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Objectives@#Fitting and forecasting the trend of COVID-19 epidemics.@*Methods@#Based on SEIR dynamic model, considering the COVID-19 transmission mechanism, infection spectrum and prevention and control procedures, we developed SEIR+ CAQ dynamic model to fit the frequencies of laboratory confirmed cases obtained from the government official websites. The data from January 20, 2020 to February 7, 2020 were used to fit the model, while the left data between February 8-12 were used to evaluate the quality of forecasting.@*Results@#According to the cumulative number of confirmed cases between January 29 to February 7, the fitting bias of SEIR+ CAQ model for overall China (except for cases of Hubei province), Hubei province (except for cases of Wuhan city) and Wuhan city was less than 5%. For the data of subsequent 5 days between February 8 to 12, which were not included in the model fitting, the prediction biases were less than 10%. Regardless of the cases diagnosed by clinical examines, the numbers of daily emerging cases of China (Hubei province not included), Hubei Province (Wuhan city not included) and Wuhan city reached the peak in the early February. Under the current strength of prevention and control, the total number of laboratory- confirmed cases in overall China will reach 80 417 till February 29, 2020, respectively.@*Conclusions@#The proposed SEIR+ CAQ dynamic model fits and forecasts the trend of novel coronavirus pneumonia well and provides evidence for decision making.
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Objective@#To explore the levels of IL-22 in thymus damaged by γ-ray total body irradiation (TBI), and to study the role of IL-22 in T cell reconstitution after thymic injury induced by TBI.@*Methods@#To induce thymic injury, mice were treated by sub-lethal TBI. Levels of intra-thymic and circulatory IL-22 were detected by using ELISA assay. Untreated mice were used as control. After receiving sub-lethal TBI, mice were intraperitoneally injected with PBS or recombinant mouse IL-22, which were marked as TBI+PBS or TBI+IL-22, respectively. Mice were monitored for counts of total thymic cells and circulatory white blood cells. Flow cytometry was applied to analyze percentages of thymic epithelial cells (TEC), thymocyte subsets and circulatory T cells. Real-time PCR assay was applied to analyze the mRNA expression levels of Foxn1, Ccl25, Aire and Dll4 in thymus.@*Results@#①Sub-lethal TBI treated mice expressed higher levels of intra-thymic and circulatory IL-22, compared with untreated ones (all P<0.05). ②After injection of recombinant IL-22, TBI+IL-22 mice had higher levels of intra-thymic IL-22 than TBI+PBS mice (all P<0.05). ③On day 14 after irradiation, real-time PCR assay showed that TBI+IL-22 mice had higher mRNA levels of Foxn1, Ccl25, Aire and Dll4 in thymus compared with TBI+PBS ones. Meanwhile, the TBI+IL-22 mice had higher counts of total thymic cells[(5.93±3.19)×106/ml vs (1.42±0.46)×106/ml, t=3.128, P=0.033] and circulatory white blood cells[(3.08±0.94)×106/ml vs (1.43±0.30)×106/ml, t=3.730, P=0.015] than those of TBI+PBS mice. Flow cytometry analysis indicated that TBI+IL-22 mice had higher counts of TEC and thymocytes than TBI+PBS mice on day 14 after irradiation (all P<0.05). On days 7 and 14 after irradiation, TBI+IL-22 mice had higher counts of circulatory white blood cells and T cells than TBI+PBS mice (all P<0.05).@*Conclusion@#Sub-lethal TBI induces upregulation of intra-thymic IL-22, and injecting of recombinant IL-22 increases level of IL-22 in thymus. Injecting of recombinant IL-22 improves recovery of TEC and increases numbers of thymocyte subsets and circulatory T cell after thymic injury.
