RESUMO
Objective To establish the early warning model based on the control chart method for hand,foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in Wuchang District and to determine the optimum alarming threshold to provide the data support for HFMD monitoring work.Methods The data of HFMD in Wuchang District during 2009-2014 were collected from the National Infectious Diseases Notification System for constructing the data base.The mobile percentile method was adopted to establish the early alarming model,which was evaluated by the screening test.The sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value and negative predictive value were calculated.Then the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn and the optimum alarming threshold was found out.Results The early alarming threshold of HFMD in Wuchang District was P90,its sensitivity,specificity,positive predictive value and negative predictive value were 75.00％,93.88％,50.00％ and 97.87％,respectively.Conclusion Determining the early warning threshold should be optimized according to onset characteristics combining with the local epidemic situation,which pays attention to regional specificity and increases the monitoring ability of infectious diseases.