Rendimiento en los juegos panamericanos de Santiago 2023: predicción mediante método de suavización exponencial simple / Performance at the Santiago 2023 pan american games: prediction using a simple exponential smoothing method / Desempenho nos jogos pan-americanos de Santiago 2023: predição usando o método de suavização exponencial simples

El objetivo del presente trabajo es analizar el desempeño deportivo de la delegación chilena en los Juegos Panamericanos celebrados entre los años 1951 y 2023, haciendo uso de datos retrospectivos y proyectivos a través de series temporales de tiempo. Para esto se empleó un diseño cuantitativo, no experimental y longitudinal de tendencias y un método de suavización exponencial simple, que utiliza promedios históricos y que permite realizar una predicción o comportamiento futuro basado en una media ponderada de los valores actuales y de los pasados. A partir de los resultados obtenidos, fue posible concluir que, en las últimas décadas, la ubicación de Chile en el ranking de los Juegos Panamericanos se ha estabilizado en torno a un onceavo lugar, posición pronosticada para Santiago 2023. Manteniéndose condiciones similares, el desempeño deportivo general y específico no tendría un quiebre exponencial de la tendencia y los resultados no resultan favorables, específicamente en lo que respecta a la obtención de medallas de oro y la posición general de la delegación.

The objective of this paper is to analyze the sports performance of the Chilean delegation in the Pan American Games held between 1951 and 2023, using retrospective and projective data through time series. For this purpose, a quantitative, non-experimental and longitudinal design of trends and a simple exponential smoothing method was used, which uses historical averages and allows a prediction or future behavior based on a weighted average of current and past values. From the results obtained, it was possible to conclude that, in recent decades, Chile's position in the Pan American Games ranking has stabilized around eleventh place, a position predicted for Santiago 2023. Maintaining similar conditions, the general and specific sporting performance would not have an exponential break in the trend and the results are not favorable, specifically in terms of obtaining gold medals and the overall position of the delegation.

O objetivo deste artigo é analisar o desempenho esportivo da delegação chilena nos Jogos Pan-Americanos realizados entre 1951 e 2023, usando dados retrospectivos e projetivos por meio de séries temporais. Para isso, foi utilizado um desenho quantitativo, não experimental e longitudinal de tendências e um método de suavização exponencial simples, que utiliza médias históricas e permite uma previsão do comportamento futuro com base em uma média ponderada dos valores atuais e passados. Com base nos resultados obtidos, foi possível concluir que, nas últimas décadas, a posição do Chile no ranking dos Jogos Pan-Americanos se estabilizou em torno do 11º lugar, posição prevista para Santiago 2023. Mantendo-se condições semelhantes, o desempenho esportivo geral e específico não teria uma quebra exponencial na tendência e os resultados não são favoráveis, especificamente em termos de conquista de medalhas de ouro e posição geral da delegação.

Exceso de mortalidad en México en 2020: una estimación preliminar a nivel nacional y estatal / Excess mortality in Mexico 2020: a preliminary estimate at national and state level

Resumen Como consecuencia directa o indirecta de la pandemia de COVID-19, junto con otros problemas de salud pública preexistentes, México se ha posicionado como uno de los países más afectados en cuanto al exceso de mortalidad, la cual está prácticamente generalizada, pero es heterogénea según el estado. Por ello, se tiene por objetivo cuantificarla a nivel nacional y estatal por medio del porcentaje de exceso de mortalidad (% 𝐸𝑀) y de diferencias en esperanzas de vida (𝐸𝑀𝑒𝑥 ) por sexo. En particular, para 𝐸𝑀𝑒𝑥 , se construyeron tablas de mortalidad con tasas específicas que se suavizan de manera controlada y por segmentos, con un enfoque no paramétrico. Los resultados mostraron una demasía en la población masculina y en algunos estados del país. Asimismo, respecto a 𝐸𝑀𝑒𝑥 , se evidenciaron fuertes retrocesos en la esperanza de vida en ciertos casos, incluida la capital del país: la Ciudad de México.

Abstract As a direct or indirect consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic, joint other punlic health problems, Mexico is one of the most affected countries in terms of excess mortality, which is generalized and heterogeneous at the state level. That is why, the papers aim is to quantify it at national and subnational level both through the percentage of excess mortality (% 𝐸𝑀) and using differences in life expectancies (𝐸𝑀𝑒𝑥 ) by sex. For (𝐸𝑀𝑒𝑥 ), mortality tables are constructed with specific rates that are estimated through a non-parametric approach so-called controlled and segmented smoothing. The results show the greatest excesses in male population and for some states of the country. Likewise, regarding 𝐸𝑀𝑒𝑥 , strong setbacks in life expectancy can be observed including the Mexico City.

