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@#Objective To explore the prognostic value of serum cystatin C (Cys C) in patients with congenital heart disease-associated pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH-CHD). Methods A retrospective cohort study was conducted on adult PAH-CHD patients who were hospitalized for the first time in the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University from January 2010 to January 2020. The serum Cys C and other related data of patients were collected. The median follow-up time was 57 months. The main end event was all-cause death. According to the prognosis, the patients were divided into a survival group and a death group. Cox regression was used to analyze the risk factors for all-cause death in patients with PAH-CHD. Results A total of 456 patients were enrolled, including 160 males and 296 females, aged 38.99±14.72 years. The baseline data showed that there were statistical differences in resting heart rate, serum Cys C, creatinine, NT-proB-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT), high-sensitivity C reactive protein (hs-CRP), New York Heart Association (NYHA) cardiac function classification and serum potassium between the survival group and the death group. Univariate Cox regression analysis showed that serum Cys C, NT-proBNP, hs-cTnT, creatinine and NYHA cardiac function classification were related risk factors for all-cause death in patients with PAH-CHD. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that serum Cys C (HR=3.820, 95%CI 2.053-7.108, P<0.001), NYHA grade Ⅲ (HR=2.234, 95%CI 1.316-3.521, P=0.010), NYHA grade Ⅳ (HR=4.037, 95%CI 1.899-7.810, P=0.002) and NT-proBNP (HR=1.026, 95%CI 1.013-1.039, P<0.001) were independent risk factors for all-cause death in patients with PAH-CHD and had a good predictive value. Conclusion As a new cardiac marker, serum Cys C can predict all-cause death in patients with PAH-CHD and is an independent risk factor.
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Drought is expected to be more severe and frequent due to climate change. Drought exerts not only extensive impacts on economy and environment, but also direct or indirect impacts on human health. This review systematically collected studies exploring the association between drought and human mortality, and summarized the associations between drought and all-cause mortality, chronic non-communicable disease mortality, communicable disease mortality, and injury mortality. The results revealed that drought was significantly associated with human mortality, leading to an elevated mortality risk of cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, cancers, diarrhea, and injuries; serious drought increased much more mortality risk than mild drought; males in rural areas, the elderly, and children were vulnerable populations to drought. However, in-depth studies on the association of drought with human mortality are limited, which calls for related studies in the future. This review summarized the current research status and existing problems in drought and population death, and pointed out the future research direction, which can provide reference for future related research.
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Abstract Background The authors examined the relationship between Weight-adjusted Waist Index (WWI) and all-cause and cardiovascular mortality among adults in the US. Methods This prospective cohort study included 26,882 individuals who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) from 2005 through 2014. WWI was calculated as waist circumference divided by the square root of weight. The main outcomes of this study were all-cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Mortality status and cause of death were determined by NHANES-linked National Death Index records through December 31, 2015. Cox proportional hazard models and Kaplan-Meier analysis were used to estimate Hazard Ratios (HR) and 95% CIs for mortality for all causes and cardiovascular diseases. Results A total of 26,882 participants with a mean WWI of 10.89 ± 0.01, of whom 49.23% were male. The average follow-up time was 68.95 ± 1.07 months, and 1870 participants were determined as deceased (4.99%), including 349 cardiovascular death (0.88%). The Kaplan-Meier analysis demonstrated a significant difference in all-cause and cardiovascular mortality between patients with WWI <11.33 and ≥11.33 (both log-rank testp < 0.0001). The fully adjusted Cox proportional hazard model indicated that a higher WWI level (≥ 11.33) was associated with an increased 95% risk for cardiovascular mortality (HR = 1.95, 95% CI 1.30‒2.93) and 68% risk for all-cause death (HR = 1.68, 95% CI 1.41‒2.00) compared with the counterparts. Conclusions Elevated WWI levels were associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular mortality and all-cause mortality independently.
