Nomgram model for individual prediction of coronary heart disease with pulmonary hypertension / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To establish an individual Nomgram model for predicting the risk of coronary heart disease complicated with pulmonary hypertension. Methods From January 2017 to December 2021 , 352 patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) complicated with pulmonary hypertension in our hospital were selected, and 352 patients with coronary heart disease but without pulmonary hypertension were selected as the control group. The clinical baseline data of the two groups were analyzed first, and then logistics multivariate analysis was performed. To explore the risk factors of coronary heart disease complicated with pulmonary hypertension, the Nomgram model was established to predict the risk, and the predictive value of the model was tested by receiver characteristic curve (ROC). Results Logistics multivariate analysis showed that alcoholism, smoking, stroke history, hypertension course, CHD course, PASP, HCT, PaCO2, D-dimer, NIHSS score and low PaO2 were all independent risk factors for CHD complicated with pulmonary hypertension. Nomgram model prediction results for patients with coronary heart disease showed that Alcohol abuse, smoking, stroke history, duration of hypertension (5.66 years), duration of coronary heart disease (2.12 years), NIHSS (12.33 points), PASP (75.22mmHg), HCT (33.22%), PaCO2 (56.11mmHg), D-dimer (255.12μg/L), PaO2 (56.22mmHg) is a risk factor for coronary heart disease complicated with pulmonary hypertension. ROC curve showed that the area under the prediction curve of Nomgram model for coronary heart disease complicated with pulmonary hypertension was 0.675. Conclusion Nomgram model can predict pulmonary hypertension in patients with coronary heart disease to a certain extent.

Are we ready to stratify BI-RADS 4 lesions observed on magnetic resonance imaging? A real-world noninferiority/equivalence analysis / Estamos prontos para estratificar lesões BI-RADS 4 na ressonância magnética? Uma análise de não inferioridade/equivalência do mundo real

Abstract Objective: To demonstrate that positive predictive values (PPVs) for suspicious (category 4) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) findings that have been stratified are equivalent to those stipulated in the American College of Radiology Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) for mammography and ultrasound. Materials and Methods: This retrospective analysis of electronic medical records generated between January 4, 2016 and December 29, 2021 provided 365 patients in which 419 suspicious (BI-RADS category 4) findings were subcategorized as BI-RADS 4A, 4B or 4C. Malignant and nonmalignant outcomes were determined by pathologic analyses, follow-up, or both. For each subcategory, the level 2 PPV (PPV2) was calculated and tested for equivalence/noninferiority against the established benchmarks. Results: Of the 419 findings evaluated, 168 (40.1%) were categorized as malignant and 251 (59.9%) were categorized as nonmalignant. The PPV2 for subcategory 4A was 14.2% (95% CI: 9.3-20.4%), whereas it was 41.2% (95% CI: 32.8-49.9%) for subcategory 4B and 77.2% (95% CI: 68.4-84.5%) for subcategory 4C. Multivariate analysis showed a significantly different cancer yield for each subcategory (p < 0.001). Conclusion: We found that stratification of suspicious findings by MRI criteria is feasible, and malignancy probabilities for sub-categories 4B and 4C are equivalent to the values established for the other imaging methods in the BI-RADS. Nevertheless, low suspicion (4A) findings might show slightly higher malignancy rates.

Resumo Objetivo: Demonstrar que os valores preditivos positivos (VPPs) para lesões suspeitas (categoria 4) identificadas por ressonância magnética (RM) são equivalentes aos estipulados no ACR BI-RADS para mamografia e ultrassonografia. Materiais e Métodos: Análise retrospectiva de dados em prontuário eletrônico, entre 4 de janeiro de 2016 e 29 de dezembro de 2021, resultou em 365 pacientes elegíveis, com 419 lesões classificadas como BI-RADS 4A, 4B ou 4C. Desfechos malignos e não malignos foram determinados por estudo patológico e/ou acompanhamento. Realizamos o cálculo do VPP nível 2 (VPP2) para cada subcategoria e testamos para não inferioridade/equivalência em relação aos valores de referência. Resultados: Dos 419 achados, 168 (40,1%) foram malignos e 251 (59,9%), não malignos. O VPP2 para subcategoria 4A foi 14,2% (IC 95%: 9,3-20,4%), para 4B foi 41,2% (IC 95%:, 32,8-49,9%) e para 4C foi 77,2% (IC 95%: 68,4-84,5%). Análise multivariada demonstrou diferenças estatisticamente significantes entre as subcategorias (p < 0,001). Conclusão: A estratificação de achados suspeitos por RM é factível, sendo que a probabilidade de malignidade das subcategorias 4B e 4C é equivalente à estabelecida para outros métodos de imagem pelo BI-RADS. Contudo, lesões de baixa suspeição (4A) podem apresentar taxas mais altas de malignidade.

Alergia a la leche de vaca: ¿se pueden evitar las pruebas de provocación oral? Un análisis probabilístico basado en datos clínicos / Cow's milk allergy: Can oral food challenges be avoided? A probabilistic analysis based on clinical data

Introducción. La prueba de provocación oral (PPO) para el diagnóstico de alergia a las proteínas de la leche de la vaca (APLV) presenta riesgos y requiere de recursos. Nuestro objetivo fue evaluar condiciones y pruebas complementarias para identificar una alta probabilidad de APLV. Población y métodos. Análisis secundario sobre estudio de pacientes atendidos en una unidad de alergia entre 2015 y 2018. Se determinaron las probabilidades prepruebas asociadas a los síntomas y sus combinaciones, y las probabilidades pospruebas luego de realizadas pruebas cutáneas y determinación de inmunoglobulina E (IgE) sérica. Resultados. Se evaluó la información de 239 pacientes. Se observaron probabilidades mayores al 95 % en pacientes con angioedema y combinación de urticaria y vómitos. Usando puntos de corte propuestos por Calvani et al., la combinación de vómitos con rinitis, sin angioedema, también superó el 95 %. Conclusión. Se ofrece una metodología para identificar pacientes en los que puede diagnosticarse APLV sin realización de PPO.

