Analysis of constipation status and influencing factors in patients with lung cancer during postoperative hospitalization / 中国胸心血管外科临床杂志

@#Objective     To investigate the current status of constipation during postoperative hospitalization and the factors associated with moderate to severe constipation at discharge in lung cancer patients. Methods     Lung cancer patients who underwent surgery in 6 tertiary hospitals in Sichuan Province from November 2017 to January 2020 were enrolled. The MD Anderson Symptom Scale-Lung Cancer Module was used to collect postoperative constipation scores. Unconditional logistic stepwise regression was used to analyze the related influencing factors for moderate to severe constipation on the day of discharge. Results     Finally 337 patients were collected. There were 171 males and 166 females, with an average age of 55.0±10.3 years. Constipation scores of lung cancer patients increased from postoperative day 1 to day 3, and showed a decreasing trend from day 3 to day 7. Moderate to severe constipation was present in 68 (20.2%) patients at discharge. The postoperative hospital stay (OR=0.743, P<0.001) and the dose of morphine used during postoperative hospitalization (OR=1.002, P=0.015) were influencing factors for moderate to severe constipation at discharge in lung cancer patients. Conclusion    Lung cancer patients have the most severe constipation on postoperative day 3. Moderate to severe constipation at discharge is associated with the postoperative hospital stay and the dose of morphine used during postoperative hospitalization.

Assessment of risk factors for bronchopulmonary dysplasia with pulmonary hypertension and construction of a prediction nomogram model / 中华儿科杂志

Objective: To explore the risk factors of pulmonary hypertension (PH) in premature infants with bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD), and to establish a prediction model for early PH. Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study. Data of 777 BPD preterm infants with the gestational age of <32 weeks were collected from 7 collaborative units of the Su Xinyun Neonatal Perinatal Collaboration Network platform in Jiangsu Province from January 2019 to December 2022. The subjects were randomly divided into a training cohort and a validation cohort at a ratio of 8∶2 by computer, and non-parametric test or χ2 test was used to examine the differences between the two retrospective cohorts. Univariate Logistic regression and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used in the training cohort to screen the risk factors affecting the PH associated with BPD. A nomogram model was constructed based on the severity of BPD and its risk factors,which was internally validated by the Bootstrap method. Finally, the differential, calibration and clinical applicability of the prediction model were evaluated using the training and verification queues. Results: A total of 130 among the 777 preterm infants with BPD had PH, with an incidence of 16.7%, and the gestational age was 28.7 (27.7, 30.0) weeks, including 454 males (58.4%) and 323 females (41.6%). There were 622 preterm infants in the training cohort, including 105 preterm infants in the PH group. A total of 155 patients were enrolled in the verification cohort, including 25 patients in the PH group. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis revealed that low 5 min Apgar score (OR=0.87, 95%CI 0.76-0.99), cesarean section (OR=1.97, 95%CI 1.13-3.43), small for gestational age (OR=9.30, 95%CI 4.30-20.13), hemodynamically significant patent ductus arteriosus (hsPDA) (OR=4.49, 95%CI 2.58-7.80), late-onset sepsis (LOS) (OR=3.52, 95%CI 1.94-6.38), and ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP) (OR=8.67, 95%CI 3.98-18.91) were all independent risk factors for PH (all P<0.05). The independent risk factors and the severity of BPD were combined to construct a nomogram map model. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve of the nomogram model in the training cohort and the validation cohort were 0.83 (95%CI 0.79-0.88) and 0.87 (95%CI 0.79-0.95), respectively, and the calibration curve was close to the ideal diagonal. Conclusions: Risk of PH with BPD increases in preterm infants with low 5 minute Apgar score, cesarean section, small for gestational age, hamodynamically significant patent ductus arteriosus, late-onset sepsis, and ventilator-associated pneumonia. This nomogram model serves as a useful tool for predicting the risk of PH with BPD in premature infants, which may facilitate individualized early intervention.

