Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 e 3 são preditores de mortalidade iguais? Estudo de concordância com base em unidade de terapia intensiva / Are the Pediatric Index of Mortality 2 and 3 equal predictors of mortality? An intensive care unit-based concordance study

RESUMO Objetivo: Determinar a concordância da classificação do risco de mortalidade por meio do uso dos escores Pediatric Index of Mortality (PIM) 2 e 3. Métodos: Avaliação de uma coorte retrospectiva pela análise dos pacientes admitidos à unidade de terapia intensiva pediátrica entre abril de 2016 e dezembro de 2018. Calculamos o risco de mortalidade por meio do PIM 2 e do 3. Realizaram-se análises para determinar a concordância entre a classificação de risco obtida com ambas as escalas pela utilização do cálculo do Kappa não ponderado e linearmente ponderado. Resultados: Incluímos 722 pacientes, sendo que 66,6% destes tinham uma condição crônica. A mortalidade global foi de 3,7%. O coeficiente Kappa de concordância para classificação dos pacientes, segundo o risco com o PIM 2 e o 3, foi moderado: 0,48 (IC95% 0,43 - 0,53). Após ponderação linear, a concordância foi substancial: 0,64 (IC95% 0,59 - 0,69). Para pacientes de cirurgia cardíaca, a concordância para a classificação de risco foi regular: 0,30 (IC95% 0,21 - 0,39); após ponderação linear, a concordância foi apenas moderada: 0,49 (IC95% 0,39 - 0,59). O PIM 3 acusou um risco mais baixo do que o PIM 2 em 44,8% dos pacientes desse subgrupo. Conclusão: Nosso estudo comprova que o PIM 2 e o 3 não são clinicamente equivalentes e não devem ser usadas de forma intercambiável para avaliação da qualidade em diferentes unidades de terapia intensiva. Devem ser conduzidos estudos de validação antes que se utilizem os PIM 2 e 3 em situações específicas.

ABSTRACT Objective: To determine the concordance of mortality risk classification through the use of the Pediatric Index of Mortality (PIM) 2 and 3. Methods: Through a retrospective cohort, we evaluated patients admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit between April 2016 and December 2018. We calculated the mortality risk with the PIM 2 and 3. Analyses were carried out to determine the concordance between the risk classification obtained with both scales using unweighted and linearly weighted kappa. Results: A total of 722 subjects were included, and 66.6% had a chronic condition. The overall mortality was 3.7%. The global kappa concordance coefficient for classifying patients according to risk with the PIM 2 and 3 was moderate at 0.48 (95%CI 0.43 - 0.53). After linear weighting, concordance was substantial at 0.64 (95%CI 0.59 - 0.69). For cardiac surgery patients, concordance for risk classification was fair at 0.30 (95%CI 0.21 - 0.39), and after linear weighting, concordance was only moderate at 0.49 (95%CI 0.39 - 0.59). The PIM 3 assigned a lower risk than the PIM 2 in 44.8% of patients in this subgroup. Conclusion: Our study proves that the PIM 2 and 3 are not clinically equivalent and should not be used interchangeably for quality evaluation across pediatric intensive care units. Validation studies must be performed before using the PIM 2 or PIM 3 in specific settings.

Predictive value of fluid overload for mortality in children with severe sepsis / 中华实用儿科临床杂志