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Objective To understand the impact of HIV and Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) co-infectious (HIV/MTB) on related mortality in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,provide evidence for the development of a better HIV/MTB co-infection control and prevention program.Methods A multiple cross-systems check (MCSC) approach was used to confirm the HIV/MTB co-infection individuals on data related to treatment,follow-up,epidemiological comprehensive and Tuberculosis (TB) special report system.Social demography characteristics,incidence of TB among HIV positive individuals,HIV incidence among MTB infection persons etc.,were described.We compared the mortalities and related risks between HIV/MTB co-infection and mono HIV positive individuals as well as between the HIV/MTB co-infection and mono MTB infection persons,using both the Chi Square test and the Cox's proportional hazard regression model (Cox).Results Reported data showed that the incidence of MTB co-infection in the HIV cohort was 17.72％ (2 533/14 293),while HIV incidence in the TB patients was 5.57％ (2 351/42 205),respectively.The mortality of HIV/MTB co-infection in the HIV/AIDS cohort was 15.16％ (384/2 533) within one-year of observation and was significantly higher than the mortality (13.63 ％,1 603/11 760) of mono HIV positive individuals (P＜0.000 1).The percentage of the HIV/AIDS death cases was 19.33％ (384/1 987) who registered and died in the 2011 calendar year were caused by MTB co-infection.Among all the HIV/MTBco-infection patients who had been identified from the HIV cohort,60.05％ (1 521/2 533) had initiated ART,15.48％ (392/2 533) had been cured for TB and 27.48％ (696/2 533) had been under complete TB regimen.Among the confirmed HIV/MTB cases from the TB cohort,the cure rate of TB was 19.70％ (463/2 351) and the percentage of completed TB regimen was 37.26％ (876/2 351).The percentage of the individuals whose CD4+ T lymphocyte cells count appeared less than 200 cell/μl was 64.13％ (785/1 224),upon the HIV diagnoses were made.Compared with individuals who were under mono HIV infection,the mortality risk on HIV/MTB co-infection was 1.17 times higher during the five-year observation period,then the patients with only mono MTB infection and the mortality risk in patients with HIV/MTB co-infection was 25.68 times higher under the 12-month observation period.Conclusions Both the incidence and mortality of HIV/MTB appeared high in Guangxi,with mortality and the risk of mortality in the HIV/MTB co-infection group significantly higher than that in both the HIV mono infection and the MTB mono infections groups.Both the rate of antiretroviral treatment coverage and the cure rate of TB treatment should be increased in no time as well as the capability of early TB case-finding among people living with HIV.
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Objective To understand the impact of HIV and Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) co-infectious (HIV/MTB) on related mortality in Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region,provide evidence for the development of a better HIV/MTB co-infection control and prevention program.Methods A multiple cross-systems check (MCSC) approach was used to confirm the HIV/MTB co-infection individuals on data related to treatment,follow-up,epidemiological comprehensive and Tuberculosis (TB) special report system.Social demography characteristics,incidence of TB among HIV positive individuals,HIV incidence among MTB infection persons etc.,were described.We compared the mortalities and related risks between HIV/MTB co-infection and mono HIV positive individuals as well as between the HIV/MTB co-infection and mono MTB infection persons,using both the Chi Square test and the Cox's proportional hazard regression model (Cox).Results Reported data showed that the incidence of MTB co-infection in the HIV cohort was 17.72％ (2 533/14 293),while HIV incidence in the TB patients was 5.57％ (2 351/42 205),respectively.The mortality of HIV/MTB co-infection in the HIV/AIDS cohort was 15.16％ (384/2 533) within one-year of observation and was significantly higher than the mortality (13.63 ％,1 603/11 760) of mono HIV positive individuals (P＜0.000 1).The percentage of the HIV/AIDS death cases was 19.33％ (384/1 987) who registered and died in the 2011 calendar year were caused by MTB co-infection.Among all the HIV/MTBco-infection patients who had been identified from the HIV cohort,60.05％ (1 521/2 533) had initiated ART,15.48％ (392/2 533) had been cured for TB and 27.48％ (696/2 533) had been under complete TB regimen.Among the confirmed HIV/MTB cases from the TB cohort,the cure rate of TB was 19.70％ (463/2 351) and the percentage of completed TB regimen was 37.26％ (876/2 351).The percentage of the individuals whose CD4+ T lymphocyte cells count appeared less than 200 cell/μl was 64.13％ (785/1 224),upon the HIV diagnoses were made.Compared with individuals who were under mono HIV infection,the mortality risk on HIV/MTB co-infection was 1.17 times higher during the five-year observation period,then the patients with only mono MTB infection and the mortality risk in patients with HIV/MTB co-infection was 25.68 times higher under the 12-month observation period.Conclusions Both the incidence and mortality of HIV/MTB appeared high in Guangxi,with mortality and the risk of mortality in the HIV/MTB co-infection group significantly higher than that in both the HIV mono infection and the MTB mono infections groups.Both the rate of antiretroviral treatment coverage and the cure rate of TB treatment should be increased in no time as well as the capability of early TB case-finding among people living with HIV.