Trends in outcomes after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: An observational study in Jiading District Shanghai / 中华急诊医学杂志

Objective:This study aimed to investigate temporal trends in Event survival after OHCA from 2015 to 2019 in Jiading district Shanghai. And analysis the influencing factors.Methods:This was a population based observational cohort study evaluating the temporal trends in survival after OHCA, we included consecutive patients who experienced an OHCA between January 1,2015 and December 31, 2019, we included all adult patients aged ≥ 18 years who presumed medical cause and were treated by emergency medical services (EMS) in Jiading District. The Data was obtained from Dispatch software system, The emergency case registration system, paper-based treatment records, dispatcher's telephone recording and in-hospital records, This Data organized according to the Utstein template using standard data element definitions. Temporal changes were measured by chi-square trend test. we constructed a multilevel logistic regression model to identify factors independently associated with event survival arrival at hospital and survival to hospital discharge.Results:A total of 1305 patients with OHCA met study inclusion criteria during the study period. Survival to hospital admission was 4.14% increased from 1.87% in 2015 to 7.31% in 2019 for trend ( P=0.009), survival to hospital discharge was 1.23%, increased from 0.37% in 2015 to 3.32% in 2019 ( P=0.003). But there was no evidence of a temporal change in survival to hospital discharge with good neurologic function (0.37 in 2015 to1.33% in 2019, P=0.339 for trend). In the subgroup, the rate of Recognition was increased from 7.49% in 2015 to 19.27% in 2019 ( P< 0.01). The proportion of cases receiving bystander CPR was 17.39%, which increased from 9.36% in 2015 to 25.19% in 2019 ( P= 0.000). The proportion of shockable rhythm was 4.06%, there was no evidence of a temporal change in the proportion of the overall rhythm (3.00%-4.65%, P=0.323 for trend), There were no cases of bystanders using automated external defibrillators (AEDs) in patients with cardiac arrest, The EMS response time (min) were15.45±8.71, which decreased from 15.10±8.12 in 2015 to 13.41±6.47 in 2019 ( P< 0.0001). Multiple regression analysis showed that Male ( OR= 0.315, 95% CI: 0.168-0.519, P =0.000), Not Shockable rhythm ( OR= 0.096, 95% CI: 0.043-0.012, P=0.000), and public location ( OR=2.411, 95% CI: 1.302-4.463, P=0.005) were independent predictor of Factors Associated with survival at hospital admission. Male ( OR= 0.247, 95% CI: 0.070-0.866, P=0.029), Not Shockable rhythm ( OR= 0.072, 95% CI: 0.016-0.318, P=0.001), and No Epinephrine administration ( OR=5.953, 95% CI:1.222-29.012, P=0.005) were independent predictor of Factors Associated with Survival to Hospital Discharge. Conclusions:Survival after OHCA has improved over time. Several targeted initiatives established along the chain of survival of OHCA during the past 5-years may help explain the improvement in survival outcome observed in Jiading District, including improved the rate of Recognition, improved participation rates in bystander CPR and a reduction in EMS response time.In the future, more resources should be improving the quality of CPR training and expanding AEDs coverage and encouraging the public to have the courage to use them.

Apoptosis-inducing activity of synthetic hydrocarbon-stapled peptides in H358 cancer cells expressing KRAS

Lung cancers are the leading cause of cancer deaths worldwide and pose a grave threat to human life and health. Non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) is the most frequent malignancy occupying 80% of all lung cancer subtypes. Except for other mutations (

Relation among Ultrasound Findings，Clinical Significance and Expression of FosB in Invasive Breast Cancer / 中山大学学报(医学科学版)

@#【Objective】To investigate the expression of FosB in invasive breast cancer and its correlation to the ultrasound findings and clinical significance.【Methods】Immunohistochemical and ultrasound examination were performed for 155 cases with invasive breast cancer，36 cases with paracancerous tissue and 30 cases with normal breast tissue. To investigate the correlations between the different expression of FosB with histological grade ，lymph nodes，and ultrasound findings.【Results】①The expression of FosB in paracancerous tissue and normal breast tissue was higher than that in invasive breast cancer（P＜0.01）. ②Based on immunohistochemical staining，high positive expression rate of FosB was associated with low histological grade，ER positive and PR positive（P＜0.05）. There was no correlation between FosB and age，tumor diameter，lymph nodes，Her2 and clinical stages（P＞0.05）③The expression of FosB was higher in microcalcification positive and lymph nodes bigger tissues（P＜0.05）. There was no correlation between FosB and tumor size， regular shape，boundary，posterior attenuation ratio and blood flow（P＞0.05）.【Conclusion】The expression of FosB in invasive breast cancer was lower than that in paracancerous tissue and normal breast tissue. The different expression of FosB was correlated with histological grade，ER positive and PR positive. To study the expression of FosB in invasive breast cancer may be helpful for differential diagnosis and targeted treatment. The different expression of FosB was correlated with microcalcification，lymph nodes，and combined FosB with ultrasound findings may contribute to prognostic evaluation of breast cancer.