Introduction. The oral food challenge (OFC) for the diagnosis of cow's milk protein allergy (CMPA) poses risks and requires resources. Our objective was to assess conditions and complementary tests used to identify a high probability of CMPA. Population and methods. Secondary analysis of a study of patients seen at a unit of allergy between 2015 and 2018. Pre-testing probabilities associated with symptoms and their combinations and post-testing probabilities after skin prick testing and serum immunoglobulin E (IgE) levels were determined. Results. The data from 239 patients were assessed. A probability greater than 95% was observed for angioedema and a combination of urticaria and vomiting. Based on the cut-off points proposed by Calvani et al., the combination of vomiting with rhinitis, without angioedema, also exceeded 95%. Conclusion. A methodology is provided to identify patients in whom CMPA may be diagnosed without an OFC.

Instrumentos para la evaluación del riesgo de lesiones por presión en adultos en estado crítico: scoping review / Risk assessment instruments for pressure ulcer in adults in critical situation: a scoping review / Instrumentos para a avaliação do risco de lesões por pressão para adultos em situação crítica: scoping review*

Objetivo: mapear los instrumentos para la evaluación del riesgo de lesiones por presión en adultos en situación crítica en una unidad de terapia intensiva; identificar los indicadores de desempeño de los instrumentos y la apreciación de los usuarios con respecto al uso/limitaciones de los instrumentos. Método: scoping review. Para redactar el estudio se utilizó la extensión Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews. La investigación se realizó mediante la herramienta de búsqueda EBSCOhost en 8 bases de datos, resultando 1846 estudios, de los cuales 22 conforman la muestra. Resultados: se identificaron dos grandes grupos de instrumentos: los generalistas [Braden, Braden (ALB), Emina, Norton-MI, RAPS y Waterlow]; y los específicos (CALCULATE, Cubbin & Jackson, EVARUCI, RAPS-ICU, Song & Choi, Suriaidi y Sanada y el índice COMHON). En cuanto al valor predictivo, EVARUCI y CALCULATE mostraron los mejores resultados de indicadores de desempeño. En cuanto a las apreciaciones/limitaciones señaladas por los usuarios, destaca la escala CALCULATE, seguida de la EVARUCI y la RAPS-ICU, aunque aún necesitan ajustes futuros. Conclusión: el mapeo mostró que las evidencias son suficientes para indicar uno o más instrumentos para la evaluación del riesgo de lesiones por presión en adultos críticos en una unidad de cuidados intensivos.

Objective: to map the instruments for risk assessment of pressure ulcers in adults in critical situation in intensive care units; identify performance indicators of the instrument, and the appreciation of users regarding the instruments' use/limitations. Method: a scoping review. We used the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews in the writing of the study. We carried out the searches in the EBSCOhost search tool for 8 databases, resulting in 1846 studies, of which 22 studies compose the sample. Results: we identified two big instrument groups: generalist [Braden, Braden (ALB), Emina, Norton-MI, RAPS, and Waterlow]; and specific (CALCULATE, Cubbin & Jackson, EVARUCI, RAPS-ICU, Song & Choi, Suriaidi and Sanada, and COMHON index). Regarding the predictive value, EVARUCI and CALCULATE presented better results for performance indicators. Concerning appreciation/limitations indicated by users, we highlight the CALCULATE scale, followed by EVARUCI and RAPS-ICU, although they still need future adjustments. Conclusion: the mapping of the literature showed that the evidence is sufficient to indicate one or more instruments for the risk assessment of pressure ulcers for adults in critical situation in intensive care units.

Objetivo: mapear os instrumentos para avaliação do risco de lesões por pressão nos adultos em situação crítica em unidade de cuidados intensivos; identificar os indicadores de desempenho dos instrumentos e a apreciação dos utilizadores quanto ao uso/às limitações dos instrumentos. Método: scoping review. O Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews foi utilizado para a redação do estudo. A pesquisa foi realizada na ferramenta de busca EBSCOhost em oito bases de dados, resultando em 1846 estudos, dos quais 22 compõem a amostra. Resultados: identificaram-se dois grandes grupos de instrumentos: os genéricos [Braden, Braden (ALB), Emina, Norton-MI, RAPS e Waterlow]; e os específicos (CALCULATE, Cubbin & Jackson, EVARUCI, RAPS-ICU, Song & Choi, Suriaidi e Sanada e o índice de COMHON). Quanto ao valor preditivo, a EVARUCI e a CALCULATE apresentaram os melhores resultados de indicadores de desempenho. Em relação à apreciação/às limitações apontadas pelos utilizadores, destacam-se a escala CALCULATE, seguindo-se da EVARUCI e da RAPS-ICU, embora ainda necessitem de ajustes futuros. Conclusão: o mapeamento mostrou que as evidências são suficientes para indicar um ou mais instrumentos para avaliação do risco de lesões por pressão nos adultos em situação crítica em unidade de cuidados intensivos.

Generación de un test predictivo para el diagnóstico de laetiología de la hemorragia digestiva alta variceal

