Effect of lung wedge resection in the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer and the construction of postoperative recurrence risk model / 国际外科学杂志

Objective:Explore the efficacy of pulmonary wedge resection in the treatment of non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and risk factors for postoperative recurrence, and construct a risk prediction model.Methods:A retrospective analysis of the clinical data of 126 NSCLC patients were admitted to Mianyang Central Hospital from June 2018 to June 2020. According to different surgical methods, the patients were divided into pulmonary wedge resection group ( n=88) and lobectomy Group ( n=38). Compare the metastasis rate, recurrence rate, and fatality rate at 1 year after the two kinds of operations; according to the recurrence of the lung wedge resection group, the patients are divided into recurrence group ( n=15) and non-recurrence group ( n=73). The general data and preoperative laboratory examination indexes of the two groups of patients were compared; multivariate Logistic analysis of factors affecting postoperative recurrence of patients; a risk scoring model was constructed and its predictive value was evaluated. Enumeration data was expressed by the number of cases and percentage (%), and the comparison between groups was performed by chi-square test. Multivariate Logisitic regression analysis of factors affecting the recurrence of NSCLC patients at 1 year after pulmonary wedge resection; a risk scoring model was constructed according to risk factors, and X-tile software was used to obtain the cutoff value of the score; a calibration curve was used to evaluate the accuracy of the risk prediction model prediction The clinical decision curve evaluates the effectiveness of model predictions. Results:The surgical margin metastasis rate and mortality of patients in the pulmonary wedge resection group were 0 and 6.82%, and the lobectomy group were 13.16% and 21.05%, respectively. The differences between the two groups were statistically significant ( P<0.05); The proportion of patients with smoking history, vascular thrombus cancer, lymph node dissection ≤ 15, carcinoembryonic antigen >5 ng/mL, neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio>2.5, soluble CD105>4 ng/mL, vascular endothelial growth factor >9 ng/mL and matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP-9) > 300 μg/L in recurrent group were significantly higher than those in non-recurrent group. All of them were risk factors for recurrence after wedge pneumonectomy ( P<0.05); the above risk factors were incorporated into the risk scoring model, and weights of 22, 38, 25, 33, 20, 27, 36, and 30 were assigned respectively, and patients were classified as medium according to the cut-off value. Risk patients (≤78 points), high-risk patients (>78 points and ≤162 points), and extremely high-risk patients (>162 points). Conclusions:The effect of thoracoscopic wedge resection in the treatment of NSCLC is significantly better than that of thoracoscopic lobectomy. The construction of a risk scoring model for predicting postoperative recurrence of patients is beneficial to early identification of high-risk groups in clinical practice, and to guide medical staff to adopt personalized treatment and nursing care measures.

Risk scoring system for bronchopulmonary dysplasia in very and extremely preterm infants / 中华围产医学杂志

Objective:To investigate the risk factors and establish a risk scoring system for bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) in very and extremely preterm infants.Methods:From December 2013 to December 2018, 254 very and extremely preterm infants with less than 32 weeks of gestation hospitalized for 28 d and above in the Third Staff Hospital of Baotou Steel Group were retrospectively enrolled. According to the diagnostic criteria of BPD, they were divided into　the BPD group ( n=129) or the non-BPD group ( n=125). Clinical data and the risk factors for BPD were analyzed with univariate t-test, Chi-square test, rank-sum test, and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Based on the results, the risk scoring system was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, sensitivity, and specificity. Results:Logistic regression analysis showed that gestational age, neonatal respiratory distress syndrome (NRDS), ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP), and duration of ventilation >7 d were the risk factors for BPD (all P<0.05). When the area under the ROC curve was 0.868 (95% CI: 0.823-0.913, P<0.001) and the maximum Youden index was 0.644, the sensitivity of the scoring systems for BPD was 0.884 (95% CI: 0.812-0.931), and the specificity was 0.760 (95% CI: 0.674-0.830). Conclusions:Gestational age, NRDS, VAP, and prolonged duration of ventilation were the risk factors for BPD. The risk scoring system established has the prediction value on BPD in very and extremely preterm infants.