Expressions of FOSB and P16 and their correlation in different molecular subtypes of breast invasive ductal cancer / 上海交通大学学报（医学版）

Objective: To detect the expressions of proto-oncogene protein FOSB and cyclin protein P16 in the different molecular subtypes of breast invasive ductal cancer and their correlation. Methods: The tumor tissues of 138 patients diagnosed with breast invasive ductal cancer by postoperative pathological examinations in Zhongshan Bo'ai Hospital from August 2013 to March 2019 were collected with normal breast tissues as control. Immunohistochemical staining was performed for the expressions of FOSB and P16 to investigate their correlation in the breast cancer. Besides, their expressions and their correlations in the different molecular subtypes of breast cancers, i.e. Luminal A, Luminal B [According to the expression of human epidermal growth factor 2 (HER2), it can be divided into HER2- and HER2+.], HER2 positive subtype, and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC), were also detected. Results: ① The expression level of FOSB in 138 cases of breast invasive ductal cancer tissues was negatively correlated with P16 (r= -0.181, P=0.033). ② The expression of FOSB was significantly higher in Luminal A than those in other subtypes (P=0.028, P=0.033, P=0.001, P=0.010), while the expression of P16 was significantly higher in TBNC than those in other subtypes (P=0.025, P=0.005, P=0.008, P=0.011). ③ The expression level of FOSB in TBNC was negatively correlated with the expression of P16 (r=-0.566, P=0.018). Conclusion: The expressions of FOSB and P16 in the different molecular subtypes of breast invasive ductal cancer are different. The expression level of FOSB significantly increases in Luminal A, and that of P16 significantly increases in TBNC. There is a negative correlation between the expression levels of FOSB and P16 in TBNC.

Effects of CXC-chemokine Receptor 7 Expression in Endothelial Progenitor Cells on Angiogenesis after Cerebral Ischemia-reperfusion Injury / 中国康复理论与实践

Objective:To explore the effect of upregulating CXC-chemokine receptor 7 (CXCR7) in endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs) on angiogenesis after cerebral ischemia-reperfusion injury. Methods:EPCs were isolated and cultured from human umbilical cord blood and identified. Then, the EPCs were transfected with CXCR7 overexpression lentiviral vector, and the expression of CXCR7 was identified with real-time PCR and Western blotting. The tube-like structure formation and apoptosis of EPCs under oxidized low density lipoprotein (ox-LDL) were detected with tube-like structure formation test and Annexin V/PI staining. Cerebral ischemia-reperfusion injury model in rats was established, and the qualified model rats were randomly divided into three groups after 24 hours reperfusion: PBS group (n = 12) was injected with phosphate buffers through tail vein, control group (n = 12) was injected the EPCs infected with control lentiviral vector, and CXCR7 group (n = 12) was injected with EPCs infected with CXCR7 overexpression lentiviral vector. Neurological function scores were determined seven and 14 days after transplantation. The cerebral infarct volume was measured, the number of GFP-positive cells in the ischemic site and the density of capillary were observed. Results:The expression of CXCR7 in EPCs increased after transfection (P < 0.01). Overexpression of CXCR7 improved tube formation and reduced apoptosis of EPCs under ox-LDL (P < 0.05). Compared with PBS and control groups , neurological function improved in CXCR7 group, with less infarct volume, more GFP-positive cells and density of capillary (P < 0.05). Conclusion:Up-regulating CXCR7 can improve the survival and angiogenesis of EPCs, and improve the repair of cerebral ischemia-reperfusion injury.