Nuestro objetivo fue desarrollar un test diagnóstico para predecir la etiología de la Hemorragia Digestiva Alta Variceal (HDAV). Realizamos un estudio de cohorte retrospectivo. Se revisaron historias clínicas de pacientes mayores de 18 años con Hemorragia Digestiva Alta (HDA) que acudieron al servicio de emergencia del Hospital Cayetano Heredia (HCH) de Lima-Perú entre el 2019 a 2022, se recolectaron datos demográficos, de laboratorio y clínicos; posteriormente, se identificaron variables predictivas de HDAV mediante una regresión logística múltiple. A cada variable con capacidad predictiva se les asignó un puntaje con un punto de corte y sirvió para construir una escala predictiva de HDAV. Se incluyeron 197 historias clínicas de pacientes con HDA, de los cuales 127 (64%) tuvieron sangrado de causa no variceal, y, 70 (36%), variceal. Se identificaron 4 factores predictivos independientes: hematemesis (vómito rojo) (OR: 4,192, IC 95%: 1,586-11,082), recuento de plaquetas (OR: 3,786, IC 95%: 1,324-10,826), antecedente de HDA (OR: 2,634, IC 95%: 1,017-6,820), signos de enfermedad hepática crónica (OR: 11,244, IC 95%: 3,067-35,047), con los que se construyó una escala predictiva, con un punto de corte >7 y ≤7; que mostró una sensibilidad, especificidad, valor predictivo positivo, valor predictivo negativo, cociente de probabilidad positivo, y, negativo de 58,6%, 90,6%, 77,4%, 79,9%, 6,20, y 0,46 respectivamente. En conclusión, la escala predictiva con un punto de corte >7 es útil para predecir la presencia de la HDAV en pacientes que acuden a la emergencia por HDA.

Our objective was to develop a diagnostic test to predict the etiology of Variceal Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding (VUGIB). We conducted a retrospective cohort study. Medical records of patients over 18 years of age with Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding (UGIB) who attended the emergency service of Hospital Cayetano Heredia (HCH) in Lima-Peru between 2019 and 2022 were reviewed; demographic, laboratory and clinical data were collected. Subsequently, predictive variables of variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding (VUGIB) were identified using multiple logistic regression. Each variable with predictive capacity was assigned a score with a cut-off point and served to build a predictive scale for VUGIB. 197 medical records of patients with UGIB were included, of which 127 (64%) had non-variceal bleeding, and 70 (36%), variceal. Four independent predictors were identified: hematemesis (red vomit) (OR: 4,192, 95% CI: 1.586-11.082), platelet count (OR: 3.786, 95% CI: 1.324-10.826), history of UGIB (OR: 2.634, 95% CI: 1.017-6.820), signs of chronic liver disease (OR: 11.244, 95% CI: 3.067-35.047), with which a predictive scale was constructed, with a cut-off point >7 and ≤7; which showed a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, positive likelihood ratio, and negative of 58.6%, 90.6%, 77.4%, 79.9%, 6.20, and 0.46 respectively. In conclusion, the predictive scale with a cut-off point >7 is useful for predicting the presence of VUGIB in patients who attend the emergency room for UGIB.

A prospective validation and comparison of three multivariate models for prediction of difficult intubation in adult patients

Abstract Purpose Several bedside clinical tests have been proposed to predict difficult tracheal intubation. Unfortunately, when used alone, these tests show less than ideal prediction performance. Some multivariate tests have been proposed considering that the combination of some criteria could lead to better prediction performance. The goal of our research was to compare three previously described multivariate models in a group of adult patients undergoing general anesthesia. Methods This study included 220 patients scheduled for elective surgery under general anesthesia. A standardized airway evaluation which included modified Mallampati class (MM), thyromental distance (TMD), mouth opening distance (MOD), head and neck movement (HNM), and jaw protrusion capacity was performed before anesthesia. Multivariate models described by El-Ganzouri et al., Naguib et al., and Langeron et al. were calculated using the airway data. After anesthesia induction, an anesthesiologist performed the laryngoscopic classification and tracheal intubation. The sensitivity, specificity, and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves of the models were calculated. Results The overall incidence of difficult laryngoscopic view (DLV) was 12.7%. The area under curve (AUC) for the Langeron, Naguib, and El-Ganzouri models were 0.834, 0.805, and 0.752, respectively, (Langeron > El-Ganzouri, p= 0.004; Langeron = Naguib, p= 0.278; Naguib = El-Ganzouri, p= 0.101). The sensitivities were 85.7%, 67.9%, and 35.7% for the Langeron, Naguib, and El-Ganzouri models, respectively. Conclusion The Langeron model had higher overall prediction performance than that of the El-Ganzouri model. Additionally, the Langeron score had higher sensitivity than the Naguib and El-Ganzouri scores, and therefore yielded a lower incidence of false negatives.

Estimación del riesgo cardiovascular global en hipertensos de la Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Cienfuegos

Fundamento: a pesar de la importancia del cálculo del riesgo cardiovascular global en hipertensos y los beneficios de su implementación en la Atención Primaria de Salud, en la Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Cienfuegos son insuficientes los estudios sobre su estimación. Objetivo: determinar el riesgo cardiovascular global en hipertensos de la Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Cienfuegos en el año 2021. Métodos: se realizó un estudio descriptivo, transversal y correlacional. La muestra estuvo conformada por 105 hipertensos entre 40-80 años de la Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Cienfuegos en el 2021. Las variables estudiadas fueron: edad, género, colesterol total, tabaquismo, presión arterial sistólica, diabetes mellitus diagnosticada y el riesgo cardiovascular global. Se calcularon la frecuencia absoluta y relativa de las variables y se aplicó la Chi cuadrado de Pearson en la asociación de las variables y el riesgo cardiovascular bajo con un nivel de significación p=0,05. Los resultados se presentaron en tablas. Resultados: predominó el género femenino, el grupo etáreo de 50-69 años, los no diabéticos y los no fumadores, con colesterol normal y prehipertensos. El 93,3 % presentó riesgo cardiovascular global bajo y el 6,7 % de moderado a crítico. Los pacientes no diabéticos y con presión arterial sistólica normal presentaron asociación significativa con el riesgo cardiovascular bajo. Conclusiones: los hipertensos de la Universidad de Ciencias Médicas de Cienfuegos presentan un riesgo cardiovascular global bajo, se mostró una correlación entre el riesgo cardiovascular bajo y la presión arterial sistólica normal y los antecedentes de no diabetes, lo que condicionaría protección a eventos cardiovasculares y cerebrovasculares en el futuro.