Trabajo precario y cuidado de la salud en varones de clase popular en Buenos Aires, Argentina / Precarious Work and Health Care among Working-Class Men in Buenos Aires, Argentina

Resumen Introducción: analizamos los vínculos entre trabajo y salud a partir de las experiencias laborales de varones adultos que residen en un barrio de clase popular del conurbano de Buenos Aires. Específicamente, examinamos cómo la precariedad laboral afecta su salud psicofísica, dadas las condiciones de trabajo que los exponen a diversos riesgos y privaciones en detrimento de la calidad de vida y el cuidado de la salud. Metodología: los datos provienen de entrevistas en profundidad realizadas a varones adultos como parte de un estudio mayor sobre cuidado de la salud con residentes del barrio. Resultados: la precariedad laboral afecta la salud de los entrevistados de diversas formas. Algunos de ellos han estado expuestos a riesgos físicos y psicosociales por la naturaleza de su trabajo. Se destacan, asimismo, las consecuencias negativas de dicho ambiente sobre la calidad de vida y las posibilidades de cuidado por fuera de la esfera laboral, esto limita las posibilidades de proyectar a futuro, organizar la vida diaria y desarrollar prácticas de autocuidado. Conclusiones: se enfatiza la importancia de considerar la precariedad laboral como un determinante social de la salud, en tanto constituye un factor multidimensional que permite entender sus consecuencias en el bienestar de los varones de clase popular. Además, a lo largo del curso de vida se hacen más evidentes sus efectos nocivos, en parte, por la presencia de problemas de salud crónicos, pero también por las desventajas acumuladas en esas trayectorias vulnerables.

Abstract Introduction: We analyze the relation between work and health drawing on the labor experiences of adult men who reside in a working-class neighborhood located in the periphery of Buenos Aires City. More specifically, we analyze how precarious jobs impact on their psychophysical health through work conditions that expose them to diverse risks and deprivations for quality of life and health care. Methodology:Data come from qualitative, in-depth, interviews that we conducted with adult men as part of a larger study on health care with residents of the neighborhood. Results: Precarious jobs affect health in various ways. Some of the interviewees have been exposed to physical and psychosocial risks due to the work conditions and environment in the workplace. The negative consequences that precarious jobs have for quality of life are also salient, by limiting their capability to plan ahead, organize everyday life and develop self-care practices. Conclusions: We highlight the importance of considering precarious work as a social determinant of health, since it is a multidimensional trait that helps to analyze its negative consequences on working-class men. We also point to the adverse consequences for health of precarious jobs throughout the life-course, in part, due to age-based chronic conditions but also due to the cumulative disadvantages produced by precarious and vulnerable work trajectories.

Time Series Analysis of COVID-19 Data- A study from Northern India

The continuing new Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has caused millions of infections and thousands of fatalities globally. Identification of potential infection cases and the rate of virus propagation is crucial for early healthcare service planning to prevent fatalities. The research community is faced with the analytical and difficult real-world task of accurately predicting the spread of COVID-19. We obtained COVID-19 temporal data from District Surveillance Officer IDSP, Dehradun cum District Nodal Officer- Covid-19 under CMO, Department of Medical Health and Family Welfare, Government of Uttarakhand State, India, for the period, March 17, 2020, to May 6, 2022, and applied single exponential method forecasting model to estimate the COVID-19 outbreak's future course. The root relative squared error, root mean square error, mean absolute percentage error, and mean absolute error were used to assess the model's effectiveness. According to our prediction, 5438 people are subjected to hospitalization by September 2022, assuming that COVID cases will increase in the future and take on a lethal variety, as was the case with the second wave. The outcomes of the forecasting can be utilized by the government to devise strategies to stop the virus's spread.