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Objective:To explore the influencing factors of all-cause death in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) and renal insufficiency(RI), and establish a clinical prediction tool.Methods:Collected 727 patients who were hospitalized in Beijing Anzhen Hospital from January 1st 2014 to April 31th 2019, and diagnosed as AMI with RI. Recorded the patients' baseline characteristics, past medical history, current complications, laboratory and auxiliary examination results, treatment methods (included target vessel reconstruction methods, medications, etc.), and follow-up patients for all-cause deaths. Firstly, multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to construct the model in the training set(485 cases). Secondly, the receiver operating characteristic curve ( ROC), calibration curve and clinical decision curve analysis (DCA) were drawn in the validation set(242 cases) to further verify the effect of the prediction model. Finally, a nomogram was developed based on the verified risk factors. Results:Multivariate Cox regression analysis found that there were nine predictors for the prognosis of all-cause death in patients with AMI & RI, the dangerous factors included women, comorbidities, high direct bilirubin, cardiogenic shock, respiratory failure, co-infection and hemofiltration; the protective factors included PCI and taking aspirin. Model evaluation results showed that the AUC of the validation set was 0.82; the calibration line was close to the ideal calibration line, and the slope≈1, the intercept≈0, and the fitting effect was good. Clinical decision-making when the all-cause mortality rate was 35%, the net benefit of active intervention patients based on the Cox model was 38%. A visual nomogram model was developed based on the prognostic risk factors that have been evaluated and predicted to be good. Conclusion:Women, with a history of comorbidities, direct high bilirubin, combined with cardiogenic shock, combined with respiratory failure, combined infection, hemofiltration, PCI and taking aspirin, these nine factors will affect all causes of AMI & RI. For the probability of death, the model developed in this research has high accuracy.
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Objective@#To explore associations between lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) and the risk of cardiovascular events in a Chinese population, with a long-term follow-up.@*Methods@#A random sample of 2,031 participants (73.6% males, mean age = 60.4 years) was derived from the Asymptomatic Polyvascular Abnormalities Community study (APAC) from 2010 to 2011. Serum Lp-PLA2 levels were determined by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). The composite endpoint was a combination of first-ever stroke, myocardial infarction (MI) or all-cause death. Lp-PLA2 associations with outcomes were assessed using Cox models.@*Results@#The median Lp-PLA2 level was 141.0 ng/mL. Over a median follow-up of 9.1 years, we identified 389 events (19.2%), including 137 stroke incidents, 43 MIs, and 244 all-cause deaths. Using multivariate Cox regression, when compared with the lowest Lp-PLA2 quartile, the hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals for developing composite endpoints, stroke, major adverse cardiovascular events, and all-cause death were 1.77 (1.24-2.54), 1.92 (1.03-3.60), 1.69 (1.003-2.84), and 1.94 (1.18-3.18) in the highest quartile, respectively. Composite endpoints in 145 (28.6%) patients occurred in the highest quartile where Lp-PLA2 (159.0 ng/mL) was much lower than the American Association of Clinical Endocrinologists recommended cut-off point, 200 ng/mL.@*Conclusion@#Higher Lp-PLA2 levels were associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular event/death in a middle-aged Chinese population. The Lp-PLA2 cut-off point may be lower in the Chinese population when predicting cardiovascular events.
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Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , 1-Alquil-2-acetilglicerofosfocolina Esterase/sangue , Povo Asiático , Doenças Cardiovasculares/diagnóstico , China/epidemiologia , Estudos Longitudinais , Mortalidade , Infarto do Miocárdio/sangue , Valor Preditivo dos Testes , Fatores de Risco , Acidente Vascular Cerebral/sangueRESUMO
Objective:To determine whether insulin resistance is associated with all-cause mortality in subjects without diabetes.Methods:A total of 505 participants without diabetes, 198 with normal glucose tolerance (NGT) and 307 with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT), were recruited from the Daqing Diabetes Study. The participants were followed up for 30 years. They were stratified into three groups (tertiles) according to baseline homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance(HOMA-IR) levels, as the HOMA-IR 0, the HOMA-IR 1 and the HOMA-IR 2 groups, to assess the predictive effect of insulin resistance on risk of all-cause mortality.Results:During the 30-year follow-up, 52, 56 and 78 participants died across the three HOMA-IR groups, respectively. The corresponding mortality per 1 000 person-years (95 %CI) were 12.12 (9.56-15.01), 13.10 (10.46-16.03) and 19.91 (16.73-23.15), respectively. Participants in the HOMA-IR 2 group had a significantly higher risk of death than those in the HOMA-IR 0 group after adjustment of age, sex and smoking status ( HR=1.97,95 %CI 1.38-2.81, P<0.001). Cox analyses showed that a one standard deviation increase in HOMA-IR was associated with a 22% increase in the mortality after adjustment of potential confounders ( HR=1.22, 95 %CI 1.08-1.39, P=0.002). Conclusions:Insulin resistance is associated with increased risk of all-cause death in Chinese people without diabetes, suggesting that improving insulin resistance could be beneficial for people without diabetic in reducing risk of long-term all-cause mortality.
