Variáveis Clínicas e Laboratoriais na Admissão Hospitalar são Preditores de Fibrilação Atrial Nova em Pacientes Internados com Pneumonia por COVID-19 / Clinical and Laboratory Data Up on Hospital Admission are Predictors of New-Onset Atrial Fibrillation in Patients Hospitalized Due to COVID-19 Pneumonia

Resumo Fundamento Fibrilação atrial nova (FAN) ocorre em pacientes internados por COVID-19. Há controvérsias quanto ao valor preditivo de dados clínicos e laboratoriais à admissão hospitalar para ocorrência de FAN. Objetivos Analisar, à admissão hospitalar, variáveis com potencial preditivo para ocorrência de FAN em pacientes com pneumonia por COVID-19. Método Estudo observacional, retrospectivo, caso-controle. Foram avaliados prontuários eletrônicos de pacientes consecutivos ≥ 60 anos, hospitalizados com pneumonia por COVID-19 entre 1º de março e 15 de julho de 2020. Comparações feitas pelos testes `t' de Student ou qui-quadrado. Foi empregado modelo de risco proporcional de Cox para identificação de preditores de FAN. Considerou-se o valor de p < 0,05 como estatisticamente significativo. Resultados Entre 667 pacientes internados por COVID-19, 201 (30,1%) foram incluídos. FAN foi documentada em 29 pacientes (14,4%) (grupo 1). Grupo 2 foi composto por 162 pacientes que não apresentaram FAN. Dez pacientes excluídos por estarem em FA na admissão hospitalar. Houve diferenças entre os grupos 1 e 2, respectivamente, no tempo de permanência em UTI (11,1±10,5 dias vs. 4,9±7,5 dias; p=0,004), necessidade de ventilação invasiva (82,9% e 32,7%; p<0,001) e mortalidade hospitalar (75,9% vs. 32,1%; p<0,001). No modelo de Cox, idade > 71 anos (hazard ratio [HR]=6,8; p<0,001), leucometria ≤ 7.720 cels.μL-1 (HR=6,6; p<0,001), natremia ≤ 137 mEq.L-1 (HR=5,0; p=0,001), escore SAPS3 > 55 (HR=5,6; p=0,002) e desorientação (HR=2,5; p=0,04) foram preditores independentes de FAN. Conclusões FAN é uma arritmia comum em idosos hospitalizados com pneumonia por COVID-19. Parâmetros clínicos e laboratoriais avaliados na admissão são preditores de FAN durante internação.

Abstract Background New-onset atrial fibrillation (NOAF) occurs in patients hospitalized due to COVID-19. It is still unknown whether clinical and laboratory data assessed upon hospital admission have predictive value for NOAF. Objectives To analyze, upon hospital admission, variables with predictive potential for the occurrence of NOAF in patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Methods Observational, retrospective, case-control study. Electronic medical reports of consecutive patients, 60 years of age or older, hospitalized due to COVID-19 pneumonia between March 1st and July 15th, 2020, were reviewed. Non-paired Student or chi-squared tests compared variables. A Cox proportional hazard model was employed to identify independent predictors of NOAF. P value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. Results Among 667 patients hospitalized due to COVID-19, 201 (30.1%) fulfilled the inclusion criteria. NOAF was documented in 29 patients (14.4%), composing group 1. Group 2 was composed of 162 patients without NOAF. Ten patients were excluded due to the AF rhythm upon hospital admission. In groups 1 and 2, there were differences in overall in-hospital survival rate (24.1 % vs. 67.9%; p<0.001), length of stay in ICU (11.1 ± 10.5 days vs. 4.9 ± 7.5 days; p=0.004) and need for mechanical ventilation rate (82.9% vs. 32.7%; p<0.001). In the Cox model, age > 71 y/o (HR=6.8; p<0.001), total leukocyte count ≤ 7,720 cels.μL-¹ (HR=6.6; p<0.001), serum [Na+] ≤ 137 mEq.L-¹ (HR=5.0; p=0.001), SAPS3 score > 55 (HR=5.6; p=0.002), and disorientation (HR=2.5; p=0.04) on admission were independent predictors of NOAF. Conclusion NOAF is a common arrhythmia in elderly hospitalized patients with COVID-19 pneumonia. Clinical and laboratory parameters evaluated on admission have a predictive value for the occurrence of NOAF during hospitalization.

Factors affecting the clinical decision-making expectations of patients undergoing digestive endoscopy / 中国基层医药

Objective:To investigate the influential factors of patients' expectations for clinical decision-making during digestive endoscopy.Methods:A total of 120 patients who underwent digestive endoscopy were admitted to the Endoscopy Center of Zhejiang Provincial People's Hospital from January 2020 to January 2022. Their general information was collected, and their clinical decision-making expectations were evaluated using the Control Preference Scale (CPS). The influential factors of clinical decision-making expectations were determined using multiple linear regression analysis.Results:The total CPS score for 120 patients undergoing digestive endoscopy was (50.72 ± 5.48) points, including (14.12 ± 1.48) points for information needs, (25.17 ± 3.52) points for communication needs, and (11.43 ± 2.04) points for decision-making needs. Univariate analysis showed that the CPS score of patients undergoing digestive endoscopy was related to gender, age, marital status, educational level, number of children, and type of visit ( t = 2.68, 2.61, 2.82, 3.28, 3.61, 2.39, all P < 0.05). Multiple linear regression analysis showed that gender, age, educational level, and type of visit were the influential factors of clinical decision-making expectations for patients undergoing digestive endoscopy ( β = -0.71, 1.07, 0.53, -1.15, all P < 0.05). Conclusion:Gender, age, educational level, and type of visit are influential factors of patients' expectations for clinical decision-making during digestive endoscopy. Patients have a clear need for communication during clinical decision-making, and medical staff can strengthen communication with patients, correctly guiding them to participate in clinical decision-making expectations.

