Study on nomograph predicting the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Beijing community adults / 中华内科杂志

Objective:Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting the 4-year incidence of type-2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in a Chinese population was attempted.Methods:This prospective cohort study was conducted in Shijingshan District Pingguoyuan Community (Beijing, China) from December 2011 to April 2012 among adults aged≥40 years not suffering from T2DM. Finally, 8 058 adults free of T2DM were included with a median duration of follow-up of 4 years. Participants were divided into a modeling group and verification group using simple random sampling at a ratio of 7∶3. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional risk models were applied to identify the independent risk predictors in the modeling group. A nomogram was constructed to predict the 4-year incidence of T2DM based on the results of multivariate analysis. The Concordance Index and calibration plots were used to evaluate the differentiation and calibration of the nomogram in both groups.Results:A total of 5 641 individuals were in the modeling group and 2 417 people were in the validation group, of which 265 and 106 had T2DM, respectively, at 4-year follow-up. In the modeling group, age ( HR=1.349, 95% CI 1.011-1.800), body mass index ( HR=1.347, 95% CI 1.038-1.746), hyperlipidemia ( HR=1.504, 95% CI 1.133-1.996), fasting blood glucose ( HR=4.189, 95% CI 3.010-5.830), 2-h blood glucose level according to the oral glucose tolerance test ( HR=3.005, 95% CI 2.129-4.241), level of glycosylated hemoglobin ( HR=3.162, 95% CI 2.283-4.380), and level of γ-glutamyl transferase ( HR=1.920, 95% CI 1.385-2.661) were independent risk factors for T2DM. Validation of the nomogram revealed the Concordance Index of the modeling group and validation group to be 0.906 (95% CI 0.888-0.925) and 0.844 (95% CI 0.796-0.892), respectively. Calibration plots showed good calibration in both groups. Conclusion:These data suggest that our nomogram could be a simple and reliable tool for predicting the 4-year risk of developing T2DM in a high-risk Chinese population.

Value of CHADS-VASc score in predicting stroke recurrence in first-ever ischemic stroke survivors without atrial fibrillation / 南方医科大学学报

OBJECTIVE@#To test the performance of CHADS-VASc score in predicting stroke recurrence in first-ever ischemic stroke survivors without atrial fibrillation (AF).@*METHODS@#A total of 768 patients were included in this study, including 475 male (61.85%) and 293 female patients (38.15%) with a mean age of 61.52±12.59 years (17-90 years). The baseline information of the patients was collected by face-to-face questionnaire survey and electronic medical record review, and their follow-up information was collected by telephone follow-up once every 3 months. Chi-square test and Wilcoxon rank sum test were used to compare the baseline characteristics between the patients regularly followed up and those withdrawn from the study. The area under the ROC curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive likelihood ratio and other indicators of CHADS-VASc score were determined, and C-index based on Cox proportional hazards model was used to evaluate the performance of CHADS- VASc score in predicting the risk of stroke recurrence in patients at different time points during the follow-up.@*RESULTS@#The 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year recurrence rate of stroke was 10.59%, 20.45%, and 29.46% in these patients, respectively. The AUC value, Optimal Operating Point (OOP) and the corresponding positive likelihood ratios (LR+) for predicting stroke recurrence were 0.558 (95%: 0.492-0.624), 4.5, and 1.256 at 1 year; 0.574 (95%: 0.517-0.630), 4.5, and 1.397 at 3 years; and 0.604 (95%: 0.548-0.661), 4.5, and 1.655 at 5 years, respectively. Sensitivity analysis of congestive heart failure showed that the predictive effect of CHADS-VASc score was basically unchanged.@*CONCLUSIONS@#CHADS-VASc score can be used to predict the 3-year and 5-year risk of stroke recurrence in first-ever ischemic stroke survivors without AF. The score has a better prediction ability for long-term stroke recurrence, but the prediction value remains low, suggesting the need to further improve the score or establish a new score for predicting stroke recurrence.

Verification and evaluation of the prognostic models for extranodal natural killer / T-cell lymphoma, nasal type / 白血病·淋巴瘤

Objective To verify and evaluate the prognostic models for extranodal natural killer/T-cell lymphoma, nasal type (ENKL). Methods ENKL patients in the 105th Hospital of PLA from January 1990 to December 2015 were retrospectively analyzed, and patients were followed to the August 2016 through telephone and medical records. The models were evaluated by C-index, and the prognostic ability of each factor was assessed by survival curves. Results A total of 76 patients met the inclusion criteria, with a median age of 41.9 years old (range, 14-74 years old), all patients received chemotherapy, and 49 received radiation therapy. During the median observation time (37.0 months), 37 patients died in a median of 28.4 months. The prognostic factors of Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) score, level of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and Ann Arbor staging were the influencing factors of overall survival in the univariate survival analysis (all P<0.05), and only ECOG PS score was significant in the multivariate Cox regression (OR: 4.231, 95 ％ CI 2.172-8.240, P= 0.000). C-index of international prognostic index (IPI) was 0.541 (95 ％ CI 0.534- 0.555), and those of model with ECOG PS score, Ann Arbor staging, primary lesion invasion, LDH and age as the indicators and model with ECOG PS core, Ann Arbor staging, primary lesion invasion, LDH and hemoglobin as the indicators were both 0.726 (95 ％ CI 0.626-0.826). Conclusion Both model with ECOG PS score, Ann Arbor staging, primary lesion invasion, LDH and age as the indicators and model with ECOG PS core, Ann Arbor staging, primary lesion invasion, LDH and hemoglobin as the indicators can accurately predict the prognosis of patients with ENKL and are significantly better than the IPI model.

Nomogram for Predicting Survival for Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma

An accurate system for predicting the survival of patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSCC) will be useful for selecting appropriate therapies. A nomogram for predicting survival was constructed from 96 patients with primary OSCC who underwent surgical resection between January 1994 and June 2003 at the Yonsei Dental Hospital in Seoul, Korea. We performed univariate and multivariate Cox regression to identify survival prognostic factors. For the early stage patients group, the nomogram was able to predict the 5 and 10 year survival from OSCC with a concordance index of 0.72. The total point assigned by the nomogram was a significant factor for predicting survival. This nomogram was able to accurately predict the survival after treatment of an individual patient with OSCC and may have practical utility for deciding adjuvant treatment.