RESUMO
A prolonged hospital length of stay during an episode of exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is a condition that increases the risk of suffering associated medical complications. Objective: The objective of this study was to determine the factors associated with a prolonged hospital length of stay in exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease through a prediction model. Materials and Methods: In a cross-sectional study we gathered the data of the medical records of a hospital located in the Eastern region of Colombia, between years 2012 and 2014. We carried out a descriptive, bivariate and multivariate analysis. Results: A total of 212 patients were included in this study. 61.32% showed a prolonged hospital length of stay. We found a significant statistical association between the prolonged hospital stay and the independent variables of the bivariate analysis: dyspnea (OR [Odds Ratio]: 2.87 p = 0.04), fever (OR: 2; p = 0.02), inpatient oxygen (OR: 2.34, p = 0.003), inpatient anticholinergics (OR: 2.91, p = 0.002), inpatient antibiotic (OR: 2.25, p= 0.004), segs (OR: 1.02, p= 0.01) and lymphocytes (OR: 0.95, p = 0.003). The predictive model had a p value of 0.4950 in the analysis of goodness (Pearson Test) and a p value of 0.2689 in the goodness of fit test (Hosmer-Lemeshow Test), indicating an adequate fit. Also, the model showed an area under the curve of 0.6588. Conclusions: Our prediction model included the following variables: age, anticholinergics and segs, for their significant association. It has an adequate fit and a good pattern of prediction.