Revisión histórica, distribución potencial y estado de conservación de la rata endémica de México Xenomys nelsoni (Rodentia: Cricetidae) / Historical review, potential distribution, and conservation of the Mexican endemic rat Xenomys nelsoni (Rodentia: Cricetidae)

Resumen Introducción: La Rata de Magdalena, Xenomys nelsoni, es un roedor endémico de México, de distribución restringida a las selvas bajas caducifolias densas, en una pequeña región de la costa del Pacífico mexicano. Es una especie poco conocida, catalogada como "En Peligro" de acuerdo con la Unión Internacional para la Conservación de la Naturaleza (IUCN). Este desconocimiento unido a la alta tasa de deforestación de su hábitat hace que su conservación sea prioritaria. Objetivo: Realizar un recuento histórico de los registros depositados en las colecciones científicas, generar mapas de distribución potencial y analizar el estado de conservación de la especie. Método: Los datos de ocurrencia de las especies se obtuvieron de la literatura y bases de datos digitales y se analizaron por décadas. Se utilizaron los programas GARP y MaxEnt para generar los modelos de nicho ecológico. La importancia de las variables en el modelo se estimó mediante un análisis Jackknife. Resultados: A lo largo de 129 años 19 recolectores registraron 69 ejemplares, de los cuales 65 están depositados en siete colecciones internacionales y una nacional. Aunque la especie sólo se ha recolectado en Jalisco y Colima, la distribución potencial de X. nelsoni incluye también el estado de Michoacán. De esta área estimada, sólo el 1.5 % se encuentra dentro de un Área Natural Protegida. Conclusiones: Los resultados de la distribución potencial podrían ser utilizados para verificar la presencia de la especie en lugares donde no ha sido recolectada como el norte de la Reserva de la Biosfera Chamela-Cuixmala y en algunas zonas de la provincia fisiográfica Costas del Sur en el estado de Michoacán. Es necesario incrementar los muestreos en regiones poco estudiadas predichas por el modelo y aumentar el área de protección.

Abstract Introduction: The Magdalena Rat, Xenomys nelsoni, is a rodent endemic to Mexico, whose distribution is restricted to dense tropical dry forests in a small region on the Pacific coast of Mexico. It is a poorly known species categorized as "Endangered" by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN). This lack of knowledge and the high rates of deforestation of its habitat makes its conservation a priority. Objective: To summarize the historical records deposited in scientific collections, to create potential distribution maps, and to analyze the conservation status of the species. Methods: We obtained species occurrence data from literature and digital databases, analyzing them by the decade. We used GARP and MaxEnt software to generate the ecological niche models. The importance of the variables in the model was estimated using the Jackknife technique. Results: Over 129 years, 19 collectors registered 69 specimens, of which 65 are deposited in one national and seven international collections. Although the species has only been collected in Jalisco and Colima, the potential distribution for X. nelsoni also includes the state of Michoacán. Of this estimated area, only 1.5 % is in a Protected Natural Area. Conclusions: The results of the potential distribution could be used to verify the presence of the species in places where it has not been collected, such as the northern part of the Chamela-Cuixmala Biosphere Reserve and in some areas of the physiographic province Costas del Sur in the state of Michoacán. It is needed to increase samplings in the least studied regions predicted by the model and expand the area of protection.

Predicting potential distribution and evaluating biotic interactions of threatened species: a case study of Discocactus ferricola (Cactaceae) / Prevendo a distribuição potencial e avaliando interações bióticas de espécies ameaçadas: um estudo de caso de Discocactus ferricola (Cactaceae)

Abstract: Information on distribution, number of populations, and biotic interactions are essential for assessing the threat status of species and to establish more effective conservation initiatives. Ecological niche modeling have been successfully applied to identify the potential distribution, even for rare species that have few recorded occurrence points. In this study, we evaluated the potential distribution and additionally generated the first data on the reproductive biology of Discocactus ferricola, due to its degree of threat and the absence of ecological data for that species. The potential distribution map highlighted areas with higher probability of occurrence of D. ferricola on the Residual Plateau of Maciço do Urucum located in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The occurrence of D. ferricola populations was limited to outcrops of flat ironstone (cangas) distributed in patches across the landscape, increasing the chances of serious threats, such as habitat loss due to mining and species extraction. We also found that D. ferricola is xenogamous. Therefore, in situ conservation actions must prioritize the maintenance of interactions with pollinators by preserving the flora and fauna of rocky outcrops and adjacent forests in areas of greater environmental suitability for D. ferricola. Our study highlights the use of ecological niche modeling and data on biotic interactions to evaluate species potential distribution, to guide new sampling efforts, and to assist conservation and management initiatives.

