Analysis of Related Factors Affecting the Risk Assessment of Death during Hospitalization of Extremely Low Birth Weight Infants / 中山大学学报(医学科学版)

ObjectiveTo explore the influencing factors of different scores on predicting death risk of extremely low birth weight infants （ELBWI）. MethodsA total of 186 cases of ELBWI admitted by the Children's Hospital affiliated to Nanjing Medical University and the Lishui Branch of the Affiliated Zhongda Hospital of Southeast University were admitted from January 1， 2019 to January 1， 2021， and 125 ELBWIs were finally included after screening by inclusion and exclusion criteria. There were 47 cases in the death group and 78 cases in the survival group. General data and the items of score for neonatal acute physiology version Ⅱ （SNAP-Ⅱ）， simplified version of the score for neonatal acute physiology perinatal extension （SNAPPE-Ⅱ）， clinical risk index for babies （CRIB）， clinical risk index for babies Ⅱ （CRIB-Ⅱ） and the national critical illness score （NCIS） were collected. Univariate and multivariate analysis was performed and nomogram was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curve （ROC）. ResultsIt was found that systolic blood pressure， maximum inhaled oxygen concentration， BE value and birth weight were important factors in ELBWI mortality risk assessment ［systolic blood pressure OR： 0.968， 95%CI： 0.938-0.999， P=0.043； maximum inhaled oxygen concentration OR： 1.020， 95%CI： 1.006-1.034， P=0.006； BE OR： 0.868， 95%CI： 0.786-0.959， P=0.005； birth weight OR： 0.994， 95%CI： 0.991-0.997， P=0.000］. ROC showed that the area under the curve of the above four variables is 0.71， and the 95% confidence interval is 0.610-0.799， which is better than CRIB score. ConclusionLower systolic blood pressure， higher inhaled oxygen concentration， higher BE and lower birthweight are important influencing factors to predict the death risk of ELBWI. The above four items should be included in the newly developed score assessment to obtain a more effective ELBWI prediction system.

Predictive value of six critical illness scores for 28-day death risk in comprehensive and specialized intensive care unit patients based on MIMIC-Ⅳ database / 中华危重病急救医学

Objective:To explore the basic characteristics of various types of intensive care unit (ICU) patients and the predictive value of six common disease severity scores in critically ill patients on the first day on the 28-day death risk.Methods:The general information, disease severity scores [acute physiology score Ⅲ (APSⅢ), Oxford acute disease severity (OASIS) score, Logistic organ dysfunction score (LODS), simplified acute physiology score Ⅱ (SAPSⅡ), systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) score and sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score], prognosis and other indicators of critically ill patients admitted from 2008 to 2019 were extracted from Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-Ⅳ 2.0 (MIMIC-Ⅳ 2.0). The receiver operator characteristic curve (ROC curve) of six critical illness scores for 28-day death risk of patients in various ICU, and the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was calculated, the optimal Youden index was used to determine the cut-off value, and the AUC of various ICU was verified by Delong method.Results:A total of 53 150 critically ill patients were enrolled, with medical ICU (MICU) accounted for the most (19.25%, n = 10 233), followed by cardiac vascular ICU (CVICU) with 17.78% ( n = 9 450), and neurological ICU (NICU) accounted for the least (6.25%, n = 3 320). The patients in coronary care unit (CCU) were the oldest [years old: 71.79 (60.27, 82.33)]. The length of ICU stay in NICU was the longest [days: 2.84 (1.51, 5.49)] and accounted for the highest proportion of total length of hospital stay [63.51% (34.61%, 97.07%)]. The patients in comprehensive ICU had the shortest length of ICU stay [days: 1.75 (0.99, 3.05)]. The patients in CVICU had the lowest proportion of length of ICU stay to total length of hospital stay [27.69% (18.68%, 45.18%)]. The six scores within the first day of ICU admission in NICU patients were lower than those in the other ICU, while APSⅢ, LODS, OASIS, and SOFA scores in MICU patients were higher than those in the other ICU. SAPⅡ and SIRS scores were both the highest in CVICU, respectively. In terms of prognosis, MICU patients had the highest 28-day mortality (14.14%, 1 447/10 233), while CVICU patients had the lowest (2.88%, 272/9 450). ROC curve analysis of the predictive value of each score on the 28-day death risk of various ICU patients showed that, the predictive value of APSⅢ, LODS, and SAPSⅡ in comprehensive ICU were higher [AUC and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were 0.84 (0.83-0.85), 0.82 (0.81-0.84), and 0.83 (0.82-0.84), respectively]. The predictive value of OASIS, LODS, and SAPSⅡ in surgical ICU (SICU) were higher [AUC and 95% CI were 0.80 (0.79-0.82), 0.79 (0.78-0.81), and 0.79 (0.77-0.80), respectively]. The predictive value of APSⅢ and SAPSⅡ in MICU were higher [AUC and 95% CI were 0.84 (0.82-0.85) and 0.82 (0.81-0.83), respectively]. The predictive value of APSⅢ and SAPSⅡ in CCU were higher [AUC and 95% CI were 0.86 (0.85-0.88) and 0.85 (0.83-0.86), respectively]. The predictive value of LODS and SAPSⅡ in trauma ICU (TICU) were higher [AUC and 95% CI were 0.83 (0.82-0.83) and 0.83 (0.82-0.84), respectively]. The predictive value of OASIS and SAPSⅡ in NICU were higher [AUC and 95% CI were 0.83 (0.80-0.85) and 0.81 (0.78-0.83), respectively]. The predictive value of APSⅢ, LODS, and SAPSⅡ in CVICU were higher [AUC and 95% CI were 0.84 (0.83-0.85), 0.81 (0.80-0.82), and 0.78 (0.77-0.78), respectively]. Conclusions:For the patients in comprehensive ICU, MICU, CCU, and CVICU, APSⅢ or SAPSⅡ can be applied for predicting 28-day death risk. For the patients in SICU and NICU, OASIS or SAPSⅡ can be applied to predict 28-day death risk. For the patients in TICU, SAPSⅡ or LODS can be applied for predicting 28-day death risk. For CVICU patients, APSⅢ or LODS can be applied to predict 28-day death risk.