Assessment Of 10-Year Risk Of Developing A Major Cardiovascular Event In Patients Attending A Hospital For The Treatment Of Other Disorders

Objective: To assess the individual’s predicted risk of developing a CVD event in 10 y using risk scores among persons with other disorders/diseases. Methods: This is a cross-sectional observational study conducted for a period of 6 mo among 283 subjects. Total risk was estimated individually by using Framingham Risk Scoring Algorithm and ASCVD risk estimator. Results: According to Framingham Risk score the prevalence of low risk (<10%) identified as 67.84% (192), followed by intermediate risk (10%-19%), 19.08% (54), and high risk (≥20%) 13.07% (37). By using ASCVD Risk estimator, risk has reported in our study population was low risk (<5%) is 48.76% (138), borderline risk (5-7.4%) is 13.07% (37), intermediate risk (7.5-19.9%) is about 25.09% (71), high risk (>20%) is about 13.07% (37). Conclusion: In this study burden of CVD risk was relatively low, which was estimated by both the Framingham scale and ASCVD Risk estimator. Risk scoring of individuals helps us to identify the patients at high risk of CV diseases and also helps in providing management strategies.

Applicability of the Cleveland clinic scoring system for the risk prediction of acute kidney injury after cardiac surgery in a South Asian cohort

Background Acute kidney injury (AKI) after cardiac surgery is a frequent post-operative complication associated with an increased risk of mortality, morbidity and hospital costs. Preoperative risk scores such as the Cleveland Clinic Scoring Tool (CCST) have been validated in Western population group to identify patients at higher risk of AKI and may facilitate preventive strategies. However, the scoring tool has not been validated systematically in a South Asian cohort. We aimed to evaluate the applicability of the CCST in prediction of AKI after open cardiac surgery in a South–Indian tertiary care center. Materials and methods A retrospective study of all patients who underwent elective open cardiac surgery over a 4 year period from Jan 2012 to Dec 2015 at a single centre were included and relevant details extracted from a comprehensive chart review. The primary outcome was AKI as defined by the Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) criteria. Patients were risk stratified as per the CCST to assess for prediction of AKI into low risk (0–2), intermediate risk (3–5) and high risk (>6) groups. Results A total of 276 patients underwent open cardiac surgery with mean age of 51.5 ± 13.06 yrs. This included 177 (64.1%) males and 99 females (35.8%). Overall incidence of AKI was 6.88%. Mean age, gender, BMI, preoperative serum creatinine, diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cardiopulmonary bypass time was similar in patients who developed AKI vs those who did not have AKI postoperatively. The mean CCST scores were 1.6 in those without AKI, 1.5 in stage 1, 3.0 in stage 2 and 3.4 in stage 3 AKI. Higher risk scores predicted greater risk of AKI. A total of 106 patients (38.4%) were on ACE/ARB, 119 patients (43.1%) received beta-blockers, 110 (39.8%) received diuretics while 144(52.1%) had received preoperative statins. Comparison of drug use between the two groups revealed that preoperative use of ACEI/ARB was associated with highest risk of AKI (p = 0.006). Mortality rate was also high at 15.7% in those with AKI compared to 3.1% in non-AKI group (p = 0.04). Conclusion The modified CCST was valid in risk identification of patients with severe stage of AKI but did not have strong discrimination for early AKI stages. Preoperative statin use did not protect against AKI in our study, however preoperative ARB/ACEI use was significantly associated with occurrence of postoperative AKI.