Resumo: Informações sobre distribuição, número de populações e interações bióticas são essenciais para avaliar o status de ameaça das espécies e estabelecer iniciativas de conservação mais eficazes. A modelagem de nicho ecológico tem sido aplicada com sucesso para identificar a distribuição potencial, mesmo para espécies raras que possuem poucos pontos de ocorrência registrados. Neste estudo, avaliamos a distribuição potencial e adicionalmente geramos os primeiros dados sobre a biologia reprodutiva de Discocactus ferricola, devido ao seu grau de ameaça e à ausência de dados ecológicos para essa espécie. O mapa de distribuição potencial destacou áreas com maior probabilidade de ocorrência de D. ferricola no Planalto Residual do Maciço do Urucum localizado em Mato Grosso do Sul, Brasil. A ocorrência de populações de D. ferricola foi limitada aos afloramentos ferruginosos planos (cangas) que são distribuídos em manchas pela paisagem, aumentando as chances de ameaças graves, como perda de habitat devido à mineração e extração da espécie. Também descobrimos que D. ferricola é xenogâmica. Portanto, ações de conservação in situ devem priorizar a manutenção das interações com os polinizadores através da preservação da flora e da fauna nos afloramentos rochosos e florestas adjacentes nas áreas de maior adequabilidade ambiental para D. ferricola. Nesse estudo, nós destacamos o uso da modelagem de nicho ecológico e de dados sobre interações bióticas para avaliar a distribuição potencial de espécies, orientar novos esforços de amostragem e auxiliar iniciativas de conservação e manejo.

Biogeografía del tomate Solanum lycopersicum var. cerasiforme (Solanaceae) en su centro de origen (sur de América) y de domesticación (México)

El tomate (Solanum lycopersicum) es una de las principales hortalizas en el mundo debido a las importantes ganancias económicas que genera su comercialización; sin embargo, a pesar de que la especie es ampliamente cultivada en el mundo, su diversidad genética se considera restringida. Esto hace que su resistencia a plagas y enfermedades en las variedades actualmente cultivadas sea baja. Existe la forma silvestre S. l. var ceraciforme que se distribuye desde Suramérica (centro de origen) hasta México (área de domesticación), específicamente en la vertiente del Golfo de México en Veracruz. Como objetivo, se quiso identificar patrones de diversificación ambiental con los que se pudiesen inferir procesos de adaptación de las poblaciones en el área de domesticación con respecto a su centro de origen. Asimismo, se planteó proponer medidas de conservación y rescate del tomate S. l. var. cerasiforme. Se realizaron modelos de nicho ecológico (MNE) con Maxent versión 3.4.1 (evaluados con AUC y ROC-parcial) para determinar la idoneidad de las condiciones ambientales, incluyendo proyecciones del centro de domesticación al área de origen y viceversa. Esto se realizó con base en ocho variables de temperatura y precipitación. Los registros de tomate fueron tomados de fuentes bibliográficas y trabajo de campo. Seguidamente, se realizó la prueba de comparación de nichos (equivalencia y similitud), propuesta por Broennimann et al. (2012), para evaluar la similitud de condiciones ambientales en ambas regiones. Posteriormente, se realizó un análisis de varianza seguido de una prueba de comparación de medias (Tukey, P ≤ 0.05) con las ocho variables ambientales utilizadas. Los valores de AUC (0.93 y 0.80) y ROC-parcial obtenidos (1.86 y 1.71; P = 0.0001) de los MNE muestran que fueron buenos modelos predictores. Se observó que en el centro de México existen condiciones ambientales similares a las del centro de origen, a diferencia de la vertiente del Golfo de México donde son diferentes. La prueba de equivalencia mostró que la comparación ambiental entre ambas regiones es menos equivalente que lo esperado por azar (P = 0.003). Mientras tanto, la otra prueba indica que la similitud que existe entre ambas regiones también se puede obtener por azar (P = 0.683). También, se encontraron diferencias significativas en tres variables de temperatura y precipitación. En conclusión, el centro de origen y de domesticación de S. l. var. cerasiforme tienen características ambientales en común a pesar de la distancia geográfica, pero existen zonas geográficas (vertiente del Golfo de México en Veracruz) en el área de domesticación con condiciones ambientales diferentes a las de su centro de origen y con un potencial importante como bancos de germoplasma.

