Epidemiological analysis and prediction of varicella in Liaoning, 2006-2021 / 中国热带医学

@#Abstract: Objective　By collecting and sorting the information of varicella cases reported in Liaoning Province from 2006 to 2021, the epidemiological characteristics were analyzed, and the monthly incidence data were predicted, so as to explore the prevention and control strategy of varicella disease in Liaoning Province. Methods　By collecting the characteristic information of varicella cases in Liaoning Province, epidemiological analysis was carried out on the regional, population, and temporal characteristics of varicella incidence. The monthly incidence data of varicella were fitted with Eviews software, seasonal ARIMA model was used for modeling, and models were selected according to SC and AIC. After modeling, the model was used to predict the incidence data in 2022. Results　The incidence rate of varicella in Liaoning Province has increased in recent years. The onset time was "bimodal distribution", with the main peak occurring from November to January of the next year and the secondary peak occurring from May to June. Since 2019, the onset age has shifted backward. From the original 0-<10 age group with the highest incidence rate, it shifted to the 10-<20 age group with the highest incidence rate. From 2006 to 2021, the incidence of varicella mainly concentrated in people aged 0 to <40 years old, and the incidence rate of the population over 40 years old showed a cliff-like decline. The incidence of chickenpox was higher in the central region of Liaoning Province, such as Shenyang, Dalian, Anshan and Panjin, and relatively low in Huludao, Jinzhou, Fuxin and Liaoyang. The distribution of the population was mainly students, followed by kindergartens and scattered children. ARIMA model of monthly incidence data was established by software as ARIMA (1, 0, 1) (1, 1, 1)12. Conclusions　The incidence rate of varicella in Liaoning Province has been rising in recent years. The incidence is obviously seasonal, and the age group of the affected population has moved backward. It is predicted that the incidence will continue to increase in 2022. The prevention and control of varicella should still be the current key work. In order to reduce the population incidence rate, two-dose vaccination strategies should be vigorously promoted the implementation of the, and the inclusion of varicella vaccine in the immunization program should be achieved as soon as possible.

Study on cost-utility threshold based on the preference of population in Liaoning province / 中国药房

OBJECTIVE To study the cost-utility threshold （WTP/Q） based on the preference of the population in Liaoning province with willingness-to-pay（WTP） survey method， and to provide reference for decision-making. METHODS Using the method of questionnaire survey， quota sampling combined with snowball sampling were used to conduct telephone interviews with the general population in Liaoning province， collect data and analyze it. Probit regression combined with generalized linear model was used to analyze the relevant factors affecting WTP/Q. RESULTS A total of 755 general people were recruited. The WTP/Q of Liaoning population was 119 175 yuan，the average WTP/Q for improving the quality of life was 84 902 yuan， and the average WTP/Q for extending the survival period was 188 005 yuan. The analysis of influential factors showed that the older the age， the lower the probability of people purchasing medical interventions； the higher the education level and income， the greater the WTP/ Q； at the same time， the physical feelings of the interviewee， such as pain and depression， could also affect the WTP/Q results； compared with the scenario of improving quality of life， the WTP/Q for the extended survival period was higher. CONCLUSIONS The WTP/Q of Liaoning province based on the WTP survey method is about 2.07 times of the per capita gross domestic product of Liaoning province in the same period. The WTP/Q for extending survival period is about 2.21 times that of improving the quality of life. Therefore， interventions to improve quality of life and to extend the survival period need to be treated differently， in measurement or decision-making.

