Desempeño del sistema de vigilancia colombiano durante la pandemia de COVID-19: evaluación rápida de los primeros 50 días / Performance of the Colombian surveillance system during the COVID-19 pandemic: A rapid evaluation of the first 50 days

Introducción. La pandemia de COVID es un desafío para la vigilancia en salud pública y una oportunidad para evaluar sus fortalezas y debilidades en aras de mejorar la respuesta. Objetivo. Evaluar el desempeño del sistema de vigilancia en salud pública colombiano durante los primeros 50 días de la pandemia de COVID-19 en el país. Materiales y métodos. Se analizaron los datos publicados entre el 6 de marzo y el 24 de abril de 2020 por el Instituto Nacional de Salud y la Organización Mundial de Salud (OMS). Se consideraron en la evaluación: i) la calidad de los datos según la ley de Benford y ii) la oportunidad de la información, medida como la diferencia en fechas entre los datos generados en el Instituto Nacional de Salud y los recogidos en el informe situacional de la OMS. La variabilidad en el cumplimiento de la ley de Benford se evaluó con los valores de p en las pruebas de razón del logaritmo de la verosimilitud, ji al cuadrado o exacta de Moreno. Resultados. Hasta el 24 de abril hubo 4.881 casos de COVID-19 en Colombia. En la mayoría de los primeros 50 días se cumplió la ley de Benford, excepto en los primeros días de la epidemia. La diferencia entre los informes del Instituto Nacional de Salud y la OMS ha dependido, en gran medida, de la diferencia en los horarios de cierre de la información. Conclusión. En general, el sistema de vigilancia en salud pública colombiano cumplió con la ley de Benford, lo cual sugiere que hubo calidad en los datos. En futuros estudios que comparen el desempeño de los departamentos y distritos se podrá mejorar el diagnóstico de la vigilancia en salud pública del país.

Introduction: The COVID pandemic is a challenge for public health surveillance and an opportunity to assess its strengths and weaknesses to improve the response. Objective: To evaluate the performance of the Colombian public health surveillance system during the first 50 days of the COVID-19 pandemic in the country. Materials and methods: We analyzed the data published between March 6 and April 24, 2020, by the Instituto Nacional de Salud and the World Health Organization (WHO). We evaluated: i) the quality of the data according to the fulfillment of Benford's law, and ii) the timeliness of the information measured as the difference in dates between the data generated by the Instituto Nacional de Salud and WHO's situational reports. We assessed the fulfillment of Benford's law using the p values of the log-likelihood ratio, the chi square or Moreno's exact tests. Results: Until April 24 there were 4,881 cases of COVID-19 in Colombia. During most of the first 50 days of the pandemic, Benford's law was fulfilled except the first days of the epidemic. The difference between Instituto Nacional de Salud and WHO reports largely depends on the different reporting times. Conclusion: In general, the Colombian public health surveillance system fulfilled Benford's law suggesting that there was quality in the data. Future studies comparing the performance of the departments and districts will improve the diagnosis of the Colombian surveillance system.

Evaluación comparativa de la vigilancia en salud pública de COVID-19 en Colombia: primer semestre / Benchmarking of public health surveillance of COVID-19 in Colombia: First semester

Introducción. La vigilancia en salud pública y las decisiones sanitarias recomendadas son fundamentales para el manejo adecuado de la pandemia de SARS-CoV-2. Objetivo. Hacer una evaluación comparativa del desempeño de los departamentos colombianos de este atributo del sistema de vigilancia con base en la calidad de los datos y construir la clasificación nacional según el desempeño. Materiales y métodos. Se analizaron los casos acumulados publicados por el Instituto Nacional de Salud entre el 6 de marzo y el 1° de septiembre de 2020. Para la comparación, los análisis consideraron el día en que se diagnosticó el primer caso como la primera fecha de análisis de cada departamento. El cumplimiento de la ley de Benford se evaluó con los valores de p en las pruebas de razón del logaritmo de la verosimilitud o ji al cuadrado. Se completó el análisis del atributo de calidad del dato con la letalidad observada en cada departamento, y se estableció la clasificación según el desempeño. Resultados. La ciudad de Bogotá y el departamento del Valle del Cauca tuvieron un desempeño óptimo en la vigilancia en salud pública durante todo el periodo observado. Los datos sugieren que los departamentos de Antioquia, Nariño y Tolima tuvieron una buena contención y una adecuada vigilancia en salud pública después de la apertura económica iniciada el 1° de junio de 2020. Conclusión. Se obtuvo una clasificación de los departamentos y de Bogotá según la calidad de los datos de vigilancia en salud pública. Los mejores cinco entes territoriales pueden ser casos de estudio para determinar los elementos asociados con el buen desempeño.

