RESUMO
Objective To explore the effect of the autoregressive integrated moving average model?nonlinear auto?regressive neural network(ARIMA?NARNN)model on predicting schistosomiasis infection rates of population. Methods The ARIMA model,NARNN model and ARIMA?NARNN model were established based on monthly schistosomiasis infection rates from Janu?ary 2005 to February 2015 in Jiangsu Province,China. The fitting and prediction performances of the three models were com?pared. Results Compared to the ARIMA model and NARNN model,the mean square error(MSE),mean absolute error (MAE)and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)of the ARIMA?NARNN model were the least with the values of 0.011 1, 0.090 0 and 0.282 4,respectively. Conclusion The ARIMA?NARNN model could effectively fit and predict schistosomiasis in?fection rates of population,which might have a great application value for the prevention and control of schistosomiasis.
RESUMO
Objective To apply short message service (SMS) for pulmonary rehabilitation in residence. Methods A total of 102 old pa-tients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in stable situation were equally divided into three groups randomly. They all ac-cepted a two-week lesson of exercise project, and then took in the project for 22 weeks. Meanwhile, group A phoned to their experts once a week, group B was phoned by their experts once a week, and group C accepted SMS once a day and sent back to the experts. They were in-vestigated with Exercise Self Regulatory Efficacy Scale (Ex-SERS), modified British Medical Research Council Scale (mMRC) and COPD Assessment Test (CAT) before and after intervention. Results The score of Ex-SERS was the most in group C (F=179.53, P<0.001), with the interaction of time (F=387.09, P<0.001). While the scores of mMRC (F=8.754, P<0.001) and CAT (F=11.32, P<0.001) were the least in group C. Conclusion Application of SMS in the integrated management for pulmonary rehabilitation in residence may improve the self regu-latory efficacy of exercise, release the dyspnea and the influence on living in patients with COPD.
RESUMO
Objective To explore the effect of self efficacy combined with mobile health information service applied in pulmonary rehabilitation in residence in elderly patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Methods Sixty-eight elderly patients in stable situation were divided into the control group and the intervention group with 34 cases in each group accoridng to the random digit table. In the control group, the nursing intervention included health education and telephone follow-up. The intervention group adopted self efficacy theory combined with mobile health information service. The items such as persistence in pulmonary rehabilitation, Exercise Self-Regulatory Efficacy Scale (Ex-SRES) and health condition were assessed. Results After intervention for 12 weeks, the scores of persistence in pulmonary rehabilitation in residence in the intervention group scored 5.35 ±1.42, which was higher than that in the control group (2.03±1.40), the difference was significant (t=160.43, P0.05). The improvement of CAT was significant at the end of the twenty-forth week (21.90±4.67) in the intervention group (t=-12.09, P<0.01). Conclusions Self efficacy theory and the application of mobile health information services can help patients persist in long-term rehabilitation exercise training.