Comparison between Liaoning scoring system and three other non-invasive scoring systems in the prediction of high-risk esophageal varices and hemorrhage or re-hemorrhage in patients with liver cirrhosis / 中华消化内镜杂志

Objective:To compare the value of Liaoning scoring system, model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), model for end-stage liver disease-Na (MELD-Na) and Blatchford score in predicting high-risk esophageal varices (EVs), hemorrhage or re-hemorrhage within 1 year and blood transfusion treatment in cirrhotic patients.Methods:Clinical data of 170 patients with esophageal varices confirmed by endoscopy from January 2018 to September 2019 were recorded. Liaoning score, MELD, MELD-Na score and Blatchford score were calculated when the first endoscopy was performed. These patients were followed up, and hemorrhage or re-hemorrhage within 1 year was recorded. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn and the area under curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the accuracy of 4 scoring systems in predicting high-risk EVs, hemorrhage or re-hemorrhage within 1 year after the first endoscopy and blood transfusion. Cut-off values were obtained, and groups divided by cut-off values were compared for the proportion of high-risk EVs and hemorrhage or re-hemorrhage.Results:The cut-off value of high-risk EVs in patients with cirrhosis predicted by Liaoning score was 0.45, and the AUC was 0.702 (95% CI:0.612-0.781, P<0.01), superior to MELD, MELD-Na and Blatchford score (AUC were 0.593, 0.648, 0.610, respectively). The proportion of high-risk EVs in Liaoning score ≥0.45 and <0.45 were 71.8% (89/124) and 34.8% (16/46) with significant differences ( χ2=19.442, P<0.01). The AUC of Liaoning score for predicting hemorrhage or re-hemorrhage within 1 year was 0.680 (95% CI: 0.595-0.765, P<0.01), superior to MELD, MELD-Na and Blatchford score (AUC were 0.605,0.615,0.598, respectively). AUC of Blatchford score for predicting blood transfusion was 0.775 (95% CI:0.687-0.863, P<0.01), superior to MELD, MELD-Na and Liaoning score (AUC were 0.653, 0.719, 0.631, respectively). Conclusion:Liaoning score can predict high-risk EVs, hemorrhage or re-hemorrhage within 1 year after the first endoscopy in patients with cirrhosis and is superior to MELD, MELD-Na and Blatchford score. Blatchford score can effectively predict whether cirrhosis patients with EVs need blood transfusion.

Physical characteristics of Xibe adults in Liaoning Province / 解剖学报

Objective To study the physical characteristics of body of Xibe adults in Liaoning province and to accumulate data for the studyof physical anthropology. Methods The investigation method and judging standard were refered to correlative regulations in " Anthropometric Method ". The survey included 33 measurement items, 5 indicators and 6 types, 330 Xibe adult people (male 174, female 156) were recruited. Results According to the classification of body part index, the rates of long trunk, wide chest, wide shoulder and wide pelvis were the highest in all the adults of Xibe nationality in Liaoning province, the rates of middle and sub-long legs were the highest in the males, and the rates of super short legs were the highest in the females. According to the stature type, the rates of high type were the highest in males and females. Conclusion The body physical characteristics of male adults of Xibe nationality in Liaoning are the most similar to those of male adults of Xibe nationality in Xinjiang, and the body physical characteristics of female adults of Xibe nationality in Liaoning were between those of female adults of ethnic minorities in Northwest China and Northeast China.

Microrna-21 regulates proliferation and differentiation of osteoclasts in periodontitis / 中国组织工程研究

BACKGROUND: MicroRNA-21 (miR-21) is a regulator of osteoclastogenesis and a promoter of osteoclast differentiation, but its role in periodontitis remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: To investigate whether miR-21 is involved in bone destruction in periodontitis. METHODS: Real-time PCR was used to detect and analyze the differential expression of miR-21 in periodontitis samples. Using liposome transfection method, miR-21 mimics (up-regulating miR-21) or miR-21 inhibitor (down-regulating miR-21) was used to transfect osteoclasts. Expressions of miR-21 and bone destruction markers TRAP and CTSK were detected by real-time PCR. Cell counting kit-8 was used to detect the miR-21 effect on osteoclast proliferation. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: (1) MiR-21 expression increased in periodontitis samples. (2) When miR-21 mimics was transfected into osteoclasts, miR-21, TRAP and CTSK mRNA expression increased; when miR-21 inhibitor was transfected into osteoclasts, miR-21, TRAP and CTSK mRNA expression decreased. (3) Transfection with miR-21 mimics promoted the proliferation of osteoclasts, while transfection with miR-21 inhibitor inhibited the proliferation of osteoclasts. To conclude, miR-21 can be used as an important target for the treatment of periodontitis.