Cardiovascular Risk Calculators: Back to Basics

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading global cause of mortality and morbidity. Risk assessment of asymptomatic individuals plays an important role in the primary prevention of CVD and its complications by guiding management decisions, in particular the decision to use statins or antiplatelet agents, as well as more controversially, the target level for risk factors such as hypertension and cholesterol. Timely and regular risk assessments also identify the development of physiological disturbances such as pre-hypertension, pre-diabetes, dyslipidaemias, clinical obesity and metabolic syndrome, which can be asymptomatic in the early stages, but may lead to increased risk for many ageing-related degenerative diseases, including CVD. These physiological mal-adaptations are remarkably responsive to behavioural lifestyle interventions at an early stage, and may be stabilised or even reversed without medications. This article describes the why and how of assessing CVD risk and a suggested framework for management, including the appropriate use of behavioural lifestyle interventions as first-line treatment. It also describes the various risk scores available, their differences and limitations and how to best use them in clinical practice. More research is required regarding the use of non-traditional and emerging markers of CVD risk such as carotid intima-media thickness, coronary artery calcium scoring, hsCRP, ankle brachial index, Apo-B, albuminuria, and how they may be incorporated into existing risk models.

Validation of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation-II model in an urban Indian population and comparison with three other risk scoring systems.

Aims and Objectives: The aims were to compare the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE)‑II system against three established risk scoring systems for predictive accuracy in an urban Indian population and suggest improvements or amendments in the existing scoring system for adaptation in Indian population. Materials and Methods: EuroSCORE‑II, Parsonnet score, System‑97 score, and Cleveland score were obtained preoperatively for 1098 consecutive patients. EuroSCORE‑II system was analyzed in comparison to each of the above three scoring systems in an urban Indian population. Calibrations of scoring systems were assessed using Hosmer–Lemeshow test. Areas under receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were compared according to the statistical approach suggested by Hanley and McNeil. Results: All EuroSCORE‑II subgroups had highly significant P values stating good predictive mortality, except high‑risk group (P = 0.175). The analysis of ROC curves of different scoring systems showed that the highest predictive value for mortality was calculated for the System‑97 score followed by the Cleveland score. System‑97 revealed extremely high predictive accuracies across all subgroups (curve area >80%). This difference in predictive accuracy was found to be statistically significant (P < 0.001). Conclusions: The present study suggests that the EuroSCORE‑II model in its present form is not validated for use in the Indian population. An interesting observation was significantly accurate predictive abilities of the System‑97 score

Hemorragia digestiva alta no varicosa: comportamiento e índice de Rockall / Behavior and Rockall risk scoring in the non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding

Introducción: la hemorragia digestiva alta no varicosa es actualmente una emergencia quirúrgica de difícil manejo, hecho que motivó el conocer su comportamiento y, usando el índice de Rockall, el riesgo de los afectados de sufrir resultados adversos durante su evolución, aquellos de posible alta precoz y las causas que la impiden. Métodos: estudio descriptivo de corte transversal realizado en el Hospital General Docente Ernesto Guevara de la Serna con 182 pacientes atendidos entre 2009 y 2010. Resultados: los hombres fueron los más afectados (54,4 por ciento) y el grupo de 60-80 años tuvo el mayor número de casos. La úlcera gastroduodenal fue la primera causa (52,7 por ciento). La melena se presentó como manifestación inicial en el 60,4 por ciento de los pacientes. La hipertensión arterial fue la comorbilidad más frecuente (60,7 por ciento). El 44,5 por ciento de los pacientes necesitó transfusión sanguínea. La mortalidad fue del 8,2 por ciento. La mayor parte de la muestra se ubicó en el grupo de riesgo intermedio de Rockall (40,1 por ciento). Recibió alta precoz solo el 11,5 por cientode los pacientes, y la inestabilidad hemodinámica (38 por ciento) fue la mayor responsable de este bajo número. El Rockall tuvo sensibilidad del 98,3 por ciento, especificidad del 56,9 por ciento, valor predictivo positivo del 52,3 por ciento, valor predictivo negativo del 98,6 por ciento y una exactitud del 70,9 por ciento. En los pacientes clasificados de bajo riesgo la única complicación fue la recidiva (1,4 por ciento). Conclusiones: el alta precoz puede ser dada a pacientes con Rockall bajo, siempre que se preste especial atención a la estabilidad hemodinámica.

