Body mass to predict 4-6 rm of pectoral and leg muscles exercises in bodybuilders / Predicción de 4-6 rm de ejercicios de piernas y pectorales por masa corporal / Predição de 4-6 rm de exercicios de perna e peitoral pela massa corporal

ABSTRACT Introduction: Submaximal strength testing appears to be valid to prescribe the intensity for strength training protocols that reduce the risk of injuries and testing time. Objective: This study aimed to assess the predictive ability of body mass parameters to estimate 4-6 repetitions maximum (4-6 RM) of Leg press 45°, Chest press, and Pull-down exercises. Methods: Eleven male bodybuilders (age 38.27 ± 10.48 years) participated in this study. Participants completed an incremental external load up to find the load allowing them to perform 4 to 6 maximal repetitions for each exercise in random order. The starting load was 50% of body mass for chest press and pull-down exercises and 100% for leg press. The load increment after each set was 20 kg for lower limb exercises and 10 kg for upper body exercises. Results: Results revealed that body mass had good to optimal relationships with 4-6 RM for all three exercises. Results showed that body mass had a good prediction ability for all three criterion measures. Conclusion: The prediction equations suggested in this study may allow coaches to estimate the 4-6 RM of leg press 45°, chest press, and pull-down performances. Evidence Level IV; Case series.

RESUMEN Introducción: El test de fuerza submáxima parece ser válido para prescribir la intensidad en protocolos de entrenamiento de fuerza, reduciendo el riesgo de lesiones y la duración del test. Objetivo: Evaluar la capacidad predictiva de los parámetros de masa corporal para estimar 4-6 repeticiones máximas (4-6 RM) de ejercicios de Leg press 45°, Chest press y Pull-down realizados por fisicoculturistas. Métodos: Once fisicoculturistas masculinos (38,27 ± 10,48 años) participaron en el estudio. Completaron la carga externa incremental hasta encontrar la carga que les permitiera realizar de 4 a 6 repeticiones máximas para cada ejercicio, en orden aleatorio. La carga inicial se fijó en el 50% de la masa corporal para los ejercicios Chest press y Pull-down, y en el 100% para los ejercicios Leg press. El incremento de carga después de cada ronda fue de 20 kg para los miembros inferiores y 10 kg para los miembros superiores. Resultados: Los resultados revelaron que la masa corporal tiene relaciones satisfactorias con 4-6 RM para los tres ejercicios. Los resultados mostraron que la masa corporal tiene una buena capacidad predictiva en las tres medidas. Conclusión: Las ecuaciones de predicción sugeridas en este estudio pueden permitir a los entrenadores utilizar estos ejercicios para medir el rendimiento a 4-6 RM en ejercicios de Leg press 45°, Chest press y Pull-down. Nivel de Evidencia IV; serie de casos.

RESUMO Introdução: O teste de força submáxima parece ser válido para prescrever a intensidade nos protocolos de treinamento de força, reduzindo o risco de lesões e duração dos testes. Objetivo: Avaliar a capacidade preditiva dos parâmetros de massa corporal para estimar o exercício de 4-6 repetições máximas (4-6 RM) nos exercícios de Leg press 45°, Chest press e Pull-down efetuados por fisiculturistas. Métodos: Onze fisiculturistas masculinos (38,27 ± 10,48 anos) participaram do estudo. Eles completaram a carga externa incremental até encontrar a carga que lhes permitia realizar de 4 a 6 repetições máximas para cada exercício, em ordem aleatória. A carga inicial foi fixada em 50% da massa corporal para os exercícios de Chest press e Pull-down, e 100% para o de Leg press. O incremento de carga após cada rodada foi de 20 kg para o exercício de membros inferiores e 10 kg em membros superiores. Resultados: Os resultados revelaram que a massa corporal apresenta relações satisfatórias com 4-6 RM para todos os três exercícios. Os resultados mostraram que a massa corporal possui boa capacidade preditiva em todas as três medidas. Conclusão: As equações de previsão sugeridas nesse estudo podem permitir o uso desses exercícios pelos técnicos para medir a performance a 4-6 RM nos exercícios de Leg press 45°, Chest press, e Pull-down. Nível de evidência IV; série de casos.