Dose effect of fluence-smoothing on intensity modulated planning after rectal cancer surgery / 中国辐射卫生

Objective To compare the dosimetric differences of four fluence smoothing (FS) levels of the Monaco system in intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) after rectal cancer surgery, and to provide a reference for FS selection in clinical practice. Methods A total of 15 postoperative patients with rectal cancer admitted in 2020 were selected. Under the same optimal conditions, FS was set to Off, Low, Medium, and High for IMRT planning. The data were analyzed by SPSS 20.0 software. The dosimetric parameters of planning target volume and organs at risk (OARs), the number of Segments, the number of monitor units (MUs), the estimated total delivery time (ETDT), and the gamma pass rate were compared between the four FS levels. Results The four FS levels resulted in clinically acceptable dosimetric parameters of the planning target volume and OARs, and there was no significant difference in dose distribution between FS levels. From FS-Off to FS-High, number of Segments, number of Mus, and ETDT decreased by 15.2%, 11.8%, and 6.7%, respectively, whereas gamma pass rate increased by 1.6%. Conclusion The IMRT plans at four FS levels can meet the clinical requirements. Considering the planning quality and execution efficiency, FS-High is recommended for postoperative IMRT of patients with rectal cancer.

Electromechanical Effects of Bone Remodeling Based on Edge Smoothed Finite Element Method / 医用生物力学

Objective Aiming at solving the problem of poor accuracy for numerical solution of traditional finite element method (FEM) in numerical analysis on piezoelectric effects of bone remodelling, a model with an edge-based smoothed FEM (ES-FEM) was proposed. Methods The bone model was discretized by triangular elements, and the smoothing domain was constructed based on edges of the existing mesh element. Based on gradient smoothing technique, the smoothed strain gradient and the smoothed electric field gradient were obtained, and the discrete equations of the system were constructed under the framework of smoothed Galerkin weakform. Results The changes of bone mineral density (BMD) and the distributions of electric potential under piezoelectric effects in the process of bone remodelling were reflected by using the above model. Compared with FEM, ES-FEM could improve the accuracy of simulation result for bone remodelling to a certain extent. Conclusions The proposed ES-FEM can simulate the process of bone remodelling more accurately. The accurate prediction for piezoelectric effect of bone reconstruction by this method provides an effective theoretical basis for clinical research of bone diseases.

Impact of fluence smoothing on the dosimetry of cervical cancer radiotherapy / 中国辐射卫生

Objective To explore the dosimetric differences of radiotherapy plan for cervical cancer with 4 different fluence smoothing (FS) parameters using Monaco treatment planning system (Monaco TPS). Methods Fifteen patients with ⅠB2 stage cervical cancer in our hospital were enrolled in this study. And a 2 Volumetric Modulated Arc Therapy (VMAT) plan for each patient were completed by Monaco 5.11 TPS according to the X-Ray Voxel Monte Carlo (XVMC) method. For each plan was optimized by FS function, with the level of Off, Low, Medium and High. To compare the difference of plan optimization time, conformity index (CI), Homogeneity index (HI), Dmean, Dmin, D2% of PTV，dose to the organ at risk (OAR)，the number of Segments# and MU#，estimated total delivery time (ETDT), quantum Efficiency (QE) of the plans, the formation of Segments# with the same angle and verification of inserting 729 two-dimensional matrix into PTW octavius 4D module of different FS function levels, with the precondition of the Prescription isodose curve covering 95% of the target area. The data was analysed by multivariate factor analysis with the application of SPSS, and P < 0.05 was considered as statistically significant. And the Planned revenue score of different FS levels was also calculated. Results Except for the Dmin of PTV (the lowest value is (32.09 ± 0.26) Gy for the Off group, and the highest value is (35.98 ± 0.42) Gy for the High group), V40 of the rectum (the lowest value in the Medium group is 55.88% ± 2.02%, and the highest value in the High group was 61.90% ± 2.98%) and bladder (the lowest value was 45.01% ± 2.08% in the Medium group, and the highest value is 50.45% ± 1.98% in the High group), the V20 (the lowest value High group was 49.05% ± 1.98%, the highest value Off group was 56.52% ± 1.75%) of femoral head (P < 0.05), there was no significant difference of the dose assessment results for PTV and OARs in 4 different FS function levels. In the High level, the ETDT, QE and MU# were showed better than other groups evidently, however, the number of Segments# showed no significant difference. The plan validation results was increased with the improvement of FS function level, and the level of High was considered to be the optimal. To compare the score of overall benefits of the plan, the level of Medium (−17.18 ± 0.05) got the highest score, and the Low group (−17.58 ± 0.05) and the High group (−17.42 ± 0.06) have similar scores, and Off group (−18.81 ± 0.08) has the lowest score. Conclusion Different FS levels of the Monaco 5.11 TPS can optimize the radiotherapy plan for cervical cancer, but the level of Medium is considered to be the most applicable.