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Objective:To analyze the value of minute ventilation to carbon dioxide production slope (VE/VCO 2 slope) combined with peak systolic blood pressure (SBP) in predicting prognosis for patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). Methods:A total of 170 patients with CHF who visited the Cardiac Rehabilitation Center of Tongji Hospital Affiliated to Tongji University and completed cardiopulmonary exercise test from March 2007 to December 2018 were enrolled in the study. The clinical data, cardiopulmonary exercise testing results and follow-up information of patients were collected to explore the predictors of all-cause mortality in patients with CHF.Results:The median follow-up time was 647 (182-1 764) days. All-cause death occurred in 34 patients. Compared with surviving patients, the proportion of diabetes and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor/angiotensin Ⅱ receptor blocker (ACEI/ARB) use in fatal patients was significantly higher ( P<0.01). The VE/VCO 2 slope and peak SBP*VE/VCO 2 in the fatal patients were significantly higher, and the peak oxygen consumption (peak VO 2) was lower than those in the surviving patients ( P<0.01). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of VE/VCO 2 slope and peak SBP*VE/VCO 2 in predicting all-cause mortality in patients with CHF were 0.648 ( P=0.008) and 0.681 ( P=0.001), respectively; the optimal thresholds were >40.95 ( P=0.008) and > 5 423.50 mmHg (1 mmHg=0.133 kPa, P=0.006), the sensitivity was 0.559 and 0.588, and the specificity was 0.728 and 0.735, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that after adjusting for age, gender, diabetes and ACEI/ARB use, VE/VCO 2 slope ( HR=2.12, P=0.036) and peak SBP*VE/VCO 2 ( HR=2.42, P=0.016) were independent risk factors for all-cause mortality in patients with CHF. Conclusion:Compared to the traditional index VE/VCO 2 slope, a novel index peak SBP* VE/VCO 2 provides a relatively better predictive value for all-cause death of CHF patients.
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Objective:To explore the effects of pre- and post-diagnosis of malignant neoplasms total cholesterol difference on all-cause death in the Kailuan study population.Methods:A prospective cohort study method was used to observe on the job and retired workers who were diagnosed with malignant neoplasms during the healthy physical examination and had the complete data of total cholesterol pre- and post-diagnosis of malignant neoplasms at Kailuan (Group) Limited Liability Corporation from June 2006 to December 2015. Medical insurance system and medical records case management system of Kailuan General Hospital were used to retrieve the confirmed diagnosis time of participants with malignant neoplasms. SAS 9.4 software was used to extract the physical examination data of participants diagnosed as malignant neoplasms before and after 2 years. The whole participants were divided into 4 groups according to the quartile of the total cholesterol difference pre- and post-diagnosis of cancer. The first quartile group: the total cholesterol difference <-0.93 mmol/L (823 cases), the second quartile group: the total cholesterol difference≥-0.93 mmol/L and <-0.21 mmol/L (811 cases), the third quartile group: the total cholesterol difference≥-0.21 mmol/L and <0.49 mmol/L (832 cases), the forth quartile group: the total cholesterol difference≥0.49 mmol/L (833 cases). The incidence density was used to calculate the mortality of different total cholesterol difference quartile groups, and the Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyze the influencing factors of all-cause death of all quartile groups.Results:Totally, 1 564 cases had all-cause death during median 2.46 years of follow-up time. There were 481, 440, 333, 310 death cases respectively of 4 quartile groups. The death rates of all quartile groups were 230.10/1 000 person-years, 163.90/1 000 person-years, 115.34/1 000 person-years, and 83.44/1 000 person-years respectively ( χ2 = 604.62, P < 0.001). After adjusting for confounding factors, the Cox proportional hazards model analysis showed that compared with the first quartile group, the hazard ratio with the 95% confidence interval of all-cause death in the second, third, and fourth quartile groups was 0.86 (0.76-0.98), 0.62(0.54-0.72) and 0.58 (0.50-0.67) respectively (all Ptrend < 0.001). After adjusting for confounding factors of patients with cancer in different location, the forth quartile group except for cancer in thyroid, breast, prostate, testis and urinary system, all Ptrend was less than 0.05 compared with that of the first quartile group. Conclusion:Among Kailuan study population, the smaller decline or even rise in total cholesterol level of post-diagnosis compared with that of pre-diagnosis is a protective factor of all-cause death.