ExpressionandClinicalSignificanceofJunDinMolecularSubtypesof InvasiveBreastCarcinoma / 中山大学学报(医学科学版)

@#【Objective】ToinvestigatetheexpressionandclinicalsignificanceofJunDinmolecularsubtypesofinva⁃ sivebreastcarcinoma，benignandmalignantbreastlesions.【Methods】Immunohistochemicalexaminationwasperformed for160patientswithinvasivebreastcarcinoma，191patientswithbreastintraductalproliferativelesionsand20patients withnormalbreasttissue.【Results】①ComparisonwithothersubtypesshowedthattheexpressionofJunDwassignificantly increasedinTBNCsubtype（P＜0.05）anddifferencesbetweenothersubtypeswerenotstatisticallysignificant（P＞0.05） . ②TheexpressionofJunDininvasivebreastcarcinomawaslowerthanthatinbreastintraductalproliferativelesionsand normalbreasttissuse（P <0.01） .③Basedonimmunohistochemicalstaining，highpositiveexpressionrateofJunDwas associatedwithlowhistologicalgrade（P <0.01）.ThereisnocorrelationbetweenJunDandtumordiameter，age，lymph nodes，ER，PRandhistologicalgrade（P >0.05） .【Conclusions】TheexpressionofJunDwassignificantlyincreasedin TBNCsubtype.TostudytheexpressionofJunDinTBNCsubtypeofinvasivebreastcarcinomamayprovideanevaluation intargetedtreatment.ThedifferentexpressionofJunDinbenignandmalignantbreastlesionsmaybehelpfulfortheir differentialdiagnosis.

Biliary excretion characteristics of berberine, palmatine and jateorhizine in sandwich-cultured rat hepatocytes / 中国药理学通报

Aim To study the biliary excretion characteristics of berberine,palmatine and jateorhizine in rat hepatocytes.Methods Berberine,palmatine and jateorhizine were incubated with the sandwich-cultured rat hepatocytes (SCRH) in standard Ca2+ buffer or Ca2+ free buffer.The accumulation of the three compounds under different conditions were measured by UPLC-MS/MS.The biliary excretion index and biliary clearance were calculated,and the effect of P-gp or Mrp2 inhibitor on the transport of three compounds was also investigated.Results While the incubation time increased,the accumulation of the three compounds also increased.There were obvious differences in accumulation of berberine,palmatine and jateorhizine in incubations treated with standard buffer and calcium-free buffer.The P-gp inhibitors ciclosporin A and verapamil could inhibit the biliary excretion of berberine,palmatine and jateorhizine.However,the Mrp2 inhibitors MK571 and probenecid had no effect on biliary excretion of the three compounds.Conclusions The biliary excretion of berberine,palmatine and jateorhizine is mainly through an active process.They are all the P-gp substrates other than Mrp2 substrates.

Modeling and biological effects of radiation-induced xerostomia / 中国组织工程研究

BACKGROUND: There is little information available in the mechanism of radiation-induced salivary gland injury, and its treatment and prevention are still at the exploratory stage.OBJECTIVE: To establish a rat model of radiation-induced xerostomia with 18 Gy electron beam and to observe the pathological changes of the submandibular gland and changes in saliva ingredients.METHODS: Totally 115 Wistar rats were randomly divided into exposure and control groups: the rats in the exposure group were subjected to anesthesia, and the submandibular gland received 18 Gy electron beam radiation to establish the model of radiation-induced xerostomia. The rats in the control group were only anesthetized but not exposed to radiation. The water intake was recorded at 21 dys after modeling. The saliva was collected and the submandibular gland was removed at 1, 3, 7, 14, 21, 28, 35 and 42 days to detect the saliva volume and submandibular gland index,and the morphological changes of the submandibular gland were observed by hematoxylin-eosin staining.RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: At 1-21 days after modeling, the average daily water intake was (6.42±1.91) mL in the exposure group and (4.82±1.20) mL in the control group, respectively (P < 0.05). During 42 days after modeling, the saliva secretion volume in the exposure group was lower than that in the control group, which was the lowest on day 7,and the difference was significant at 7, 21, 28 and 42 days after modeling between two groups (P < 0.05). The submandibular gland index in the exposure group was significantly lower than that in the control group at 1 and 21-42 days after modeling (P < 0.05). Hematoxylin-eosin staining results showed that in the exposure group, the rat submandibular gland appeared with inflammatory infiltration, glandular atrophy and karyopyknosis that were aggravated with time until day 42. To conclude, the rat model of radiation-induced xerostomia is established successfully with 18 Gy beam, characterized as increased water intake, decreased saliva volume and progressive aggravation of pathological injury of the submandibular gland.