Near-Adult Heights and Adult Height Predictions Using Automated and Conventional Greulich–Pyle Bone Age Determinations in Children with Chronic Endocrine Diseases

Objectives To validate adult height predictions (BX) using automated and Greulich–Pyle bone age determinations in children with chronic endocrine diseases. Methods Heights and near-adult heights were measured in 82 patients (48 females) with chronic endocrinopathies at the age of 10.45±2.12 y and at time of transition to adult care (17.98±3.02 y). Further, bone age (BA) was assessed using the conventional Greulich–Pyle (GP) method by three experts, and by BoneXpert™. PAH were calculated using conventional BP tables and BoneXpert™. Results The conventional and the automated BA determinations revealed a mean diference of 0.25±0.72 y (p=0.0027). The automated PAH by BoneXpert™ were 156.26 ± 0.86 cm (SDS ? 2.01 ± 1.07) in females and 171.75 ± 1.6 cm (SDS ? 1.29 ± 1.06) in males, compared to 153.95 ± 1.12 cm (SDS ? 2.56 ± 1.5) in females and 169.31 ± 1.6 cm (SDS?1.66±1.56) in males by conventional BP, respectively and in comparison to near-adult heights 156.38±5.84 cm (SDS?1.91±1.15) in females and 168.94±8.18 cm (SDS?1.72±1.22) in males, respectively. Conclusion BA ratings and adult height predictions by BoneXpert™ in children with chronic endocrinopathies abolish rater-dependent variability and enhance reproducibility of estimates thereby refning care in growth disorders. Conventional methods may outperform automated analyses in specifc cases.

Historia y futuro de las pandemias / History and future of pandemics

Este artículo presenta una historia general de las epidemias históricas y de las nuevas enfermedades emergentes, señalando sus factores desencadenantes. Se afirma que las epidemias son inevitables, y que su riesgo aumenta en proporción al tamaño, la complejidad y el poder tecnológico de nuestras sociedades. La historia enseña que las epidemias han sido casi siempre desencadenadas por cambios en el ambiente ocasionados por las propias actividades humanas. Las enfermedades infecciosas son manifestación de una interacción ecológica entre la especie humana y otra especie de microorganismos. Y las epidemias son resultado del cambio en algún factor ambiental capaz de influir en esa interacción. Las catástrofes epidémicas son inevitables: en primer lugar, porque no podemos evitar formar parte de cadenas tróficas en las que comemos y somos comidos por los microbios; en segundo lugar, porque las infecciones son mecanismos evolutivos y factores reguladores del equilibrio ecológico, que regulan sobre todo el tamaño de las poblaciones; y, en tercer lugar, porque las intervenciones técnicas humanas, al modificar los equilibrios previos, crean equilibrios nuevos que son más vulnerables. De este modo las sociedades humanas son más vulnerables cuanto más complejas. Y los éxitos humanos en la modificación de condiciones ambientales conservan, o más bien aumentan, el riesgo de catástrofes epidémicas. Todas las necesarias medidas de vigilancia y control epidemiológico imaginables pueden disminuir los daños que producen las epidemias, pero nunca podrán evitarlas.

This article presents a general history of historical epidemics, and new emerging diseases, pointing out their triggers. It is claimed that epidemics are inevitable, and that their risk increases in proportion to the size, complexity, and technological power of our societies. History teaches that epidemics have almost always been triggered by changes in the environment caused by human activities themselves. Infectious diseases are manifestations of an ecological interaction between the human species and another species of microorganisms. And epidemics are the result of a change in some environmental factor capable of influencing that interaction. Epidemic catastrophes are inevitable: firstly, because we cannot help but be part of trophic chains in which we eat and are eaten by microbes; secondly, because infections are evolutionary mechanisms and regulatory factors of ecological balance, which regulate especially the size of populations; and thirdly, because human technical interventions, in changing previous balances, create new balances that are more vulnerable. In this way human societies are more vulnerable the more complex. And human successes in modifying environmental conditions retain, or rather increase, the risk of epidemic catastrophes. All necessary epidemiological surveillance and control measures imaginable can lessen the damage caused by epidemics, but they can never prevent them.

Artificial intelligence techniques applied to predict teams position of the brazilian football championship / Técnicas de inteligência artificial aplicadas para previsão da posição de times do campeonato brasileiro de futebol

ABSTRACT This study presents a classifier prediction in groups for the Brazilian Football Championship of both A and B leagues, from the results of the first half of each championship. With assertive predictions of the group where a team will end the championship, strategic planning can be performed in the squad, such as new hiring, specific training for athletes, and possible championships that the team will be entitled to participate in according to the group classification. In order to find the predictions, two techniques of artificial intelligence were applied: Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), which is a type of artificial neural network, and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Preliminary results show that the proposed methodology is very promising, with more than 40% successful cases with MLP and almost 50% with SVM. Moreover, results indicate that the methodology is able to make a reasonable prediction by missing one group of the true group at the end of the championship. The SVM technique was slightly better than MLP. A post-processing analysis of the SVM results was applied to the 2018 A league data from the Brazilian championship, resulting in 85% success indicator of groups.