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OBJECTIVE@#To investigate the association between alcohol drinking and all-cause death in patients with ischemic stroke.@*METHODS@#Between January, 2010 and July, 2018, consecutive patients with first-episode ischemic stroke admitted in the West China Hospital, Sichuan University were enrolled, and all the patients were followed up every 3 months.Chi-square test was used to compare the differences in the baseline characteristics between the pre-stroke drinkers and the nondrinkers.The Cox regression model was used to analyze the effects of drinking status, drinking years, drinking frequency, average single alcohol intake before stroke and drinking status during the follow-up period on the mortality of patients after discharge.@*RESULTS@#A total of 855 patients with ischemic stroke were enrolled, and deaths occurred in 140 of these patients.Chi-square test showed significant differences in gender ( < 0.001), weekly physical exercise time (=0.035), smoking ( < 0.001), and heart disease ( < 0.001) between the pre-stroke drinkers and nondrinkers.Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that drinking during the follow-up period (=0.001), drinking for less than 28 years before stroke (=0.035) and a moderate drinking frequency (5 to 20 times per month for males and 4 to 9 times per month for females; =0.030) were associated with a lowered risk of death after discharge.No significant effects of pre-stroke drinking status or average single alcohol intake were found on death after ischemic stroke.@*CONCLUSIONS@#The drinking years and drinking frequency before stroke and drinking status during the follow-up period are related to the all-cause mortality in patients with ischemic stroke.Investigations of the more specific variables of drinking behaviors during the follow-up period are needed to further clarify the association between drinking and death after ischemic stroke.
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Feminino , Humanos , Masculino , Consumo de Bebidas Alcoólicas , Isquemia Encefálica , China , Seguimentos , Fatores de Risco , Acidente Vascular CerebralRESUMO
Objective To investigate the nutritional status of patients with heart failure and its effect on all-cause mortality.Methods A total of 351 patients with chronic heart failure,who were consecutively admitted to the East Hospital of Shanghai from March 2013 to November 2015,were put into the heart failure with reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (HFrEF) group.They were compared to 222 controls who were admitted during the same period for preclinical heart failure.After a median follow-up time of 606 days,108 patients of the HFrEF group died,compared to 11 of the controls.Logistic regression was used to analyze correlations of all-cause mortality with the patients' body mass index (BMI),serum albumin and other factors.Results Compared to the controls,patients with chronic heart failure had lower BMI [(22.71±3.95) kg/m2 vs.(24.23±3.66) kg/m2,t=4.331,P=0.000],total cholesterol [(3.81±0.99) mmol/L vs.(4.03±0.96) mmol/L,t=2.638,P=0.009],albumin [(38.18±5.03) g/Lvs.(40.18±6.12) g/L,t=3.874,P=0.000] and prealbumin [(187.67±61.83) mg/L vs.(211.94±65.44) mg/L,t=3.937,P=0.000].Within the HFrEF group,patients with lower BMI had higher mortality (36.0％ vs.22.4％,P=0.008).Logistic regression suggested BMI,age were independent predictors of all-cause death.Conclusions Patients with chronic heart failure had high incidence of malnutrition,and those with BMI＜22 kg/m2 had higher risk of mortality.Serum albumin and BMI not only reflected nutritional status of the patients but had significant implications on prognosis.
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We investigated the prognostic effects of high-flux hemodialysis (HFHD) and low-flux hemodialysis (LFHD) in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Both an electronic and a manual search were performed based on our rigorous inclusion and exclusion criteria to retrieve high-quality, relevant clinical studies from various scientific literature databases. Comprehensive meta-analysis 2.0 (CMA 2.0) was used for the quantitative analysis. We initially retrieved 227 studies from the database search. Following a multi-step screening process, eight high-quality studies were selected for our meta-analysis. These eight studies included 4967 patients with CKD (2416 patients in the HFHD group, 2551 patients in the LFHD group). The results of our meta-analysis showed that the all-cause death rate in the HFHD group was significantly lower than that in the LFHD group (OR=0.704, 95%CI=0.533-0.929, P=0.013). Additionally, the cardiovascular death rate in the HFHD group was significantly lower than that in the LFHD group (OR=0.731, 95%CI=0.616-0.866, P<0.001). The results of this meta-analysis clearly showed that HFHD decreases all-cause death and cardiovascular death rates in patients with CKD and that HFHD can therefore be implemented as one of the first therapy choices for CKD.
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Humanos , Diálise Renal/métodos , Falência Renal Crônica/terapia , Prognóstico , Doenças Cardiovasculares/mortalidade , Viés , Estudos de Casos e Controles , Análise de Regressão , Causas de Morte , Sensibilidade e Especificidade , Viés de Publicação/estatística & dados numéricos , Progressão da Doença , Insuficiência Renal Crônica/mortalidade , Falência Renal Crônica/mortalidadeRESUMO
Objective To evaluate the factors influencing the 5-year all-cause death in acute myocarclial infarction with ST segment elevation.Methods Five hundred and ten patients(