Background: despite the importance of calculating global cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients and the benefits of its implementation in Primary Health Care, studies on its estimation are insufficient at the University of Medical Sciences of Cienfuegos. Objective: to determine the global cardiovascular risk in hypertensive patients at the University of Medical Sciences of Cienfuegos in the year 2021. Methods: a descriptive, cross-sectional and correlational study was carried out. The sample consisted of 105 hypertensive patients between 40-80 years of age from the University of Medical Sciences of Cienfuegos in 2021. The variables studied were: age, gender, total cholesterol, smoking, systolic blood pressure, diagnosed diabetes mellitus, and global cardiovascular risk. The absolute and relative frequency of the variables were calculated and Pearson's Chi square was applied in the association of the variables and low cardiovascular risk with a significance level of p=0.05. The results were presented in tables. Results: the female gender, the age group of 50-69 years, non-diabetics and non-smokers, with normal cholesterol and prehypertensive predominated. 93.3 % presented low overall cardiovascular risk and 6.7 % moderate to critical. Non-diabetic patients with normal systolic blood pressure presented a significant association with low cardiovascular risk. Conclusions: hypertensive patients at the University of Medical Sciences of Cienfuegos have a low overall cardiovascular risk, a correlation was shown between low cardiovascular risk and normal systolic blood pressure and a history of non-diabetes, which would determine protection against cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events in the future

Proteína C-reativa como preditor para complicações pós-operatórias em cirurgias colorretais / C-reactive protein as postoperative complications predictor of colorectal surgeries

ABSTRACT Background: The use of inflammatory markers in order to accurate the diagnosis, decrease the reoperation rate and enable earlier interventions during the postoperative period of a colorectal surgery is increasingly necessary, with the purpose of reducing morbimortality, nosocomial infections, costs and time of a readmission. Objective: To analyze C-reactive protein level on the third postoperative day of an elective colorectal surgery and compare the marks between reoperated and non-reoperated patients and to establish a cutoff value to predict or avoid surgical reoperations. Methods: Retrospective study based on the analysis of electronic charts of over 18-year-old patients who underwent an elective colorectal surgery with primary anastomoses during the period from January 2019 to May 2021 by the proctology team of Santa Marcelina Hospital Department of General Surgery with C-reactive protein (CRP) dosage taken on the third postoperative day. Results: We assessed 128 patients with a mean age of 59.22 years old and need of reoperation of 20.3% of patients, half of these due to dehiscence of colorectal anastomosis. Comparing CRP rates on the third postoperative day between non-reoperated and reoperated patients, it was noted that in the former group the average was of 153.8±76.2 mg/dL, whereas in reoperated patients it was 198.7±77.4 mg/dL (P<0.0001) and the best CRP cutoff value to predict or investigate reoperation risk was 184.8 mg/L with an accuracy of 68% and negative predictive value of 87.6%. Conclusion: CRP levels assessed on the third postoperative day of elective colorectal surgery were higher in patients who were reoperated and the cutoff value for intra-abdominal complication of 184.8mg/L presented a high negative predictive value.

RESUMO Contexto: O uso de marcadores sanguíneos para tentar acurar o diagnóstico, reduzir a taxa de readmissão e possibilitar intervenções mais precoces no pós operatório de cirurgia colorretal é cada vez mais necessário, a fim de almejar reduzir a morbimortalidade, infecções nosocomiais, custos e tempo de uma reinternação. Objetivo: Analisar o nível da proteíne C reativa (PCR) no terceiro dia de pós-operatório de cirurgia colorretal eletiva e comparar os valores entre pacientes reoperados e não reoperados e estabelecer um valor de corte para prever ou afastar re-intervenção cirúrgica. Metodos: Estudo retrospectivo através da análise de prontuários eletrônicos de pacientes maiores que 18 anos submetidos a cirurgia colorretal de forma eletiva com anastomoses primárias no período de janeiro de 2019 a maio de 2021 pelo serviço de Coloproctologia do Departamento de Cirurgia Geral do Hospital Santa Marcelina com dosagem da PCR no 3º pós-operatório. Resultados: Foram avaliados 128 pacientes com média de idade de 59,22 anos e necessidade de reoperação em 20,3% dos pacientes, sendo metade desses por deiscência de anastomose colorretal. Ao se comparar os valores de PCR no 3º pós operatório entre os pacientes não reoperados e os reoperados, observou-se que nos primeiros a média foi de 153,8±76,2 mg/dL, enquanto nos pacientes reoperados foi de 198,7±77,4 mg/dL (P<0,0001) e, o melhor valor de corte de PCR para predizer ou investigar o risco de reoperação, foi 184,8 mg/dL com uma acurácia de 68% e valor preditivo negativo de 87,6%. Conclusão: Os níveis de PCR avaliados no 3º pós-operatório de cirurgia colorretal eletiva foram maiores em pacientes reoperados e o valor de corte para complicações intra-abdominal de 184,8 mg/L apresentou elevado valor preditivo negativo.

Homocysteine and serum uric acid levels in type 2 diabetic retinopathy and their predictive value for disease / 中华眼底病杂志