Comparison of different neonatal illness severity scores in predicting mortality risk of extremely low birth weight infants / 浙江大学学报·医学版

To compare different illness severity scores in predicting mortality risk of extremely low birth weight infants (ELBWI). From January 1st, 2019 to January 1st, 2020, all ELBWI admitted in the Children's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Nanjing Maternity and Child Health Care Hospital and the First Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical University were included in the study. ELBWI with admission age ≥1 h, gestational age ≥37 weeks and incomplete data required for scoring were excluded. The clinical data were collected, neonatal critical illness score (NCIS), score for neonatal acute physiology version Ⅱ (SNAP-Ⅱ), simplified version of the score for neonatal acute physiology perinatal extension (SNAPPE-Ⅱ), clinical risk index for babies (CRIB) and CRIB-Ⅱ were calculated. The scores of the fatal group and the survival group were compared, and the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of the above illness severity scores for the mortality risk of ELBWI. Pearson correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation between illness scores and birth weight, illness scores and gestational age. A total of 192 ELBWI were finally included, of whom 114 cases survived (survival group) and 78 cases died (fatal group). There were significant differences in birth weight, gestational age and Apgar scores between fatal group and survival group (all <0.01). There were significant differences in NCIS, SNAP-Ⅱ, SNAPPE-Ⅱ, CRIB and CRIB-Ⅱ between fatal group and survival group (all <0.01). The CRIB had a relatively higher predictive value for the mortality risk. Its area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.787, the sensitivity was 0.678, the specificity was 0.804, and the Youden index was 0.482. The scores of NCIS, SNAP-Ⅱ, SNAPPE-Ⅱ, CRIB and CRIB-Ⅱ were significantly correlated with birth weight and gestational age (all <0.05). The correlation coefficients of CRIB-Ⅱ and CRIB with birth weight and gestational age were relatively large, and the correlations coefficients of NCIS with birth weight and gestational age were the smallest (0.191 and 0.244, respectively). Among these five illness severity scores, CRIB has better predictive value for the mortality risk in ELBWI. NCIS, which is widely used in China, has relatively lower sensitivity and specificity, and needs to be further revised.

The Role of Oliguria and the Absence of Fluid Administration and Balance Information in Illness Severity Scores / 대한구급학회지

Urinary examination has formed part of patient assessment since the earliest days of medicine. Current definitions of oliguria are essentially arbitrary, but duration and intensity of oliguria have been associated with an increased risk of mortality, and this risk is not completely attributable to the development of concomitant acute kidney injury (AKI) as defined by changes in serum creatinine concentration. The increased risk of death associated with the development of AKI itself may be modified by directly or indirectly by progressive fluid accumulation, due to reduced elimination and increased fluid administration. None of the currently extant major illness severity scoring systems or outcome prediction models use modern definitions of AKI or oliguria, or any values representative of fluid volumes variables. Even if a direct relationship with mortality is not observed, then it is possible that fluid balance or fluid volume variables mediate the relationship between illness severity and mortality in the renal and respiratory physiological domains. Fluid administration and fluid balance may then be an important, easily modifiable therapeutic target for future investigation. These relationships require exploration in large datasets before being prospectively validated in groups of critically ill patients from differing jurisdictions to improve prognostication and mortality prediction.

