RESUMO
Background@#Diabetes Mellitus (DM) is a major public health concern, but with minimal data on how this affects the Lao population. @*Objective@#We aimed at predicting the impact of the burden of DM, and determine the effectiveness of DM screening techniques to reduce related mortality in Lao PDR.@*Methods@#A compartmentally deterministic model was created to reflect the demography in 2005 and 2015, and DM prevalence in 2015 of the Vientiane capital population. The parameters were retrieved from calibration and literature reviews. The model predicted demographic structure and DM in 2035. The effectiveness of DM screening tests, either Fasting Plasma Glucose (FPG) or glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), was examined in term of mortality reduction.@*Results@#By 2035, the Vientiane population is expected to have annual grow of 0.89% with higher proportion of more elderly people; those aged 45 years old and older are expected to account for 39.3% in 2035. Overall prevalence of DM was expected to rise from 9.65% in 2015 to 13.4% in 2035 as a result of the aging population. The model predicts that the prevalence of DM would double (28.42%) in those aged >60 years old by 2035. The mortality rate is expected to increase more than double from 890 in 2015 to 1,808 deaths per 100,000 people in 2035, with the highest rate in those with undiagnosed diabetes and those older than 60 years. Screening by FPG test at an initial age of 35 years old is estimated to reduce mortality by 17.93%, and 16.80% for initial age screening at 45 years. Screening by HbA1c test would slightly increase the mortality reduction by approximately 1.20% at both initial screening ages.@*Conclusion@#This mathematical modeling projected the steadily increase of prevalence and death related to DM over 30 years of simulation. Early screening by glycemia would reduce the mortality.
RESUMO
The 2011 Census has confirmed the ageing of the Jamaican population. The over 60-year old population has increased while the under 15-year old population has decreased. Other demographic changes of note include the largest increase being in the old-old who are predominantly female. The demographic changes when considered with the increase in chronic disease indicate the need for consideration of healthcare specifically targeting the needs for older persons including increased prevention, continuous medical management, long term care and caregiver support.
El censo de 2011 ha confirmado el envejecimiento de la población jamaicana. La población de más de 60 años de edad ha aumentado, mientras que la población por debajo de 15 años ha disminuido. Otros cambios demográficos notables incluyen un mayor aumento en el grupo de los ancianos mayores de 85 años, predominantemente femenino. Los cambios demográficos considerados junto con el aumento de las enfermedades crónicas indican la necesidad de tener en cuenta una atención de la salud dirigida específicamente a las necesidades de las personas mayores, que incluya mayor prevención, tratamiento médico continuo, así como apoyo a largo plazo a los cuidados y a los cuidadores de la salud.