Analysis of Retail Pharmacy Layout in Liaoning Province Based on the Government Perspective / 中国药房

OBJECTIVE：To investigate rationality of existing retail pharmacy layout in Liaoning province ，and to discuss the rationalization of retail pharmacy layout from the perspective of the government. METHODS ：By introducing the concept of coverage radius ，comprehensive use of population ，area，number of retail pharmacies ，average number of people covered by each retail pharmacy ，the difference between the number of pharmacies （calculated according to the coverage radius and area ）and the number of existing pharmacies ，the shortest distance between two retail pharmacies as indicators ，the overall retail pharmacies layout in 14 cities of Liaoning province and the specific layout of retail pharmacies in Shenyang were analyzed to put forward the idea of optimizing the retail pharmacies layout. RESULTS & CONCLUSIONS ：The correlation of the number of existing retail pharmacies in Liaoning province with the population and land area to a certain extent showed no obvious law ，with some degree randomness. The average number of people covered by each pharmacy is 1 917-4 157 in each city ；the average number of people covered by retail pharmacies in the remaining 10 cities like Yingkou is lower than the provincial average. The average number of people covered in Chaoyang and other 3 cities is higher ，with great development space. The number of existing retail pharmacies in 8 districts and counties such as Tiexi district do not meet the actual needs of consumers （the number of existing pharmacies is 2- 3 921 less than the number of due pharmacies ），while the number of existing retail pharmacies in 3 districts such as Shenhe district far exceeds the required number （the number of existing pharmacies is 142-248 more than the number of due pharmacies ）. There is a problem of too small spacing between adjacent retail pharmacies （the minimum distance is less than 500 m）. The distribution of retail pharmacies in Liaoning province is unbalanced ，and there is insufficient demand in some areas. When optimizing of retail pharmacies layout ，the government should establish a double objective evaluation system ，which is fair （measured by the maximum distance between the uncovered demand area and the nearest retail pharmacies ）and efficient （measured by the sum of the number of retail drugstores needed for the existing layout and the number of new retail drugstores ）. It is also necessary to analyze and construct a retail pharmacies location model which is suitable for China ’s national conditions ，and consider the actual conditions of the parameters of the actual constraints and objective constraints ，so as to realize the overall optimization of retail drugstores .

Investigation on the status of 3-14 years old children with cerebral palsy in Liaoning / 中国医师进修杂志

Objective To investigate the status on children of 3-14 years old who suffered from cerebral palsy in Liaoning province. Methods One thousand three hundred and twenty-three cases of children with cerebral palsy of 3-14 years old who received rehabilitation in city hospital, county hospital and community hospital were investigated from January 2013 to October 2016 in 14 cities in Liaoning Province. The proportion of cerebral palsy children in 3-4 years old, 4-5 years old, 8-9 years old, 5-6 years old , 6-7 years old and 7-8 years old was about 10%, and in the other age the proportion was about 7%. The proportion of men and women generally was 4:1;neonatal convulsion (252 cases, 19%), premature delivery (230 cases , 17.3%) and low birth weight infant (187 cases, 14.1%) were main risk factors and accounted for more than 10%. Spastic type cerebral palsy accounted for the highest proportion (54.35%, 719 cases)and ataxia cerebral palsy accounted for the lowest proportion (2.95%). In complications , lower intelligence accounted for the highest proportion (50.34%, 666 cases), followed by the language barrier (43.99% , 582 cases), and the other complications accounted for less than 10%.;gross motor function classification in most studied children was stageⅡ(35%) and stageⅢ(32.50%); 6.95% patients could go to school, and 84.96% patients had health insurance. Patients coming from city accounted for 69.01%, and patients coming from rural area accounted for 30.99%. Mothers′ education below primary school was 4.16% . 36.05% children received rehabilitation in comprehensive hospital, 60.09%in children′s hospital and 3.85%in maternal and child health hospital. Conclusions Spastic cerebral palsy is the main type of children with cerebral palsy in Liaoning.High risk factors include neonatal convulsions, premature birth and low birth weight infants. Most patients complicate with low intelligence and language barriers.This paper can be used as the basis of further research on prevention and treatment