Factors associated with red blood cell transfusion among hospitalized patients: a cross-sectional study / 浙江大学学报（英文版）（B辑：生物医学和生物技术）

Red blood cell (RBC) transfusion is a clinically effective therapy in anemia, for example in patients with malignancies (Shander et al., 2020), bleeding (Odutayo et al., 2017), and preoperative anemia (Padmanabhan et al., 2019). The past few decades have witnessed a shortage of blood for transfusion due to limited health insurance coverage for blood use and the rapid expansion of hospitals (Chen et al., 2011; Shi et al., 2014). Blood donation levels may easily be affected by general changes in the environment, policy, major events such as disasters, and public sentiment (Hu et al., 2019). Meanwhile, the transfusion of allogeneic RBC is a double-edged sword, increasing the possibility of infectious and immunological complications, and also leading to higher morbidity and mortality after transfusion (Frank et al., 2012). Considering that the continual shortfall has been increasingly prominent, identifying the factors associated with RBC transfusion could help blood transfusion departments to improve their supply of blood products as well as their inventory management (O'Donnell et al., 2018).

Analytic Hierarchy Process Algorithm Applied to Battery Energy Storage System Selection for Grid Applications

Abstract The Brazilian Power Sector is preparing the introduction of battery energy storage in its distribution lines for energy quality control. The technical and financial viability of this new technology depends on several factors: battery technologies, geographical locations, environmental restrictions and the local regulation. One of the objectives of the present project was to create a methodology for helping technicians to choose the best battery technology for each particular application. The Analytic Hierarchy Process - AHP algorithm was selected to take into account all the above-mentioned factors. This methodology was applied to a case study considering four different commercially available battery energy storage systems (BESS) and the methodology was able to recommend the best choice by taking into account all the criteria and subcriteria considered. The second objective of the present project is to evaluate a real hybrid BESS operation composed of two different battery technologies. Up to the moment when this paper was submitted the BESS has not been installed yet. The installation place has already been selected, a feeder-line with 1,360 kW peak power, and monitored for energy quality. The BESS has been sized, a 250 kW/1 MWh flow battery together with a 250 kW/500 kWh lithium-ion battery and the purchase process has been initiated. Both battery technologies will work in separate and joint operations for power quality in on-grid and island cases.

Analysis of the technical feasibility of using artificial intelligence for smoothing active power in a photovoltaic system connected to the power system

Abstract Recent technological advances and increased participation of energy systems based on photovoltaic solar energy place this renewable energy source in a prominent position in the current scenario. With the increase in the share of solar photovoltaic systems, the impact of power fluctuations in these sources has worsened, which can affect the quality of electrical energy and the reliability of the electrical power system. Therefore, with the use of energy storage together with control algorithms based on artificial intelligence, it is possible to control and perform power smoothing. In this context, the study presents a technical feasibility study on the use of artificial neural network (ANN) to perform the power smoothing of the photovoltaic system connected to the network. Being studied the performance of a real photovoltaic system operating in conjunction with an ideal energy storage for comparative analysis of the performance of the artificial neural network when the numbers of neurons and layers are modified for different real operating conditions considered as temperature variation, humidity, irradiation, pressure and wind speed, which are considered to be ANN input data. The results obtained point to the feasibility of using ANN, with acceptable precision, for power smoothing. According to the analyzes carried out, it is clear that ANN's with few neurons, the smoothing profile tends to be more accurate when compared to larger amounts of neurons. In the current state of the study, it was not possible to determine a relationship between the variations in the number of neurons with the most accurate results, it is important to note that the development of the curve pointed by the neural network can be influenced by the database. It should be noted that, when ANN exceeds or does not reach the optimal smoothing curve, the storage system compensates for the lack or excess of power, and there is a need for other mechanisms to optimize power smoothing.

