Determinants of to First Birth among women in Ethiopia using Cox Proportional Hazards Model

Backgroung: the age at first birth corresponds to the age of the mother giving birth to the first child. The delivery of the primary child is an important event that leaves a social mark on a woman's life. It is a woman's clear transition to parenthood with the roles and responsibilities involved. Premature birth can negatively affect women's socio-economic well-being in subsequent years. The study aims at accessing the determinants of age at first birth among Ethiopian women.Methods: the data for this study was extracted from the published reports of Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. The study used15, 683women aged 15-49 years from nine regions and two city administrations. Cox Proportional hazards model was used for identifying factors associated with age at first birth.Results: the median time of age at first birth for Ethiopian women was22 years with 95% CI; (21.82, 22.18).Cox Proportional Hazards Model shows that region, place of residence, education, wealth index, religion, work status, age at first marriage, age at first sex, and use of contraceptives have significant effects on the age at first birth at 5% level of significance. From region category, Amhararegion (p-value=0.398), BenishangulGumuz(p-value=0.112) Region, and Gambella region(p-value=0.062) were not significant at 5% level of significance.Conclusions: the age at first birth was positively correlated with the age at first sexual intercourse. A woman who has sexual intercourse much earlier gives birth earlier than a woman who is late for first intercourse.

Introdução: a idade do primeiro parto corresponde à idade da mãe que dá à luz ao primeiro filho. O parto do filho primário é um evento importante que deixa uma marca social na vida da mulher. É a transição clara de uma mulher para a paternidade com os papéis e responsabilidades envolvidos. O nascimento prematuro pode afetar negativamente o bem-estar socioeconômico das mulheres nos anos subsequentes. O estudo visa acessar os determinantes da idade ao primeiro parto entre as mulheres etíopes.Método: os dados para este estudo foram extraídos dos relatórios publicados do Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. O estudo utilizou15.683 mulheres de 15 a 49 anos de nove regiões e duas prefeituras. O modelo de riscos proporcionais de Cox foi utilizado para identificar os fatores associados à idade ao primeiro parto.Resultados: o tempo mediano de idade ao primeiro parto para mulheres etíopes foi de 22 anos com IC 95%; (21,82; 22,18).O Modelo de Riscos Proporcionais de Cox mostra que região, local de residência, educação, índice de riqueza, religião, situação profissional, idade do primeiro casamento, idade da primeira relação sexual e uso de anticoncepcionais têm efeitos significativos sobre a primeira idade nascimento ao nível de 5% de significância. Da categoria de região, Amhararegion (p-value=0,398), BenishangulGumuz (p-value=0,112) Region, e Gambella region (p-value=0,062) não foram significativos ao nível de significância de 5%.Conclusão: a idade do primeiro parto correlacionou-se positivamente com a idade da primeira relação sexual. Uma mulher que tem relações sexuais muito mais cedo, dá à luz mais cedo do que uma mulher que está atrasada para a primeira relação.

Survival of HIV/AIDS patients treated under ART follow-up at the University hospital, northwest Ethiopia

INTRODUCTION@#The survival of HIV/AIDS patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) is determined by a number of factors, including economic, demographic, behavioral, and institutional factors. Understanding the survival time and its trend is crucial to developing policies that will result in changes. The aim of this study was to compare the survival estimates of different subgroups and look into the predictors of HIV/AIDS patient survival.@*METHODS@#A retrospective cohort study of HIV/AIDS patients receiving ART at the University of Gondar teaching hospital was carried out. To compare the survival of various groups, a Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify factors influencing HIV/AIDS patient survival rates.@*RESULTS@#In the current study, 5.91% of the 354 HIV/AIDS patients under ART follow-up were uncensored or died. Age (HR = 1.051) and lack of formal education (HR = 5.032) were associated with lower survival rate, whereas family size of one to two (HR = 0.167), three to four (HR = 0.120), no alcoholic consumption (HR = 0.294), no smoking and chat use (HR = 0.101), baseline weight (HR = 0.920), current weight (HR = 0.928), baseline CD4 cell count (HR = 0.990), baseline hemoglobin (HR = 0.800), and no TB diseases were associated with longer survival rate.@*CONCLUSIONS@#Fewer deaths were reported in a study area due to high patient adherence, compared to previous similar studies. Age, educational status, family size, alcohol consumption, tobacco and chat usage, baseline and current weight, baseline CD4 cell count, baseline hemoglobin, and tuberculosis (TB) diseases were all significant predictors of survival of HIV/AIDS patients.