Investigation of the tinnitus' prevalence in healthy check-up in Dalian / 中国耳鼻咽喉头颈外科

OBJECTIVE To investigate the tinnitus' prevalence in Healthy check-up population in Dalian City. METHODS 1748 cases (male 806, female 942) were chosen from the Physical Examination Center of our hospital from February 1st, 2015 to April 1st, 2015, the tinnitus questionnaire was performed. For the cases with the tinnitus symptoms, the characteristics of tinnitus were further inquired, including the course of tinnitus, seizure frequency, the duration of tinnitus, pulsatile or persistent, unilateral or bilateral. RESULTS The total prevalence of tinnitus is 32.4%(566/1748), the prevalence of persistent tinnitus is 18.3%(320/1748), and the transient tinnitus is 14.1%(246/1748); The prevalence of tinnitus in female are 36.4%(343/942), 20.0%(188/942) and 16.5%(155/942) in turn, which are higher than that of the male 27.7%(223/806), P<0.01; 16.4%(132/806), P =0.054, and 11.3%(91/806), P<0.01. Both the total and persistent tinnitus prevalence increase with age(P<0.01), but the transient tinnitus doesn't increase with age. The prevalence of objective and subjective tinnitus are 1.3%(6.9% out of total prevalence of tinnitus), and 17.0%(93.1% out of total prevalence of tinnitus), respectively. The rate of bilateral tinnitus is 78.1% out of total tinnitus, and rate of unilateral tinnitus is 21.9%(right 11.6%, left 10.3%). In addition, the rates of acute tinnitus, subacute tinnitus, and chronic tinnitus are 4.4%, 3.8%, and 91.9% out of total, respectively. Otherwise, the rates of sleep disorders and hearing loss complaining accounted for 31.9% and 14.1% respectively. CONCLUSION The prevalence of tinnitus is high in healthy check-up population of Dalian, the total prevalence of tinnitus is 32.4%, mainly bilateral,chronic and subjective.

Epidemiological characteristics of malaria in Liaoning Province from 1951 to 2014 / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

Objective To explore the epidemiological characteristics of malaria in Liaoning Province from 1951 to 2014,so as to provide the evidence for further control of the disease. Methods The data of registered malaria cases in Liaoning Province from 1951 to 2014 were collected and analyzed with epidemiological methods. Results From 1951 to 2014,there were report-ed malaria cases each year. The peaks of incidence were in 1953,1962 and 1973,the incidence rates were 136.67/100000, 256.81/100000 and 35.89/100000 respectively and the numbers of patients were 27862,65460 and 11523,respectively. From 1977 to 2014,the incidence rates were all less than 1/100000. From 1951 to 1980,the occupations of patients were main-ly farmers,and from 1981 to 2014 were mainly workers,farmers and exported laborers. Conclusion The malaria endemic situ-ation in Liaoning Province experienced the periods from outbreaks to basically elimination,and the long-term surveillance will be the further working emphasis.

