Comparison of ARIMAX and multivariate LSTM model in predicting daily death toll in Yancheng City / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To compare the effects of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model-X (ARIMAX) and multivariate Long Short Term Memory Network (multivariate LSTM) in the prediction of daily total death toll in Yancheng City. Methods Based on total death toll data, meteorological data and air quality data from January 1st, 2014 to June 30th,2017 in Yancheng City, Jiangsu province, ARIMAX model and multivariate LSTM model were established to predict the daily total death toll from July 1st,2017 to July 14th,2017. RMSE, MAE and MAPE were used as evaluation indexes to compare the prediction effects of these two models. Results RMSE, MAE and MAPE of ARIMAX model and multivariate LSTM model were 20.742、15.094、9.921 and 47.182、35.863、19.633, respectively. Conclusion ARIMAX model is better than multivariate LSTM model to predict the daily death toll in Yancheng city.

Efficiency analysis of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization combined with CT-guided percutaneous acetic acid injection for huge hepatocellular carcinoma / 中国介入影像与治疗学

Objective To explore the clinical application value of transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE) combined with CT-guided percutaneous acetic acid injection (PAI) in treatment of huge hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods Forty-three patients with huge HCC were randomly divided into two group. Twenty-one patients in group A underwent routine one course for TACE (three times), and the interval of TACEs was one month. Twenty-two patients in group B underwent TACE combined with PAI, and CT-guided PAI was performed once a week since 2-3 weeks after first TACE, and one course included 6-9 times of PAI. Postoperative follow-up was conducted (including AFP, the size of tumor, etc.). One course of treatment was repeated in case of tumor recurred. Results At the 1st month after treatment, no statistical difference was found of AFP positive rate between two groups. Statistical difference of total effective rate was found between two groups (38.10% vs 77.27%). The 1-, 2- and 3-year survival rate In group A was 47.62%, 23.81% and 9.52%, respectively, while in group B was 81.82%, 54.55% and 36.36%, respectively, and significant differences were found between the two groups for the same period. Conclusion TACE combined with PAI is safe and more effective than TACE alone in the treatment of huge HCC.