The tomato (Solanum lycopersicum) is one of the main horticultural crops in the world because of the important economic benefits that its commercialization generates. Even though the species is widely cultivated in the world, it is susceptible to pests, diseases, and environmental stresses due to the loss of its genetic diversity. There is a wild form called S. l. var ceraciforme that is distributed from South America (its center of origin) to Mexico (its area of domestication), specifically on the slope of the Gulf of Mexico in Veracruz. Due to the large genetic diversity of these wild tomatoes, it is important to improve its crop. The objective of this investigation was to identify patterns of environmental diversification of the tomato, infer the processes of adaptation of the populations in the area of domestication with respect to their center of origin and propose measures of conservation and variation of S. l. var. cerasiforme. We generated two ecological niche models (MNE) with Maxent version 3.4.1 (evaluated with AUC and partial-ROC) to determine the suitability of environmental conditions including their respective projections from the domestication center to the area of origin and vice versa. We used eight variables of temperature and precipitation. Additionally, we included tomato records from bibliographical sources and fieldwork. We also used the niche comparison test (equivalency and similarity) proposed by Broennimann et al. (2012) to evaluate the similarity of environmental conditions in both regions. Subsequently, we carried out an analysis of variance followed by a mean comparison test (Tukey, P ≤ 0.05) with all environmental variables measured. The values of AUC (0.93 and 0.80) and partial-ROC (1.86 and 1.71, P = 0.0001) of the MNE showed that they were good predictive models. We observed that, in the center of Mexico, there are environmental conditions similar to those of the center of origin, unlike the slope of the Gulf of Mexico where they are different. The equivalency test showed that the environmental comparison between both regions is less similar than expected by chance (P = 0.003). The similarity test indicated that the existing similarity between both regions can also be obtained by chance (P = 0.683). We also found significant differences in three temperature and precipitation variables. In conclusion, we determined that the center of origin and domestication of S. l. var. cerasiforme has similar environmental characteristics despite the geographic distance; nevertheless, there are geographical zones (the Gulf of Mexico in Veracruz) in the area of domestication with different environmental conditions. Those places have the potential to contain valuable germplasms.

Climatically-mediated landcover change: impacts on Brazilian territory

ABSTRACT In the face of climate change threats, governments are drawing attention to policies for mitigating its effects on biodiversity. However, the lack of distribution data makes predictions at species level a difficult task, mainly in regions of higher biodiversity. To overcome this problem, we use native landcover as a surrogate biodiversity, because it can represent specialized habitat for species, and investigate the effects of future climate change on Brazilian biomes. We characterize the climatic niches of native landcover and use ecological niche modeling to predict the potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Our results highlight expansion of the distribution of open vegetation and the contraction of closed forests. Drier Brazilian biomes, like Caatinga and Cerrado, are predicted to expand their distributions, being the most resistant to climate change impacts. However, these would also be affected by losses of their closed forest enclaves and their habitat-specific or endemic species. Replacement by open vegetation and overall reductions are a considerable risk for closed forest, threatening Amazon and Atlantic forest biomes. Here, we evidence the impacts of climate change on Brazilian biomes, and draw attention to the necessity for management and attenuation plans to guarantee the future of Brazilian biodiversity.

Vegetation loss and the 2016 Oropouche fever outbreak in Peru

BACKGROUND Oropouche virus causes Oropouche fever, an arboviral disease transmitted mainly by midges of the genus Culicoides and Culex mosquitoes. Clinical presentation of Oropouche fever in humans includes fever, headache, rash, myalgia, and in rare cases spontaneous bleeding and aseptic meningitis. Landscape change has been proposed as a driver of Oropouche fever emergence. OBJECTIVE To investigate the landscape epidemiology of the Oropouche fever outbreak that began in April 2016 in Cusco, Peru. METHODS We used information of vegetation and multivariate spatial analyses including ecological niche modeling. Vegetation was characterised using16-day composite enhanced vegetation index (EVI) images at 500 m spatial resolution from the MODIS sensor carried by the Terra satellite. FINDINGS Cases were distributed across seven Peruvian districts in two provinces. La Concepcion was the province with most of the affected districts. EVI time series across 2000 to 2016 suggested a decline in the vegetation in sites with Oropouche fever cases before the epidemic. Our ecological niche modeling suggests that other areas in Junin, Apurimac, and Madre de Dios departments are at risk of Oropouche fever occurrence. MAIN CONCLUSIONS Our results may provide a guide for future fieldwork to test hypotheses regarding Oropouche fever emergence and habitat loss in tropical Latin America.

Trans-Amazon dispersal potential for Crotalus durissus during Pleistocene climate events / Potencial de dispersión trans-Amazónica de Crotalus durissus durante el Pleistoceno

Two disjunct distributional areas of Crotalus durissus (Neotropical rattlesnake) are in open habitats north and south of the Amazon Basin and are presently separated by humid rainforest habitats. We used ecological niche modeling to identify and investigate potential dispersal pathways for this species between the two areas during the late Pleistocene. Niches estimated for the two populations did not differ significantly. Our analyses indicated two possible, but a single most likely, potential routes of dispersal during the last glacial cycle. These results are important to understanding the history of Amazon Basin humid forest biotas, as they suggest agents of isolation among putative humid forest refugia in the form of dry forest and scrub, and associated biotas.