Objective To investigate the predictive value of fluid overload for mortality in children with severe sepsis.Methods In this retrospective study,the children with severe sepsis who were admitted to the Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU),Children's Hospital of Soochow University between January 2011 and March 2015.Fluid accumulation was calculated in the first 72 hours after admission.Pediatric index of mortality Ⅱ (PIM2) score was calculated during the first 1 hour after admission.Multivariate Logistic regression analysis assessed the relationship between fluid overload and mortality after adjustment for confounding factors.The predictive value of fluid overload for mortality was assessed by the receiver operating characteristic curve and au area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC).Results Of the 199 children admitted,62 cases (31.2％) died during PICU stay.Among the children,133 cases (66.8％) had fluid overload of＜5％,55 cases (27.6％)had fluid overload of≥5％-10％,and 11 cases (5.6％) had fluid overload of≥ 10％.Multivariate regression analysis showed that a high fluid overload percent (OR =1.263,95 ％ CI:1.113-1.434,P ＜ 0.001),a high PIM2 score (OR =1.028,95 ％ CI:1.012-1.043,P ＜ 0.001) and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome(OR =4.160,95％ CI:1.728-10.012,P =0.001) were independent risk factors for mortality in children with severe sepsis.The fluid overload was significantly associated with mortality (OR =1.309,95％ CI:1.158-1.480,P ＜0.001),even after adjustment for age and illness severity assessed by PIM2 scores.Fluid overload achieved AUC of 0.741 (95％ CI:0.661-0.820,P ＜ 0.001) for predicting mortality in children with severe sepsis.Conclusion Fluid overload developed during the first 72 hours after admission is independently associated with and predictive of PICU mortality in children with severe sepsis.

Validación de dos escalas de valor pronóstico en niños que ingresan a UCI / Validation of two prediction value scores in children admitted to the intensive care unit

Las escalas PIM (Índice de Mortalidad Pediátrica) y PELOD (Índice Pediátrico de Disfunción Orgánica) son sistemas de evaluación que permiten la estimación de la severidad de la enfermedad y el ajuste del riesgo de mortalidad en grupos heterogéneos de pacientes. El objetivo del presente trabajo fue el de validar las escalas PIM y PELOD en una Unidad de Cuidados Intensivos pediátrica (UCIP). Metodología. Fueron incluidos 97 niños con edad menor o igual a 12 años; las variables estudiadas fueron la mortalidad o sobrevida durante la estancia en UCI. PIM incluye 7 variables medidas durante la primera hora de admisión a UCI; PELOD incluye disfunción de seis sistemas orgánicos en 12 variables. Para estimar discriminación, se utilizó el área bajo la curva de rendimiento diagnóstico, y para evaluar calibración, la bondad de ajuste de Hosmer-Lemeshow. Resultados. Edad media 4,0 años (rango intercuartil 1,0-8,1); estancia 6,0 días; (rango 3,0 a 17,0); las principales causas de ingreso a UCIP fueron accidentes 30, sepsis 19, neurológicas 14. Desarrollaron disfunción orgánica múltiple 58 (59,8%) de 97. La mortalidad observada fue de 17,5%. La predicción de riesgo de mortalidad por PIM fue significativamente más alta en no sobrevivientes (0,48±0,35) que sobrevivientes (0,18±0,23; t test 3,40 p<0,003); calibración (p=0,025) y discriminación (área bajo la curva = 0,79 ± 0,057; p<0,001) de PIM fue buena. Conclusión: PIM es una medida válida de predicción de riesgo de mortalidad en UCIP en nuestro medio

The Pediatric Index of Mortality (PIM) and Pediatric Logistic Organ Dysfunction (PLOD) scale are scoring systems that allow assessment of the severity of illness and mortality risk adjustment in heterogeneous groups of patients. The aim of this study was to validate the accuracy and reliability of PIM and PELOD scoring in a pediatric Intensive Care Unit (ICU) Methods: 97 children under 12 years of age were included. Survival and mortality during the stay in the ICU were studied. PIM scale includes 7 parameters measured during the first hour of admission to the ICU; PELOD includes dysfunction of 6 organs and systems in 12 variables. The area under the curve was used to assess discrimination and calibration was assessed with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test. Results: The median patient age was 4,0 years (inter-quartile range 1,0-8,1), median length of stay was 6 days (range 3-17). Main causes for admission to the ICU were accidents 30, sepsis 19, neurological 14. Fifty eight patients (59,8%) developed multiple organic dysfunction. Observed mortality was 17,5%. Prediction of risk of mortality with PIM was significantly higher in non survivors (0,48 ± 0,35) than in survivors (0,18 ± 0,23); t test 3,40 p<0,003; calibration (p=0,025) and discrimination (area under the curve = 0,79±0,057; p<0,001) for PIM was good. Conclusions: PIM is a valid prediction index for mortality risk in pediatric ICU in our hospitals