RESUMO Este trabalho apresenta uma previsão de classificação em grupos para as equipes do campeonato brasileiro de futebol tanto da série A quanto da série B a partir dos resultados do primeiro turno de cada campeonato. Com previsões assertivas do grupo onde um time irá finalizar o campeonato, pode-se realizar um planejamento estratégico no elenco tal como novas contratações, treinos específicos dos atletas e possíveis campeonatos que o time terá direito de participar de acordo com o grupo em que se classificar. Para encontrar as previsões, aplicou-se as técnicas rede neural artificial Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP) e Support Vector Machine (SVM). Resultados preliminares indicam que a metodologia proposta é bastante promissora, acertando em mais de 40% dos casos com a MLP e quase 50% com o SVM. Além disso, os resultados indicam que a metodologia também é capaz de realizar uma boa previsão errando em um grupo do verdadeiro grupo ao final do campeonato. A técnica SVM se mostrou um pouco superior à MLP. Um pós processamento nos resultados do SVM é aplicado aos dados do ano de 2018 da série A do campeonato brasileiro, resultando em 85% de acertos dos grupos.

Relationship between the national evaluation system and the performance of brazilian rowers / Relação entre o sistema nacional de avaliação e desempenho de remadores brasileiros / Relación entre el sistema nacional de evaluación y desempeño de remadores brasileños

ABSTRACT Introduction: The National Rower Evaluation System [Sistema Nacional de Avaliação do Remador] (SNAR), adopted by the Brazilian Rowing Confederation, aims to establish a national ranking, and is a prerequisite to participation in National Championships and Selective Games, in its different categories, as well as for joining the Brazilian Rowing Team. Objective: This study aimed to analyze the relationship and the prediction of the SNAR results with competitors' times in a Brazilian Rowing Championship (CBR). Methods: The investigation involved 11 female rowers (18.00 ± 0.89 years) and 16 male rowers (18.18 ± 0.91 years), participants in a CBR, in the junior category. The research was qualitative, with content analysis of the data available on the Confederation's website. Results: In the junior female category, of the ten variables studied, three showed a correlation r≥0.50; in the junior male category, nine showed a correlation r≥0.50. The multiple linear regression equation, with all the variables studied, showed R2 = 0.86 and SEE = 5.30, in the female category; and R2 = 0.90 and SEE = 3.56, in the male category. Conclusion: Based on our results, the tests indicated by SNAR can be an important source of information, offering significant support for managers, athletes and coaching staff, for use in performance diagnosis and in particular, competition prognosis. It can also be used to adapt training schedule where necessary. Level of evidence I; Diagnostic studies-Investigation of a diagnostic test.

RESUMO Introdução: O Sistema Nacional de Avaliação do Remador (SNAR), adotado pela Confederação Brasileira de Remo, tem como finalidade estabelecer um ranking nacional, sendo pré-requisito à participação em Campeonatos e Seletivas Nacionais, em suas diferentes categorias, bem como para ingresso na Seleção Brasileira de Remo. Objetivo: Este estudo visou analisar a relação e a predição dos resultados do SNAR com os tempos dos competidores num Campeonato Brasileiro de Remo (CBR). Métodos: A investigação envolveu 11 remadoras (18,00 ± 0,89 anos) e 16 remadores (18,18 ± 0,91 anos), participantes de um CBR, na categoria júnior. A pesquisa foi qualitativa, com análise de conteúdo dos dados disponíveis no site da Confederação. Resultados: Na categoria júnior feminino, das dez variáveis estudadas, três apresentaram correlação r ≥ 0,50; na categoria júnior masculino, nove apresentaram correlação r ≥ 0,50. A equação de regressão linear múltipla, com todas as variáveis estudadas, apresentou R2 = 0,86 e SEE = 5,30, na categoria feminino; R2 = 0,90 e SEE = 3,56, na categoria masculino. Conclusão: Os resultados obtidos sugerem que a análise dos testes indicados pelo SNAR pode ser uma fonte importante de informações, oferecendo subsídios relevantes a dirigentes, atletas e comissão técnica, tanto de diagnóstico de desempenho como, especialmente, de prognóstico em competição, além de permitir eventuais adaptações no planejamento de treino, quando necessárias e possíveis. Nível de vidência I; Estudos diagnósticos-Investigação de um exame para diagnóstico.