Introduction: Public health surveillance together with good sanitary decisions is essential for the proper management of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Objective: To compare the performance of Colombian departments based on the quality of the data and to build the national ranking. Materials and methods: We analyzed the accumulated cases published between March 6 and September 1, 2020, by the Instituto Nacional de Salud. To achieve comparability, the analyses considered the day the first case was diagnosed as the first analysis date for each department. The fulfillment of Benford's law was assessed with p-values in the log-likelihood ratio or chi-square tests. The analysis was completed with the lethality observed in each department and then the performance ranking was established. Results: Bogotá and Valle del Cauca had optimal public health surveillance performance all along. The data suggest that Antioquia, Nariño, and Tolima had good containment and adequate public health surveillance after the economic opening beginning on June 1, 2020. Conclusion: We obtained the ranking of the departments regarding the quality of public health surveillance data. The best five departments can be case studies to identify the elements associated with good performance.

Epidemiological characteristics and pathogenic analysis of bacillary dysentery in Zhengzhou city from 2004 to 2016 / 天津医药

Objective To understand the epidemic and etiological characteristics of bacillary dysentery and provide scientific evidence for the prevention strategies. Methods The surveillance data and serotyping of bacillary dysentery in Zhengzhou city from 2004 to 2016 were analyzed by descriptive epidemiological method.Results A total of 29 284 cases of bacillary dysentery were reported in Zhengzhou from 2004-2016.The average annual incidence was 31.28 per 100 000 and decreased annually(χ2=103.60,P<0.001).The peak season was from May to October.The incidence was higher in city than that of county,and male was higher than female.The majority of the bacillary dysentery cases was children under 3 years old, and scattered children were the main population at risk.A total of 385 Shigella strains were isolated and identified from 2004 to 2016, and 72.35% (280 strains) of strains were Shigella flexneri. F2a subtype was dominated, but the detective rate of Shigella sonnei was increased gradually. Conclusion Bacillary dysentery is still one of important infectious diseases in Zhengzhou,comprehensive measures should be taken to decrease the incidence including health education in targeted area and people in epidemic season.

Central limit theorem: the cornerstone of modern statistics / 대한마취과학회지

According to the central limit theorem, the means of a random sample of size, n, from a population with mean, µ, and variance, σ², distribute normally with mean, µ, and variance, σ²/n. Using the central limit theorem, a variety of parametric tests have been developed under assumptions about the parameters that determine the population probability distribution. Compared to non-parametric tests, which do not require any assumptions about the population probability distribution, parametric tests produce more accurate and precise estimates with higher statistical powers. However, many medical researchers use parametric tests to present their data without knowledge of the contribution of the central limit theorem to the development of such tests. Thus, this review presents the basic concepts of the central limit theorem and its role in binomial distributions and the Student's t-test, and provides an example of the sampling distributions of small populations. A proof of the central limit theorem is also described with the mathematical concepts required for its near-complete understanding.

Monitoring the Paraguayan epidemiological dengue surveillance system (2009-2011) using Benford's law

ABSTRACT Introducción. El dengue es la principal arbovirosis en el mundo. En Paraguay reapareció en 1988-1989, y en el 2011 se produjo uno de los mayores brotes epidémicos. Objetivo. Evaluar el desempeño del sistema de vigilancia epidemiológica del dengue en Paraguay entre 2009 y 2011. Materiales y métodos. Se hizo un estudio ecológico basado en datos secundarios de la vigilancia epidemiológica. Con base en la distribución esperada según la ley de Benford, se analizaron los casos notificados de la enfermedad; para tal fin, se usaron los primeros y segundos dígitos de los registros globales y estratificados por regiones, estaciones, densidad poblacional, indicadores de las condiciones de la vivienda y número de cabezas de ganado bovino. Resultados. El sistema de vigilancia epidemiológica se desempeñó mejor durante los periodos no epidémicos, y en los departamentos donde existen mejores condiciones de vivienda y pocas cabezas de ganado bovino. Conclusión. Dadas las diferencias de desempeño, se recomendó que el sistema mantenga la alerta incluso cuando no se espere un mayor número de casos. El método propuesto para evaluar la notificación de casos es fácil de transferir al personal operativo.