Simultaneous determination of five flavonoids in Duchesnea indica at five picking time by HPLC / 中成药

AIM To establish an HPLC method for the simuhaneous content determination of five flavonoids in Duchesnea indica (Andr.) Focke at five picking time (April,May,June,July and August).METHODS The analysis of D.indica methanol extract was performed on a 25 ℃ thermostatic Agilent ZORBAX SB-C18 column (250 mm×4.6 mm,5 μm),the mobile phase comprising of acetointrile-0.1％ methanoic acid flowing at 1.0 mL/min in a gradient elution manner,and the detection wavelength was set at 350 nm.RESULTS Rutin,hyperoside,isoquercitrin,celereoin and kaempferol showed good linear relationships within their own ranges (R2 ≥0.998 6),whose average recoveries were 97.1％-101.5％ with the RSDs of 1.37％-2.37％.The contents of five constituents in samples at different picking time exhibited obvious differences,among which lutin and hyperoside contents were the highest in June,isoquercitrin content was the highest in July,and celereoin and kaempferol contents were the highest in August.CONCLUSION The suitable picking time of D.indica is June and July.

Histological subtypes of lung cancer in Chinese males from 2000 to 2012 / 生物医学与环境科学（英文）

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To characterize the histological and epidemiological features of male lung cancer patients in China.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>The demographic and histological information about male lung cancer patients identified from 2000-01-01 to 2012-12-31, was collected from the Cancer Hospital of the Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences. Relative frequencies (RF) were estimated for major histological subtypes and compared according to the years of diagnosis and birth.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The RF of adenocarcinoma (ADC) increased from 21.96% to 43.36% and the RF of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) decreased from 39.11% to 32.23% from 2000 to 2012 in the 15 427 male lung cancer patients included in this study (Z=17.909, P<0.0001; Z=-6.117, P<0.0001). The RF of ADC increased from 28.72% in 2000-2004, 36.88% in 2005-2008 to 48.61% in 2009-2012 in patients born after 1960. The age-adjusted RF of ADC in 2007-2012 increased consistently in all the investigated areas.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The increased RF of ADC in male lung cancer patients highlights the need for further investigation of the etiologic factors of these tumors. Smoke-free policies rather than modifying tobacco products should be enforced.</p>

Effect of Salvia miltiorrhiza on retinopathy

OBJECTIVE@#To explore the effect of Salvia miltiorrhiza on diabetic retinopathy (DR).@*METHODS@#Diabetic mice of natural incidence type with monogenic inheritance were selected. Alloxan was injected into the caudal vein of mice once to induce DR. The structural changes of retina tissue in normal mice, DR mice and mice with high, medium and low dose of Salvia miltiorrhiza injection were observed under microscope. Then the blood glucose concentration and malonaldehyde (MDA) content were detected.@*RESULTS@#There were some microaneurysms in retina of DR group, number of gangliocyte was decreased significantly, and cells were sparse and in disorder. After modeling, the blood glucose level of high-dose Salvia miltiorrhiza group (SM III group) was significantly different from DR group (P<0.01). Till the tenth week, the blood glucose level of all SM groups was decreased significantly compared with DR group (P<0.01). The effective rates of three SM groups were 93.8%, 76.4% and 50.3%, respectively. After ten weeks, MDA content of DR group was significantly higher than those of the normal control group and SM group (P<0.01), and medium and low dose SM groups had significantly higher MDA than that of normal control group (P<0.01).@*CONCLUSIONS@#Salvia miltiorrhiza had certain protective effect on DR mice through the blood-ocular barrier.