Level of education and mortality after radical prostatectomy / 亚洲男科学杂志(英文版)

Estimating the risk of competing mortality is of importance in men with early prostate cancer to choose the most appropriate way of management and to avoid over-or under-treatment. In this study, we investigated the impact of the level of education in this context. The study sample consisted of 2630 patients with complete data on level of education (college, university degree, master craftsmen, comparable profession, or others), histopathological tumor stage (organ confined or extracapsular), lymph node status (negative or positive), and prostatectomy specimen Gleason score (<7, 7, or 8-10) who underwent radical prostatectomy between 1992 and 2007. Overall, prostate cancer-specific, competing, and second cancer-related mortalities were study endpoints. Cox proportional hazard models for competing risks were used to study combined effects of the variables on these endpoints. A higher level of education was independently associated with decreased overall mortality after radical prostatectomy (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.75, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.62-0.91, P = 0.0037). The mortality difference was attributable to decreased second cancer mortality (HR: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.40-0.85, P = 0.0052) and noncancer mortality (HR: 0.73, 95% CI: 0.55-0.98, P = 0.0345) but not to differences in prostate cancer-specific mortality (HR: 1.16, 95% CI: 0.79-1.69, P = 0.4536 in the full model). In conclusion, the level of education might serve as an independent prognostic parameter supplementary to age, comorbidity, and smoking status to estimate the risk of competing mortality and to choose optimal treatment for men with early prostate cancer who are candidates for radical prostatectomy.

Factors Associated with the Timing of First Sexual Intercourse Among College Students in Busan, Korea / 대한남성과학회지

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to predict when college students in Korea have their first sexual intercourse and to explore the factors associated with the timing of first sexual intercourse. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Data are collected by using self-report survey toward total 797 of male and female college students who are currently attending the college in Busan, Korea. Students were divided by four groups according to their age of timing of first sexual intercourse, <16 years, between 16 to under 19, over 19 years and non-experienced. To examine the difference of four groups, Chi-square test and ANOVA (analysis of variance) were used. For estimation of the timing of first sexual intercourse we used Kaplan-Meier estimation and for differences of each group we used log-rank test. To identify the factors associated with the timing of first sexual intercourse we used Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: 41.4% of college students have experienced sexual intercourse. Of four groups the early sexual intercourse group (<16 years) had high rate of cigarette smoking, alcohol drinking, drug use, open sexual attitude, and a high number of sex partner. The factors associated with the timing of first sexual intercourse among college students was identified male, open parents attitude about sex, pornography experiences, cigarette smoking, alcohol drinking. CONCLUSIONS: This study predicts the timing of first sexual intercourse among college students in Korea. Early sexual debut is an important indicator for continued risk behavior regarding reproductive health.

Is depression a risk factor for mortality in chronic hemodialysis patients? / Depressão seria um fator de risco para mortalidade entre pacientes em hemodiálise crônica?

OBJECTIVE: The present study was conducted to assess the association between depressive symptomatology and mortality in chronic hemodialysis. METHOD: A cohort of 40 patients was followed for a median period of 10.5 months. The Beck Depression Inventory was used to classify patients as exposed to depression (Beck Depression Inventory score > 14) or not (Beck Depression Inventory < 14). Kaplan-Meier survival curves were used to compare the mortality rate between the two groups. The effects of potential confounding factors were adjusted using Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: After 24 months of follow-up, survival rates were 39 percent for exposed and 95 percent for non-exposed patients (p = 0.029). The Cox proportional hazards model showed results similar to those of the bivariate analysis, indicating that depressive symptomatology tended to be associated with mortality (HR = 6.5, 95 percentCI: 0.8-55.6; p = 0.085). Other study variables, including age, concurrent systemic diseases, and biochemical markers, were not significantly associated with mortality. Exposed patients remained on dialysis longer and received kidney transplants less frequently (9 percent vs. 50 percent for non-exposed patients). When kidney transplantation was included in the Cox regression model, the hazard ratio of mortality for exposed as compared to non-exposed patients lost statistical significance (HR = 4.5; 95 percentCI: 0.5-40.0; p = 0.17). CONCLUSIONS: Our study suggests that the presence of depressive symptoms may act as an independent risk factor for mortality in chronic hemodialysis patients. However, this finding needs further investigations.