Objective:To observe the correlation between homocysteine (Hcy) and serum uric acid (SUA) and retinopathy in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), preliminary study on its predictive value.Methods:A retrospective study. From January 2020 to March 2021, a total of 324 T2DM patients hospitalized in Department of Endocrinology, Cangzhou Central Hospital of Hebei Province were included. Fasting blood glucose (FBG), glycated hemoglobin (HbA1C), triglycerides (TG), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), serum creatinine (Scr), blood urea nitrogen (BUN), Hcy, SUA, peripheral blood endothelial progenitor cells (EPC), circulating endothelial cells (CEC) were counted and homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) was calculated. According to the absence or presence of diabetic retinopathy (DR), the patients were divided into non DR (NDR) group and DR group with 100 and 214 cases, respectively. Clinical data and laboratory biochemical indexes of the two groups were compared and observed. The logistic regression was used to analyze the independent risk factors for DR in T2DM patients. Smooth curve fitting was used to analyze the curve relationship between Hcy, SUA and DR, and ROC area (AUC) of Hcy, SUA; their combined prediction of DR in T2DM patients was calculated by receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve), and the predictive value of Hcy and SUA for DR in T2DM patients was evaluated.Results:Diabetic course ( t=5.380), systolic blood pressure ( t=2.935), hypertension ( χ2=10.248), diabetic nephropathy ( χ2=9.515), diabetic peripheral neuropathy ( χ2=24.501), FBG ( t=3.945), HbA1C ( t=3.336) and TG in DR Group ( t=2.898), LDL-C ( t=3.986), Scr ( t=2.139), SUA ( t=7.138), HOMA-IR ( t=3.237), BUN ( t=3.609), Hcy ( t=2.363) and CEC ( t=19.396) were significantly higher than those in NDR group. The difference was statistically significant ( P<0.05). EPC ( t=9.563) and CPC ( t=7.684) levels were significantly lower than those of NDR group, and the difference was statistically significant ( P<0.05). Logistic regression analysis showed that diabetes course, SBP, hypertension, FBG, HbA1C, LDL-C, SUA, Hcy, EPC, CPC and CEC were all independent risk factors for developing DR in T2DM patients ( P<0.05). The smooth curve fitting analysis showed that Hcy and SUA were positively correlated with the occurrence of DR. After adjusting for confounding factors, when Hcy≥15 μmol/L, the risk of DR Increased by 14% for every 1 μmol/L increase in Hcy [odds ratio ( OR)=0.92, 95% confidence interval ( CI) 0.88-0.98, P<0.05]. When Hcy <15 μmol/L, there was no significant difference ( OR=0.96, 95% CI 0.92-1.08, P>0.05). When SUA≥304 μmol/L, the risk of DR increased by 17%, every 20 μmol/L SUA increased ( OR=0.80, 95% CI 0.68-0.94, P<0.05). When SUA <304 μmol/L, the difference was not statistically significant ( OR=0.83, 95% CI 0.72-0.95, P>0.05). ROC curve analysis results showed that the AUC values of Hcy, SUA and Hcy combined with SUA in predicting the occurrence of DR in T2DM patients were 0.775 (95% CI 0.713-0.837, P<0.001), 0.757 (95% CI 0.680-0.834, P<0.001) and 0.827 (95% CI 0.786-0.868, P<0.001). Hcy combined with SUA showed better predictive efficiency. Conclusions:The abnormal increase of Hcy and SUA levels in T2DM patients are closely related to the occurrence of DR, they are independent risk factors for the occurrence of DR. Hcy combined with SUA has high predictive value for the occurrence of DR.

Dynamic changes and predictive values of routine laboratory parameters in patients with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome / 中华传染病杂志

Objective:To investigate the dynamic changes of routine laboratory parameters during the course of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) and estimate the predictive value for the severity of the disease.Methods:A retrospective cohort study was conducted, which enrolled 394 HFRS patients admitted to the Second Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Medical University (374 cases) and the Second Affiliated Hospital of Xi′an Jiaotong University (20 cases) from January 2019 to January 2022. The patients were divided into mild (mild and moderate) and severe (severe and critical) groups.The basic information, personal history, past history, treatment, complications and other clinical data of patients were collected and the results of the laboratory examinations in the morning at day 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20 and 25 of hospitalization and before discharge were recorded. The dynamic changes of the patients′ routine laboratory indicators and the dynamic predictive values of each indicator for severe condition were analyzed. Mann-Whitney U test and chi-square test were used for comparison, and receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve was used for predictive value evaluation. Results:The age of 212 patients in the mild group was 38(27, 61) years, and that of 182 patients in the severe group was 49(32, 64) years, the difference was statistically significant ( Z=-2.24, P=0.025). The incidences of acute pancreatitis, acute respiratory distress syndrome, multiple organ dysfunction syndrome, the utilization rates of blood purification and mechanical ventilation in the severe group were 6.0%(11/182), 12.6%(23/182), 19.8%(36/182), 89.6%(163/182) and 22.5%(41/182), respectively, and those in the mild group were 0(0/212), 0(0/212), 0(0/212), 15.6%(33/212) and 0.5%(1/212) respectively, and the differences were all statistically significant ( χ2=13.18, 28.45, 46.15, 214.48 and 50.02, respectively, all P<0.05). The levels of white blood cell count, lymphocyte count, monocyte count and neutrophil count were all increased rapidly after onset and peaked at days 4 to 6 of illness, with the counts of 14.2(9.7, 20.7)×10 9/L, 4.2(2.3, 6.2)×10 9/L, 1.5 (0.8, 3.3)×10 9/L and 8.3(4.3, 11.4)×10 9/L, respectively. Aspartate aminotransferase peaked (102(66, 178) U/L) within three days after onset and then decreased rapidly, returned to normal level by day 12. Blood urea nitrogen and creatinine both increased steadily after onset, peaked at day 9 to 10, with the levels of 13.2(7.7, 19.1) mmol/L and 255.4(122.9, 400.9) μmol/L, respectively. Prothrombin time, activated partial thromboplastin time, fibrinogen degradation products and D-dimer levels at day 3 after onset were 12.7(12.0, 13.2) s, 38.7(33.5, 51.9) s, 12.6(6.9, 32.0) mg/L and 4.9(2.2, 13.7) mg/L, respectively.Platelet count at day 4, neutrophil count at day 5, creatinine at day 11 and blood urea nitrogen at day 14 after onset had decent predictive values for estimating severity, of which the area under curve (AUC) values were 0.801(95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.727 to 0.875), 0.824(95% CI 0.770 to 0.878), 0.862(95% CI 0.805 to 0.919) and 0.810(95% CI 0.722 to 0.897), respectively. Conclusions:Routine blood count, liver function and coagulation are important reference indicators for early warning of severe disease of HFRS, while with the progress of the disease, renal function indicators are effective in differentiating the severity of the disease. The platelet count at day 4, neutrophil count at day 5, creatinine at day 11 and blood urea nitrogen at day 14 after onset have predictive values for severe HFRS.