Old age security in rural China: there is a long way to go / 中华医学杂志(英文版)

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>We aimed to examine the current developments and challenges confronted by old age security in rural China.</p><p><b>DATA SOURCES</b>This study is based on the data from PubMed, Elsevier, Wiley, EBSCO, EMBASE, SCI Expanded, ProQuest, Google, and CNKI which is the most informative database in Chinese.</p><p><b>STUDY SELECTION</b>Articles were selected with the search terms "rural", "China", "old", "older", or "elder", "elderly", or "aged", "aging", "security", "culture", "value", "medical insurance" or "community based medical insurance" or "cooperative medical scheme". Related websites and yearbooks were searched as well.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The socio-economic development has made the burden of traditional care for the rural elderly heavier than ever, and new challenges are emerging in rural communities, such as poor economic, deteriorating natural environment and health crisis.</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>The governments should improve the scale and caliber of rural old age security and strengthen regulations with great efforts in developing the rural economy and protecting the natural environment of rural communities.</p>

Clinical features and prognosis in 104 colorectal cancer patients with bone metastases / 中华肿瘤杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To investigate the clinical features and prognosis of bone metastases in colorectal cancer patients.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>The clinical data of 104 cases of colorectal cancer with bone metastasis were collected and retrospectively analyzed.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>Among all the 104 patients included, 45 (43.3%) patients had multiple bone metastases, and 59 (56.7%) patients had single bone metastasis. Pelvis (46.1%) was the most common site, followed by thoracic vertebrae (41.3%), lumbar vertebrae (40.4%), sacral vertebrae (29.8%) and ribs (29.8%). One hundred and two patients (98.1%) were complicated with other organ metastases. The median time from colorectal cancer diagnosis to bone metastasis was 16 months, and the median time from bone metastasis to first skeletal-related events (SREs) was 1 month. The most common skeletal-related events (SREs) were the need for radiotherapy (44.2%), severe bone pain (15.4%) and pathologic fracture (9.6%). The median survival time of patients with bone metastases was 10.0 months, and 8.5 months for patients with SREs. ECOG score, systemic chemotherapy and bisphosphonate therapy were prognostic factors by univariate analysis (all P < 0.05). ECOG score and systemic chemotherapy were independent prognostic factors by Cox multivariate analysis.</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>Bone metastasis in colorectal cancer patients has a poor prognosis and the use of chemotherapy and bisphosphonates may have a benefit for their survival.</p>

Application of combined fluorescence in situ hybridization and karyotype analysis for the diagnosis of Robertsonian translocation type trisomy 21 / 中华医学遗传学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To assess the value of fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) combined with chromosomal analysis for the detection of Robertsonian translocation type trisomy 21 in amniotic fluid cells.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Amniotic fluid samples from pregnant women requesting prenatal diagnosis were cultivated. Metaphase cells were prepared for G-banding karyotype analysis. For the 5 Robertsonian translocation type trisomy 21, interphase nuclei from amniotic fluid and parental peripheral blood cells were prepared for FISH analysis.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>In 2 cases, analysis of parental peripheral blood cells showed normal karyotypes. FISH analysis of amniotic fluid cells indicated that one sample had two copies of chromosome 21, which has a 46, XY, rob(21;21)(q10;q10) karyotype, whilst another had trisomy 21 by FISH, which has a 46, XY, rob(14;21)(q10;q10) karyotype. For the remaining three samples, analysis of parental peripheral blood cells indicated that their karyotypes were 45, XX, rob(14;21)(q10;q10), 45, XX, rob(15;21)(q10;q10) and 45, XX, rob(21;22)(q10;q10), whilst the karyotypes of amniotic fluid cells were 46, XX, rob(14;21)(q10;q10), 46, XY, rob(15;21)(q10;q10) and 46, XX, rob(21;22)(q10;q10), respectively.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>Combined FISH and chromosomal analysis is an efficient method for detecting non-homologous Robertsonian translocation type trisomy 21. However, FISH has limited ability to detect homologous Robertsonian translocation type trisomy 21.</p>