RESUMEN Introduction: Dengue is the most widespread arbovirus worldwide. In Paraguay, it reappeared in 1988-1989, with one of the largest epidemic outbreaks occurring in 2011. Objective: To evaluate the performance of the dengue epidemiological surveillance system in Paraguay between 2009 and 2011. Materials and methods: We conducted an ecological study with secondary epidemiological surveillance data. We analyzed notified cases of the disease based on the distribution expected by Benford's law. To this end, we used the first and second digits from the global records stratified by region, season, population density, indicators of housing conditions and heads of cattle. Results: The epidemiological surveillance system performed better during non-epidemic periods and in the states with better housing conditions and fewer heads of cattle. Conclusion: Given that a difference in the performance existed, we recommended that the system remains operating at the same high alert level even during periods when fewer cases are expected. The technology used by the method proposed to monitor the notification of cases is easy to transfer to operational staff.

Modelización del tiempo de hospitalización en lesiones por tránsito / Modelling length of hospital stay in motor victims

Objetivo. Analizar los factores sociodemográficos y de las lesiones causadas por accidentes de tránsito que influyen en el tiempo de hospitalización de las víctimas. Material y métodos. Muestra transversal de 17 932 eventos de tránsito ocurridos en España entre 2000 y 2007. Se estimaron diferentes modelos de regresión para identificar y medir la influencia de los factores. Resultados. Los hombres tienen un tiempo medio de hospitalización 41% mayor al de las mujeres. La duración de la estancia hospitalaria media aumenta cinco veces cuando existen fracturas. Las lesiones en las extremidades inferiores, la cabeza y el abdomen se asocian con mayores duraciones hospitalarias. Conclusiones. El sexo de la víctima, su edad, la posición que ocupaba en el vehículo en el momento del evento, el tipo de vehículo causante y el tipo y zona de la lesión influyen significativamente en la duración de la estancia hospitalaria.

Objective. To analyze which socio-demographic and other factors related to motor injuries affect the length of hospital recovery stay. Materials and methods. In the study a sample of 17 932 motor accidents was used. All the crashes occurred in Spain between 2000 and 2007. Different regression models were fitted to data to identify and measure the impact of a set of explanatory regressors. Results. Time of hospital stay for men is on average 41% larger than for women. When the victim has a fracture as a consequence of the accident, the mean time of hospital stay is multiplied by five. Injuries located in lower extremities, the head and abdomen are associated with greater hospitalization lengths. Conclusions. Gender, age and type of victim, as well as the location and nature of injuries, are found to be factors that have significant impact on the expected length of hospital stay.

Bioestatísticas: conceitos fundamentais e aplicações práticas / Biostatistics: fundamental concepts and practical applications

A bioestatística ganha crescente importância e relevância nos últimos anos, sendo um dos principais pilares da investigação científica. Possui uma série de conceitos e regras que devem ser bem compreendidos para se realizar ou analisar um artigo. Nesta revisão são abordadas algumas das principais ferramentas utilizadas nos trabalhos de interesse da área oftalmológica, suas aplicações e limitações.

The biostatistics has gained significant importance in recent years, being one of the mainstays of current scientific research. It has a series of concepts and rules that must be understood to carry out or analyze an article. In this review we will discuss some of main tools utilized in works of interest in ophthalmology, its applications and limitations.

Leishmaniasis cutánea americana en Venezuela: un análisis clínico epidemiológico a nivel nacional y por entidad federal, 1988-2007 / American cutaneous leishmaniasis in Venezuela: a clinical and epidemiological analysis at a national level and by federal entity, 1988-2007