The Strategic Theory on the Development of Health Industry in Liaoning / 中国卫生经济

Objective:As a new strategic industry,health industry was related to the national economy and the livelihood of residents.To probe into the current situation and problems of health industry in Liaoning so as to provide reference for the sustainable development of health industry in Liaoning.Methods:Using the method of literature analysis and interview to explore the comparative advantages and the bottleneck factors of the development of health industry in Liaoning.Results:Liaoning Province medicinal resources were rich and unique,with strong industrial base and protruding industrial cluster advantage,which had leading enterprises significant demonstration effect.Meanwhile,the healthy development of the industry was the imbalanced in regional development,lack of industry standards,lack of R & D innovation,health industry talent scarcity etc.Conclusion:Combined with the actual situation and problems of the development of health industry in Liaoning,it put forward countermeasures and suggestions to provide strategic thinking for improving the development of the health industry in Liaoning.

Efficiency analysis of medical equipment deployment in Liaoning province based on data envelopment analysis / 中华医院管理杂志

Objective To learn the present efficiency of medical equipments at public hospitals in Liaoning province, and provide scientific basis for rational distribution of such resources, and for control of medical expenses.Methods Data envelop analysis (DEA) was used to appraise the deployment efficiency of 2 784 such equipments worth over 100 000 yuan per unit, with equipments randomly sampled from 31 public hospitals in the province.Results The equipment deployment at public hospitals in Liaoning was found at a low level.9.7% of the hospitals were found as relatively efficient, 3.2% of them as in relatively weak efficiency, while 87.1% of them relatively inefficient.Gaps were found between urban hospitals and tertiary hospitals, and rural hospitals and secondary hospitals in their deployment efficiency, as evidenced in overinvestment of equipments and insufficiency of competent operators.Conclusions Hospitals should strengthen their scientific management of the equipments, and emphasize human resource investment, thus elevating the efficiency of equipment deployment.

Isolation and identification of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus strain LN-2015-1 and its S gene mutation analysis / 中国兽医学报

In order to understand the porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) origin and variant characteristics in Liaoning province,diagnosed by PCR,separated by Vero cell,and identified by cell pathological observation,RT-PCR and S gene sequence analysis,1 PEDV strains (LN-2015-1) was successfully isolated from a pig farm of Liaoning province.Analysis of S gene sequence showed that compared withCV777 strain,there were the longest 9 bp insertion,6 bp deletion and 13 bp continuous mutation in addition to point mutation.There also were the longest 3 AA insert,2 AA deletion,and 3 AA or more continuous mutation.The epitope analysis showed that there were 16AA mutations in the 5 epitope regions.Homology analysis show that it had the highest sequence similarity of 99.2％ with HB-HA2015 strain,higher sequence similarity of 98.5％-98.8％ with the domestic and foreign representative strains isolated since 2010,and lower sequence similarity of 93.2％-95.6％ with the traditional strain isolated before 2010;the phylogenetic analysis showed that LN-2015-1 was clustered into the same group with home and abroad variation strain in recent years,and formed a small subgroup with HB-HA2015 at the same time.The evolutionary distance was far from the traditional strains.

Analysis of the medical expenditure beneficiary population in Liaoning province based on SHA2011 / 中华医院管理杂志

Objective To describe and analyze the distribution of medical expenditure of Liaoning province in 2014 in terms of population beneficiary based on the System of Health Accounts 2011(SHA 2011).Methods By means of multistage and stratified sampling, a total of 252 medical institutions were selected from four cities in Liaoning province according to their economic status and geographical distribution.Macro data including the outpatient income and hospitalization income were taken into account, to calculate the beneficiary population of the province in 2014 according to SHA2011.Results GBD classification found that the highest medical expenditure category was non-communicable diseases, accounting for 63.02% in total medical expenditure.ICD classification found that respiratory disease as consuming the highest medical expenses (43.76%).The average medical expenditure of the elderly population was the highest per person, up to 3 041.70 yuan per person.Conclusions Medical expenses of non-communicable diseases, respiratory disease and elderly population were still high.Thus we need to emphasize disease prevention, and take efficient measures against such key diseases to curb the medical expenses.The elderly population calls for specific and effective measures to reduce their medical expenses.