Introduction: Non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding is a current surgical emergency of difficult management. This fact prompted the authors to find out its behavior and to use Rockall risk scoring system to determine the risk of suffering adverse effects during the recovery period, those patients that may be early discharged and the causes that prevent it. Methods: Cross-sectional descriptive study conducted in 182 patients from Ernesto Guevara de la Serna general teaching hospital, who were seen in the period of 2009 through 2010. Results: Males were the most affected (54.4 per cent) and the 60-80 years age group registered the highest number of cases. Gastroduodenal ulcer was the first cause (52.7 por ciento). The initial manifestation was tarry stools in 64 per cent of cases. Blood hypertension was the most frequent comorbidity (60.7per cent). In the study group, 44.5per cent of patients needed blood transfusion. The mortality rate was 8.2 per cent. Most of patients were classified as intermediate risk cases according to Rockall system (40.1 per cent). Just 11.5 per cent of patients were early discharged since the hemodynamic instability (38 per cent) was the main responsible for this low number. Rockall risk scoring system showed 98.3per cent sensitivity, 56.9per cent specificity, 52.3 per cent positive predictive value, 98.6per cent negative predictive value and 70.9 per cent accuracy. The only complication in low risk patients were relapse (1.4 per cent). Conclusions: Early discharge from hospital occurs in low Rockall risk score patients provided that special attention is paid to hemodynamic stability.

Use of the complete Rockall score and the Forrest classification to assess outcome in patients with non-variceal upper gastrointestinal bleeding subject to after-hours endoscopy: a retrospective cohort study / El uso de la puntuación de Rockall completa y la clasificación de Forrest para evaluar resultados en pacientes con hemorragia gastrointestinal alta no varicosa sometidos a endoscopía de urgencia: un estudio de cohorte retrospectivo

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the usefulness of the Forrest classification and the complete Rockall score with customary cut-off values for assessing the risk of adverse events in patients with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGI-B) subject to after-hours emergency oesophago-gastro-duodenoscopy (E-EGD) within six hours after admission. METHODS: The medical records of patients with non-variceal UGI-B proven by after-hours endoscopy were analysed. For 'high risk' situations (Forrest stage Ia-IIb/complete Rockall score > 2), univariate analysis was conducted to evaluate odds ratio for reaching the study endpoints (30-day and one-year mortality, re-bleeding, hospital stay > 3 days). RESULTS: During the study period (75 months), 86 cases (85 patients) met the inclusion criteria. Patients' age was 66.36 ± 14.38 years; 60.5% were male. Mean duration of hospital stay was 15.21 ± 19.24 days. Mortality rate was 16.7% (30 days) and 32.9% (one year); 14% of patients re-bled. Univariate analysis of post-endoscopic Rockall score > 2 showed an odds ratio of 6.09 for death within 30 days (p = 0.04). No other significant correlations were found. CONCLUSION: In patients with UGI-B subject to after-hours endoscopy, a 'high-risk'Rockall score permits an estimation of the risk of death within 30 days but not of re-bleeding. A 'high-risk'Forrest score is not significantly associated with the study endpoints.

OBJETIVOS: Evaluar la utilidad de la clasificación de Forrest y la puntuación de Rockall completa con los valores límites habituales a fin de evaluar el riesgo de eventos adversos en los pacientes con hemorragia gastrointestinal alta (HGIA) sometidos a una esofagogastroduodenoscopia (EGD) de urgencia dentro de seis horas después del ingreso. MÉTODOS: Se analizaron las historias clínicas de pacientes con HGIA de origen no varicoso comprobada por endoscopia de urgencia. Para las situaciones de 'alto riesgo' (etapa Forrest Ia- IIb/puntuación de Rockall completa >2), se realizó un análisis univariado para evaluar las probabilidades de riesgo (oddsratio) y llegar a los criterios de valoración del estudio (mortalidad de 30 días y un año, resangrado, estancia hospitalaria > 3 días). RESULTADOS: Durante el periodo de estudio (75 meses), 86 casos (85 pacientes) cumplieron los criterios de inclusión. La edad de los pacientes fue de 66.36 ± 14.38 años; 60.5% eran varones. La duración promedio de estancia hospitalaria fue de 15.21 ± 19.24 días. La tasa de mortalidad fue de 16.7% (30 días) y 32.9% (1 año); el 14% de los pacientes volvió a tener sangramiento. El análisis univariado de la puntuación Rockall postendoscópica > 2 mostró un odds-ratio de 6.09 por muerte en 30 días (p = 0.04). No se encontraron otras correlaciones significativas. CONCLUSIÓN: En pacientes con HGIA sometidos a endoscopía de urgencia, una puntuación Rockall de 'alto riesgo'permite una estimación del riesgo de muerte dentro de 30 días, pero no de resangrado. Una puntuación Forrest de 'alto riesgo' no es significativa con respecto a los criterios de valoración del estudio.