Value of unenhanced CT-based 5-point predictive score combined with blood glucose detection for predicting short-term prognosis in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage / 中国基层医药

Objective:To investigate the value of a 5-point predictive score based on unenhanced CT combined with blood glucose detection for predicting short-term prognosis in patients with spontaneous cerebral hemorrhage.Methods:A total of 102 patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage who received treatment in Zhejiang Provincial People's Hospital from March 2020 to March 2022 were included in this study and analyzed retrospectively. Blood glucose level was measured and BAT score was used to evaluate hematoma enlargement. After 30 days, Glasgow Outcome Scale was used to evaluate the prognosis of patients. The relationships between blood glucose and BAT score, and between blood glucose and BAT score and prognosis were analyzed. The value of blood glucose and BAT score for predicting short-term prognosis was analyzed.Results:The Glasgow Outcome Scale results showed that among the 102 patients, 24 patients (23.53%) had poor prognosis. The BAT score and blood glucose level in patients with poor prognosis were (3.13 ± 0.68) points and (11.58 ± 2.30) mmol/L, respectively, which were significantly higher than (2.40 ± 0.59) points and (8.88 ± 1.71) mmol/L in patients with good prognosis ( t = 5.10, 5.30, both P < 0.05). Pearson correlation analysis showed that in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage, blood glucose level was positively correlated with BAT score ( r = 0.43, P < 0.05). Spearman correlation analysis showed that in patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage, blood glucose level and BAT level were positively correlated with prognosis ( r = 0.42, 0.47, both P < 0.05). The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the area under the curve plotted for BAT score combined with blood glucose level for predicting short-term prognosis was 0.874, which was significantly greater than the area under the curve plotted for BAT score alone for predicting short-term prognosis ( Z = 2.54, P < 0.05). Conclusion:A large proportion of patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage have a poor prognosis. The patients with a poor prognosis have higher blood glucose levels and BAT scores than those with good prognosis. Blood glucose and BAT score have a high value for predicting the prognosis of patients with spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage.

Construction of risk factors for autologous arteriovenous fistula failure in 120 patients with chronic kidney disease stage 4 to 5 maintenance hemodialysis and prevention strategies / 中国医师进修杂志

Objective:To explore the risk factors and prevention strategies for autologous arteriovenous fistula failure in 120 maintenance hemodialysis (MHD) patients, and build a regression model.Methods:The clinical data of 120 patients received MHD treatment in Anji County People′s Hospital from January 2020 to February 2022 were retrospectively analyzed, and the selected patients were divided into the failure group (25 cases) and the patency group (95 cases) according to whether they had autologous arteriovenous fistula failure. The clinical data of the two groups were compared. Multivariate Logistic regression analysis method was used to analyze the risk factors of autologous arteriovenous fistula failure in MHD patients. And a Logistic regression model was established to analyze the predictive value.Results:The proportions of women, diabetes and temporary catheter dialysis patients in the failure group were higher than those in the patency group: 56.00% (14/25) vs. 33.68% (32/95), 44.00% (11/25) vs. 13.68% (13/95), 92.00% (23/25) vs. 65.26% (62/95); the time of catheterization, plasma parathyroid hormone, serum albumin (Alb), D-Dimer (D-D), fibrinogen (FIB) and phosphorus were higher than those in the patency group: (47.87 ± 18.43) d vs. (39.65 ± 16.58) d, (439.76 ± 23.45) ng/L vs. (354.54 ± 31.26) ng/L, (43.43 ± 2.54) g/L vs. (39.65 ± 2.31) g/L, (1.13 ± 0.32) mg/L vs. (0.23 ± 0.07) mg/L, (5.64 ± 2.14) g/L vs. (2.76 ± 0.76) g/L, (3.54 ± 1.02) mmol/L vs. (0.76 ± 0.05) mmol/L( P<0.05). The results of multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that female, concomitant diabetes, temporary catheter dialysis, and high level of serum phosphorus were independent risk factors for autologous arteriovenous fistula failure in MHD patients ( OR = 2.654, 3.077, 3.721, 2.646; P<0.05). Regression equation model was: logit( P) = -12.763 + sex × 0.976 + diabetes × 1.124 + temporary catheter dialysis × 1.314 + level of blood phosphorus × 0.973. When Logistic ( P) > 18.542, the area under the curve (AUC) value for autologous arteriovenous fistula failure prediction in this model was 0.882 (95% CI from 0.811 to 0.934), and with sensitivity of 80.00%, and specificity of 83.16%. Conclusions:Female gender, diabetes mellitus, temporary catheter dialysis, and high blood phosphorus level were independent risk factors for autologous arteriovenous fistula failure in patients with MHD. The model had a good predictive value for failure of autologous arteriovenous fistula in patients with MHD. Corresponding treatment and intervention measures could be used for patients with the above conditions in order to reduce the risk of autologous arteriovenous fistula failure and improve the treatment effect.

The application of antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody renal risk score in children with antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody-associated glomerulonephritis / 中华实用儿科临床杂志

