Joinpoint model demonstrated that the age-standardized mortality (China's population) of liver cancer showed an increasing trend in male and female. Predictive model demonstrated that the age-standardized mortality rates (China's population) in male and female during the period of 2010-2014 were 27.90/100 000 and 13.13/100 000, respectively; during the period of 2015-2019, the age-standardized mortality rates (China's population) in male and female were 28.50/100 000 and 13.00/100 000, respectively. Conclusion: The mortality rate of liver cancer in Henan Province was in an increasing trend, 1984-2009. This upward trend will slow down in the next ten years (2010-2019). Copyright © 2012 by TUMOR.