RESUMEN Introducción: El Sistema Nacional de Evaluación del Remador (SNAR), adoptado por la Confederación Brasileña de Remo, tiene como finalidad establecer un ranking nacional, siendo un requisito previo para la participación en Campeonatos y Selectivas Nacionales, en sus diferentes categorías, bien como para ingreso en la Selección Brasileña de Remo. Objetivo: Este estudio tuvo como objetivo analizar la relación y la predicción de los resultados del SNAR con los tiempos de los competidores en un Campeonato Brasileño de Remo (CBR). Métodos: La investigación involucró a 11 remadoras (18,00 ± 0,89 años) y a 16 remadores (18,18 ± 0,91 años), participantes de un CBR, en la categoría junior. La investigación fue cualitativa, con análisis de contenido de los datos disponibles en el sitio web de la Confederación. Resultados: En la categoría junior femenina, de las diez variables estudiadas, tres presentaron correlación r ≥ 0,50; en la categoría junior masculina, nueve presentaron correlación r ≥ 0,50. La ecuación de regresión lineal múltiple, con todas las variables estudiadas, presentó R2 = 0,86 y SEE = 5,30, en la categoría femenina; R2 = 0,90 y SEE = 3,56, en la categoría masculina. Conclusión: Los resultados obtenidos sugieren que el análisis de los tests indicados por el SNAR puede ser una fuente importante de informaciones, ofreciendo subsidios relevantes a los dirigentes, atletas y a la comisión técnica, tanto de diagnóstico de desempeño como, especialmente, de pronóstico en competición, además de permitir eventuales adaptaciones en la planificación de entrenamiento, cuando sea necesario y posible. Nivel de evidencia I; Estudios diagnósticos-investigación de un examen para diagnóstico.

Effects of atmospheric oscillations on infectious diseases: the case of Chagas disease in Chile

BACKGROUND Currently, there is an increasing global interest for the study of how infectious diseases could be linked to climate and weather variability. The Chagas disease was described in 1909 by Carlos Chagas, and is caused by the flagellate protozoan Trypanosoma cruzi. The Chagas disease is considered one of the biggest concerns in public health in Latin America. In Chile, the main vectors involved in the transmission of T. cruzi are arthropods of the Triatominae subfamily. Moreover, another main transmission way is through of vectors by fecal-urine way, however, oral way also has been described among others transmission form. OBJECTIVES In order to get understand outbreaks of Chagas-disease, we search for possible relationships between the frequency of cases in the Chilean population and atmospheric oscillations. METHODS We explored the two most important atmospheric oscillations in the Southern Hemisphere: southern oscillation index (SOI) and Antarctic oscillation (AAO), during the available years with official data. Because the number of migrant people born outside from Chile increasing significantively between 2014 and 2018, we used for the analysis two different periods from data available official data: (i) 2001 to 2014, (ii) 2001 to 2017. FINDINGS For both periods we observed a significant and positive relation between AAO one year before. However, for the 2001 to 2014 period positive SOI one year before, which is related with La Niña phases, was the more important variable. MAIN CONCLUSIONS The Chagas disease frequency per year in Chile was found to depend mainly on SOI in previous year, whose values can be determined one year in advance. Therefore, it is possible to partially forecast annual frequency patterns. This could have important applications in public health strategies and for allocating resources for the management of the disease.

Modelos de regresión para estimar el peso seco de órganos y área del limbo del duraznero, variedad jarillo / Regression models for the estimation of the dry weights of organs and the limbo area of the peach variety jarillo

Los métodos no destructivos y confiables para estimar el área del limbo y el peso seco de los órganos de durazno de la variedad Jarillo están limitados para el investigador. Por el contrario, en este estudio, se desarrollaron unos modelos estadísticos para estimar el área y el peso seco del limbo, de frutos y de ramas de la variedad Jarillo, para ser utilizados, como herramientas, para facilitar la recolección de datos. El estudio, se realizó en las montañas de Pamplona, noroeste de Colombia. Se seleccionaron 240 hojas, de 2,5 meses; 240 frutos, de 3,5 y 7 meses y 240 ramas, de 9 meses de edad, para desarrollar los modelos. Los resultados del análisis de regresión indicaron que varios modelos son adecuados para estimar el área del limbo y el peso seco de los órganos de durazno de la variedad Jarillo. Los datos observados y estimados se compararon estableciendo la relación, mediante una regresión lineal simple, para la rama y el limbo. La relación para el fruto fue de tipo cuadrático. El número de yemas, de volumen, de longitud y el diámetro basal/medio de las ramas mixtas, el peso seco del fruto, el muestreo, el diámetro longitudinal del fruto, la altitud, la longitud del limbo, el peso seco del limbo, el producto de la longitud por el ancho del limbo, el ancho del limbo, el peso seco del limbo, están involucrados en la estimación del área del limbo y el peso seco de los órganos de Prunus persica (L.), variedad Jarillo.