Se describen las características epidemiológicas generales, junto a algunos aspectos clínico-inmunológicos, de las diferentes formas clínicas de leishmaniasis cutánea en Venezuela. Esto se logró a través de un estudio descriptivo retrospectivo de la base de datos del registro nacional de leishmaniasis en el Instituto de Biomedicina. La información fue analizada con EpiInfo 3.5.1, SPSS 11.0 y Excel. 47.762 casos de las diferentes formas clínicas de leishmaniasis cutánea fueron diagnosticados en el periodo 1988-2007, esto es 2.388 casos por año, con una tasa promedio anual de 10,5 por 100.000 habitantes. Predomina en sexo masculino con una razón de masculinidad que oscila entre 1,2 y 1,8. Casos en todas las edades, con predominio en el grupo de 15 a 24 años, edad promedio de 28 años. En cuanto a la ocupación 24,58 % corresponde a personas del sector agropecuario, seguido de estudiantes (21,40%) y Oficios del Hogar (18,47%). Se han registrado casos en todas las entidades federales, observándose regiones como los estados andinos (Trujillo y Mérida) con tasas superiores a 30 por 100.000 habitantes. La distribución según forma clínica fue: 97,94% (46.778) leishmaniasis cutánea localizada; 0,72% (346) leishmaniasis cutánea intermedia; 1,11% (531) leishmaniasis cutánea mucosa y 0,22% (107) leishmaniasis cutánea difusa. Las características clínicas e inmunológicas estudiadas variaron de acuerdo con las diferentes formas clínicas descritas. En conclusión, se hace una descripción clínico-epidemiológica de la leishmaniasis cutánea americana en Venezuela en base a los datos del registro de casos del Programa Nacional de Control de la Leishmaniasis. Esto sirve de apoyo al desarrollo de futuras investigaciones y para la mejora del propio registro con los consecuentes beneficios que ello puede traer al programa de control.

The general epidemiological characteristics are described, together with some clinical and immunological aspects of the different clinical forms of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Venezuela. This was accomplished through a descriptive retrospective study of the leishmaniasis national registry database of the Institute of Biomedicine. The information was analyzed with EpiInfo 3.5.1, SPSS 11.0 and Excel. 47,762 cases of different clinical forms of cutaneous leishmaniasis were diagnosed during the period 1988-2007, i.e. 2,388 cases per year, with an average annual rate of 10.5 per 100,000 inhabitants. It is predominant in males, with a sex ratio of between 1.2 and 1.8. There are cases in all ages, with predominance in the 15 to 24 years group, average age 28 years. In terms of occupation, 24.58% are people of the agricultural sector, followed by students (21.40%) and housewives (18.47%). Cases have been registered in all the federal entities, observing regions such as the Andean States (Trujillo and Merida) with rates above 30 per 100,000 inhabitants. Distribution according to clinical form was: 97.94% (46,778) localized cutaneous leishmaniasis; 0.72% (346) intermediate cutaneous leishmaniasis, 1.11% (531) mucocutaneous leishmaniasis and 0.22% (107) diffused cutaneous leishmaniasis. The clinical and immunological characteristics examined varied according to the different clinical forms described. In conclusion, a clinical and epidemiological description is made of the American cutaneous leishmaniasis in Venezuela, based on the data of the register of cases of the Leishmaniasis Control National Program. This serves to support the development of future research and improve the register with the consequent benefits is can bring to the control program.

Investigation on the space structure of plague natural foci in the Sanjiangyuan area in Qinghai Province / 中国地方病学杂志

Objective To investigate the space structure of plague natural foci in the area of Lantsang, Yellow and Yangtse River in Qinghai Province to provide references for making decisions to eontrol the occurrence of human plague. Methods Data was collected from the survey on natural foci and surveillance of plague from 1954 to 2006 and descriptive epidemiological method was used to analyze the data. Results Marmata hirnalayana and Microtus fuscua natural foci were known in Sanjiangyuan area. Callopsylla dolabris, Oropsylla silantiewi, Citellophilus sparsilis and Amphipsylla tuta were vectors; Microtus fuscus plague natural foci was in a range of about 9500 km2, distributing in Zhenqin Town, Chengduo County. Marmata himalayana plague natural foci distributed over 13 countries, a range nearly 107 000 km2. By the end of 2006, 450 strains of Yersinia pestis were detected and separated from 6 kinds of rodents, 6 kinds of carnivora, 3 kinds of artiodactyls and 9 insects vectors. Between 1960 and 2006, 238 cases and 134 deaths from plague were reported. Most human plague cases occurred in the months from May to November and usually presented as one of three primary forms-bubonic 17.23%(41/238), septicemic 16.81% (40/238), pneumonic 61.34% (146/238) and other types 4.62% (11/238). However, the first epidemic plague case was mainly the glandular plague. Conclusions Date suggested that plague is still a critical public health problem in Sanjiangyuan area, against which countermaeasure needs to be strengthened in the main epidemic areas. More scientific researches on plague should be carried out. Surveillance networks of reporting suspected plague have been established and reduce the number of human plague cases.

