Joinpoint regression analysis for the mortality trend of breast cancer in Chinese female from 1987 to 2014 / 中南大学学报(医学版)

Objective:To analyze the current situation for the mortality of Chinese female breast cancer and the trend of change in the past thirty years,and to provide scientific basis for prevention and control of breast cancer in China.Methods:The mortality data of breast cancer in Chinese female from 1987 to 2014 were collected,the trends of age-standardized rates and age-adjusted rates were described,and the variations via Joinpoint regression models were analyzed.Results:From 1987 to 2014,the mortality for the urban female breast cancer was greater than that for the rural females.There was a downward trend for urban women with an average decrease of 0.3％ for each year (P=0.06).While the average annual change for rural females showed an upward trend (AAPC=l.26％,P＜0.01).The gap between urban and rural females is narrowing gradually.The 40-59 age-adjusted rate for urban females decreased first and then it was increased with time moving forward.The mortality for rural females was continuously increased.Conclusion:From 1987 to 2014,the breast cancer mortality for urban females was overall higher than that for rural females.The mortality for rural females was continuously increased in the past years.The gap between urban and rural females is narrowing.We should pay specific attention to the prevention and treatment of breast cancer for the rural females.

Mortality trend in nasopharynx cancer in Chinese resident from 1987 to 2015 / 中南大学学报(医学版)

To analyze epidemical features, distribution and time trend for nasopharynx cancer deaths in China from 1987 to 2015.
 Methods: Negative binomial regression model was used to explore population-level risk factors for nasopharynx cancer deaths and a joinpoint regression model was used to estimate annual changes in nasopharynx cancer mortality in various populations.
 Results: A falling trend in age-standardized nasopharynx cancer mortality rates was observed among Chinese residents with the average annual percent change (AAPC) at -2.97% among urban female residents and -2.60% among rural female residents (P<0.05), -2.01% among urban male residents, and -1.68% among rural male residents (P<0.05), respectively. It decreased yearly for urban male aged over 85 years with AAPC at -1.54% and the age-specific mortality rates decreased yearly for the urban female aged over 85 years with AAPC at -0.60%, the age-specific mortality rates decreased yearly for rural male residents aged more than 65 years with AAPC at -0.56% and for rural female residents aged more than 85 with AAPC at 1.17%, with no significant difference (P<0.05). The nasopharynx cancer deaths risks were higher in urban residents than those in rural residents (OR=1.11, P<0.01), and they were also higher in male residents than those in female residents (OR=2.34, P<0.01). A 5-year increment in age was associated with a 23% increase in nasopharynx cancer mortality (OR=1.23, P<0.01) and a one year increment in calendar year was related to a 2% decrease in mortality (OR=0.98, P<0.01). 
 Conclusion: There was a significant gender and age difference in a decreased trend of nasopharynx cancer mortality among Chinese residents in a long period; no increased trend was observed in the overall populations over 85 years old.

Joinpoint regression analysis for the trends of cervical cancer mortality between 1987-2014 in China / 中国癌症杂志

Background and purpose: Cervical cancer is one of the most common malignant tumors and poses a great threat to women's fitness. Monitoring its present status and variations over the past 3 decades could provide scientific basis for prevention and control strategies of cervical cancer in China. Methods: This study collected the mortality rates of cervical cancer data in Chinese women from 1987 to 2014, described the features and trends of age-standardized rates and truncated rates, and estimated the variations via joinpoint regression models. Results:The mortality rates of cervical cancer for rural women were roughly higher than those for urban women. It showed downward trends for both urban and rural women, and the average rate of decrease for rural women (AAPC=3.94％, P<0.01) was higher than that for urban women (AAPC=1.79％, P<0.01). The gap between urban and rural areas was narrowing, with urban rates exceeding rural rates after 2010. The mortality rates of cervical cancer increased with time for urban women aged from 30 to 54, decreased with time for the elderly urban women and all the rural women. Conclusion: The overall mortality rates of cervical cancer took a desirable turn in China over the past 3 decades, while the status for the middle-aged urban women was getting worse as well as the elderly in both urban and rural areas during the past 10 years.