Non-destructive, rapid and reliable methods for estimating the area of limb and dry weight of peach organs for the Jarillo variety are limited. Therefore, the aim of the present study was to produce a statistical model to estimate the area and dry weight of limb fruit and branches of this specific variety that can be used as a tool to facilitate data collection. The study was performed in the mountains of Pamplona, Northwest of Colombia. Two Hundred and forty leaves (240) from 2.5 months old limb, 240 fruits of 3.5 and 7 months old fruits and 240 branches of 9 months old branches were selected and used to develop the model. Results of the regression analysis indicated that several models were suitable to estimate the area limb and the dry weight. The observed and estimated data were compared by establishing the relationship by means of a simple linear regression for the branch and limb. The relation for the fruit was quadratic type. The number of buds, volume of branches, length of mixed branches and basal/mean diameter, dry weight of fruit, sampling, longitudinal diameter of the fruit, altitude, length of limb, dry weight of limb, the product of the length by the width of the limb, width of the limb, should be considered in the estimation of the area limb and dry weight of the peach organs of P. persica (L.) Jarillo variety.

Application of drug-target prediction technology in network pharmacology of traditional Chinese medicine / 中国中药杂志

In recent years, network pharmacology has been developed rapidly, and especially, the concept of ″network target″ has brought a new era in the field of traditional Chinese medicine (TCM). The integrity and systematicness emphasized in network pharmacology comply with the characteristics of holistic view and treatment in Chinese medicine. It can provide deeper insights into the underlying mechanisms of TCM theories, including the illustration on action mechanism of Chinese medicine, selection of pharmacodynamic materials and the combination principles of various Chinese herbs, etc. Therefore, this theory is more suitable for TCM academic characteristics and practical conditions. The key problem in network pharmacology is how to efficiently and quickly identify the interactions between large amounts of drugs and target proteins. As an efficient and high throughput way, drug-target prediction technology can reduce costs, quickly predict the component targets, and provide foundation for the application of TCM network pharmacology. In view of the large amount of compounds and target databases, different prediction methods and technologies have been developed, and used to predict the drug-target interactions. Many virtual screening technologies have been successfully applied to network pharmacology. Based on different prediction principles, drug-target prediction technology can be generally divided into four types： ligand-based prediction, receptor-based prediction, machine learning and combined prediction. In this paper, we are going to review the prediction methods of drug-target interactions and give acomprehensive elaboration of their application in network pharmacology of TCM, hoping to provide beneficial references for various Chinese medicine researchers.

Predicción de la dinámica temporal de egresos hospitalarios por obesidad en niños y jóvenes en Estados Unidos / Prediction of the temporal dynamic of hospital discharges for obesity in children and youth in the united states

The prevalence of overweight in children worldwide is rising in developing countries. Diseases associated with childhood overweight as asthma, sleep apnea and diabetes mellitus, the latter being the most common among children and adolescents, imply another problem: the high cost to health, which has been analyzed by the National Center for Health Statistics in USA. The objective of this research was study mathematically the dynamics of the percentage of hospital discharges for overweight and obese patients between 6-17 years of age in the United States in order to predict the percentage of hospital discharges for obesity in the year 1999 in the context of probabilistic random walk, specifically from a total space of probability for analyzing the probabilistic behavior of increases and decreases, from the years between 1983 and 1998, in the United States. The predicted range for 1999 was 1,17%, which was then compared with data from the National Center for Health, which reported a 1,15%, achievinga 98,01% prediction. It was established a physical and mathematical order underlying the dynamics of hospital discharges rate for obesity in children, making predictions on its trajectory.

La prevalencia de sobrepeso en niños a nivel mundial tiende al incremento especialmente en países en vía de desarrollo. Enfermedades asociadas al sobrepeso infantil como asma, apnea del sueño y diabetes mellitus, siendo esta última la más frecuente en niños y adolescentes, implican otra problemática como es el alto costo en salud, el cual ha sido analizado por el Centro Nacional de Estadísticas de la Salud en los Estados Unidos. El objetivo de esta investigación fue estudiar matemáticamente la dinámica del porcentaje de altas hospitalarias por sobrepeso y obesidad de pacientes de 6 a 17 años de edad en los Estados Unidos con el fin de predecir el porcentaje de altas hospitalarias por obesidad en Estados Unidos para el año 1999, en el contexto de la caminata al azar probabilista, específicamente a partir de un espacio total de probabilidades que permite analizar el comportamiento probabilista de aumentos y disminuciones, a partir de los años comprendidos entre 1983 y 1998, en Estados Unidos. El rango predicho para el año 1999 fue de 1,17%, valor que fue posteriormente comparado con los datos del NCHS, que reportó un 1,15%, logrando una predicción del 98,01%. Se estableció un orden físico y matemático subyacente a la dinámica del porcentaje de altas hospitalarias por obesidad en niños, logrando realizar predicciones en su trayectoria.

