Excesso de óbitos classificados com códigos garbage na pandemia de Covid-19, no estado da Paraíba / Excess of deaths classified with garbage codes in the COVID-19 pandemic / Exceso de muertes clasificados con códigos garbage en la pandemia COVID-19

Resumo No cenário de calamidade assistido durante a pandemia de Covid-19, o ato de definir a causa básica de um óbito não foi trivial e o aumento da utilização dos códigos garbage (códigos mal definidos ou pouco específicos) traz preocupação em relação à qualidade da informação sobre as causas de morte nos estados do Brasil. Constatou-se um aumento significativo do número de óbitos no período pandêmico no estado da Paraíba, localizado na região Nordeste do Brasil, situação que se assemelhou ao contexto nacional. Em 2020 ocorreram 31.107 óbitos na Paraíba, enquanto no período de 2015 a 2019 foi identificada uma média de 27.000 óbitos. O objetivo do presente estudo é identificar e mensurar o excesso de óbitos classificados com códigos garbage em 2020, no estado da Paraíba, durante a pandemia de Covid-19. As séries temporais de óbitos foram obtidas do Painel de Monitoramento da Mortalidade por Causas Básicas Inespecíficas ou Incompletas (garbage codes) do Ministério da Saúde, para todos os meses de 2015 a 2020. Foram calculadas as projeções de óbitos totais e dos óbitos por códigos garbage (CG). O cálculo do excesso da proporção de óbitos classificados por códigos garbage no estado da Paraíba, em 2020, resultou em 8,58%, destacando-se o mês de junho com o maior valor (19,42%). Espera-se contribuir para avanços no conhecimento da realidade da qualidade da informação da notificação dos óbitos em uma área do país que almeja avanços nesse sentido e evidenciar a necessidade da investigação em outras localidades do Brasil.

Abstract In the disaster scenario witnessed during the pandemic caused by COVID-19, the act of defining the underlying cause of a death was no trivial matter and the increased use of Garbage Codes (poorly defined or not very specific codes) raises concerns regarding the quality of the information on causes of death in the states of Brazil. There was a significant increase in the number of deaths during the pandemic in the state of Paraíba, located in the Northeast region of Brazil, a situation similar to the national context. There were 31,107 deaths in 2020 in Paraíba, while an average of 27,000 deaths were identified for the period 2015 to 2019. Our goal was to identify and measure the excess of deaths classified with Garbage Codes in the COVID-19 pandemic in the geographic space of the state of Paraíba in 2020. The time series of deaths were obtained from the Mortality Monitoring Panel for Unspecific or Incomplete Basic Causes (Garbage Codes) of the Ministry of Health, for all months of the years 2015 to 2020. Projections of total deaths and deaths by Garbage Codes (GC) were calculated. The calculation of the excess proportion of deaths classified by Garbage Codes in the state of Paraíba resulted in 8.58%, highlighting the month of June 2020, which reached the maximum value equal to 19.42%. We expect to contribute to advance knowledge regarding the current reality of quality information on death notifications in an area of the country that seeks to make progress in this direction and to highlight the need for research in other locations in Brazil.

Resumen En el escenario de desastre que se vivió durante la pandemia de COVID-19, definir la causa subyacente de una muerte no fue baladí y el aumento del uso de códigos garbage (códigos mal definidos o poco específicos) genera preocupaciones acerca la calidad de la información sobre las causas de muerte en los estados de Brasil. En cuanto al aumento del número de muertes en el período de la pandemia en el estado de Paraíba, en la región Nordeste de Brasil, la situación fue similar al contexto nacional: 31.107 muertes en 2020, mientras que durante el período 2015-2019 el promedio fue de 27.000 muertes. El objetivo de este trabajo fue identificar y medir el exceso de muertes clasificadas con códigos Garbage en la pandemia de COVID-19 en el estado de Paraíba en 2020. Las series temporales de defunciones se obtuvieron del Panel de Seguimiento de Mortalidad por Causas Básicas Inespecíficas o Incompletas del Ministerio de Salud, para todos los meses de 2015 a 2020. Se calcularon proyecciones de muertes totales y muertes por códigos basura, para los que el cálculo de la proporción de exceso de muertes resultó en 8,58 %, con un valor de 19,42 % durante junio. Se espera contribuir a la calidad de la información sobre las notificaciones de muerte en un área del país que busca avances en esa dirección y resaltar la necesidad de investigaciones en otras localidades de Brasil.