The Role of Oliguria and the Absence of Fluid Administration and Balance Information in Illness Severity Scores / 대한중환자의학회지

Urinary examination has formed part of patient assessment since the earliest days of medicine. Current definitions of oliguria are essentially arbitrary, but duration and intensity of oliguria have been associated with an increased risk of mortality, and this risk is not completely attributable to the development of concomitant acute kidney injury (AKI) as defined by changes in serum creatinine concentration. The increased risk of death associated with the development of AKI itself may be modified by directly or indirectly by progressive fluid accumulation, due to reduced elimination and increased fluid administration. None of the currently extant major illness severity scoring systems or outcome prediction models use modern definitions of AKI or oliguria, or any values representative of fluid volumes variables. Even if a direct relationship with mortality is not observed, then it is possible that fluid balance or fluid volume variables mediate the relationship between illness severity and mortality in the renal and respiratory physiological domains. Fluid administration and fluid balance may then be an important, easily modifiable therapeutic target for future investigation. These relationships require exploration in large datasets before being prospectively validated in groups of critically ill patients from differing jurisdictions to improve prognostication and mortality prediction.

La administración cuantitativa del riesgo financiero en la provisión de un plan de salud / Quantitative Management of Financial Risk in Supplying a Health Plan / A administração quantitativa do risco financeiro na provisão de um plano de saúde

El diseño del sistema de seguridad social en salud y su efectiva implementación es uno de los más grandes retos de la sociedad, y a su vez es la principal garantía del goce efectivo del derecho a la salud. Un gran desafío de estos sistemas es la administración del riesgo financiero implícito en la provisión de los servicios de salud. En este documento de investigación se explica en qué medida este desafío se puede enmarcar dentro de un problema de administración cuantitativa de los riesgos financieros. Si bien el uso de estas herramientas no es nuevo en el diseño del sistema de seguridad social en salud colombiano, es importante hacer claridad sobre el alcance que han tenido, las posibles mejoras que se les puedan hacer y los desafíos en la gestión de estos riesgos, implícitos en la reforma actual de la institucionalidad del sistema.

The design and effective implementation of health security are one of the biggest challenges of society and, at the same time, it is the main way to guarantee the effective enjoyment of the right to health. A great challenge of these systems is managing the financial risk implicit in supplying health services. This research document explains to what extent this challenge can be framed within a quantitative management of financial risk problem. Although the use of these tools is not a novelty in the design of the health security system in Colombia, it is important to clarify their reach, the possible improvements that might be performed on them, and the challenges in the management of these risks, implicit to the current reform of the institutionality of the system.

O desenho do sistema de provisão social em saúde e sua efetiva implementação é um dos mais grandes desafios da sociedade e, por sua vez, a principal garantia do usufruto efetivo do direito à saúde. Um grande desafio destes sistemas é a administração do risco financeiro implícito na provisão dos serviços de saúde. Neste documento de pesquisa explica-se em qual medida este desafio pode-se enquadrar dentro de um problema de gestão quantitativa dos riscos financeiros. Bem que o uso destas ferramentas não é novo no desenho do sistema colombiano de segurança social em saúde, é importante esclarecer o escopo que teriam os possíveis melhoramentos que pudessem se fazer e os desafios na gestão destes riscos, implícitos na reforma atual da institu-cionalidade do sistema.

Comparison between several illness severity scores for neonates / 国际儿科学杂志

Neonatal illness severity score is a scoring system for assessing severity of illness,predicting mortality and guiding clinical work in neonatal intensive care units.It plays an important role in the progressive development of neonatology.This article introduces and compares several illness severity scores commonly used in the world.Compared with score for neonatal acute physiology ( SNAP),score for neonatal acute physiology perinatal extension(SNAPPE) and our country's neonatal illness severity score,cinical risk index for Babies ( CRIB ),score for neonatal acute physiology version Ⅱ ( SNAP-Ⅱ),simplified version of the score for neonatal acute physiology (SNAPPE-Ⅱ) and clinical risk index for babies-revised (CRIB-Ⅱ) simplify the variables,weight the items scientifically,cost less time and predict the motality risk reliably.In conclusion,CRIB,SNAP-Ⅱ,SNAPPE-Ⅱ and CRIB-Ⅱ have better practicability and need to be promoted.