Objective:To investigate the potential of the antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody (ANCA) renal risk score (ARRS) in predicting the prognosis of children with ANCA-associated glomerulonephritis (AAGN).Methods:Laboratory testing, renal pathology results, treatment and prognosis of 61 children with AAGN diagnosed by renal biopsy from June 2007 to May 2022 in General Hospital of Eastern Theater Command were retrospectively analyzed.The Kaplan-Meier method was used to evaluate the overall and renal survival of children with AAGN, and risk factors of progression to end stage renal disease (ESRD) were analyzed by Cox regression analysis. Results:Among the 61 children with AAGN, there were 14 males and 47 females with the age of (15.65±3.74) years.According to ARRS, AAGN children were assigned into low-risk group (27 cases), medium-risk group (21 cases) and high-risk group (13 cases). During a median follow-up duration of 46.36 (14.58, 95.62) months, the number of ESRD cases in the high-risk group (9 cases) was significantly higher than that of low-risk group (2 cases) and medium-risk group (3 cases) ( χ2=13.079, P<0.001). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed that AAGN children in the high-risk group had the worst renal prognosis ( χ2=5.796, P=0.016), while no significant difference was detected in the overall survival among the 3 groups ( χ2=2.883, P=0.237). Multivariate Cox regression showed that estimate glomerular filtration rate(eGFR)≤15 mL/(min·1.73 m 2) ( HR=9.574, 95% CI: 4.205-25.187, P=0.015) and ARRS ( HR=2.115, 95% CI: 1.206-4.174, P=0.012) were independent risk factors for children with AAGN progress to ESRD.Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis results showed that the area under the curve of ARRS for predicting the risk of progressing to ESRD in AAGN children was 0.880 (95% CI: 0.759-1.000), and the optimal cutoff value of ARRS was 5.50, with the sensitivity and specificity of 85.71% and 82.98%, respectively. Conclusions:ARRS was an independent risk factor for children with AAGN progress to ESRD, which had a predictive value for the progression of AAGN to ESRD.

Correlation between serum uric acid/albumin ratio and large atherosclerosis stroke, its severity and short-term outcome / 国际脑血管病杂志

Objective:To investigate the correlation between serum uric acid to albumin ratio (UAR) and large-artery atherosclerosis (LAA), its severity and short-term outcome.Methods:Patients with acute ischemic stroke admitted to the Department of Neurology, the Affiliated Hospital of Qingdao University from September 2017 to August 2022 were retrospectively enrolled. They were classified into LAA and non-LAA according to the TOAST etiological criteria. Patients with LAA were further divided into mild stroke group (≤8) and moderate to severe stroke group (>8) according to the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score at admission, and good outcome group (≤2) and poor outcome group (>2) according to the modified Rankin Scale score at discharge. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to determine the correlation between UAR and LAA, its severity and short-term outcome. The predictive value of UAR for poor outcomes in patients with LAA was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results:A total of 4 178 patients with acute ischemic stroke were enrolled, including 2 751 males (65.8%), aged 61.95±10.73 years. There were 2 000 (47.9%) patients with LAA, including 1 112 (55.6%) mild stroke and 888 (44.4%) moderate to severe stroke; 813 (40.65%) had good short-term outcomes and 1 187 (59.35%) had poor outcomes. UAR in the LAA group was significantly higher than that in the non-LAA group ( P<0.05). In patients with LAA, the UAR of the moderate to severe stroke group and the short-term poor outcome group were significantly higher than that of the mild stroke group and the short-term good outcome group, respectively (all P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the UAR was an independent risk factor for LAA (odds ratio [ OR] 1.043, 95% confidence interval [ CI] 1.016-1.071; P=0.002), its severity ( OR 2.000, 95% CI 1.860-2.151; P<0.001), and short-term poor outcomes ( OR 1.456, 95% CI 1.379-1.537; P<0.001). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of UAR for predicting short-term poor outcomes in patients with LAA was 0.727 (95% CI 0.704-0.750; P<0.001). The optimal cutoff value was 6.62, and the sensitivity and specificity were 86.6% and 56.7%, respectively. The area under the curve of UAR for predicting short-term poor outcomes in patients with LAA was greater than that predicted solely by uric acid and albumin. Conclusions:UAR is associated with LAA, its severity and poor prognosis, and has higher predictive value for poor outcomes in patients with LAA.

Eosinophil-to-neutrophil ratio predicts outcomes in patients with acute ischemic stroke receiving intravenous thrombolysis / 国际脑血管病杂志

Objective:To investigate the predicting value of eosinophil-to-neutrophil ratio (ENR) for outcomes at 3 months after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).Methods:Patients with AIS received intravenous thrombolysis in the Department of Neurology, Huai'an First People's Hospital from July 2019 to July 2022 were included retrospectively. Multivariate logistic regression model was used to determine the independent correlation between ENR and outcomes at 3 months after intravenous thrombolysis. The receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of ENR levels for poor outcomes at 3 months after intravenous thrombolysis. Results:A total of 352 patients with AIS receiving intravenous thrombolysis were enrolled, including 240 men (68.1%), age 66.46±12.00 years old. The median National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale score was 8 (interquartile range, 5-13). At 3 months after onset, 215 patients (61.0%) had good outcomes, 137 (38.9%) had poor outcomes. Univariate analysis showed that the median ENR×10 2 level of the poor outcome group was significantly lower than that of the good outcome group ( Z= –7.305, P<0.01). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that lower ENR×10 2 was an independent risk factor for poor outcomes at 3 months after intravenous thrombolysis (odds ratio 0.619, 95% confidence interval 0.514-0.745; P<0.01). ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve for ENR×10 2 predicting the poor outcomes after intravenous thrombolysis was 0.731 (95% confidence interval 0.678-0.784; P<0.01). The optimal cutoff value was 0.625 and the corresponding sensitivity and specificity were 94% and 40%, respectively. Conclusion:Lower ENR before intravenous thrombolysis in patients with AIS is independently associated with the poor outcomes at 3 months.

Predictive score of the outcomes after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke / 国际脑血管病杂志

Stroke has become the leading cause of disability and death in China. At present, intravenous thrombolysis is one of the most effective treatment for acute ischemic stroke, but not all patients can benefit from intravenous thrombolysis. In recent years, the exploration of predictive models for the outcomes after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke has attracted increasing attention. This article systematically reviews the scoring models for predicting the functional outcome, death and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke, with the aim of screening the scoring system suitable for clinical application and providing reference for the clinical diagnosis, evaluation and treatment of acute ischemic stroke.