Infiltrações intra-articulares de triancinolona hexacetonida na artrite reumatóide: preditores de melhora a curto e longo prazo / Intra-articular injections of triamcinolone hexacetonide in rheumatoid arthritis: short and long-term improvement predictors

Objetivos: Identificar fatores preditivos de resposta à infiltração intra-articular (IIA) com triancinolona hexacetonida (TH). Métodos: Este estudo foi realizado em pacientes de artrite reumatóide (AR) (segundo critérios do American College of Rheumatology) submetidos à IIA (infiltração mono, pauci ou poliarticular). Avaliação: Um observador “cego” avaliou prospectivamente as articulações uma semana (T1), quatro semanas (T4), 12 semanas (T12) e 24 semanas (T24) após IIA. As medidas de desfecho foram Escala Visual Analógica (0-10 cm) em repouso, em movimento e para articulações edemaciadas. As variáveis clínicas e demográficas e aquelas relacionadas à infiltração no início do estudo foram analisadas de acordo com a resposta à IIA. Resultados: Foram estudados 289 pacientes com AR (635 articulações) com média de idade de 48,7 (± 10,68) anos; 48,5% eram caucasianos, EVA para dor global = 6,52 (± 1,73). Na análise univariada, as variáveis relativas às melhores respostas em seguida à IIA (melhora >70%) foram: “IIA no cotovelo e metacarpofalangeanas (MCF)” e “classe funcional II”. Na análise multivariada, “homens” e “não brancos” foram os preditores com melhor resposta à IIA na T4, enquanto “IIA no cotovelo e MCF”, “infiltração poliarticular”, “uso de metotrexato” e “dose total maior de TH” obtiveram a melhor resposta na T24. Conclusão: Foram identificados diversos fatores preditivos de boa resposta à IIA em pacientes com AR. Os preditores de melhor resposta para IIA de TH em longo prazo foram “aplicar IIA no cotovelo e MCF” e “aplicar infiltração poliarticular”. .

Objectives: Identify good response predictors to intra-articular injection (IAI) with triamcinolone hexacetonide (TH). Methods: This study was carried out in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients (American College of Rheumatology criteria) submitted to IAI (mono, pauci or polyarticular injection). Assessment: a “blinded” observer prospectively evaluated joints at one week (T1), four weeks (T4), twelve weeks (T12) and 24 weeks (T24) after IAI. Outcome measurements included Visual Analogue Scale (0-10 cm) at rest, in movement and for swollen joints. Clinical, demographic and variables related to injection at baseline were analyzed according to IAI response. Results: We studied 289 patients with RA (635 joints) with a mean age of 48.7 years (±10.68), 48.5% of them Caucasians, VAS for global pain = 6.52 (±1.73). Under univariate analysis, the variables relating the best responses following IAI (improvement > 70%) were: “elbow and metacarpophalangeal (MCP) IAI, and functional class II”. Under multivariate analysis, “males” and “non-whites” were the predictors with the best response to IAI at T4, while “elbow and MCP IAI”, “polyarticular injection”, “use of methotrexate” and “higher total dose of TH” obtained the best response at T24. Conclusion: Several predictors of good response to IAI in patients with RA were identified. The best-response predictors for TH IAI of long term were “inject elbow and MCP IAI” and “perform polyarticular injection”. .

Efecto de factores ambientales y la asignación del esfuerzo pesquero sobre las capturas de la raya Aetobatus narinari (Rajiformes: Myliobatidae) en el sur del Golfo de México / Effect of environmental factors and fishing effort allocation on catch of the Spotted Eagle Ray Aetobatus narinari (Rajiformes: Myliobatidae) in Southern Gulf of Mexico