Associations of cardiac biomarkers with stroke severity and short-term outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke / 国际脑血管病杂志

Objective:To investigate associations between cardiac biomarkers with stroke severity and short-term outcome in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).Methods:Patients with AIS admitted to the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University from June 2018 to February 2024 whose etiological classification was large artery atherosclerosis (LAA), small vessel occlusion (SVO) or cardioembolism (CE) were included retrospectively. According to the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at admission, patients were divided into mild stroke group (≤8) and moderate to severe stroke group (>8). According to the modified Rankin Scale score at discharge, patients were divided into good outcome group (≤2) and poor outcome group (>2). Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent correlation between cardiac biomarkers and short-term outcome. The predictive value of cardiac biomarkers for poor outcome in patients with AIS and different stroke etiology subtypes were evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Results:A total of 2 151 patients with AIS were enrolled, including 1 256 males (58.4%), aged 67.40±11.34 years. 1 079 patents were LAA type (50.2%), 679 were SVO type (31.6%), and 393 were CE type (18.3%); 1 223 were mild stroke (56.86%) and 928 (43.14%) were moderate to severe stroke; 1 357 patients (63.09%) had good short-term outcome, and 794 (36.91%) had poor short-term outcome. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that N-terminal pro-B type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), NT-proBNP/creatine kinase (CK) isoenzyme MB (CK-MB) ratio, and CK-MB/CK ratio were independent risk factors for poor short-term outcome. ROC curve analysis shows that the CK-MB/CK ratio had a higher predictive value for short-term poor outcome in patients with AIS (the area under the curve, 0.859, 95% confidence interval 0.839-0.879). Various cardiac biomarkers had a higher predictive value for short-term outcome of CE type and LAA type, but the predictive value for short-term outcome of SVO type was lower. Conclusions:Cardiac biomarkers are associated with the severity and poor outcome of AIS. NT-proBNP/CK-MB and CK-MB/CK ratios have higher predictive value for short-term poor outcome of AIS, especially in patients with CE type.

Alergia a la leche de vaca: ¿se pueden evitar las pruebas de provocación oral? Un análisis probabilístico basado en datos clínicos / Cow's milk allergy: Can oral food challenges be avoided? A probabilistic analysis based on clinical data

Introducción. La prueba de provocación oral (PPO) para el diagnóstico de alergia a las proteínas de la leche de la vaca (APLV) presenta riesgos y requiere de recursos. Nuestro objetivo fue evaluar condiciones y pruebas complementarias para identificar una alta probabilidad de APLV. Población y métodos. Análisis secundario sobre estudio de pacientes atendidos en una unidad de alergia entre 2015 y 2018. Se determinaron las probabilidades prepruebas asociadas a los síntomas y sus combinaciones, y las probabilidades pospruebas luego de realizadas pruebas cutáneas y determinación de inmunoglobulina E (IgE) sérica. Resultados. Se evaluó la información de 239 pacientes. Se observaron probabilidades mayores al 95 % en pacientes con angioedema y combinación de urticaria y vómitos. Usando puntos de corte propuestos por Calvani et al., la combinación de vómitos con rinitis, sin angioedema, también superó el 95 %. Conclusión. Se ofrece una metodología para identificar pacientes en los que puede diagnosticarse APLV sin realización de PPO.

Introduction. The oral food challenge (OFC) for the diagnosis of cow's milk protein allergy (CMPA) poses risks and requires resources. Our objective was to assess conditions and complementary tests used to identify a high probability of CMPA. Population and methods. Secondary analysis of a study of patients seen at a unit of allergy between 2015 and 2018. Pre-testing probabilities associated with symptoms and their combinations and post-testing probabilities after skin prick testing and serum immunoglobulin E (IgE) levels were determined. Results. The data from 239 patients were assessed. A probability greater than 95% was observed for angioedema and a combination of urticaria and vomiting. Based on the cut-off points proposed by Calvani et al., the combination of vomiting with rhinitis, without angioedema, also exceeded 95%. Conclusion. A methodology is provided to identify patients in whom CMPA may be diagnosed without an OFC.

Instrumentos para la evaluación del riesgo de lesiones por presión en adultos en estado crítico: scoping review / Risk assessment instruments for pressure ulcer in adults in critical situation: a scoping review / Instrumentos para a avaliação do risco de lesões por pressão para adultos em situação crítica: scoping review*

Objetivo: mapear los instrumentos para la evaluación del riesgo de lesiones por presión en adultos en situación crítica en una unidad de terapia intensiva; identificar los indicadores de desempeño de los instrumentos y la apreciación de los usuarios con respecto al uso/limitaciones de los instrumentos. Método: scoping review. Para redactar el estudio se utilizó la extensión Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews. La investigación se realizó mediante la herramienta de búsqueda EBSCOhost en 8 bases de datos, resultando 1846 estudios, de los cuales 22 conforman la muestra. Resultados: se identificaron dos grandes grupos de instrumentos: los generalistas [Braden, Braden (ALB), Emina, Norton-MI, RAPS y Waterlow]; y los específicos (CALCULATE, Cubbin & Jackson, EVARUCI, RAPS-ICU, Song & Choi, Suriaidi y Sanada y el índice COMHON). En cuanto al valor predictivo, EVARUCI y CALCULATE mostraron los mejores resultados de indicadores de desempeño. En cuanto a las apreciaciones/limitaciones señaladas por los usuarios, destaca la escala CALCULATE, seguida de la EVARUCI y la RAPS-ICU, aunque aún necesitan ajustes futuros. Conclusión: el mapeo mostró que las evidencias son suficientes para indicar uno o más instrumentos para la evaluación del riesgo de lesiones por presión en adultos críticos en una unidad de cuidados intensivos.