Analysis and prediction of liver cancer incidence in China / 中华预防医学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>Based on the cancer registry data during 1998 - 2007, to analyze the incidence of liver cancer in China and predict the trend of incidence of liver cancer between 2008 and 2015.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Liver cancer incidence data from cancer registry between 1998 and 2007 was collected, including a total of 115 417 cases, covering 446 734 668 person-year. We calculated the annual incidence rate of liver cancer by gender and area. Age-standardized rate (ASR) was calculated by the world's population age structure. JoinPoint software was applied to analyze the incidence trend and calculate annual percent change (APC). Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian Model was used to fit the incidence trend and predict the incidence trend between 2008 and 2015.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>From 1998 to 2007, according to the data from cancer registry, the liver cancer incidence was 25.84/100 000 (115 417/446 734 668), with the ASR at 18.82/100 000. In urban areas, the male incidence was 34.30/100 000 (58 353/170 131 309), with ASR at 24.99/100 000; while the female incidence was 12.33/100 000 (20 324/164 830 893), with ASR at 7.99/100 000. In rural areas, the male incidence was 48.56/100 000 (27 378/56 377 236), with ASR at 42.27/100 000; while the female incidence was 16.90/100 000 (9362/55 395 230), with ASR at 13.52/100 000. During the decade, in urban areas, the APC of male and female liver cancer incidence rates were separately 1.1% and -0.5%, with ASR at -0.5% and -1.9%; while in rural areas, the APC of male and female liver cancer incidence rates were separately 3.7% and 3.1%, with ASR at 1.9% and 1.3%. Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian Model predicted that in urban areas, the male and female incidence of liver cancer in 2015 would reach 30.73/100 000 (113 279 cases) and 10.44/100 000 (35 978 cases), with ASR at 23.70/100 000 and 7.21/100 000, respectively; while in rural areas, the incidence rates would increase to 51.67/100 000 (182 382 cases) and 15.03/100 000 (49 580 cases), with ASR at 39.80/100 000 and 10.45/100 000, respectively.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The incidence of liver cancer will increase between 2008 and 2015, but its ASR will decrease slightly. In the near future, the number of new liver cancer cases will keep increasing. Liver cancer is still the dominant cancer and one key point for cancer prevention and control in China.</p>

Analysis and prediction of esophageal cancer incidence trend in China / 中华预防医学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>Based on the registered esophageal cancer data from 1998 to 2007, to analyze the incidence of esophageal cancer during the period and then to predict its trend between year 2008 and 2015.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>The incidence data of esophageal cancer between 1998 and 2007 were sorted from National Cancer Registry Database. Data from forty selected registries were qualified and recruited in the study, including 86 427 cases in total, covering 446 734 668 person years. Crude incidence rates were calculated by area and gender. The standardized incidence rate was adjusted by World Segi's population composition. JoinPoint software was applied to analyze the 10 years' incidence trend and calculated the annual percentage change, while Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian Model was used to fit the data and predict the incidence between 2008 and 2015.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>Between 1998 and 2007, the crude incidence rates among males and females in urban areas were separately 16.58/100 000 (28 207/170 131 309) and 7.14/100 000 (11 761/164 830 893), with standardized rates at 12.06/100 000 and 4.55/100 000, respectively. In rural areas, the crude incidence rates and the standardized rates were separately 51.98/100 000 (29 303/56 377 236) and 47.18/100 000 among males, and 30.97/100 000 (17 156/55 395 230) and 25.30/100 000 among females. During the ten years, the crude incidence trend of esophageal cancer among urban females decreased from 10.29/100 000 (1115/10 838 355) in 1998 to 6.29/100 000 (1387/22 057 787) in 2007. However, the crude incidence rate among rural males increased from 47.69/100 000 (2062/4 323 628) to 54.80/100 000 (4207/7 677 484) in the same period. And the rate among rural females and urban males did not change obviously. After adjusting population structure, in urban areas, the male incidence rate decreased by 2.1% annually and female incidence rate dropped by 7.5% annually. In rural areas, the female incidence rate fell by 1.3% annually, while the male incidence rate remained the same without significant changes. The prediction model estimated that there would be 134 474 new esophageal cancer cases diagnosed in year 2015, including 104 400 males and 30 074 females, while 52 506 cases came from urban areas and the other 81 968 cases were from rural areas.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The esophageal cancer incidence showed a downtrend, especially among urban females. By year 2015, the threat of esophageal cancer will be alleviated.</p>