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Objective To verify and valuate the performance of small dense low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (sdLDL-C) detection by the direct clearance method and evaluate its preliminary clinical application in acute coronary syndrome (ACS).Methods Case control study:The performance (accuracy,precision,linearity) of sdLDL-C was assessed by direct clearance method.In 143 cases of ACS patients selected from Cardiology Department and Emergency Department of Shangdong Provincial Hospital from April to October in 2016,with 100 cases male,female 43 cases,including acute myocardial infarction (AMI)group of 59 cases,unstable angina pectoris (UAP) group of 84 cases;83 cases of healthy volunteers as a control group selected from health physical examination center of Shandong Provincial Hospital,with 59cases male,female 24 cases.Levels of sdLDL-C,total cholesterol (TCH),triglyceride (TG),low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C),high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C),apolipoprotein A (ApoA I),apolipoprotein B (ApoB),lipoprotein (a) (Lpa) and high sensitive C-reactive protein (Hs-CRP) were detected separately by automatic biochemical analyzer.Non high density lipoprotein cholesterol (non-HDL-C) equals TCH minus HDL-C.x2 test,t test,one-way ANOVA,Pearson correlation and multiple linear regression analysis were used as statistical methods.Results The within-lot or between-lot variation was 2.85％ and 3.36％.Methodological comparison:regression equation Y =0.984X + 0.018,r2 =0.966,t =-0.191,P =0.850.There was a good linear correlation (Y =1.026X + 0.007,r2 =0.999) between theoretical values and actual detection results in range of 0.15-2.65 mmol/L.SdLDL-C concentrations were positive correlated with TCH,non-HDL,LDL-C,TG,ApoB (r =0.758,0.848,0.839,0.514,0.885,respectively,P ＜0.01),and negative correlated with HDL-C (r =-0.224,P =0.001),but no correlation with APOA I,Lpa and Hs-CRP(r =-0.021,0.050,0.003,respectively,P ＞ 0.05).Multiple linear regression analysis showed that the factors influencing sdLDL-C level were HDL-C,ApoB,LDL-C and TG.The levels of sdLDL-C,TG in the ACS group were significantly higher than those in the control group (t =3.415,4.660,respectively,P ＜ 0.01),but no difference between the two groups in the levels of TCH,non-HDL-C and LDL-C (t=-1.831,-0.452,-1.398,respectively,P ＞0.05).Comparing AMI group with control group,sdLDL-C,TG and Hs-CRP were significantly higher than the control group (P =0.000,0.000,0.000,respectively),but TCH,LDL-C and non-HDL were similar between the two groups (P =0.800,0.320,0.120,respectively);Comparing UAP group with control group,TG and Hs-CRP were higher than control group (P =0.001,0.047,respectively),TCH and LDL-C were significantly lower than the control group (P =0.003,0.008,respectively),but sdLDL-C had no difference (P =0.305);Comparing AMI group with UAP group,sdLDL-C,TCH,LDL-C and Hs-CRP were significantly higher than UAP group (P =0.000,0.003,0.001,0.000,respectively),and TG were no statistical significance (P =0.473).Conclusions Direct clearance method can meet the requirement of sdLDL-C detection.sdLDL-C level can assess the metabolism of blood lipids and be used as an independent risk factor and predictive index of ACS,superior to LDL-C.
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Objective To compare the efficacy of highly active anti-retroviral treatment (HAART) with and with AZT. Methods Data of 235 HIV patients accepted from Oct. 2010 to Nov. 2013 who took AZT (133) or TDF (102) containing regimen as first-line HAART are analyzed retrospectively. CD4+ T cell counts acted as the base line after 12 months of HAART. Increase in CD4+ T cell count number after the HAART, virological failures and drug resistance were compared between the two groups. Results The two groups had comparable baseline CD4+T cell count, gender ratio, and HIV transmision mode; after 12 months of HARRT, no statistically differences were found between the two groups with regard to CD4 + T cell count and increase in CD4+ T cell count after the 12-month HAART (P > 0.05); AZT-containing group had more virological failure (3/0). Meanwhile AZT-containing group had one thymidine analog mutation (TAMs) which confers resistance to AZT (P > 0.05 for both). Conculsion The two HAARTs have same immunological effects; AZT-containing group exhibits 2.2% viralogial failure, but its direct relationship with AZT has not been confirmed.