Objective: to map the instruments for risk assessment of pressure ulcers in adults in critical situation in intensive care units; identify performance indicators of the instrument, and the appreciation of users regarding the instruments' use/limitations. Method: a scoping review. We used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews in the writing of the study. We carried out the searches in the EBSCOhost search tool for 8 databases, resulting in 1846 studies, of which 22 studies compose the sample. Results: we identified two big instrument groups: generalist [Braden, Braden (ALB), Emina, Norton-MI, RAPS, and Waterlow]; and specific (CALCULATE, Cubbin & Jackson, EVARUCI, RAPS-ICU, Song & Choi, Suriaidi and Sanada, and COMHON index). Regarding the predictive value, EVARUCI and CALCULATE presented better results for performance indicators. Concerning appreciation/limitations indicated by users, we highlight the CALCULATE scale, followed by EVARUCI and RAPS-ICU, although they still need future adjustments. Conclusion: the mapping of the literature showed that the evidence is sufficient to indicate one or more instruments for the risk assessment of pressure ulcers for adults in critical situation in intensive care units.

Objetivo: mapear os instrumentos para avaliação do risco de lesões por pressão nos adultos em situação crítica em unidade de cuidados intensivos; identificar os indicadores de desempenho dos instrumentos e a apreciação dos utilizadores quanto ao uso/às limitações dos instrumentos. Método: scoping review. O Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews foi utilizado para a redação do estudo. A pesquisa foi realizada na ferramenta de busca EBSCOhost em oito bases de dados, resultando em 1846 estudos, dos quais 22 compõem a amostra. Resultados: identificaram-se dois grandes grupos de instrumentos: os genéricos [Braden, Braden (ALB), Emina, Norton-MI, RAPS e Waterlow]; e os específicos (CALCULATE, Cubbin & Jackson, EVARUCI, RAPS-ICU, Song & Choi, Suriaidi e Sanada e o índice de COMHON). Quanto ao valor preditivo, a EVARUCI e a CALCULATE apresentaram os melhores resultados de indicadores de desempenho. Em relação à apreciação/às limitações apontadas pelos utilizadores, destacam-se a escala CALCULATE, seguindo-se da EVARUCI e da RAPS-ICU, embora ainda necessitem de ajustes futuros. Conclusão: o mapeamento mostrou que as evidências são suficientes para indicar um ou mais instrumentos para avaliação do risco de lesões por pressão nos adultos em situação crítica em unidade de cuidados intensivos.

Are we ready to stratify BI-RADS 4 lesions observed on magnetic resonance imaging? A real-world noninferiority/equivalence analysis / Estamos prontos para estratificar lesões BI-RADS 4 na ressonância magnética? Uma análise de não inferioridade/equivalência do mundo real

Abstract Objective: To demonstrate that positive predictive values (PPVs) for suspicious (category 4) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings that have been stratified are equivalent to those stipulated in the American College of Radiology Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) for mammography and ultrasound. Materials and Methods: This retrospective analysis of electronic medical records generated between January 4, 2016 and December 29, 2021 provided 365 patients in which 419 suspicious (BI-RADS category 4) findings were subcategorized as BI-RADS 4A, 4B or 4C. Malignant and nonmalignant outcomes were determined by pathologic analyses, follow-up, or both. For each subcategory, the level 2 PPV (PPV2) was calculated and tested for equivalence/noninferiority against the established benchmarks. Results: Of the 419 findings evaluated, 168 (40.1%) were categorized as malignant and 251 (59.9%) were categorized as nonmalignant. The PPV2 for subcategory 4A was 14.2% (95% CI: 9.3-20.4%), whereas it was 41.2% (95% CI: 32.8-49.9%) for subcategory 4B and 77.2% (95% CI: 68.4-84.5%) for subcategory 4C. Multivariate analysis showed a significantly different cancer yield for each subcategory (p < 0.001). Conclusion: We found that stratification of suspicious findings by MRI criteria is feasible, and malignancy probabilities for sub-categories 4B and 4C are equivalent to the values established for the other imaging methods in the BI-RADS. Nevertheless, low suspicion (4A) findings might show slightly higher malignancy rates.

Resumo Objetivo: Demonstrar que os valores preditivos positivos (VPPs) para lesões suspeitas (categoria 4) identificadas por ressonância magnética (RM) são equivalentes aos estipulados no ACR BI-RADS para mamografia e ultrassonografia. Materiais e Métodos: Análise retrospectiva de dados em prontuário eletrônico, entre 4 de janeiro de 2016 e 29 de dezembro de 2021, resultou em 365 pacientes elegíveis, com 419 lesões classificadas como BI-RADS 4A, 4B ou 4C. Desfechos malignos e não malignos foram determinados por estudo patológico e/ou acompanhamento. Realizamos o cálculo do VPP nível 2 (VPP2) para cada subcategoria e testamos para não inferioridade/equivalência em relação aos valores de referência. Resultados: Dos 419 achados, 168 (40,1%) foram malignos e 251 (59,9%), não malignos. O VPP2 para subcategoria 4A foi 14,2% (IC 95%: 9,3-20,4%), para 4B foi 41,2% (IC 95%:, 32,8-49,9%) e para 4C foi 77,2% (IC 95%: 68,4-84,5%). Análise multivariada demonstrou diferenças estatisticamente significantes entre as subcategorias (p < 0,001). Conclusão: A estratificação de achados suspeitos por RM é factível, sendo que a probabilidade de malignidade das subcategorias 4B e 4C é equivalente à estabelecida para outros métodos de imagem pelo BI-RADS. Contudo, lesões de baixa suspeição (4A) podem apresentar taxas mais altas de malignidade.