Combined HAT score and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio predict symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke / 国际脑血管病杂志

Objective:To investigate the value of hemorrhage after thrombolytic (HAT) score and neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR) in combination predicting symptomatic intracerebral hemorrhage (sICH) after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS).Methods:Consective patients with AIS received intravenous thrombolysis with ateplase in Tianjin TEDA Hospital from January 2016 to December 2021 were retrospectively enrolled. sICH was defined as cerebral CT showing hemorrhage at any part of the brain after intravenous thrombolysis, and the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score was increased by≥4 compared with the baseline, or there was a manifestation indicating clinical aggravation. Univariate analysis was used to compare the baseline data of sICH group and non-sICH group. A binary multivariate logistic regression model was used to determine the independent influencing factors of sICH. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the value of HAT score and NLR in combination predicting sICH. Results:A total of 429 patients with AIS were enrolled. Univariate analysis showed that there were significant differences in atrial fibrillation, systolic blood pressure, NLR, HAT score and NIHSS score between the sICH group and the non-sICH group (all P<0.05). Multivariate analysis showed that NLR (odds ratio [ OR] 1.405, 95% confidence interval [ CI] 1.193-2.958), HAT score ( OR 1.512, 95% CI 1.207-3.169) and NIHSS score ( OR 1.221, 95% CI 1.082-2.634) had significant independent correlation with sICH after adjusting for atrial fibrillation and systolic blood pressure. The ROC curve showed that the areas under the curve of HAT score, NLR and their combination predicting sICH were 0.719 (95% CI 0.609-0.832), 0.723 (95% CI 0.618-0.835) and 0.854 (95% CI 0.765-0.931), respectively. The areas under the curve of the two methods in combination were significantly larger than those of the single method ( P=0.029 and 0.032, respectively), and their sensitivity and specificity were 74.1% and 83.5% respectively. Conclusion:Combined HAT score and NLR is of high value in predicting sICH after intravenous thrombolysis in patients with AIS, and has clinical application potential.

Risk factors of red blood cell infusion in very low/ultra-low birth weight neonates with respiratory distress syndrome / 中国输血杂志

【Objective】 To investigate the risk factors of red blood cell transfusion frequency (fRBCT) toward newborns with very/extremely low birth weight (V/ELBW) who experienced 57 days, >2.75 days and >23.75 days. 【Conclusion】 Increased fRBCT may complicate V/ELBW NRDS newborns who experienced <32 weeks of gestational age with NEC, hematosepsis, BPD and ROP. Duration of hospital stay, invasive ventilation and IVN are relatively effective predictive indicators for whether such cases have undergone ≥3 red blood cell transfusions throughout their hospitalization.

Comparison of the predictive value of anthropometric indicators for the risk of benign prostatic hyperplasia in southern China / 亚洲男科学杂志(英文版)

This study aimed to compare the predictive value of six selected anthropometric indicators for benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH). Males over 50 years of age who underwent health examinations at the Health Management Center of the Second Xiangya Hospital, Central South University (Changsha, China) from June to December 2020 were enrolled in this study. The characteristic data were collected, including basic anthropometric indices, lipid parameters, six anthropometric indicators, prostate-specific antigen, and total prostate volume. The odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) for all anthropometric parameters and BPH were calculated using binary logistic regression. To assess the diagnostic capability of each indicator for BPH and identify the appropriate cutoff values, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the related areas under the curves (AUCs) were utilized. All six indicators had diagnostic value for BPH (all P ≤ 0.001). The visceral adiposity index (VAI; AUC: 0.797, 95% CI: 0.759-0.834) had the highest AUC and therefore the highest diagnostic value. This was followed by the cardiometabolic index (CMI; AUC: 0.792, 95% CI: 0.753-0.831), lipid accumulation product (LAP; AUC: 0.766, 95% CI: 0.723-0.809), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR; AUC: 0.660, 95% CI: 0.609-0.712), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR; AUC: 0.639, 95% CI: 0.587-0.691), and body mass index (BMI; AUC: 0.592, 95% CI: 0.540-0.643). The sensitivity of CMI was the highest (92.1%), and WHtR had the highest specificity of 94.1%. CMI consistently showed the highest OR in the binary logistic regression analysis. BMI, WHtR, WHR, VAI, CMI, and LAP all influence the occurrence of BPH in middle-aged and older men (all P ≤ 0.001), and CMI is the best predictor of BPH.

Predictive Value of Complete Blood Count and Inflammation Marker on Risk of Recurrence in Children with Henoch-Schönlein Purpura / 中国实验血液学杂志

OBJECTIVE@#To investigate the predictive value of complete blood count (CBC) and inflammation marker on the recurrence risk in children with Henoch-Schönlein purpura (HSP).@*METHODS@#One hundred and thirty-three children with HSP admitted to Cangzhou Central Hospital from February 2017 to March 2019 were enrolled. The clinical data of the children were collected, at the time of admission CBC and C-reactive protein (CRP) were detected. After discharge, the children were followed up for 1 year, the clinical data of children with and without recurrence were compared, and multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors affecting HSP recurrence. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve should be drawn and the predictive value of CBC and CRP on HSP recurrence should be analyzed.@*RESULTS@#In the follow-up of 133 children, 8 cases were lost and 39 cases recurred, with a recurrence rate of 31.20% (39/125). The age, skin rash duration, proportion of renal damage at the initial onset, percentage of neutrophils, percentage of lymphocytes, platelet count (PLT), mean platelet volume (MPV) and neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet/lymphocyte ratio (PLR), MPV/PLT ratio (MPR), and CRP level of patients with recurrence were statistically different from those without recurrence (P <0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that long skin rash duration, renal damage at the initial onset, increased PLR, high PLT, increased MPV and elevated CRP level were independent risk factors for recurrence in children with HSP (P <0.05). The ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve (AUC) of the combination of the four blood and inflammation marker (PLT, MPV, PLR and CPR) in the early prediction of HSP recurrence was 0.898, which was higher than the initial renal damage (AUC=0.687) and persistent skin rash time (AUC=0.708), with a sensitivity of 84.62% and a specificity of 83.72%.@*CONCLUSION@#Observation of CBC and CPR can predict the risk of HSP recurrence early and guide early clinical intervention.