OBJETIVO: Avaliar a associação entre depressão e óbito nos pacientes em hemodiálise crônica. MÉTODO: Uma coorte de 40 pacientes foi acompanhada por um período mediano de 10,5 meses. A escala Beck Depression Inventory foi utilizada para classificar os pacientes como expostos à depressão (Beck Depression Inventory score > 14) ou não expostos (Beck Depression Inventory < 14). Curvas de sobrevida, segundo o método de Kaplan-Meier, foram utilizadas para comparar a taxa de mortalidade entre os dois grupos. Os potenciais fatores de confusão foram ajustados por meio do modelo de riscos proporcionais de Cox. RESULTADOS: Após 24 meses de seguimento, as taxas de sobrevida foram 39 por cento para os pacientes expostos e 95 por cento para os não-expostos (p = 0.029). O modelo de riscos proporcionais de Cox mostrou resultados semelhantes aos obtidos na análise bivariada, indicando que a sintomatologia depressiva tende a estar associada com mortalidade (HR = 6,5; IC95 por cento: 0,8-55,6; p = 0,085). As outras variáveis estudadas, incluindo idade, doenças sistêmicas concomitantes e marcadores bioquímicos, não mostraram associações significativas com óbito. Pacientes expostos permaneceram mais tempo em hemodiálise e receberam menos transplante renal (9 por cento vs. 50 por cento para não-expostos). Quando o transplante renal foi incluído no modelo de riscos proporcionais de Cox, a razão de riscos de mortalidade para os pacientes expostos comparados com os não-expostos perdeu significância estatística (RR = 4,5; IC95 por cento: 0,5-40,0; p = 0,17). CONCLUSÕES: Nosso estudo sugere que a presença de sintomas depressivos pode ser um fator de risco independente para óbito de pacientes em hemodiálise crônica. No entanto, este achado necessita ser mais investigado.

Predetermining value analysis of the prehospital phase procedures in trauma victims survival / Análisis del valor predeterminante de los procedimientos de la fase prehospitalaria en la sobrevivencia de las víctimas de trauma / Análise do valor predeterminante dos procedimentos da fase pré-hospitalar na sobrevivência das vítimas de trauma

The aim of this study was to analyze the determining value of the procedures carried out during prehospital care in the survival time of traffic accident victims. Data of 175 victims with Revised Trauma Score £ 11, cared for and transported by advanced life support to tertiary referral hospitals, were submitted to Kaplan-Meier Survival Analysis and to Cox proportional hazards model. Four procedure groups associated with survival were identified: basic circulatory; advanced respiratory; volume replaced and medication. Until hospital discharge, the victims who underwent orotracheal intubation and chest compressions showed 3.6 and 6.4 times higher death hazards, respectively. The need for definitive airway and cardiopulmonary resuscitation in the prehospital phase was predetermining with higher death hazard. The less than 1000ml intravenous fluid replacement was the only predetermining factor with protective power against death hazard.

La propuesta de este estudio fue analizar el valor determinante de los procedimientos realizados durante la atención prehospitalaria en el tiempo de sobrevivencia de víctimas de accidentes de tránsito. Datos de 175 víctimas con Revised Trauma Score < 11, atendidas y transportadas por el soporte avanzado a la vida a hospitales terciarios, fueron sometidos al análisis de sobrevivencia de Kaplan Méier y al análisis de Riesgos Proporcionales de Cox. Se identificaron 4 grupos de procedimientos asociados a la sobrevivencia: circulatorios básicos; respiratorios avanzados; volumen repuesto y medicamentos. Hasta el alta hospitalaria, las víctimas sometidas a la intubación orotraqueal y compresiones toráxicas presentaron 3,6 y 6,4 veces mayor riesgo de muerte, respectivamente. La necesidad de mantener la vía aérea definitiva permeable y hacer reanimación cardiorrespiratoria en la fase prehospitalaria fue predeterminante de un mayor riesgo de muerte. La reposición de volumen inferior a 1000ml fue el único factor predeterminante con fuerza protectora para el riesgo de muerte.

A proposta deste estudo foi analisar o valor predeterminante dos procedimentos realizados, durante o atendimento pré-hospitalar no tempo de sobrevivência de vítimas de acidentes de trânsito. Dados de 175 vítimas com Revised Trauma Score < 11, atendidas e transportadas pelo suporte avançado à vida a hospitais terciários, foram submetidas à Análise de Sobrevivência de Kaplan Méier e à Análise de Riscos Proporcionais de Cox. Identificou-se 4 grupos de procedimentos associados à sobrevivência: circulatórios básicos; respiratórios avançados; volume reposto e medicamentos. Até a alta hospitalar, as vítimas, submetidas à entubação orotraqueal e compressões torácicas, apresentaram 3,6 e 6,4 vezes maior risco para o óbito, respectivamente. A necessidade de realização de via aérea definitiva e de reanimação cardiorrespiratória na fase pré-hospitalar foi predeterminante de maior risco para o óbito. A reposição de volume inferior a 1000ml foi o único fator predeterminante com força protetora para o risco de óbito.