Aetobatus narinari represents a fisheries target in Southern Gulf of Mexico, and it is currently considered a Near Threatened species by the IUCN red list. The information available of this batoid fish includes some biological and fishery aspects; nevertheless, little is known about the factors influencing on fishing operations and catches. In order to evaluate the effect of environmental factors and the fishing effort allocation by vessels on the target fishery of A. narinari in this area, a daily basis sampling was carried out on four small-scale vessels, from January to July 2009 (the entire fishing season), in two fishing localities (Campeche and Seybaplaya). A total of 896 rays were recorded from 280 fishing trips. A General Linear Model was used to predict the factors effect on the probability that fishing operations occurred, and on the probability for captures of at least one or three or five rays per vessel-trip. The probability that fishing operations occurred off Campeche was predicted by the lunar cycle, with the highest probability in the new moon period (66%) and a probability smaller than 35% for the other periods. The probability that fishing operations occurred off Seybaplaya was predicted by wind velocity, with higher probabilities at low wind velocity than at high wind velocity, and a 50% probability of fishing operations at 12-15km/h. Catch rates off Seybaplaya were predicted by the vessel´s factor (the effect of fishing effort allocation), the North wind season and sea surface temperature. The probability for captures of at least one and three rays per vessel-trip was predicted by the vessel´s factor and the North wind season. One vessel had higher catch probability (83% for at least one ray and 43% for at least three rays) than the others (69 and 70% for at least one ray and 26% for at least three rays), and during the North wind season the catch probability was higher (96% for at least one ray and 72% for at least three rays) than out of that season (68% for at least one ray and 21% for at least three rays). The probability for capture at least five rays per vessel-trip was predicted by the sea surface temperature and the North wind season. At 23°C the catch probability was of 49% and the probability gradually diminished to 4% at 28°C, and during the North wind season the catch probability was higher (40%) than out of that season (7%). This study shows that some environmental factors and fishermen perceptions and experience (fishing effort allocation) influence on the catch rate of A. narinari, and that these factors must be considered in future studies on elasmobranch fisheries, mainly when comparisons between catch rates among seasons or regions are analyzed.

Aunque existen estudios sobre las pesquerías de batoideos en aguas Mexicanas, falta información sobre la influencia de factores sobre las operaciones pesqueras y las tasas de captura. Para evaluar el efecto de algunos factores en la pesquería dirigida sobre la raya pinta Aetobatus narinari en el Sur del Golfo de México, se realizaron registros diarios de las operaciones pesqueras de cuatro embarcaciones menores en dos localidades (Campeche y Seybaplaya), de enero a julio 2009 (temporada de pesca completa). Fueron registradas 896 rayas en 280 viajes de pesca. Se utilizó el Modelo General Lineal para evaluar la influencia de los factores en las operaciones de pesca y las tasas de captura. La operación pesquera fue predicha por el ciclo lunar (frente a Campeche) y la velocidad del viento (frente a Seybaplaya). Las tasas de captura frente a Seybaplaya fueron predichas por el factor embarcación, la temporada de frentes fríos y la temperatura superficial del mar. Este estudio demuestra que tanto los factores ambientales como las diferencias en la asignación del esfuerzo pesquero entre embarcaciones, influyen en las tasas de captura, por lo que deben ser considerados en estudios futuros que comparen tasas de captura entre estaciones del año y regiones.

Astrology and mental illness

Astrology is an ancient system which was said to be predictive of human nature, character and health, it has a very significant history and at times it gives an idea that it is nearly scientific, but, rigorous experiments with the available scientific methodologies of present times. The history of astrology, ancient significance, dictions and contradictions are discussed in the presented paper.

Tendencias y pronósticos de la tuberculosis, desafíos en etapa de eliminación en La Habana / Trends and predictions of tuberculosis, and challenges towards tuberculosis eradication in Havana City

Objetivo: describir la variación y tendencia de las notificaciones de casos nuevos de tuberculosis en La Habana desde 1995 hasta 2010, así como su proyección y ocurrencia para los años 2011-2013. Métodos: se realizó un estudio de series temporales, se analizaron los porcentajes de variación total y media anual de las tasas según categoría clínica y bacteriológica, edad, distribución por municipios y coinfección tuberculosis/virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana. Las proyecciones se obtuvieron mediante el alisamiento exponencial con 2 parámetros. Resultados: la tasa de nuevos casos de tuberculosis notificados disminuyó de 16,8 en 1995 hasta 9,5 por 100 000 habitantes en 2010 (43,5 % y 2,9 % de variación total y variación media anual, respectivamente). La tasa descendió en 80 % de los municipios y en los grupos de edades de 15 a 64 años y con 65 años o más. La Habana Vieja y Centro Habana mantuvieron las tasas más altas durante casi todo el período. La coinfección tuberculosis/virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana se incrementó de 3/369 (0,8 %) hasta 37/202 (18,3 %) en 2010. Se pronostica un ligero incremento para el trienio 2011-2013 (9,5; 10 y 10,5, respectivamente) y un continuo aumento del número de casos con coinfección tuberculosis/virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana. Conclusiones: la tuberculosis muestra una tendencia descendente casi sostenida en La Habana de 1995 a 2010, con una reducción importante en el período. Sin embargo se observa una tendencia creciente de los casos de tuberculosis/virus de la inmunodeficiencia humana/sida que amenaza la posibilidad de la eliminación. Las notificaciones de casos de tuberculosis se ajustan a los valores esperados, ligeramente por encima de lo pronosticado.