Actualmente existen dos áreas de distribución disyuntas de la serpiente de cascabel Crotalus durissus, afín a hábitats abiertos, al norte y al sur de la cuenca del Río Amazonas, separadas por selvas húmedas. Usamos técnicas de modelado de nicho ecológico para identificar corredores potenciales de dispersión para esta especie entre las dos áreas en el Pleistoceno tardío. Los nichos estimados para las poblaciones de cada una de las áreas de distribución no presentaron diferencias significativas. Nuestros análisis identificaron un corredor de dispersión más probable para esta especie durante el Último Máximo Glaciar. Estos resultados tienen implicaciones para el entendimiento de la historia de las biotas de las selvas húmedas del Amazonas, ya que sugieren causas de aislamiento entre refugios potenciales de selva húmeda, en la forma de selva seca y matorral.

Leishmaniasis transmission: distribution and coarse-resolution ecology of two vectors and two parasites in Egypt

Introduction: In past decades, leishmaniasis burden has been low across Egypt; however, changing environment and land use has placed several parts of the country at risk. As a consequence, leishmaniasis has become a particularly difficult health problem, both for local inhabitants and for multinational military personnel. Methods: To evaluate coarse-resolution aspects of the ecology of leishmaniasis transmission, collection records for sandflies and Leishmania species were obtained from diverse sources. To characterize environmental variation across the country, we used multitemporal Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2005-2011. Ecological niche models were generated using MaxEnt, and results were analyzed using background similarity tests to assess whether associations among vectors and parasites (i.e., niche similarity) can be detected across broad geographic regions. Results: We found niche similarity only between one vector species and its corresponding parasite species (i.e., Phlebotomus papatasi with Leishmania major), suggesting that geographic ranges of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis and its potential vector may overlap, but under distinct environmental associations. Other associations (e.g., P. sergenti with L. major) were not supported. Mapping suitable areas for each species suggested that northeastern Egypt is particularly at risk because both parasites have potential to circulate. Conclusions: Ecological niche modeling approaches can be used as a first-pass assessment of vector-parasite interactions, offering useful insights into constraints on the geography of transmission patterns of leishmaniasis. .

Modeling the potential distribution of the invasive golden mussel Limnoperna fortunei in the Upper Paraguay River system using limnological variables

The invasive golden mussel, Limnoperna fortunei (Dunker, 1857), was introduced into the La Plata River estuary and quickly expanded upstream to the North, into the Paraguay and Paraná rivers. An ecological niche modeling approach, based on limnological variables, was used to predict the expansion of the golden mussel in the Paraguay River and its tributaries. We used three approaches to predict the geographic distribution: 1) the spatial distribution of calcium concentration and the saturation index for calcium carbonate (calcite); 2) the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) model; and the 3) Maximum Entropy Method (Maxent) model. Other limnological variables such as temperature, dissolved oxygen, pH, and Total Suspended Solids (TSS) were used in the latter two cases. Important tributaries of the Paraguay River such as the Cuiabá and Miranda/Aquidauana rivers exhibit high risk of invasion, while lower risk was observed in the chemically dilute waters of the middle basin where shell calcification may be limited by low calcium concentrations and carbonate mineral undersaturation.

A espécie invasora mexilhão dourado, Limnoperna fortunei (Dunker, 1857), foi introduzida na bacia do Rio da Prata e rapidamente se expandiu em direção ao norte, nos rios Paraguai e Paraná. A modelagem de nicho ecológico com base em variáveis limnológicas foi utilizada para prever a expansão do mexilhão dourado na bacia do Alto Paraguai. Foram usados três métodos para prever a distribuição espacial do mexilhão dourado: 1) a distribuição espacial da concentração de cálcio e o índice de saturação do carbonato de cálcio (calcita); 2) a modelagem utilizando o algoritmo Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP); e 3) a modelagem usando o Maximum Entropy Method (Maxent). Outras variáveis como temperatura da água, oxigênio dissolvido, pH e sólidos totais suspensos também foram utilizadas na modelagem. Importantes tributários do Rio Paraguai como Cuiabá e Miranda exibem alto risco de invasão, e menores riscos foram observados para águas mais diluídas na parte média da bacia, onde a calcificação das conchas pode ser limitada pela baixa concentração do cálcio e dos carbonatos minerais abaixo do nível de saturação.