Predeterminantes de sobrevivência em vítimas de acidentes de trânsito submetidas a atendimento pré-hospitalar de suporte avançado à vida / Survival determinant factors in motor vehicle crash victims submitted to prehospital advanced life support

O Atendimento Pré-hospitalar (APH) é um importante recurso no atendimento à vítimas de trauma. No entanto, há muitas dificuldades para demonstrar o efeito benéfico das intervenções do APH na sobrevivência das vítimas, sobretudo as de suporte avançado à vida (SAV). A proposta deste estudo é caracterizar as vítimas de acidentes trânsito, com Revised Trauma Score (RTS) <11, atendidas pelo SAV municipal e encaminhadas a hospitais terciários em São Paulo, além de identificar as variáveis da fase pré-hospitalar associadas à sobrevivência e avaliar o valor predeterminante dessas variáveis sobre o resultado obtido pelas vítimas. As variáveis avaliadas foram: sexo, idade, mecanismos do acidente, procedimentos de suporte básico e SAV realizados, repercussão fisiológica do trauma na cena do acidente, (considerando o RTS , seus parâmetros e flutuações), o tempo consumido no APH, gravidade do trauma segundo o Injury Severity Score (ISS),a Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) e número de lesões para cada segmento corporal. Os resultados obtidos por 175 vítimas entre 12 e 65 anos, foram submetidos a "Análise de Sobrevivência de Kaplan Meier" e ao "Modelo de Riscos Proporcionais de Cox". A variável dependente foi o tempo de sobrevivência após o acidente, considerando os intervalos até 6h,12h, 24h, 48h, até 7 dias e até o término da internação. Os homens (86,9%) e a faixa etária de 20 a 29 anos (36,0%) foram as mais frequentes. Os atropelamentos (45,1%) e o envolvimento de motocicletas e seus ocupantes (30,9%) foram os destaques dentre os mecanismos de trauma. A média do RTS na cena e do ISS, foram respectivamente 8,8 e 19,4.Os segmentos corpóreos mais atingidos foram: cabeça (58,8%), membros inferiores (45,1%) e superfície externa (40%). A média de tempo consumido na fase de APH foi 41min (tempo de cena 20,2min). Ocorreram 36% de óbitos, (metade em até 6 horas). A análise estatística revelou ) 24 fatores associados à sobrevivência, dentre eles, os procedimentos respiratórios avançados e os circulatórios básicos, as variáveis relativas ao RTS e a gravidade (ISS, MAIS e o número de lesões). No modelo final de Cox, ter sido submetido a procedimentos respiratórios avançados, compressões torácicas, apresentar lesão abdominal e ISS>25, foi associado a maior risco para o óbito até 48h após o trauma. Até 7 dias, a compressão torácica não se manteve no modelo final e a PAS de zero a 75mmHg apresentou associação com a morte após o acidente. Até a alta hospitalar, a ausência de PAS na avaliação inicial permaneceu no modelo. A reposição de volume foi o único fator com valor protetor para o risco de óbito presente em todos os momentos.

The prehospital care (PH) is an important resource to trauma victims' care. Nevertheless, there is great difficulty in demonstrating the PH intervention's positive effect in victim's survival, especially when concerning the advanced life support (ALS). The aim of this study is to characterize motor vehicle crash victims with Revised Trauma Score (RTS) <11 cared by municipal ALS and moved to tertiary hospitals in São Paulo in addition to identifying the prehospital variables associated to survival, and to evaluate their values as victim survival outcome determinant. The variables evaluated were: sex, age, trauma mechanism, basic life support and ALS procedures, physiological measures in the accident scene (considering the RTS, its parameters and fluctuations), the time consumed in PH phase, trauma severity by Injury Severity Score (ISS), the Maximum Abbreviated Injury Scale (MAIS) and number of lesions in each body region. The main results obtained by 175 victims between 12 e 65 years of age were submitted to the Kaplan Meier Survival Analysis and to Cox Proportional hazards Regression Analysis. The dependent variable was the survival time after the motor vehicle accident considering the intervals up to 6,12,24 and 48hs , up to 7 days and until the time of hospital discharge. Men (86,9%) and the 20 to 29 aged group (36%) were the most frequent. The pedestrians struck by car (45,1%) and the motorcycles (and their riders) (30,9%)were the highlight in trauma mechanisms. The RTS and the ISS average were 8,8 and 19,4 respectively. The more damaged body regions were head (58,8%), lower limbs (45,1%) and external surface (40%).The prehospital time average was 41 min (scene time 20,2min).Death rate was 36% (half of which up to 6hs).The statistical analysis revealed 24 survival associated factors. The ALS and the circulatory basic procedures, the RTS variables and the trauma severity (ISS,MAIS and number of lesions) within them. In the final Cox Model were associated to higher risk of death up to 48hs after trauma: the submission to ALS respiratory procedures, chest compressions, the presence of abdominal injuries and ISS>25 .Until the 7th day the chest compression was not sustained in a final model and the systolic blood pressure (SBP) from zero to 75mmHg revealed statistical association with death after trauma. Until hospital discharge the SBP absence in scene evaluation remained in the model. The prehospital intravenous fluid refilling was the only factor of protector value to death risk in all moments.