Analysis and prediction of colorectal cancer incidence trend in China / 中华预防医学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>Based on the data from National Cancer Registry between 1998 and 2007, to analyze the colorectal cancer incidence trend in China, and further to predict its incidence between 2008 and 2015.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>We picked up the incidence data of 111 281 cases of colorectal cancer in total from National Central Cancer Registry Database between 1998 and 2007, covering 446 734 668 person-year. The annual incidence rate of colorectal cancer both by area and gender were calculated; while the age standardized rate (ASR) was standardized by world's population age structure. The incidence trend was analyzed and the annual percentage change (APC) was calculated by JoinPoint software. Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian Model was applied to fit the colorectal cancer incidence trend in China between 1998 and 2007; and further to predict its incidence between 2008 and 2015.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>From 1998 to 2007, the colorectal cancer registered incidence was 24.91/100 000 (111 281/446 734 668), with the ASR at 17.67/100 000. The incidence in male population was 26.50/100 000 (60 015/226 508 545), with ASR at 19.90/100 000; and the incidence in female was 23.28/100 000 (51 266/220 226 123), with ASR at 15.73/100 000. In urban area, the male incidence rose from 23.29/100 000 (2617/11 237 967) in 1998 to 37.84/100 000 (8534/22 551 353) in 2007; while the female incidence increased from 21.75/100 000 (2357/10 838 355) to 31.34/100 000 (6913/22 057 787). And in rural areas, the male and female incidences rose from 10.36/100 000 (448/4 323 628) and 8.86/100 000 (372/4 197 806) in 1998 to 16.80/100 000 (1290/7 677 484) and 13.00/100 000 (978/7 522 690) in 2007 respectively. In this decade, the colorectal cancer incidence has increased both in urban and rural areas. In urban area, the male APC value was 5.5% and the female APC value was 4.0%; while in rural area, the male and female APC values were 6.0% and 4.3% respectively. After adjusted by age structure, the uptrend became gently; with the urban male and urban female APC values separately increased by 3.7%, 2.5% and 2.3%. The rural male APC value rocketed up by 8.4% after its inflection point in 2004. The Bayesian model predicted that the male and female colorectal cancer incidences would separately reach 33.92/100 000 (125 thousand cases) and 27.13/100 000 (93 thousand cases) in urban areas; and 13.61/100 000 (48 thousand cases) and 13.68/100 000 (45 thousand cases) in rural areas by year 2015.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The colorectal cancer incidence in China has been increasing annually; and it will continue to rise in the next years.</p>

Analysis and prediction of breast cancer incidence trend in China / 中华预防医学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>Based on the registered female breast cancer data from 1998 to 2007, to analyze the incidence of female breast cancer during the period and then to predict its trend from 2008 to 2015.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>The incidence data of breast cancer from 1998 to 2007 were sorted from National Cancer Registry Database, including 74 936 cases from urban areas and 8230 cases from rural areas, separately covering 164 830 893 and 55 395 229 person years. The crude incidence rates in urban and rural areas were calculated, and the age-standardized rate (ASR) was adjusted by World Segi's population composition. JoinPoint software was applied to analyze the 10 years' incidence trend and calculated the annual percentage of changing (APC), while Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian Model was used to fit the data and predict the incidence of breast cancer between 2008 and 2015.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>From 1998 to 2007, the incidence of breast cancer in the urban cancer registration areas was 45.46/100 000 (74 936/164 830 893), whose ASR was 31.28/100 000. While in rural registration areas, the incidence and ASR was 14.86/100 000 (8230/55 395 229) and 12.13/100 000. The breast cancer incidence in urban and rural areas separately rose from 36.17/100 000 (3920/10 838 355) and 10.39/100 000 (436/4 197 806) in 1998 to 51.24/100 000 (11 302/22 057 787) and 19.61/100 000 (1475/7 522 690) in 2007. During the 10 years, the breast cancer incidence increased both in urban and rural areas, but the increase rate in rural incidence (6.3%) was more significant than it in urban areas (3.9%). Age-Period-Cohort Bayesian Model predicted that the breast cancer incidence would increase to 53.87/100 000 (185 585 new cases) in urban areas and 40.14/100 000 (132 432 new cases) in rural areas, respectively.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>The breast cancer incidence has been increasing annually both in urban and rural areas in China; and an annually increase number of new cases have been predicted.</p>