Generación de un test predictivo para el diagnóstico de laetiología de la hemorragia digestiva alta variceal

Nuestro objetivo fue desarrollar un test diagnóstico para predecir la etiología de la Hemorragia Digestiva Alta Variceal (HDAV). Realizamos un estudio de cohorte retrospectivo. Se revisaron historias clínicas de pacientes mayores de 18 años con Hemorragia Digestiva Alta (HDA) que acudieron al servicio de emergencia del Hospital Cayetano Heredia (HCH) de Lima-Perú entre el 2019 a 2022, se recolectaron datos demográficos, de laboratorio y clínicos; posteriormente, se identificaron variables predictivas de HDAV mediante una regresión logística múltiple. A cada variable con capacidad predictiva se les asignó un puntaje con un punto de corte y sirvió para construir una escala predictiva de HDAV. Se incluyeron 197 historias clínicas de pacientes con HDA, de los cuales 127 (64%) tuvieron sangrado de causa no variceal, y, 70 (36%), variceal. Se identificaron 4 factores predictivos independientes: hematemesis (vómito rojo) (OR: 4,192, IC 95%: 1,586-11,082), recuento de plaquetas (OR: 3,786, IC 95%: 1,324-10,826), antecedente de HDA (OR: 2,634, IC 95%: 1,017-6,820), signos de enfermedad hepática crónica (OR: 11,244, IC 95%: 3,067-35,047), con los que se construyó una escala predictiva, con un punto de corte >7 y ≤7; que mostró una sensibilidad, especificidad, valor predictivo positivo, valor predictivo negativo, cociente de probabilidad positivo, y, negativo de 58,6%, 90,6%, 77,4%, 79,9%, 6,20, y 0,46 respectivamente. En conclusión, la escala predictiva con un punto de corte >7 es útil para predecir la presencia de la HDAV en pacientes que acuden a la emergencia por HDA.

Our objective was to develop a diagnostic test to predict the etiology of Variceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding (VUGIB). We conducted a retrospective cohort study. Medical records of patients over 18 years of age with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding (UGIB) who attended the emergency service of Hospital Cayetano Heredia (HCH) in Lima-Peru between 2019 and 2022 were reviewed; demographic, laboratory and clinical data were collected. Subsequently, predictive variables of variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (VUGIB) were identified using multiple logistic regression. Each variable with predictive capacity was assigned a score with a cut-off point and served to build a predictive scale for VUGIB. 197 medical records of patients with UGIB were included, of which 127 (64%) had non-variceal bleeding, and 70 (36%), variceal. Four independent predictors were identified: hematemesis (red vomit) (OR: 4,192, 95% CI: 1.586-11.082), platelet count (OR: 3.786, 95% CI: 1.324-10.826), history of UGIB (OR: 2.634, 95% CI: 1.017-6.820), signs of chronic liver disease (OR: 11.244, 95% CI: 3.067-35.047), with which a predictive scale was constructed, with a cut-off point >7 and ≤7; which showed a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, and negative of 58.6%, 90.6%, 77.4%, 79.9%, 6.20, and 0.46 respectively. In conclusion, the predictive scale with a cut-off point >7 is useful for predicting the presence of VUGIB in patients who attend the emergency room for UGIB.

A prospective validation and comparison of three multivariate models for prediction of difficult intubation in adult patients

Abstract Purpose Several bedside clinical tests have been proposed to predict difficult tracheal intubation. Unfortunately, when used alone, these tests show less than ideal prediction performance. Some multivariate tests have been proposed considering that the combination of some criteria could lead to better prediction performance. The goal of our research was to compare three previously described multivariate models in a group of adult patients undergoing general anesthesia. Methods This study included 220 patients scheduled for elective surgery under general anesthesia. A standardized airway evaluation which included modified Mallampati class (MM), thyromental distance (TMD), mouth opening distance (MOD), head and neck movement (HNM), and jaw protrusion capacity was performed before anesthesia. Multivariate models described by El-Ganzouri et al., Naguib et al., and Langeron et al. were calculated using the airway data. After anesthesia induction, an anesthesiologist performed the laryngoscopic classification and tracheal intubation. The sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the models were calculated. Results The overall incidence of difficult laryngoscopic view (DLV) was 12.7%. The area under curve (AUC) for the Langeron, Naguib, and El-Ganzouri models were 0.834, 0.805, and 0.752, respectively, (Langeron > El-Ganzouri, p= 0.004; Langeron = Naguib, p= 0.278; Naguib = El-Ganzouri, p= 0.101). The sensitivities were 85.7%, 67.9%, and 35.7% for the Langeron, Naguib, and El-Ganzouri models, respectively. Conclusion The Langeron model had higher overall prediction performance than that of the El-Ganzouri model. Additionally, the Langeron score had higher sensitivity than the Naguib and El-Ganzouri scores, and therefore yielded a lower incidence of false negatives.