Image smoothing using regularized entropy minimization and self-similarity for the quantitative analysis of drug diffusion

Background: Targetable drug delivery is an important method for the treatment of liver tumors. For the quantitative analysis of drug diffusion, the establishment of a method for information collection and characterization of extracellular space is developed by imaging analysis of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) sequences. In this paper, we smoothed out interferential part in scanned digital MRI images. Materials and Methods: Making full use of priors of low rank, nonlocal self-similarity, and regularized sparsity-promoting entropy, a block-matching regularized entropy minimization algorithm is proposed. Sparsity-promoting entropy function produces much sparser representation of grouped nonlocal similar blocks of image by solving a nonconvex minimization problem. Moreover, an alternating direction method of multipliers algorithm is proposed to iteratively solve the problem above. Results and Conclusions: Experiments on simulated and real images reveal that the proposed method obtains better image restorations compared with some state-of-the-art methods, where most information is recovered and few artifacts are produced

Application of the exponential smoothing model and ARIMA model in prediction of the endemic situation of schistosomiasis in Hunan Province / 中国血吸虫病防治杂志

Objective To predict the changes in the prevalence of Schistosoma japonicum infections in humans and livestock in Hunan Province using the exponential smoothing model and the ARIMA model. Methods The data pertaining to S. japonicum infections in humans and livestock in Hunan Province from 1957 to 2015 were collected, and the exponential smoothing model and the ARIMA model were created using the software Eviews and PASW Statistics 18.0. In addition, the effectiveness of these two models for the prediction of S. japonicum infections in humans and livestock in Hunan Province from 2016 to 2018 was evaluated. Results The exponential smoothing model and the ARIMA model had a high goodness of fit for prediction of S. japonicum infections in humans and livestock in Hunan Province from 1957 to 2015. There was a linear trend in the prevalence of S. japonicum infections in humans and livestock in Hunan Province from 1957 to 2015. The prevalence of S. japonicum infections in humans predicted with the Brown’s linear trend and the prevalence of S. japonicum infections in livestock predicted with the Holt’s linear trend in Hunan Province from 2016 to 2018 fitted better the actual data than the ARIMA model; however, prediction of the ARIMA model indicated that the endemic situation of schistosomiasis remained at a low level in Hunan Province. Conclusion At a low epidemic level, development of highly sensitive tools for monitoring schistosomiasis is urgently needed in Hunan Province to fit the current endemic situation, and the schistosomiasis control measures should be intensified to consolidate the control achievements.

COVID-19 analysis and forecast based on Exponential Smoothing Model in Hubei Province / 公共卫生与预防医学

Objective To analyze and forecast the epidemic of the new coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) in Hubei Province. Methods Exponential Smoothing Model was applied to fit the tendency of the number of confirmed cases, discharged cases, death cases, severe cases and critical cases. Results The epidemic of COVID-19 in Hubei province has been gradually alleviated, the rapid remission period and slow remission period were occurred after February 18th and March 21st, respectively. The Exponential Smoothing Model was significantly fit well and the fitting values were basically consistent with the actual values. Predicted results indicated that the number of existing confirmed cases was expected to reduce to less than 1 000 on April 2nd, and was mainly consist of severe and critical cases. Conclusions The prevention and control measures of COVID-19 in Hubei province were effective, and the Exponential Smoothing Model was applicable to predicate the epidemic of COVID-19.

Dosimetric comparison among volumetric modulate arc therapy plans with different fluence smoothing in the treatment of patients with middle and upper thoracic esophageal carcinoma / 中华放射医学与防护杂志

Objective@#To compare the dosimetric differences of volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) plans optimized with 3 different fluence smoothing parameters using Monaco treatment planning system.@*Methods@#A total of 15 patients with middle and upper esophageal carcinoma were planned with Low fluence smoothing (Low), Medium fluence smoothing (Medium) and High fluence smoothing(High) during VMAT optimization. The dosimetric differences in D95, Dmean, conformity index (CI), homogeneity index (HI) of targets, dose volume histogram (DVH) of organs at risk (OARs), and monitor unit (MU) were compared.@*Results@#There were no significant differences in D95, Dmean, CI and HI of targets, as well as in V40 and Dmean of the heart, V10, V20 and Dmean of the lung , and segment number among plans optimized with different fluence smoothing techniques (P>0.05). Plans with high fluence smoothing achieved less V30 of heart, Dmax of cord PRV(t=-2.167, -0.999, P<0.05), lower MU (t=-3.148, -6.692, P<0.05), but increased V5 of both lungs (t=1.306, -2.027, P<0.05) compared with plans with Medium and Low fluence smoothing. Plans with low fluence smoothing irradiated higher dose to the V30 and Dmean to heart (t=0.411, 0.589, 0.013, P<0.05), but less V5 of the lungs (t=0.423, P<0.05) compared with plans with medium fluence smoothing.@*Conclusions@#All VMAT plans with 3 different fluence smoothing can meet the clinical requirements. VMAT plans optimized with high fluence smoothing are recommended in the treatment of patients middle and upper thoracic esophageal carcinoma.