Protein expressions of multi-gene for predicting the prognosis of early breast cancer with COX model analysis / 中国癌症杂志

Background and purpose:The prognosis in patients with early breast cancer(EBC) was poorly defined by clinical and histopathological features.There were more than 200 genes that might be correlated with development,progression,recurrence and prognosis of breast cancer in the published literature.This study evaluated the prognosis of patients with EBC at molecule level according to the protein expressions of 16 selecting genes(HER2,ER,PR,BCL2,Ki-67,BMYB,Cyclin B1,STK15,MMP11,BAG1,NM23,PTEN,P53,P27,VEGF,PCN A).Methods:The immunohistochemical method was used to detect the protein expressions of these genes in 76 patients with EBC and the statistical analysis was performed by COX proportional hazards model.Results:COX proportional hazard model revealed that BCL2,VEGF and STK15 were independent prognostic factors for patients with EBC.A formula of PI was set up according the three genes.The predictive outcomes with PI were compared with the actual follow-up outcomes in 48 patients with EBC.As a result,the predictive accuracy of good and bad prognosis was 86.67% and 91.67%,respectively.Conclusion:A formula of PI derived from protein expressions of the 16 genes correlated with breast cancer was ultimately set up and might be used to predict the outcomes of the patients with EBC.

The evaluation of Survivin protein expression for the prognosis of postoperative patients with hepatocellular carcinoma / 中国普通外科杂志

Objective To evaluate the correlation between the expression of Survivin、VEGF and MMP 2 and the prognosis of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma Methods Expressions of Survivin、 VEGF and MMP 2 were detected by immunohistochemical S P method in 67 postoperative HCC cases Twelve candidate factors associated with long term survival were analyzed by Kaplan Meier Log rank estimation A multivariative Survival analysis of these individual variables was undertaken using the cumulative survival rate by the COX proportional hazards model Results A multivariative analysis determined three independent significant factors influencing overall cumulative survival including Survivin, VEGF, liver function (Child grade) The three prognostic factors predicted an increased risk of death from HCC Conclusion Survivin, VEGF, liver function, particularly the Child Pugh classification are the most significant prognostic factors for HCC patients undergoing hepatic resection

Therapeutic results and prognostic predictors of childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia: Cox regression analysis

Determining the current status of therapeutic results of acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL), and identifying the important clinical predictors of survival and relapse are essential for establishing therapeutic strategies. Sixty-two children with ALL who were admitted to Chonnam University Hospital from January 1983 to June 1991 were studied. With a mean follow-up period of 53.7 months, the overall 5-year survival rate (5YSR) was 46.1%. The overall rate of 5-year event-free survival (EFS) was 25.4% and significantly differed between risk groups: 48.7% for standard, 16.3% for high, and 12.5% for very high (p<.05). Overall 4-year survival after initial relapse was 34.2% and there was no significant difference in survival between those who relapsed during maintenance therapy and those who relapsed after completing maintenance. The Cox proportional hazards model identified central nervous system (CNS) irradiation (P<0.001) as having the most important influence upon EFS, followed by serum alanine aminotransferase level, platelet level, and age. On the other hand, CNS leukemia at diagnosis, followed by mediastinal mass, and hemoglobin level were found to be the most important prognostic predictors for relapse. On the basis that present results differ from those of developed countries, we suggest the necessity of a nation-wide cohort study to delineate the characteristics of Korean ALL in children, to make our own protocols, and ultimately to improve the therapeutic outcome.