Estimación del riesgo cardiovascular global en hipertensos de la Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Cienfuegos

Fundamento: a pesar de la importancia del cálculo del riesgo cardiovascular global en hipertensos y los beneficios de su implementación en la Atención Primaria de Salud, en la Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Cienfuegos son insuficientes los estudios sobre su estimación. Objetivo: determinar el riesgo cardiovascular global en hipertensos de la Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Cienfuegos en el año 2021. Métodos: se realizó un estudio descriptivo, transversal y correlacional. La muestra estuvo conformada por 105 hipertensos entre 40-80 años de la Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Cienfuegos en el 2021. Las variables estudiadas fueron: edad, género, colesterol total, tabaquismo, presión arterial sistólica, diabetes mellitus diagnosticada y el riesgo cardiovascular global. Se calcularon la frecuencia absoluta y relativa de las variables y se aplicó la Chi cuadrado de Pearson en la asociación de las variables y el riesgo cardiovascular bajo con un nivel de significación p=0,05. Los resultados se presentaron en tablas. Resultados: predominó el género femenino, el grupo etáreo de 50-69 años, los no diabéticos y los no fumadores, con colesterol normal y prehipertensos. El 93,3 % presentó riesgo cardiovascular global bajo y el 6,7 % de moderado a crítico. Los pacientes no diabéticos y con presión arterial sistólica normal presentaron asociación significativa con el riesgo cardiovascular bajo. Conclusiones: los hipertensos de la Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Cienfuegos presentan un riesgo cardiovascular global bajo, se mostró una correlación entre el riesgo cardiovascular bajo y la presión arterial sistólica normal y los antecedentes de no diabetes, lo que condicionaría protección a eventos cardiovasculares y cerebrovasculares en el futuro.

Background: despite the importance of calculating global cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients and the benefits of its implementation in Primary Health Care, studies on its estimation are insufficient at the University of Medical Sciences of Cienfuegos. Objective: to determine the global cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients at the University of Medical Sciences of Cienfuegos in the year 2021. Methods: a descriptive, cross-sectional and correlational study was carried out. The sample consisted of 105 hypertensive patients between 40-80 years of age from the University of Medical Sciences of Cienfuegos in 2021. The variables studied were: age, gender, total cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure, diagnosed diabetes mellitus, and global cardiovascular risk. The absolute and relative frequency of the variables were calculated and Pearson's Chi square was applied in the association of the variables and low cardiovascular risk with a significance level of p=0.05. The results were presented in tables. Results: the female gender, the age group of 50-69 years, non-diabetics and non-smokers, with normal cholesterol and prehypertensive predominated. 93.3 % presented low overall cardiovascular risk and 6.7 % moderate to critical. Non-diabetic patients with normal systolic blood pressure presented a significant association with low cardiovascular risk. Conclusions: hypertensive patients at the University of Medical Sciences of Cienfuegos have a low overall cardiovascular risk, a correlation was shown between low cardiovascular risk and normal systolic blood pressure and a history of non-diabetes, which would determine protection against cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in the future

Combined HAT score and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio predict symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke / 国际脑血管病杂志

Objective:To investigate the value of hemorrhage after thrombolytic (HAT) score and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in combination predicting symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).Methods:Consective patients with AIS received intravenous thrombolysis with ateplase in Tianjin TEDA Hospital from January 2016 to December 2021 were retrospectively enrolled. sICH was defined as cerebral CT showing hemorrhage at any part of the brain after intravenous thrombolysis, and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score was increased by≥4 compared with the baseline, or there was a manifestation indicating clinical aggravation. Univariate analysis was used to compare the baseline data of sICH group and non-sICH group. A binary multivariate logistic regression model was used to determine the independent influencing factors of sICH. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the value of HAT score and NLR in combination predicting sICH. Results:A total of 429 patients with AIS were enrolled. Univariate analysis showed that there were significant differences in atrial fibrillation, systolic blood pressure, NLR, HAT score and NIHSS score between the sICH group and the non-sICH group (all P<0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that NLR (odds ratio [ OR] 1.405, 95% confidence interval [ CI] 1.193-2.958), HAT score ( OR 1.512, 95% CI 1.207-3.169) and NIHSS score ( OR 1.221, 95% CI 1.082-2.634) had significant independent correlation with sICH after adjusting for atrial fibrillation and systolic blood pressure. The ROC curve showed that the areas under the curve of HAT score, NLR and their combination predicting sICH were 0.719 (95% CI 0.609-0.832), 0.723 (95% CI 0.618-0.835) and 0.854 (95% CI 0.765-0.931), respectively. The areas under the curve of the two methods in combination were significantly larger than those of the single method ( P=0.029 and 0.032, respectively), and their sensitivity and specificity were 74.1% and 83.5% respectively. Conclusion:Combined HAT score and NLR is of high value in predicting sICH after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with AIS, and has clinical application potential.

Predictive score of the outcomes after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke / 国际脑血管病杂志

Stroke has become the leading cause of disability and death in China. At present, intravenous thrombolysis is one of the most effective treatment for acute ischemic stroke, but not all patients can benefit from intravenous thrombolysis. In recent years, the exploration of predictive models for the outcomes after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke has attracted increasing attention. This article systematically reviews the scoring models for predicting the functional outcome, death and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke, with the aim of screening the scoring system suitable for clinical application and providing reference for the clinical diagnosis, evaluation and treatment of acute ischemic stroke.