Dosimetric comparison among volumetric modulate arc therapy plans with different fluence smoothing in the treatment of patients with middle and upper thoracic esophageal carcinoma / 中华放射医学与防护杂志

Objective To compare the dosimetric differences of volumetric modulated arc therapy (VMAT) plans optimized with 3 different fluence smoothing parameters using Monaco treatment planning system.Methods A total of 15 patients with middle and upper esophageal carcinoma were planned with Low fluence smoothing (Low),Medium fluence smoothing (Medium) and High fluence smoothing (High) during VMAT optimization.The dosimetric differences in D95,D conformity index (CI),homogeneity index (HI) of targets,dose volume histogram (DVH) of organs at risk (OARs),and monitor unit (MU) were compared.Results There were no significant differences in D95,D CI and HI of targets,as well as in V40 and D of the heart,V10,V20 and D of the lung,and segment number among plans optimized with different fluence smoothing techniques (P＞0.05).Plans with high fluence smoothing achieved less V30 of heart,Dmax of cord PRV (t=-2.167,-0.999,P＜0.05),lower MU (t=-3.148,-6.692,P＜O.05),but increased V5 of both lungs (t=1.306,-2.027,P＜O.05)compared with plans with Medium and Low fluence smoothing.Plans with low fluence smoothing irradiated higher dose to the V30 and D to heart (t=O.411,0.589,0.013,P＜0.05),but less V5 of the lungs (t=O.423,P＜0.05) compared with plans with medium fluence smoothing.Conclusions All VMAT plans with 3 different fluence smoothing can meet the clinical requirements.VMAT plans optimized with high fluence smoothing are recommended in the treatment of patients middle and upper thoracic esophageal carcinoma.

A Digital Filtering Method for Eliminating DC Offset in Ambulatory ECG Signals / 中国医疗器械杂志

The amplifier is easy to saturation because of polarization voltage in ambulatory ECG acquisition. The traditional way is using analog high-pass filter to eliminate, but the output tends to have a residue. If upgrading high-pass filter cutoff frequency, it will lead to low frequency distortion of ECG signals. In this paper, a Savitzky-Golay (SG) smoothing filter has been designed by combining the single edge point and the polynomial order , which can fit the polarization voltage components of ECG signals, filter useful components and get drift-free ECG signals by using the subtraction algorithm. The results of ECG filtering experiment verify the feasibility of the SG smoothing filter, and show the filtered ECG signal without any losses of useful components.

Prediction and analysis of death of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou based on time series model / 中华疾病控制杂志

Objective To analyze the death trend of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou and establish the time series model to predict the mortality and incidence of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou in 2019. Methods Descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the mortality of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou from January 2010 to December 2018. SPSS 21.0 software was used to construct time series analysis model, selecting the best model and predict the mortality of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou in 2019. Results A total of 1 650 deaths of children under 5 years old were reported in Lanzhou from 2010 to 2018. The number of deaths reported by boys and girls was 871 and 774 respectively, with an average annual mortality rate of 6.23‰. In recent years, the overall mortality rate of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou had declined. The majority of deaths among children under 5 years old were neonates, accounting for 65.27%. Simple seasonal model was the best model by comparing different models. The model could well fit the monthly death cases of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou from 2010 to 2018. It is predicted that the total number of deaths of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou will be 140 in 2019, which is similar to the number of deaths in 2018. Conclusions The mortality rate of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou is decreasing year by year. Simple seasonal model can better reflect the mortality trend of children under 5 years old in Lanzhou and make short-term prediction.

