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Objective To analyze the probability of premature mortality and temporal trend caused by four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Fenghua District of Ningbo City from 2010 to 2015, and to provide data support for achieving Health China 2030 reduction target. Methods The data of deaths were from chronic disease surveillance information management system in Zhejiang Province from 2010 to 2015. According to the life-table method of calculating premature mortality probability, the premature mortality of four main NCDs by different gender, years and regions was analyzed and compared. Taking "Health China 2030" goal of reduction 30％ as the standard for the probability of premature mortality caused by major NCDs to evaluate the descent space of premature mortality. Results The probability of premature mortality of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases and cancer was higher than that of chronic respiratory disease and diabetes, and the probability of premature mortality in men was higher than that in women. The top three villages and towns in terms of probability of prematuremortality caused by four main NCDs were Dayan town, Songao town and Xiwu Street in turn. From 2010 to 2015, the probabilities of premature mortality in four main NCDs were all declined consistently in Fenghua District of Ningbo City (P<0.05), and the total of four main NCDs decreased from 12.05％ to 10.21％. The probability of premature mortality of four main NCDs declined by 3.26％ a year on average with higher decreasing in women (6.56％) than that in men (1.32％) . Compared with 2015 baseline, the premature mortality of four NCDs in men would decrease by 4.11％ to reach 2030 goal (9.60％), and the probability of premature mortality four main NCDs in women would decrease by 1.96％ to reach the 2030 goal (4.58％) . Conclusions The probabilities of premature mortality in four main NCDs were all declined consistently in Fenghua District of Ningbo City. Compared with women, the men had higher probabilities and declined slower, and there were significant different in probabilities of premature mortality and their change speed among villages and towns.
RESUMO
Objective@#To investigate the current status, temporal trend and achieving Health China 2030 reduction target of probability of premature mortality caused by four main non-communicable diseases (NCDs) including cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, tumour, diabetes, and chronic respiratory disease in China both at national and provincial level during 1990 to 2015.@*Methods@#Using the results of Global Burden of Disease study 2015 (GBD 2015), according to the method of calculating premature mortality probability recommended by WHO, the current status and temporal trend by different gender from 1990 to 2015 were calculated, analyzed, and compared. Referring to " Health China 2030" target of reduction 30% of probability of premature mortality caused by major NCDs, we evaluated the difficulty of achieving the reduction target among provinces (not including Taiwan).@*Results@#From 1990 to 2015, the probabilities of premature mortality in cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, tumour, and chronic respiratory disease were all declined consistently for both men and women in China, the total of four main NCDs decreased from 30.69% to 18.54% with higher decreasing in women (from 25.97% to 12.40%) than that in men (from 34.94% to 24.19%). In 2015, the top five provinces in terms of probability of premature mortality caused by four main NCDs were Qinghai (28.81%), Tibet (25.88%), Guizhou (24.67%), Guangxi (23.56%), and Xinjiang (23.21%) in turn, while the top five provinces with the lowest probability were Shanghai (8.40%), Beijing (9.39%), Hong Kong (10.10%), Macao (10.31%), and Zhejiang (11.70%). If achieving the " Health China 2030" target, the probabilities of premature mortality in Qinghai and Tibet with the highest probability should decline to about 20.17%, and 18.12%, respectively in 2030, while 5.88%, and 6.57% in Shanghai and Beijing, respectively. From 1990 to 2015, the probability of premature mortality of four main NCDs declined by 2.00% a year on average, the top five provinces with the fastest decline were Beijing (3.48%), Shanghai (3.24%), Zhejiang (2.81%), Fujian (2.75%), and Guangdong (2.67%), and 11 provinces including these five provinces could achieve the " Health China 2030" target by the usual rate of decline, while other 22 provinces could not achieve the target, they need greater rate of decline in order to achieve the target.@*Conclusion@#From 1990 to 2015, the probabilities of premature mortality of four main NCDs were declined consistently in China both at national and provincial level, compared with women, the men had higher probabilities and declined slower, there were significant different in probabilities of premature mortality and their change speed among provinces. Based on the results from 1990 to 2015, there were about two thirds of the provinces, which the task of achieving the Health China 2030 target will be daunting.