Eosinophil-to-neutrophil ratio predicts outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke receiving intravenous thrombolysis / 国际脑血管病杂志

Objective:To investigate the predicting value of eosinophil-to-neutrophil ratio (ENR) for outcomes at 3 months after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).Methods:Patients with AIS received intravenous thrombolysis in the Department of Neurology, Huai'an First People's Hospital from July 2019 to July 2022 were included retrospectively. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to determine the independent correlation between ENR and outcomes at 3 months after intravenous thrombolysis. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of ENR levels for poor outcomes at 3 months after intravenous thrombolysis. Results:A total of 352 patients with AIS receiving intravenous thrombolysis were enrolled, including 240 men (68.1%), age 66.46±12.00 years old. The median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score was 8 (interquartile range, 5-13). At 3 months after onset, 215 patients (61.0%) had good outcomes, 137 (38.9%) had poor outcomes. Univariate analysis showed that the median ENR×10 2 level of the poor outcome group was significantly lower than that of the good outcome group ( Z= –7.305, P<0.01). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that lower ENR×10 2 was an independent risk factor for poor outcomes at 3 months after intravenous thrombolysis (odds ratio 0.619, 95% confidence interval 0.514-0.745; P<0.01). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve for ENR×10 2 predicting the poor outcomes after intravenous thrombolysis was 0.731 (95% confidence interval 0.678-0.784; P<0.01). The optimal cutoff value was 0.625 and the corresponding sensitivity and specificity were 94% and 40%, respectively. Conclusion:Lower ENR before intravenous thrombolysis in patients with AIS is independently associated with the poor outcomes at 3 months.

Correlation between serum uric acid/albumin ratio and large atherosclerosis stroke, its severity and short-term outcome / 国际脑血管病杂志

Objective:To investigate the correlation between serum uric acid to albumin ratio (UAR) and large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA), its severity and short-term outcome.Methods:Patients with acute ischemic stroke admitted to the Department of Neurology, the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University from September 2017 to August 2022 were retrospectively enrolled. They were classified into LAA and non-LAA according to the TOAST etiological criteria. Patients with LAA were further divided into mild stroke group (≤8) and moderate to severe stroke group (>8) according to the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at admission, and good outcome group (≤2) and poor outcome group (>2) according to the modified Rankin Scale score at discharge. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the correlation between UAR and LAA, its severity and short-term outcome. The predictive value of UAR for poor outcomes in patients with LAA was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results:A total of 4 178 patients with acute ischemic stroke were enrolled, including 2 751 males (65.8%), aged 61.95±10.73 years. There were 2 000 (47.9%) patients with LAA, including 1 112 (55.6%) mild stroke and 888 (44.4%) moderate to severe stroke; 813 (40.65%) had good short-term outcomes and 1 187 (59.35%) had poor outcomes. UAR in the LAA group was significantly higher than that in the non-LAA group ( P<0.05). In patients with LAA, the UAR of the moderate to severe stroke group and the short-term poor outcome group were significantly higher than that of the mild stroke group and the short-term good outcome group, respectively (all P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the UAR was an independent risk factor for LAA (odds ratio [ OR] 1.043, 95% confidence interval [ CI] 1.016-1.071; P=0.002), its severity ( OR 2.000, 95% CI 1.860-2.151; P<0.001), and short-term poor outcomes ( OR 1.456, 95% CI 1.379-1.537; P<0.001). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of UAR for predicting short-term poor outcomes in patients with LAA was 0.727 (95% CI 0.704-0.750; P<0.001). The optimal cutoff value was 6.62, and the sensitivity and specificity were 86.6% and 56.7%, respectively. The area under the curve of UAR for predicting short-term poor outcomes in patients with LAA was greater than that predicted solely by uric acid and albumin. Conclusions:UAR is associated with LAA, its severity and poor prognosis, and has higher predictive value for poor outcomes in patients with LAA.

A decision tree model to predict successful endovascular recanalization of non-acute internal carotid artery occlusion / 国际脑血管病杂志

Objective:To investigate predictive factors for successful endovascular recanalization in patients with non-acute symptomatic internal carotid artery occlusion (SICAO), to develop a decision tree model using the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) algorithm, and to evaluate the predictive performance of the model.Methods:Patients with non-acute SICAO received endovascular therapy at 8 comprehensive stroke centers in China were included retrospectively. They were randomly assigned to a training set and a validation set. In the training set, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm was used to screen important variables, and a decision tree prediction model was constructed based on CART algorithm. The model was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and confusion matrix in the validation set.Results:A total of 511 patients with non-acute SICAO were included. They were randomly divided into a training set ( n=357) and a validation set ( n=154) in a 7:3 ratio. The successful recanalization rates after endovascular therapy were 58.8% and 58.4%, respectively. There was no statistically significant difference ( χ2=0.007, P=0.936). A CART decision tree model consisting of 5 variables, 5 layers and 9 classification rules was constructed using the six non-zero-coefficient variables selected by LASSO regression. The predictive factors for successful recanalization included fewer occluded segments, proximal tapered stump, ASITN/SIR collateral grading of 1-2, ischemic stroke, and a recent event to endovascular therapy time of 1-30 d. ROC analysis showed that the area under curve of the decision tree model in the training set was 0.810 (95% confidence interval 0.764-0.857), and the optimal cut-off value for predicting successful recanalization was 0.71. The area under curve in the validation set was 0.763 (95% confidence interval 0.687-0.839). The accuracy was 70.1%, precision was 81.4%, sensitivity was 63.3%, and specificity was 79.7%. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test in both groups showed P>0.05. Conclusion:Based on the type of ischemic event, the time from the latest event to endovascular therapy, proximal stump morphology, the number of occluded segments, and the ASITN/SIR collateral grading constructed the decision tree model can effectively predict successful recanalization after non-acute SICAO endovascular therapy.

