RESUMO
PURPOSE: To investigate the various imaging factors associated with aggravation of lumbar disc herniation (LDH) and develop a scoring system for prediction of LDH aggravation. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From 2015 to 2017, we retrospectively reviewed the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings of 60 patients (30 patients with aggravated LDH and 30 patients without any altered LDH). Imaging factors for MRI evaluation included the level of LDH, disc degeneration, back muscle atrophy, facet joint degeneration, ligamentum flavum thickness and interspinous ligament degeneration. Flexion-extension difference was measured with simple radiography. The scoring system was analyzed using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. RESULTS: The aggravated group manifested a higher grade of disc degeneration, back muscle atrophy and facet degeneration than the control group. The ligamentum flavum thickness in the aggravated group was thicker than in the group with unaltered LDH. The summation score was defined as the sum of the grade of disc degeneration, back muscle atrophy and facet joint degeneration. The area under the ROC curve showing the threshold value of the summation score for prediction of aggravation of LDH was 0.832 and the threshold value corresponded to 6.5. CONCLUSION: Disc degeneration, facet degeneration, back muscle atrophy and ligamentum flavum thickness are important factors in predicting aggravation of LDH and may facilitate the determination of treatment strategy in patients with LDH. The summation score is available as supplemental data.