Early Risk Assessment In Right Ventricular Infarction By TIMI Risk Score.

Background: Inferior myocardial infarction complicated by right ventricular infarction is associated with a greater risk of in-hospital mortality and cardiovascular related complications. Early risk stratification of patients with right ventricular infarction is crucial for appropriate management and reduction of adverse cardiac events. The development of TIMI risk score has provided a useful tool to quickly and easily stratify patients with right ventricular infarction. We conducted this study to evaluate the prognostic value of TIMI Risk Score analysis in patients with right ventricular infarction. Methods: This observational study was conducted in the department of Cardiology in NICVD, Dhaka, from July 2006 to June 2008. Considering inclusion and exclusion criteria, a total of 60 patients with right ventricular infarction were evaluated. All the patients were evaluated clinically and ECG was done after admission. Patients were categorized into two groups by TIMI risk scoring. Patients with low TIMI risk score(0-3) were in Group-I and patients with high TIMI risk score(4- 14) were in Group-II. Results: The study revealed no statistically significant difference among the patients of two groups (p>0.05) in relation to sex, weight, risk factors and presenting complaints. Analysis revealed statistically significant difference among the patients of two groups (p<0.05) in relation to age, duration of chest pain, clinical parameters, Killip class of heart failure and LVEF. Regarding inhospital outcome, 51.7% patients developed complications during the study period and all the complications were more in group II patients with high TIMI risk score(4-14). Death (18.3%) was the most common complication followed by cardiogenic shock (15.0%), complete heart block(6.6%),cardiac arrest(6.6%),VT(3.3%)and 2nd degree heart block(1.6%). Conclusion: This study indicates that on admission - TIMI risk score analysis can identify patients with right ventricular infarction at higher risk for in-hospital mortality and morbidity.

Scoring of prognostic factors that influence long-term survival in patients with hepatic metastasis of colorectal cancer

BACKGROUNDS/AIMS: To find independent predictors that affect the survival in patients with hepatic metastasis of colorectal cancer after surgery and to devise a risk scoring system. METHODS: Among 150 patients who underwent hepatic resection after diagnosis of colorectal cancer with hepatic metastasis between March 1994 and February 2009, we analyzed clinical, pathologic and outcome data retrospectively. RESULTS: The 1-year survival rate was 83%, and the 5-year survival rate was 35%. Nine factors were found to be independent predictors of adverse outcome by univariate analysis: stage of primary tumor, CA19-9 >36 U/ml, extrahepatic disease, distribution of the hepatic tumor, number of hepatic tumors >3, largest hepatic tumor >5 cm, total size >10 cm, CEA >10 ng/ml, and metachronous cancer. The last two of these criteria were also significant risk factors on multivariate analysis. When these criteria were used as a risk scoring system, assigning one point for each criterion and dividing the cases into A, B and C groups, the total score was highly predictive of outcomes (p<0.001). No patients in group C (6 to 9 points) were long-term survivors. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term outcome can be predicted from nine criteria that are readily available for all patients. Patients meeting up to two criteria (group A) are more likely to have a favorable outcome compared to the three or over (groups B and C). This scoring system may offer an easy, rapid, and reliable prognostic indicator of survival outcome after hepatic resection in patients with hepatic metastasis from colorectal cancer.