Objectives: to describe the variation and the trend of new tuberculosis case reports in Havana from 1995 to 2010, as well as their projection and occurrence for 2011-2013. Methods: a time series study was conducted, and the annual total and mean variation percentages of rates by clinical and bacteriological categories, age, municipal distribution and TB/HIV co-infection were analyzed. Estimation of projections by using two-parameter exponential smoothing techniques was made. Results: the rate of new reported TB cases decreased from 16.8 in 1995 to 9.5 per 100 000 inhabitants in 2010 (43.5 % and 2.9 % of annual total variation and mean variation respectively). The rate declined by 80 % in the municipalities and in 15-64 and ³ 65 years age groups. Habana Vieja and Centro Habana municipalities kept the highest rates throughout the whole period. TB/HIV coinfection notification increased from 3 out of 369 (0.8 %) cases in 1995 to 37 out of 202 (18.3 %) cases in 2010. A slight increase was estimated for the 2011-2013 period (9.5; 10.0; 10.5 per 100 000 population respectively) in addition to continuous rise of the number of cases with TB/HIV co-infection. Conclusions: the TB trend showed a steady decline in Havana from 1995 to 2010, with substantial reduction in the study period, except for TB/HIV co-infection in which the number of cases increases. The TB case report rates are within the expected values, although slightly above the predictions.

Cattle genetic evaluation: a historical perception / La evaluación genética de vacunos: una percepción histórica / A avaliação genética de bovinos: uma percepçã

Mixed model methodology has been the main statistical tool for unbiased genetic animal evaluation and selection of domestic animals, such as bovines, for over thirty years. Since the use of linear mixed models to obtain the best linear unbiased prediction of the breeding value of the individuals in a population was proposed, there have been scientific advances at the statistical and computational level that have led to implement more complex models describing different biological situations and data structures. This work briefly reviews the history of genetic evaluation in cattle emphasizing on the mixed model methodology in which these evaluations are based. The following topics are discussed in this paper: The unibreed animal model, the derivation of the mixed model equations, some extensions of the unibreed animal model (additive direct and maternal effects, random environmental effects, multiple traits model), the mutibreed animal model, models for the genetic evaluation of longitudinal data and, finally, a brief description of genomic evaluation.

La metodología de modelos mixtos ha sido la principal herramienta estadística para la evaluación y la selección de animales domésticos tales como el vacuno durante más de 30 años. Desde que se propuso el uso de modelos lineales mixtos para obtener los mejores predictores lineales insesgados de los valores genéticos de los individuos en una población se han dado avances científicos a nivel estadístico y computacional que han permitido implementar modelos más complejos, los cuales describen diferentes situaciones biológicas y estructuras de datos. En el presente trabajo se hace una breve revisión de la historia de las evaluaciones genéticas en vacunos haciendo énfasis en la metodología de modelos mixtos en la cual se han basado dichas evaluaciones. Los siguientes tópicos son descritos en este documento: El modelo animal unirracial, la derivación de las ecuaciones de modelos mixtos, algunas extensiones del modelo animal unirracial (efectos aditivos directos y maternos, efectos ambientales aleatorios, modelo para múltiples caracteres), el modelo animal multirracial, modelos para la evaluación genética de datos longitudinales y finalmente una breve descripción de la evaluación genómica.

A metodologia dos modelos mistos tem sido a principal ferramenta estatística para a avaliação e seleção de animais domésticos, como ocorreu em bovinos há mais de trinta anos. Desde sua proposta, o uso de modelos lineares mistos, para obter os melhores preditores lineares imparciais dos valores genéticos de indivíduos de uma população, têm sofrendo avanços científicos a nível estatístico e computacional, tornando-se possível implementar modelos mais complexos que descrevem diferentes situações biológicas e estruturas de dados. No presente trabalho, é feita uma breve revisão histórica sobre as avaliações genéticas em bovinos, com ênfase na metodologia de modelos mistos, na qual estas avaliações são baseadas. Os seguintes tópicos são descritos neste documento: o modelo animal unirracial, a derivação das equações de modelos mistos, algumas extensões do modelo animal unirracial (efeitos aditivos direto e materno, efeitos aleatórios ambientais, modelos multicaracterísticas), o modelo animal multirracial, modelos para a avaliação genética de dados longitudinais e, finalmente, uma breve descrição da avaliação genômica.