Más sobre el exceso de muertes por la pandemia de COVID-19

Introducción: En las últimas semanas de 2022 aparecen nuevas informaciones acerca del exceso de muertes durante la pandemia de COVID-19 en 2020 y 2021 en múltiples naciones. Objetivo: Comentar los aspectos de mayor interés en las últimas informaciones publicadas. Métodos: Análisis de documentos sobre COVID-19 publicados en 2020 y 2021 y síntesis de la información recopilada. Resultados: Un importante estudio de la OMS estima un exceso de muertes de 14,83 (13,23 ± 16,58) millones más de las esperadas en todo el mundo, durante 2020 y 2021. Estos estimados son más conservadores que los de otras instituciones que estimaron entre 16 y 18,2 millones. El informe de OMS estima que cuatro de cada cinco países con mayores excesos de muertes ocurren en estados de "medianos ingresos", con algunos de los peores 25 resultados en América Latina (Cuba no está incluida). No se documenta todavía lo ocurrido durante 2022 que ya termina. Conclusiones: En el futuro se debe mantener la vigilancia de la evolución de las cifras de mortalidad y la estructura por causas de muerte en las poblaciones.

Introduction: In the last weeks of 2022, new information appears about the excess deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 in multiple nations. Objective: To comment on the aspects of greatest interest in those cited documents. Methods: Analysis of documents on COVID-19 was conducted on those published in 2020 and 2021 and synthesis of the information collected. Results: A major WHO study estimates an excess of deaths of 14.83 (13.23 ± 16.58) million more than expected worldwide, during 2020 and 2021. These estimates are more conservative than those of other institutions that estimated between 16 and 18.2 million. The WHO report estimates that four out of five countries with the highest excess deaths occur in "middle-income" states, with some of the worst outcomes in Latin America. Cuba is not included. What happened during 2022, which is already ending, has not yet been documented. Conclusions: It is considered that monitoring of the evolution of mortality figures and the structure by causes of death in populations should be maintained in the future.

Unexpected Single-year-of-age Changes in the Elderly Mortality Rate in England and Wales During 2012.

Aims: To evaluate single-year-of-age specificity in deaths in England and Wales associated with a large, unexpected and unexplained increase in 2012. To demonstrate that this type of event has occurred previously across the entire UK. To demonstrate that infectious-like spread at a regional level in England may be involved. Study Design: Longitudinal study of annual (calendar year) deaths (all-cause mortality) in the United Kingdom and England and Wales using publically available statistics available from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Place and Duration of Study: United Kingdom, England & Wales, local authorities within England & Wales covering a variety of time spans designed to illustrate various key points. Methodology: Deaths between 1974 and 2012 in the United Kingdom. Live population and deaths for residents of England and Wales and of English local authorities. Calculation of single-year-of-age death rates in 2011 and 2012 which are the years before and after the large and unexpected increase in deaths. Results: A recurring series of infectious-like events can be demonstrated which prior to 2000 had been largely assumed to be due to influenza epidemics. The event in 2012 shows specificity for the elderly particularly above age 75, which is somewhat expected given increased susceptibility to the environment as we age. The single year of age mortality rate shows saw tooth behavior for deaths in 2011 and even more exaggerated saw tooth behavior is seen in the difference between 2011 and 2012. Similar saw tooth behavior is seen in the difference between single-year-of-age standardized admissions via the emergency department in England between 2008 and 2012. The infectious spread across England behind this phenomenon is illustrated at regional level and probably results in a 40% underestimation of the saw tooth behavior. Conclusion: The saw tooth behavior is known to be associated with what is called ‘original antigenic sin’. Hence the saw tooth behavior appears to indicate that the unexpected high elderly mortality in 2012 was due to an outbreak of an infectious agent which has multiple strains. This behavior confirms the results of other studies investigating simultaneous increase in medical admissions to hospital during the time that the deaths increase. The ubiquitous herpes virus, cytomegalovirus may be involved, although at the moment this virus provides a prototype for the sort of immune modulating agent that may be responsible. The use of five year age bands to age standardize mortality and medical admission rates may be subject to misleading outcomes where the periodicity behind these outbreaks and their cumulative effect on immune mediated responses is out of synchrony with the basic saw tooth behavior seen in both mortality and admission rates. This has major implication to the calculation of hospital standardized mortality rates (HSMR).