RESUMO
Objective To explore the risk factors for the occurrence of hypertension in middle-aged and elderly residents in China using the Cox regression analysis model and decision tree model, and compare the differences between the two methods. Methods The 2011-2015 China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study data were used. The study investigated the risk factors for hypertension using both a multivariate Cox regression model and a decision tree model. Results The results showed that the incidence rate of hypertension between 2011-2015 was 22.79%. Both the Cox regression model and decision tree model identified age, education level, body mass index, and diabetes as risk factors for hypertension. The Cox regression model also identified drinking status as a risk factor, while the decision tree model identified gender and marital status as additional risk factors. The area under the curve (AUC) suggested that the Cox regression model and decision tree model had comparable ability to predict hypertension. Conclusions The risk factors for hypertension include gender, age, education level, marital status, alcohol consumption, body mass index, and history of diabetes. The effectiveness of the hypertension prediction model established based on Cox regression model and decision tree model results is not different.