Healthy Adult Semen Quality Survey in the Liaoning Area / 中国医科大学学报

Objective To survey the semen quality of healthy adult men in the Liaoning area.Methods We included 400 male volunteers of different ages who underwent a premarital examination and reproductive health checkup in 2015 for semen sample collection.The inclusion criteria were as follows:men who underwent unified semen analysis,those who answered the questionnaire for analysis of overall semen quality,and those who were aged 18-25,26-30,and 31-40 years.Results Among the 400 male volunteers,the consistent standard rate only reached 40.5％ according to the World Health Organization-specified reference values for testicular volume,semen volume,semen concentration,total energy,forward movement,livability,normal appearance,pH,liquefaction time,DNA fragmentation index,and high DNA staining index.The differences between the three groups were statistically significant (P ＜ 0.05).The results of the 18-to 25-year age group were better than those of the other groups.Conclusion Healthy adults' semen quality in the Liaoning area has declined in recent years;therefore,male reproductive health education should be seriously considered.

Seroprevalence of Dirofilaria immitis in Cats from Liaoning Province, Northeastern China

The present study was performed to investigate the seroprevalence and risk factors for Dirofilaria immitis infection in cats from Liaoning province, northeastern China. From October 2014 to September 2016, sera of 651 cats, including 364 domestic cats and 287 feral cats (332 females and 319 males) were assessed. They were tested for the presence of D. immitis antigen using SNAP Heartworm RT test kit. In this population, the average prevalence was 4.5%. Age and rearing conditions (feral or domestic) were found to be associated with the prevalence of D. immitis. The prevalence was significantly higher in feral cats compared with domestic cats (8.4% vs 1.4%, P 0.05), but older cats (≥3 years old) showed a statistically higher prevalence compared with younger cats ( 0.05), all these results suggest that outdoor exposure time may be one of the most important factors for D. immitis prevalence in cats. Results reveal that D. immitis are prevalence in domestic and feral cats in northeastern China, which indicates that appropriate preventive measures should be taken to decrease the incidence of feline heartworm disease in Liaoning province, northeastern China.

Capability evaluation of transfusion compatibility tests for blood transfusion departments in Dalian,2012 / 国际检验医学杂志

Objective To standardize the detection procedure and improve the detection ability through the capability evaluation of transfusion compatibility tests for blood transfusion departments in Dalian .Methods Both on‐site inspection and external quality assessment(EQA) were used .The items of on‐site inspection consisted of equipments ,reagents ,tests ,operating instructions and re‐cords .EQA included ABO grouping ,Rh(D) grouping ,antibody screening and crossmatching .Results 42 of 62 blood transfusion departments were qualified .Only one was unqualified in on‐site inspection because antibody screening were not carried out .The un‐qualified ratio of second‐class hospitals′ EQA was the highest (42 .3% ) .The coincidence rates of antibody screening and crossmatching were 82 .0% and 77 .4% respectively ,while those of ABO grouping and Rh(D) grouping was 100 .0% .Conclusion Relatively fixed staffing in laboratories and continual training was important for the improvement of transfusion compatibility tests .

Analysis of pre-hospital emergency resources allocation in Liaoning province / 中华医院管理杂志

Objective To learn the present pre-hospital emergency resources allocation in Liaoning province.Methods Site survey and questionnaire survey were used to survey the basic information,number of pre-hospital emergency ambulances,human resources,and communication/control systems of 19 pre-hospital emergency centers in Liaoning province in 2014.Results The number of pre-hospital emergency sub-stations,ambulances and human resource fall short of demand.Furthermore,these resources are found with such problems as greater service radius of average pre-hospital emergency service and longer average pre-hospital response time in countryside than cities,insufficient and obsolete ambulances short of onboard equipment and communication systems,not to mention shortage of medical workers of higher degrees and academic titles.Conclusions A great gap is found between urban and rural pre-hospital emergency resource allocation in Liaoning province,with poor resources in the countryside.The government is recommended to step up financial support in increasing pre-hospital emergency substations and resources allocation,regularly update pre-hospital emergency vehicles,set up independent title promotion mechanism,perfect communication scheduling system,in order to satisfy the demands of pre-hospital first aid.