Platelet aggregation rate predicts early neurological deterioration after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke / 国际脑血管病杂志

Objective:To investigate the predictive value of platelet aggregation rate for early neurological deterioration (END) after intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).Methods:Consecutive patients with AIS received IVT at the Department of Neurology, Haikou Hospital Affiliated to Xiangya School of Medical, Central South University from November 2020 to July 2023 were retrospectively included. The maximum platelet aggregation rate (MAR) was measured using the PL-12 multi-parameter platelet function analyzer. END was defined as an increase of ≥4 from baseline in the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score within 24 h after IVT. The demographic, baseline data, laboratory findings, and imaging results between the END and non-END groups were compared, and the dynamic changes in MAR induced by arachidonic acid (AA) and adenosine diphosphate (ADP) before, immediately after, and 2 h after IVT were observed. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the independent risk factors for END. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to analyze the predictive value of MAR for END at different time points. Results:A total of 300 patients were included, aged 64.88±8.82 years, with a median baseline NIHSS score of 11 (interquartile range, 8-15) and the onset-to-needle time was 172.03±53.96 min. Among them, 66 patients (22.0%) developed END. The MAR-AA and MAR-DP levels before, immediately after, and 2 h after IVT in the END group were significantly higher than those in the non-END group (all P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that MAR-AA (odds ratio 1.098, 95% confidence interval 1.039-1.161; P<0.001) and MAR-ADP (odds ratio 1.100, 95% confidence interval 1.038-1.167; P<0.001) at 2 h after IVT were the independent risk factors for END. ROC curve analysis shows that MAR-AA and MAR-ADP before, immediately after, and 2 h after IVT had good predictive value for END. Among them, the area under the curve corresponding to MAR-AA and MAR-ADP at 2 h after IVT was the largest, with values of 0.745 and 0.710, respectively. The optimal cutoff value of MAR-AA was 39.28%, and the sensitivity and specificity for predicting END were 74.2% and 76.1%, respectively. The optimal cutoff value of MAR-ADP was 43.35%, and the sensitivity and specificity for predicting END were 69.7% and 66.2%, respectively. Conclusion:The MAR measured by PL-12 is closely associated with the risk of END in patients with AIS after IVT treatment, and has good predictive value for END.

Predictive value of hepatic fibrosis-4 index for early neurological deterioration in patients with ischemic stroke after intravenous thrombolysis / 国际脑血管病杂志

Objective:To investigate the correlation between the degree of hepatic fibrosis and early neurological deterioration (END) after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) and its predictive value.Methods:Patients with AIS received intravenous thrombolysis at Nanjing Jiangbei Hospital from January 2018 to March 2023 were retrospectively included. Hepatic fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4) was used to evaluate the degree of hepatic fibrosis in patients. FIB-4 ≥ 2.67 was defined as severe hepatic fibrosis. END was defined as an increase of ≥4 from baseline on the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score within 24 h after intravenous thrombolysis. The relevant factors of END were analyzed through univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression model. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to analyze the predictive value of FIB-4 for END. Results:A total of 313 patients were included, of which 184 (58.8%) were male, aged 64.8±11.8 years old. The median baseline NIHSS score was 6 (interquartile range, 4-9), and the median FIB-4 was 1.76 (interquartile range, 1.28-2.56). Forty-five patients (14.4%) experienced END. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that after adjusting for other confounding factors, higher FIB-4 was significantly independently correlated with END (odds ratio 2.121, 95% confidence interval 1.422-3.162; P=0.001). ROC curve analysis shows that FIB-4 has a good predictive value for END (the area under the curve 0.689, 95% confidence interval 0.595-0.784; P=0.001). The optimal cutoff value of FIB-4 was 1.82, and its sensitivity and specificity in predicting END were 71.1% and 54.9%, respectively. Conclusion:FIB-4 has good predictive value for END in patients with AIS after intravenous thrombolysis.

Predictive value of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio for stroke-associated pneumonia in patients with acute ischemic stroke / 国际脑血管病杂志

Objective:To investigate the predictive value of neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR) at admission for stroke associated pneumonia (SAP) in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).Methods:Patients with AIS admitted to the First Affiliated Hospital of Kunming Medical University from January 2019 to June 2020 were retrospectively included. The demographic information, vascular risk factors, severity of stroke at admission, and NLR data of the patients were collected. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the independent correlation between NLR and SAP. The NLR was divided into quartile groups to further analyze the trend relationship between NLR and SAP. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the diagnostic value of NLR for SAP. Results:A total of 316 patients with AIS were enrolled, including 200 males (63.29%) with an age of 63.86±13.78 years. The median baseline Nationanl Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score was 4 (interquartile range, 2-9), and the median NLR was 4.42 (interquartile range, 3.17-6.70). Ninety-three patients (29.43%) experienced SAP. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that NLR was an independent risk factor for SAP in patients with AIS (odds ratio 1.189, 95% confidence interval 1.077-1.313; P<0.001). Moreover, SAP risk increases with the increase of NLR ( Ptrend<0.001). Compared to the first quartile, the risk of SAP increased 9.991 times in the fourth quartile (95% confidence interval 2.912-34.279; P<0.001). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of NLR for SAP prediction was 0.793 (95% confidence interval 0.737-0.850), with an optimal cutoff value of 5.475. The sensitivity and specificity for predicting SAP were 66.67% and 79.82%, respectively. Conclusion:NLR at admission is an independent risk factor for SAP in patients with AIS and has certain predictive value for SAP.