¿es el letargo nn signo frecuente en la invaginación intestinal? / Is lethargy a frequent sign in the intestinal intussusception?

Aunque el letargo ha sido considerado desde hace décadas un signo frecuente de invaginación, no aparece entre los elementos clásicos de esta entidad y algunos opinan que es un signo inusual y de aparición tardía. Con el objetivo de determinar la frecuencia conque el letargo ha estado presente en los niños con invaginación y la etapa de la enfermedad en que se ha constatado, se realizó un estudio descriptivo de serie de casos de los pacientes menores de dos años que acudieron con invaginación intestinal al Hospital Pediátrico de Camagüey entre enero de 1995 y diciembre de 2005. Se estudiaron las variables: edad, síntomas y signos, asociaciones clínicas al ingreso, y relación entre la presencia de letargo con el tiempo de evolución de la invaginación. Los métodos empleados fueron estadística descriptiva y distribución de frecuencia. Se constató el letargo en 76 de los 121 pacientes (62.80 %). La asociación de letargo, dolor cólico, vómitos y sangramiento rectal fue la más frecuente (33.88 %). El letargo estuvo presente en 59 niños durante las primeras 24h (77.63 %), incluyendo 35 pacientes en las primeras 12h (46.05%). El letargo debe ser considerado uno de los signos importantes de invaginación por la elevada frecuencia conque se presenta; en la mayoría de los pacientes estudiados ha sido evidente en fases tempranas de la enfermedad (menos de 24 h de evolución). En niños con letargo de causa no explicada, debe tenerse presente el diagnóstico de invaginación, sobre todo cuando se acompaña de otros elementos clínicos sugestivos de la enfermedad.

Eventhoug lethargy has been considered for decades a frequent sign of intussusception, not appear among the classic elements of this entity and someones express that is an unusual sign and late onset. With the aim to determine the frequency of lethargy and the stage in the course of the disease, a descriptive case series study of children less than 2 years old with intussusception was performed at the Paediatric Hospital of Camagüey, from January 1995 to December 2005. Age, symptoms and signs, clinical associations at admission and the relation between the presence of lethargy and the evolution time of the intussusception were the studied variables. Descriptive statistic and frequency distribution were the methods used. Lethargy was present in 76 children (62.80 %). The clinical association of lethargy, colic pain, vomiting and rectal is bleeding were the most frequent (33.88 %). Lethargy was found in 59 patients during the first 24 hours (77.63 %), including 35 patients in the first 12 hours (46.05%). Lethargy should be considered as one of the most important signs of intussusception due to the high frequency of presentation, in the majority of the cases has been evident in early stages of the disease (less than 24 hours of evolution). In children with lethargy of not explained cause, intussusception diagnosis should be present, especially when appear with other suggestive clinical elements of the disease.

Cluster Analysis of Syndrome Patterns of Osteoporosis in Traditional Chinese Medicine / 广州中医药大学学报

【Objective】 The characteristics of syndrome patterns of osteoporosis(OP) in traditional Chinese medicine (TCM) were investigated by cluster analysis,thus to supply evidences for the prevention and treatment of OP.【Methods】The data of 246 OP patients collected by four diagnostic methods were classified into items by cluster analysis.Thenthe principal component analysis was usedtosummarizethe TCMsyndrome patters of OPbyanalyzing the representativeness of eachitem.【Results】Forty-sevenitems were obtained after cluster analysis,andtheitems of short of breath withreluctancetotalk,lassitude and weakness,soreness of thelower back,white coating,vertigo,pale and enlargedtongue had a higher incidences.Whenthe items of OP were classified into four patterns of deficiency of liver and kidney yin,deficiency of spleen and kidney yang,deficiency of Qi and blood,and Qi stagnation and blood stasis,the patterns distribution was clear and had a good representiveness.The patterns of deficiency of liver and kidney yin,and deficiency of spleen and kidney yang had higher incidences of 34.7 %and 30.1 %respectively.【Conclusion】OP classifiedintofour patterns of deficiency of liver and kidney yin,deficiency of spleen and kidney yang,deficiency of Qi and blood,and Qi stagnation and blood stasis is practical in clinic,and most of OPpatients have the manifestations of kidney deficiency.