Study on the Present Situation and Supporting Measures of National Essential Medicine System in Liaoning Province / 中国药房

OBJECTIVE:To provide reference for further optimizing the implementation of national essential medicine system in Liaoning province. METHODS:54 primary medical institutions in Liaoning province were selected,and document research,data collect and comparative analysis were performed for the statistical analysis of equipment,usage and distribution of essential medi-cines,etc. RESULTS:The average equipment of essential medicines in surveyed institutions in the 3rd quarter of 2012 and 2014 were 223.8 and 325.0 product regulations,respectively,with equipment rates of 42.9% and 46.8%;average outpatient prescription drug expenses per person in community health service centers in the 3rd quarter of 2012 and 2014 were 61.7,62.1 yuan and town-ship hospitals were 38.1,39.8 yuan,respectively,which were higher than national average level;shipping amount of manufactur-ers with the top 24 shipping amount was 43.00% to total amount,and 58 manufactures had no shipping amount;usage amount of varieties with the top 7 usage amount was 25.77% to total usage amount of essential medicines;distribution amount of commercial companies with the top 4 distribution amount was 41.27% to total amount. CONCLUSIONS:54 primary medical institutions in Lia-oning province equipment exist some problems,including low distribution rate,high price,shortage of medicines,high usage and distribution concentration,and so on. It is suggested that distribution enterprises should strengthen the construction of supply chain platform,optimizing distribution network and improving distribution capacity,and the government should strengthen supervision and financial support based on guarantee of reasonable profits of production companies and distribution companies.

Prevalence of malaria in Liaoning Province,2008 to 2013 / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

Objective To understand the trend and epidemiologic characteristics of malaria prevalence so as to provide the evidence for further control of the disease in Liaoning Province. Methods The data of registered cases of malaria in Liaoning Province from 2008 to 2013 were collected and analyzed with the descriptive epidemiological methods. Results A total of 202 ma-laria cases were reported from 2008 to 2013. There was no epidemic outbreak ,and the average annual incidence was 0.08/100 000. Totally 17 P. v. cases of local infection were reported,and 185 imported malaria cases were reported(P.v. 33 cases,P.f. 113 cases,P.v.&P.f. 13 cases,P.o. 3 cases,and unspecified 23 cases). The ratio of male to female was 5.91:1,the populations aged 31-45 years were the most(47.52%),and the main occupation was exported labors(46.04%). The 179 imported cases were infected in Africa and Southeast Asia,6 imported cases were infected in Anhui Province,Yunnan Province and Hongkong,and 16 local cases were infected in the border area of Dandong City. Conclusions Although the annual incidence of malaria in Liaon-ing Province is lower than 1/10 000,the incidence shows an increasing trend because the exported labors are increased. There-fore,the epidemic monitoring and health education should be strengthened,especially for the exported labors who have returned.

The Prospective and Simulation on the Financing Amount of Basic Medical Insurance in Liaoning / 中国卫生经济

Objective: Using system dynamics to provide prospective and simulation of double exponential smoothing on Basic Medical Insurance Fund and related indexes from 2013-2022 in Liaoning. Methods: Using the post testing to select the best value of αand projecting the whole procedure of forecast into the software of system dynamics to get the prospective result. Results: In ending of simulation, the increase of fund and other objects will reach about 2 times as much as those in 2013 , and out-of-pocket in total expenditure on health will be declined greatly. Conclusion: The economy of province is developing fast while Basic Medical Insurance is in relatively lower level.