Predictive study on school absences due to illness with seasonal exponential smoothing method / 中华疾病控制杂志

Objective To establish a suitable exponential smoothing prediction model for school absentees due to illness, to discuss its application value for predicting school absences due to illness, and to provide a basis for early warning of absence due to illness. Methods Numbers of schools absences by year and month due to illness in 30 primary schools from November 2015 to June 2017 were collected from symptom monitoring system of border county, southern Yunnan and Simple seasonal model, Winters addition model and Winters multiplication model were used to build simulation. The data of July 2017 to December 2017 were used for model validation. The three models were overall compared and evaluated through indicator analysis, statistical analysis and residual diagram analysis. The best model was selected to predict school absences due to illness from January 2018 to March 2018. Results Simple seasonal model, Winters addition model and Winters multiplication model were used to fit the variation trend of number of school absences due to illness in time series. The root mean square error (RMSE) of three models were 445.11, 420.99 and 258.75; R2adj were 0.72, 0.72 and 0.77; R2 were 0.92, 0.93 and 0.98; P values of Ljung-Box Q were 0.54, 0.43 and 0.21. As for prediction method linear trend, Alpha were 0.999, 1.000 and 0.298. The average relative error between predicted value and actual value was 9.62%, 21.90% and 7.52%. Conclusion Winters multiplication model has practical value to predict school absence due to illness and provide scientific basis for early identification of abnormal signals.

Trends of reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China from 2007 to 2017: an exponential smoothing time series analysis

BACKGROUND@#The main objective of this study was to describe the temporal distribution of monthly reported human brucellosis cases in mainland China and develop an appropriate time series model for short-term extrapolation forecast.@*METHODS@#Surveillance data of the monthly reported human brucellosis cases occurring from April 1, 2007, to March 31, 2017, in mainland China were obtained. The spectrum analysis was first adopted to find the cyclic and seasonal features, the existence of the seasonality and trend was determined by exponential smoothing method and the seasonal-trend decomposition. The candidate models of exponential smoothing included the additive model and multiplicative model; R was selected as the indicator for the selection of candidate model, and the stability of the model was verified by adjusting the training data and test data set. Finally, the extrapolations of monthly incident human brucellosis cases in 2017 were made.@*RESULTS@#From April 1, 2007, to March 31, 2017, a total of 435,108 cases of Brucellosis occurred in mainland China were reported, with an average of 3626 cases per month and a standard deviation of 1834 cases. The R of the exponential smoothing method that based on additive model increased steadily from 0.927 to 0.949 with the increase of the data volume. Ten of 12 actual values fell in the confidence interval of predicted value.@*CONCLUSIONS@#Human brucellosis cases peaked during the months from March to August in mainland China, with clear seasonality. The exponential smoothing based on the additive model method could be effectively used in the time series analysis of human brucellosis in China. Control methods, such as vaccination, quarantine, elimination of infected animals, and good hygiene within the production cycle, should be strengthened with paying more attention to the seasonality. Further research is warranted to explore the drivers behind the seasonality.

Acupuncture with smoothing liver and regulatingfor post-stroke slow transit constipation and its gastrointestinal hormone level / 中国针灸

<p><b>OBJECTIVE</b>To compare the efficacy between acupuncture with smoothing liver and regulatingand lactulose for post-stroke slow transit constipation(STC) and to explore the mechanism.</p><p><b>METHODS</b>Sixty patients were randomized into an acupuncture group and a medication group,30 cases in each one. Based on the comprehensive stroke unit care,acupuncture with smoothing liver and regulatingwas used at Danzhong(CV 17),Qihai(CV 6),Tianshu(ST 25),Neiguan(PC 6),Gongsun(SP 4) and Taichong(LR 3) in the acupuncture group,once a day. Lactulose oral liquid was taken at a draught in the morning in the medication group,20 to 30 mL a time,once a day. The study period was 11 weeks,including 1-week baseline evaluation,6-week treatment and 4-week follow-up. We recorded the time of the first independent defecation,constipation symptom score,and gastrointestinal hormone level,including somatostatin(SS),motilin(MTL),P substance(SP) and vasoactive intestinal peptide(VIP). Also,the side effects were recorded at any time.</p><p><b>RESULTS</b>The time of the first independent defecation was (30.18±16.14) h in the acupuncture group,which was significantly different from (43.22±28.42) h in the medication group(<0.05). The constipation scores after 6-week treatment and at follow-up were lower than those before treatment in the two groups (all<0.05),with better results in the acupuncture group(both<0.05). MTL and SP increased,as well as SS and VIP decreased after treatment in the two groups(all<0.05). The changes were better in the acupuncture group(all<0.05). The side effect was not observed in the two groups.</p><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b>Acupuncture with smoothing liver and regulatingachieves better effect than lactulose for post-stroke STC in terms of efficacy onset,extent,and long term. The mechanism may relate to increasing excitatory regulatory peptide and reducing inhibitory regulatory peptide.</p>