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BACKGROUND:We have found that oriented fibers can guide the alignment of smooth muscle cells in our previous experiments. Thus, we designed the experiment to prepare wel aligned polymeric fibers using electrospinning technology, aiming at guiding the growth of esophageal smooth muscle cells to maintain cellmorphology and biological function. OBJECTIVE:Using electrospinning technology, to fabricate isotropic and directed nano-fibrous scaffolds made of polycaprolacton, gelatin and silk fibroin. METHODS:Polycaprolacton/silk fibroin fibers at a ratio of 4:1 were prepared with proper parameters, including solution concentration, voltage and injection speed, under the self-made spinning system. The polycaprolacton/gelatin sheets with mass ratio of 2:1, 1:1 and 1:2, respectively, were also fabricated under suitable process parameters. Using the rol er col ector instead of the metal plate, polycaprolacton/gelatin nano-fibrous scaffold with good alignment of fibers was manufactured. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION:The isotropic polycaprolacton/silk fibroin scaffold with fiber diameter of (535.9±126.7) nm was prepared under conditions of solution concentration (0.08 g/mL), injection speed (1.6 mL/h) and voltage (22.5 kV), and these fibers were uniform with no beads. The isotropic polycaprolacton/gelatin scaffold with fiber diameter of (257.9±117.8) nm was prepared under conditions of solution concentration (0.10 g/mL), injection speed (0.8 mL/h) and voltage (22.5 kV). Using the rol er col ector instead of the previous metal plate, polycaprolacton/gelatin (w:w, 1:2) nano-fibrous scaffold with good alignment of fibers was manufactured. The process parameters were 3 000 r/min of rol ing speed, 0.8 mL/h of injection speed and 15 kV of voltage.
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Objective To explore the factors affecting the duration of secondary prophylaxis for penicilliosis marneffei in patients with acquired immunodeflciency syndrome (AIDS).Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted.The study included 92 adult patients with AIDS and penicilliosis mameffei which were confirmed at the Guangxi Centers for Disease Control and Prevention/Medecins Sans Frontieres clinic.The patients were divided into two groups based on the counts of CD4+ T cells at the time of discontinuation of secondary prophylaxis with itraconazole.The patients with a CD4+ lymphocyte count ＞ or =200 × 106 cells/L at the discontinuation of secondary prophylaxis were assigned to Group Ⅰ,and those with a CD4+ lymphocyte count ranging from 100 × 106 to 200 × 106 cells/L to Group Ⅱ.The treatment duration and clinical outcome were compared between the two groups,and factors which might affect the duration of secondary prophylaxis,including organ involvement,complications,antifungal regimen,antiviral treatment timing,and so on,were assessed.The SPSS 13.0 ~ftware package was used for statistical analysis.Results All the 92 patients received highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART).No significant difference was observed in the sex ratio,age,follow up duration,number of organs involved,occurrence of complications,composition and duration of antifungal treatment regimens between the two groups (all P ＞ 0.05).The duration of secondary prophylaxis was significantly shorter in Group Ⅱ than in Group Ⅰ (8.13 ± 5.13 vs.12.44 ± 9.51 months,P＜0.05).The commencement of HAART after the treatment of penicilliosis,coinfection with other pathogens or mycobacterium tuberculosis were associated with a longer duration of secondary prophylaxis,and the influence degree of these factors decreased in order,whereas the commencement of HAART before the treatment of penicilliosis was associated with a shorter secondary prophylaxis (P ＜ 0.05).Conclusions For AIDS/PSM patients receiving HAART,secondary prophylaxis could be discontinued 3 to 6 months after the CD4 +lymphocyte count restores to 100 × 106 cells/L or more.The duration of secondary prophylaxis may be extended by the commencement of HAART after the treatment of penicilliosis,coinfection with other pathogens or mycobacterium tuberculosis,but shortened by the commencement of HAART before the treatment of penicilliosis.