Assessment of the Surveillance Interval at 1 Year after Curative Treatment in Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Risk Stratification

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Guidelines recommend surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) recurrence at 3-month intervals during the first year after curative treatment and 6-month intervals thereafter in all patients. This strategy does not reflect individual risk of recurrence. We aimed to stratify risk of recurrence to optimize surveillance intervals 1 year after treatment. METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed 1,316 HCC patients treated with resection/radiofrequency ablation at Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/ A. In patients without 1-year recurrence under 3-monthly surveillance, a new model for recurrence was developed using backward elimination methods: training (n=582)/ validation cohorts (n=291). Overall survival (OS) according to risk stratified by the new model was compared according to surveillance intervals: 3-monthly versus 6-monthly (n=401) after lead time bias correction and propensity-score matching analyses. RESULTS: Among patients without 1-year recurrence, age and international normalized ratio values were significant factors for recurrence (hazard ratio [HR], 1.03; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.00 to 1.03; p=0.009 and HR, 5.63; 95% CI, 2.24 to 14.18; p < 0.001; respectively). High-risk patients stratified by the new model showed significantly higher recurrence rates than low-risk patients in the validation cohort (HR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.18 to 2.53; p=0.005). After propensity-score matching between the 3-monthly and 6-monthly surveillance groups, OS in high-risk patients under 3-monthly surveillance was significantly higher than that under 6-monthly surveillance (p=0.04); however, OS in low-risk patients under 3-monthly surveillance was not significantly different from that under 6-monthly surveillance (p=0.17). CONCLUSIONS: In high-risk patients, 3-monthly surveillance can prolong survival compared to 6-monthly surveillance. However, in low-risk patients, 3-monthly surveillance might not be beneficial for survival compared to 6-monthly surveillance.

Risk factors of polyp recurrence after colorectal polypectomy / 中华消化内镜杂志

Objective To explore the relationship between polyp features at first-time colonoscopy and the recurrence, and to analyze the risk factors of recurrence at different time points of follow-up. Methods The data of 614 patients undergoing colorectal polypectomy between May 2008 and May 2016 were retrospectively analyzed. Patients were classified into 3 groups according to the characteristics and polyp features at first-time colonoscopy. The risk factors influencing polyp recurrence at different time points during follow up were analyzed. Results Univariate analysis showed that age ≥70 years, polyp′s diameter ≥0.5 cm,the number of polyps >2 and distribution throughout colon were risk factors for recurrence. In multivariate models,the number of polyps at baseline was the only significant predictor for recurrence(OR=2.36,95%CI:1.06-5.25). All of 614 patients underwent 6-87 months surveillance colonoscopy. The total recurrence rate was 58.6%(360/614). During four different surveillance intervals including 6-24 months,>24-36 months, >36-48 months, and >48-87 months,the cumulative recurrence rate of high-risk group was 60.1%,65.7%,80.7%,and 83.8%,respectively,whereas,that of low-risk group was 22.7%,40.0%, 53.8%,and 65.4%, respectively. There was a significant difference between the two groups(P=0.00). Conclusion The number of initial colorectal polyps is useful for predicting the risk of polyp recurrence,and the rate of polyp recurrence during surveillance increases with the passage of time. The cumulative recurrence rate of high-risk group after polypectomy is significantly higher than that of low-risk group.

Analysis of colonoscopy surveillance in 5-year follow-up after polypectomy of non-advanced colorectal adenoma / 中华消化内镜杂志

Objective To assess the results of colonoscopy surveillance in 5 years after polypectomy of non-advanced colorectal adenoma and to identify its risk factors. Methods Patients undergoing colonosco-py and followed up with colonoscopy within 5 years between January 2003 and December 2013 were retro-spectively analyzed.No substance or only small quantity of clear water left in the intestinal tract and colono-scopes accessing ileocecus were regarded as complete examination. The initial colonoscopy was regarded as the baseline colonoscopy. Patients with non-advanced adenomas were assigned to the case group and those without were to the control group. Data of clinical characteristics and colorectal findings were estimated and risk factors were identified. Results A total of 828 patients were included,374 patients in the case group and 454 in the control group on baseline colonoscopy.The case group had a low incidence of advanced adeno-mas at a 1 to 5 years interval when compared with the control group,both with adequate baseline examination [1. 5%(5/ 326)VS 2. 2%(9/ 408),P = 0. 51]. The detection rates of advanced adenomas on follow-up colonoscopy at 1 to 3 years and 3 to 5 years in case group were 1. 7%(3/ 178)and 1. 4%(2/ 148),respec-tively(P>0. 05).Regression analysis showed age≥50 years old and being male were the independent risk factors for advanced adenomas recurrence within 5 years follow-up. No colon cancer was found in 828 patients during the follow-up. Conclusion Surveillance colonoscopy intervals within 5 years is of little benefit to pa-tients who had adequate polypectomy. Too early reexaminations due to concerns about advanced adenomas recurrence can be avoided.