Spatial epidemiological analysis of measles in Taizhou from 2009 to 2017 / 中华疾病控制杂志

Objective To analyze the spatial epidemiological characteristics of measles in Taizhou from 2009 to 2017, so as to provide theoretical basis for measles prevention and control. Methods The spatial autocorrelation analysis and trend surface analysis of measles epidemics data from 2009 to 2017 in Taizhou were performed using ArcGIS 10.0 software. The dynamic characteristics of measles epidemics in Taizhou were analyzed. Results Among 2009-2017 years, the incidences of measles in Taizhou ranged from 0.83/1 million to 65.43/1 million. The results of global autocorrelation analysis showed that there were spatial correlations of the incidence of measles among 2012, 2013, 2015, and 2016 in Taizhou with a high-value clustering distribution. Local autocorrelation analysis indicated that the hot spots of measles incidence in Taizhou from 2009 to 2017 were mainly concentrated in the central towns of Taizhou. Trend surface analysis suggested that the measles incidence in the south towns of Taizhou was higher than that in the north in 2010, and the incidence in the central region was higher than those in other regions in 2013 and 2015. Conclusions According to the spatial analysis, autocorrelation was observed for the spatial distribution of measles incidence in Taizhou from 2009 to 2017, and there are hot spots in the central township. Targeted preventive measures should be taken based on these characteristics.

The application of network scale-up method on female sex workers and clients size estimation in Taizhou city / 中华预防医学杂志

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To estimate the size of female sex workers and clients in Taizhou city.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>A household survey using network scale-up method (NSUM) was conducted among the 3000 community residents in Taizhou city from August to October in 2011, which aimed to estimate the social network size (c value) of Taizhou residents, and the c value was adjusted by demographic characteristics, back estimation and outlier elimination. Using the adjusted c value, the number of acquaintance of female sex workers or clients and the respect level toward female sex workers or clients were used to estimate the size of female sex workers and clients.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>A total of 2783 valid questionnaires were collected, among which 1380 (49.6%) were collected from Taixing city, 1403 (50.4%) were collected from Jingjiang city. 1334 respondents were male (47.9%) and 1449 (47.9%) respondents were female. The mean age was (39.4 ± 10.7) years. The average personal social network size using original data for Taizhou residents was 525, which differed from place, sex, age, educational level and marriage status. Using the remaining known populations through back estimation, the social network size was 419 and became 424 after the elimination of outliers. The estimated population size for female sex worker was 6370 (95%CI: 5886 - 6853), which accounted for 0.52% (6370/1 229 980) of the total number of female aged from 15 to 49. The estimated population size for clients was 15 202 (95%CI: 14 560 - 15 847), which accounted for 1.28% (15 202/1 190 340) of the total number of males aged from 15 to 49 and the ration of clients to female sex worker was 2.39:1.</p><p><b>CONCLUSION</b>NSUM is an easy and quick way to estimate the size of female sex workers or clients, but the estimated sizes are subject to bias and error due to estimate effect and sample representativeness.</p>

Kinetics model of spherical immobilized cellulase / 生物工程学报

A kinetics model was developed for predicting and simulating immobilized cellulase performance, which follows Michaelis-Menten kinetics with competitive product inhibition. Taking into account the effects of competitive product inhibition, inner diffusional limitation, substrate concentration and carrier size, the substrate distribution and the product distribution in carriers were investigated, and the effectiveness factors were also calculated over a wide range of parameters. The effects of competitive product inhibition are shown to increase the substrate concentration in the carrier, and, additionally, to increase the effectiveness factors slightly. With the increase of inner diffusion coefficient, both the effectiveness factors and the substrate concentration in the carrier increase. As the carrier size increases, on the other hand, these values decrease. The effectiveness factors and the substrate concentration in the carrier are found to increase when substrate concentration in the reaction system increases.