Pan-immune-inflammation value predicts in-hospital mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke admitted to the intensive care units / 国际脑血管病杂志

Objective:To investigate the predictive value of pan-immune-inflammation value (PIV) for in-hospital mortality in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) admitted to intensive care unit (ICU).Methods:The clinical data of the first-ever AIS patients admitted to the ICU in the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) -Ⅳ of the United States were retrospectively included and analyzed. According to whether the patients died in the hospital, they were divided into a survival group and a death group, and the differences in baseline data between the two groups were compared. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to analyze independent influencing factors of in-hospital mortality in patients. Receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of PIV on in-hospital mortality. Results:A total of 1 068 first-ever AIS patients admitted to the ICU were included, with a median age of 69 years. There were 543 males (50.84%), and 182 (17.05%) experienced in-hospital mortality. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that after adjusting for potential confounding factors, a higher PIV (>1 555.71) was an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality in patients (odds ratio 1.924, 95% confidence interval 1.093-3.387; P=0.023). The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the area under the curve for predicting in-hospital mortality by PIV was 0.605 (95% confidence interval 0.556-0.654), with an optimal cutoff value of 1 199.93. The sensitivity and specificity for predicting in-hospital mortality were 48.9% and 70.2%, respectively. Conclusions:A higher PIV is an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality in AIS patients admitted to ICU, which may help identify AIS patients with a higher risk of in-hospital mortality in the ICU.

Development of a nomogram prediction model for futile recanalization after endovascular therapy in patients with acute basilar artery occlusion / 国际脑血管病杂志

Objective:To develop a nomogram model for early prediction of the risk of futile recanalization after endovascular therapy (EVT) in patients with acute basilar artery occlusion (ABAO).Methods:Patients with ABAO who underwent EVT and achieved successful recanalization (modified Thrombolysis in Cerebral Infarction [mTICI] grade ≥2b) at the First Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University from January 2017 to September 2022 were retrospectively included. According to modified Rankin Scale score at 90 days after onset, they were categorized into effective recanalization group (0-3) and futile recanalization group (4-6). Univariate analysis and mutivariate logistic regression analysis were used to identify independent risk factors for futile recanalization. A nomogram prediction model was then developed based on the independent risk factors. The model’s discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility were evaluated using receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and clinical decision curves, respectively. Results:A total of 83 patients were included. Their age was 64.2±11.8 years, and 58 were male (69.9%). The median baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score was 20 (interquartile range, 12-26). Forty patients (48.2%) experienced futile recanalization. The multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the Basilar Artery on Computed Tomography Angiography (BATMAN) score at admission, failure to achieve first-pass effect during EVT, NIHSS score at 24 h after EVT, and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) within 24 h after EVT were the independent risk factors for futile recanalization (all P<0.05). The area under the ROC curve for the nomogram model developed from these four risk factors was 0.898 (95% confidence interval 0.831-0.964), with a predictive sensitivity of 75.0% and specificity of 90.7%. The calibration curve of this model was close to the ideal curve. The decision curve analysis showed that the model also had significant clinical net benefits. Conclusions:The nomogram model developed from BATMAN score at admission, first-pass effect, NIHSS score at 24 h after EVT, and NLR within 24 h after EVT has good predictive ability and clinical practicality, and can early predict futile recanalization in patients with ABAO at 1 day after EVT.

Development and validation of a predictive model for acute kidney injury in young, middle-aged and elderly patients with acute ischemic stroke / 国际脑血管病杂志

Objective:To develop a risk prediction model for acute kidney injury (AKI) in young, middle-aged and elderly patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS), and verify the predictive ability of the model.Methods:Patients admitted to the Department of Neurology, Lianyungang Hospital Affiliated to Xuzhou Medical University from January 2018 to August 2022 were retrospectively included as a modeling cohort, and patients with AIS from September 2022 to September 2023 were prospectively included as a validation cohort. Independent risk factors for AKI were determined by multivariate logistic regression analysis, and risk prediction models for AKI in young AIS patients group and middle-aged and elderly AIS patients group were developed. The predictive power of the model was tested using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results:The young group included 760 patients with AIS, of which 584 (76.84%) were in the modeling cohort, and 146 (25.00%) had AKI. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that anemia, systolic blood pressure, homocysteine, alcohol consumption, blood urea nitrogen, and National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score were independent risk factors for AKI (all P<0.05). ROC analysis showed that the area under the curve of the predictive model was 0.938 (95% confidence interval 0.912-0.963), the Youden index was 0.747, and the optimal cut-off value was 0.249. The sensitivity and specificity of predicting AKI were 84.8% and 89.9%, respectively. A total of 1 417 patients with AIS were included in the middle-aged and elderly group, of which 833 patients (58.79%) were in the modeling cohort and 230 (27.61%) had AKI. Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that hypertension, atrial fibrillation, previous stroke history, smoking, infection, triglycerides, NIHSS score, use of antihypertensive drugs, use of loop diuretics, serum creatinine, and blood urea nitrogen were the independent risk factors for AKI ( P<0.05). ROC analysis showed that the area under the curve of the predictive model was 0.838 (95% confidence interval 0.808-0.868), the Youden index was 0.539, the optimal cut-off value was 0.242, and the predictive sensitivity and specificity were 78.3% and 75.6%, respectively. The Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit test showed the predictive accuracy of the model was in good agreement with the actual occurrence of risk (the young group: χ2=8.968, P=0.345; the middle-aged and elderly group: χ2=11.250, P=0.188). The validation cohort analysis shows that the model had high prediction accuracy and credibility in two groups. Conclusion:The model can specifically predict the risk of AKI in young, middle-aged and elderly patients with AIS, with high sensitivity and specificity.